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December 4, 2008 5:54 PM

Qi Lu: The $44.6 Billion Man



News Brief. He might have been had Microsoft bought Yahoo. Instead, for the meager sum of a new salary, the former Yahoo exec will lead Microsoft's Online Services Business.

If the Microsoft division wasn't doing do badly, I would say that Qi Lu picked a lousy job at an awful time. But from the bottom, Microsoft has got little place to go but up. Global economic recession provides another place for him to point a finger of blame should the Online Services Business fail to deliver under his leadership. Recession is opportunity to undercut ad competitors. Like, Yahoo and Google. Lucky Qi Lu, Microsoft didn't lose search share in October, according to ComScore.

arrow.gifGOT A TIP OR RUMOR?

To bean counters, Qi Lu was just another asset, albeit an important one, to be had from Microsoft's first-quarter unsolicited bid for Yahoo. Now Microsoft has him, without paying out $44.6 billion. He's valuable, and high expectations come with him. It has been known for more than a week that Qi Lu was headed to Microsoft; his role was suspected but not known.

As Qi Lu comes in—he starts Jan. 5—another search/advertising exec goes out. Brian McAndrews, senior vice president of Microsoft's Advertiser & Publisher Solutions Group and former aQuantive chief executive, is leaving Microsoft. I love these craftily worded Microsoft press releases: Brian will "transition out of Microsoft," which might be a polite way of saying "pushed out," seeing as how his exiting role will be "consultative."

I wondered how long Brian would last at Microsoft. aQuantive was never going to be under Microsoft what it was as an independent business. He's definitely a loss, particularly considering just how much aQuantive contributes to Online Services Business revenue.

search1008.jpg

I'll need some time sorting out exactly what all the changes mean, as Qi Lu is just one among many. Microsoft also promoted several executives, which raises some questions about who's really running things. Qi Lu may be a big shot Ph.D and former Yahoo search executive, but he also is an outsider taking on an important but money-losing Microsoft division. He will work closely with senior vice presidents Scott Howe, Yusuf Mehdi and Satya Nadella. I wonder just how much authority he will have to share with underlings.

I'm still watching Yusuf, who has been a stuck star rising for some time. His work on Internet Explorer (in 1990s) and MSN (in the 2000s) was exceptional. He was part of the team that brought MSN to profitability for nearly two years in 2004-2005, before Microsoft launched Windows Live and later created the Online Services Business. He's a talent underutilized by Microsoft, one of several among the vice president ranks.

I wish Qi Lu good luck. He'll need lots more than luck to turn around Microsoft's Online Services Group. Right now, the only way to Google is through his former employer. From a purely personal perspective, his timing is right, if hiring includes Microsoft shares. The company's stock closed at $19.11 today, hugely undervalued and sure to go up someday.

[Please send your tips or rumors to watchtips at live.com].

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Comments (22)

Mikey :


Qi didn't do that good of a way at Yahoo.
But on the other hand, Satya sucks even worse than him. Microsoft is struck on the bottom - I suspect that Oct 09 won't be any better. Probably 9% share.

meager "some?" [sic]

--rj

I must say, search results in the new Windows Live Hotmail is exceptional. I like how they have also separated the Search fields for Windows Live Search from Windows Live Hotmail. Some good stuff is happening. Maybe I do need to take a second look at Windows Live Search.

Paul :

"Brian will "transition out of Microsoft," which might be a polite way of saying pushed out seeing as how his exiting role will be "consultative.""

I read that as quit after not getting the top job, but doing so in an amicable and classy way.

Bob :

It stuns me how little you know about Microsoft, considering you report on it.

Paul's observation is undoubtedly correct. Brian was a CEO of a company he managed to sell for $6B. There was no way he was going to accept not getting the top job -- being passed over meant that he would almost certainly never get any higher in the company than his current position. He's quitting and being, as Paul notes, classy and amicable about it. The timeline also suggests he was holding out for the top job and wasn't looking for another one, so he needs the time to find another job (maybe, as some have suggested, CEO of Yahoo).

