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January 22, 2009 7:38 PM

How Grim Is Microsoft's Future?



News Analysis. Microsoft isn't offering Wall Street much guidance about the second half of fiscal 2009. It's a sign of the tough economic times ahead.

For weeks, there has been talk about how Microsoft might fare during the economic crisis. After all, annuity licensing contracts help offset any fluctuation in sales. Today, Microsoft answered by:

  • Announcing earnings hours early. Revenue rose year over year, but income fell. Microsoft missed its numbers.
  • Implementing cost-cutting measures, including 1,400 immediate layoffs and up to 5,000 over 18 months.
  • Offering no clear revenue or earnings-per-share guidance about the first half of 2009, which is the second half of Microsoft's fiscal year.

It's the last action that chilled Wall Street today. Microsoft shares fell about 10 percent in midday trading following the company's announcements, or for guidance lack thereof. Shares closed down nearly 12 percent, at $17.11. It wasn't Microsoft's best day, but by no means was it its worst either.

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During a conference call late this morning, Microsoft CFO Chris Liddell described the sales environment as "difficult" and bad "beyond our expectations." Sales were sluggish but within the expected range during October and November, only to collapse in December.

No doubt, there will be many people comparing Apple and Microsoft fourth calendar quarters. Apple reported record revenues of $10.17 billion, with net income of $1.61 billion, at the high end of the company's guidance. Microsoft reported $16.63 billion revenue and net income of $4.17 billion, which was below guidance. Microsoft is still more than two-and-a-half times more profitable. Apple's market capitalization is about half Microsoft's.

But Apple did yesterday what Microsoft couldn't today: offer a hard glimpse into the future. If there is a measure of Microsoft's future, it's the past. October's guidance for fiscal 2009: Revenue between $64.9 billion and $66.4 billion, operating income between $24.4 billion and $25.5 billion, and earnings per share between $2 and $2.10. Take it or leave it, because there is little else.

Chris did offer some loose guidance today, beret of hard numbers. I'm going to take that and mix it with my own psychic perceptions and offer some sense of what's ahead. I'll leave revenue and earnings-per-share guesstimates to financial analysts. I'll focus instead on the five business divisions.

Client. During today's earnings conference call, Chris described the PC market as the "key driver for Client revenue, and it is likely to remain weak over the second half of our fiscal year with market trends similar to or potentially weaker than the second quarter, especially the traditional PC market, excluding netbooks."

Not surprisingly, Microsoft's CFO said that the Client division's performance would largely mirror the PC market. More than 80 percent of the division's revenue comes from OEM licensing sales.

For Microsoft's fiscal second quarter, worldwide PC shipments were flat year over year, according to the company. In October, Microsoft forecast Client revenue growth of 7 percent to 10 percent based on PC shipment projections of 10 percent to 12 percent. Instead, revenue fell 8 percent year over year. Microsoft also had projected fiscal 2009 Client revenue growth of 2 percent to 6 percent. Clearly, Microsoft expects much worse but isn't ready to say.

So how bad will things get? I tried to answer that question last week. For starters, this economic crisis is much worse than the 2000-2002 recession. PC shipment declines are actually about the same, so far, as they were eight years ago. That's actually encouraging considering how far reaching the economic problems are.

Additionally, many businesses put off new PC purchases because of Vista. They can only wait so long, and Windows 7 will give them reason to deploy new computers. The problem: Microsoft is unlikely to release Windows 7 until fiscal 2010. That leaves netbooks, or mininotebooks, to pull PC sales—and I predict they will be much stronger than analyst predictions. Mininotebooks appeal because of their small size and low cost.

But mininotebook sales actually hurt Windows profits because most now ship with Windows XP Home. Microsoft makes less on Windows XP Home than it does on "premium" Vista editions. Windows 7 runs better on mininotebooks than Windows Vista, but, again, the newer software won't likely come until fiscal 2010, which starts July 1.

I predict that mininotebooks will remain a combined high/low point for Microsoft until Windows 7 releases. The high: increasing sales of the desirable, low-cost portables. The low: lower revenue, profits and margins for every Windows license sold.

Server and Tools. This division was Microsoft's bright performer among laggards. Revenue grew 15 percent year over year; Microsoft projected 16 percent to 17 percent growth in October.

About 35 percent of the division's revenue comes from transactional licenses sold to business. Chris said that these should "generally align with the server hardware market," which most analysts are forecasting to decline in 2009. "The remaining annuity licensing and enterprise services portion of the business will likely continue to grow faster than IT spending," Chris said.