Brian decided to transition out. Never having met the man, I don't know what his reasons would be. Maybe he was annoyed he didn't get the lead job; maybe he had other reasons. It was still his choice to leave - he wasn't "pushed out" and Steve Ballmer's official position (again, I've never actually met the guy so the official version is all I've got) is that he's sorry to see Brian go.

billybob :

I don't get it, the man who was at the helm of Yahoo! as it went down the toilet is somehow going to help matters?


As you mention, the revenue from the adverts is just as important as the search results themselves, Google has both done very well. Live results are getting better, but are still quite a long way behind Google.

smist08 :

It baffles me that AOL is still on this list. It must be discouraging to MS that they are only twice the search share of the pretty much dead AOL.

Phil :

Still chasing Google. That fight is over. Get over it and move on or be gone.

Goblin :

@Andre
I dont think it will make any difference how many times you say the words "Windows Live" in one post. Fact is it has lost the battle with Google and no deal with Yahoo or new employees will change that. Youre fighting a household name.
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Looking at the logs on my site, Im wondering if you used "Windows Live" to find it? ;)

Jay :

@Goblin

It was only about six years ago that Apple only had 3% of the personal computer market. Now, they're approaching 10%, which is a 200% gain. And, it could be said that Windows was and still is a household name. Certainly, M$ is fighting an uphill battle, but they do appear to be executing quite well these days. The first 1/2 of next year may reveal several announcements on which M$ will have established the foundation to compete with Apple and Google. As such, I would not be surprised by the following announcements:

Win7 ships by April/May and turns out to be exactly what Vista should have been, a well designed, simpler to use, and faster O/S
WM7 ships with Zune functionality and a highly compelling smartphone in terms of design and cost
M$ acquires Yahoo's search
M$ rebrands Windows Live to something with more cool factor and demonstrates parity with Google in terms of search relevance allowing them to further grow advertisement revenue and marketshare
M$ ships a Wiimote like remote for the xbox

A little further out, say end 2009, I look for M$ to be moving to acquire facebook, which is the #1 reason why I think M$ has decided not pursue an all out acquisition of Yahoo. M$ realizes facebook is quickly becoming the web 2.0 center of the social Internet.

Goblin :

@Jay,
Very true, and I have no experience in either marketing or product deployment, however IMO there are external factors at play which I believe severely hamper the progress of the MS product:
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1. The Microsoft brand name has taken (IMO) a major PR beating.
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2. Google is a household name.
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3. The loss of "faith" in MS products which has led to an increase in MAC/Linux.
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Completely agree that Windows is a household name, however with the Vista "issues" that, IMO has been its undoing. The issues of Vista are not discussed "over coffee with experts" the average user is more aware. I think in Windows case the household name has simply spread the bad feeling further.
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Next up you mention Zune. I cant and wont comment on the system because I really dont know enough about it.
What I will say (and ive said before) is that rightly or wrongly the market is swayed in the direction of fashionable products.
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I think in Zunes case MS greatly underestimated the "youth of today" and "fashion trends" and I think in Zunes case (and similar preripherals) the youth are the most important part of their customer base. Ask this of the average teenager or indeed under 30, what would you rather clip into your pocket? an Ipod or a Microsoft product? I cant see Microsoft having the same "street cred"
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Very interesting nonetheless.
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In regards to facebook, I cant comment. But what I will say is that a well known MS supporter here seems to suggest that Windows Live Wave 3 is being developed to be better than facebook, so Im wondering if MS will try and purchase facebook or as in the case of Google try to go into direct competition.

NickAL :

In my opinion Google has been successful because it can just be a simple serach engine.
Sure you can add lots of others features to the page, but if I wanted the news and weather, I'd got to a site providing that instead.

I feel Microsoft entered the market too late, Google already had a large market share and Windows Live doesn't really offer any new and exciting features that would persuade someone to change and use it instead.

And Goblin, I have heard rumours of Microsoft currently developing products for direct competition with FaceBook, kind of a Spaces revival. Doubt it will turn out well as with many of their attempts where they weren't there in the beginning or early on.

NickAL :

In my opinion Google has been successful because it can just be a simple search engine.
Sure you can add lots of others features to the page, but if I wanted the news and weather, I'd got to a site providing that instead.

I feel Microsoft entered the market too late, Google already had a large market share and Windows Live doesn't really offer any new and exciting features that would persuade someone to change and use it instead.

And Goblin, I have heard rumours of Microsoft currently developing products for direct competition with FaceBook, kind of a Spaces revival. Doubt it will turn out well as with many of their attempts where they weren't there in the beginning or early on.

NickAL :

Sorry about the double post.
It came up with a server error and re submitted.

billybob :

Microsoft is late to everything, it is their business model. I can only think if a few things that they were first to market with, but its only things like Microsoft Bob, the UMPC etc.


If Microsoft's stock is so undervalued, then why is the yield only 2.41%? The P/E is 10.5 which sounds about right (MSFT is not exactly a growth stock), for comparison other companies in non-banking sectors are paying around 5%, banking is paying >20%. Can someone explain why MSFT is so undervalued? Its not hard to find companies paying >20% in these troubled times, so why is 2.5% and no capital gain undervaluing the company? Seriously...

Goblin :

@NickAL :
Agreed.
It seems to me that MS come up with their good ideas after they see other people do it well. The shame is for MS in the past they could wield their financial power into action and get a result, its different now, and IMO whilst MS were busy trying to muscle in on every money making scheme they could, they failed to notice that better alternatives were eroding the products they already had.
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Microsoft IMO is "Jack of all trades, master of none" and unfortunately for them, the anti MS feelings appear global. See the below link from the excellent Boycott Novell site:
http://boycottnovell.com/2008/12/05/down-with-microsoft-children-protest/
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Anyone want to say that Microsoft has NOT got a PR problem?

Jay :

@Goblin

You made some good points. In my opinion, the main reason why non IT people have such a bad opinion about Vista is the Mac vs. PC ads. If these had not been as well received, Vista would be doing a lot better and would not have led to the "lose of faith" in M$ products. While not scientifically perfect, the Mojave experiment proved that Vista is vastly better than Joe Consure thinks it is. For example, I run Vista on a desktop with a 2.0 user experience rating and a HP laptop that pulls down a 3.7 rating using the 64-bit version. Both systems work very well, but my 2.0 system works better because of its 10K WD drive. And for the past year, I've had zero issues with Vista, which only cost me $73 for premium as an upgrade to W2KPro.

Bethatasitmay, to be successful in the PC arena, M$ has to do these things in 2009 beyond correcting the easy to point out issues with Vista and WM6.1:

They have to advertise WM7, W7, search, and online offerings on TV to the extent that Apple does.

Continue to work with the major PC manufacturers to not load software that's not needed. The out of the box experience has to continue to get better.

Work more closely with hardware manufacturers to create devices with compelling physical design features. From what I understand, WM7 is supposed to have a very cool and functional UI. With the extra delay, my guess is that most people are going to be extremely pleased with the level of quality, functionality, and reliability of WM7. I only hope M$' device partners deliver very compelling hardware at a reasonable price that is seen by many as being better than the iPhone.

Regarding the Zune, it's my understanding that version 3 of the software runs circles around Apple, so with this functionality built into a low cost, consumer centric M$ smartphone, they stand to have a real winner on their hands. Everyone realizes that consumers want easy texting, music, games, and web fast browsing.

As for facebook, I believe that M$' $240M initial investment was meant to lay the ground work for an eventual purchase, allowing Zuckerberg more time to prove he's a boy genius which it appears he's done. Moreover, it makes sense to make your current online offering more facebook like if you're planning to acquire the company in the next 12 months or so, providing an easier integration UI wise of the two platforms. For now, I think M$ is waiting to see how the whole facebook connect technology works out. If it quickly gains wide acceptance as a viable alternative to OpenID, then I would see M$ making its final move to acquire facebook very quickly. However, I don't think facebook today is worth anywhere near $15B.

I-Man :

It looks like the tides could be turning for Microsoft and their fight vs. Google. Microsoft has hired Yahoo's main search
engineer Qi Lu and will most likely partner or buy out Yahoo's search business. It looks like good things coming for MSFT
and all happening after the settlement with VCSY. Now this is also happening to help MSFT vs Google:

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/siliconalley/big-tech/2008_12_report_dell_dumping_googles_pre_installed_software_for_microsofts_dell.html

Goblin :

@Jay
I would tend to disagree about the ads. Whilst I dont believe they did anything for the image of MS, I dont believe they were detrimental. People were after a change, and thats what they were doing whilst going to alternatives. I think people today are clever, I think they see ads for what they are and they certainly understand technology more. I certainly see ads as one companies attempt to "get one over" on another company and I expect most people here do aswell. I choose products based on previous experience and word of mouth/research, not how much money a company has wasted on its advertising campaign.
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I dont think its unfair to say that the bad PR Vista got was deserved, and I think the problem with it was that it stung the average user worse than anyone as they had expectations of it that far exceeded what it delivered.
I dont know if that was because of XP being a pretty reliable OS for so many years or the whole host of promises and claims that were made by Microsoft. MS IMO made it worse by not admitting these issues at the first oportunity, and then continued that by claiming there was nothing wrong and Vista had been a success. Except for the MS-PR team, I dont think anyone believes that for a minute.
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The Mojave experiment IMO wasnt an experiment. Picture the scene, a disguised Vista running on the best specs (and obviously tested rigorously first) of course its going to get rave reviews, but as we have seen Mojave was very different to what users experienced when they took Vista out of the box and installed at home, wasnt it?
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Jay said "Regarding the Zune, it's my understanding that version 3 of the software runs circles around Apple, "
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It may well do, but since I (nor anyone I know) has any real experience or knowledge of Zune then its a little academic. Even if Zune is the greatest thing ever, its certainly not the fashionable product that I see people in my area rush out to buy, thats the problem.
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Historically the best spec has not been the most popular, and you only have to look back a few years when Atari released an advanced console for the time (the Jaguar) and the thing crashed and burned.
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Same could be said for the PS3. Streets ahead of the WII in terms of specs, but we all know Nintendo has won that particular battle.
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When you said "from what I understand, WM7 is supposed to have a very cool and functional UI."
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I, and many others on the net were burned with WM in the past. Its an experience that I wont ever repeat and again, MS products are IMO the poor mans version of the fashionable (and IMO more reliable) alternatives. I certainly wont take a risk on WM again.
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I also think MS will be in for a shock, should they make a move on Facebook. Its already been displayed the anti-ms feeling on this site that really should be championing MS products and producing a commenting community that raves about MS wares.
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That obviously is not the case, and even to the casual reader IMO it is obvious that there are issues with the MS product range and image.
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On top of having an image problem, I believe MS has a trust problem as well. I think MS will find a plethora of people "up sticks" from facebook should it become an MS product. I certainly dont want MS having my personal details and its on of the reasons I hide behind a handle on the net.
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Goblin :

@Iman,
I will certainly check out that link, however dont be too keen to shout about Dell allegedly dropping google, lest you forget that Dell supply, and advertise in mainstream media, the fact that you can buy systems from them with Linux installed.
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So whilst it appears they may not champion Google, it certainly does appear they champion Linux.
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Not the best of adverts to try and imply Dells commitment to Microsoft products is it?

Charlie :

It will be good to see wether Yahoo sues (as IBM did with Apple) or not.
If they do they reckon Lu can bring something of value to MS. If they don't Y! reckons it'll do MS more harm than good.

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