Chris' assessment, with which I concur, shows the strength of Microsoft's annuity and CAL licensing models to push past larger macroeconomic conditions. My prediction: Many businesses will deploy new server software on existing hardware. The benefit goes then to Microsoft but less so to its OEM server partners. I would watch for businesses to virtualize and consolidate on some of the same hardware, even if they would otherwise upgrade.

Business. Three broad areas generate the division's revenue:

  • Consumer (20 percent), which is more closely aligned with PC sales.
  • Corporate (25 percent), which are mostly transactional license sales.
  • Annuity contracts (55 percent), which derive from volume licenses sold to corporations.

PC sales fluctuations affect the Business division much less than they do Client because of the larger mix of annuity contracts. That said, consumer revenue dropped $224 million in the fiscal second quarter because of declines in Office 2007 OEM licenses. The decline, related to PC sales, was the difference between satisfactory rather than weak revenue growth and an operating income increase rather than a decline. I would watch for that trend to continue during the next two quarters. Microsoft should get some relief during back-to-school sales during fiscal 2010's first quarter.

Chris said that transactional licenses "should generally align to the PC hardware markets, which may continue to decline [during the] second half." We'll see. While small businesses aren't likely to buy now, many large businesses will need to refresh PCs. If they don't have Office 2007 yet, new PC purchase is good time to deploy.

By contrast, annuity contracts are "somewhat insulated from macro trends and grow faster than IT spending," Chris asserted. That insulation will be crucial for Microsoft fending off low-cost alternatives, including Google Apps Premiere Edition.

In October, Microsoft projected year-over-year Business revenue growth of 7 percent to 8 percent. Even with normal consumer PC sales, the division likely wouldn't have achieved that growth level. For fiscal 2009, Microsoft had projected 12 percent to 13 percent revenue growth. My gut prediction: Under the best possible circumstances the Business division will achieve half that.

Online Services. Chris said to expect trends similar to the fiscal second quarter, as "advertising spending will likely remain weak until the economy starts turning. This is particularly true for the display portion of our advertising business, where we expect monetization rates across the industry to continue to worsen."

In October, Microsoft projected Online Services revenue growth between 6 percent and 10 percent for the fiscal second quarter. Instead, growth was flat year over year. For fiscal 2009, Microsoft had projected 10 percent to 13 percent. That's not going to happen. Even Google, which announced earnings after market close today, is feeling the spending pinch.

Potentially game changing would be some kind of search deal with Yahoo, which, during today's conference call, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer said he still wants. "I've been quite public about the fact that I think there are advantages for consumers, advertisers, Microsoft and Yahoo through a search partnership, and we'd like to do one." He said that he knows new Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz from her time at Autodesk.

Entertainment and Devices. The division is "highly dependent on consumer spending," Chris observed during today's conference call. "While we feel good about the first half's results, a shrinking consumer spending environment would weigh on the segment's results in the second half." He predicted console revenue declines "because of our earlier pricing actions." He also warned of lower game sales, both for consoles and PCs.

Fiscal second-quarter revenue growth was actually better than Microsoft forecast in October. The company expected anywhere from a 5 percent year-over-year decline to 1 percent growth. Instead, revenue grew by 3 percent. For fiscal 2009, Microsoft projected a 3 percent decline to 1 percent growth.

I expect the division to continue generating revenue growth, even when factoring in the $200 no-frills Xbox 360. Gaming is the technology segment that analysts say has resilience. There are some things consumers will spend on: Games and consoles are among them. Microsoft also has two new Halo games coming, one next month. The Halo franchise has proved to be profitable and margin-generating.

Zune struggled during the second fiscal quarter, with platform sales down more than 50 percent. It's by no means the only struggling Microsoft business. During today's conference call, Steve was asked about when and what businesses he would cut. None.

"I like our portfolio," he responded. "The board likes our portfolio."

[Please send your tips or rumors to watchtips at live.com].

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Comments (51)

jay :

Joe:

"Zune struggled during second fiscal quarter, with platform sales down more than 50 percent."

The #1 reason why the Zune has performed below what M$ would have hoped for since it's release is that they don't advertise the damn thing. While the Touch has the do it all UI, the Zune and its v3 software compete extremely favorably against its competitors, iPod, et al.

In addition to actually advertising the Zune on TV to the extent Apple does its products, M$ should have thrown money at Walmart to displace the iPod from its main isle location. Without their correcting these two glaring issues, the Zune will continue to struggle with gaining market share.

Certainly, the forthcoming Zunification of WinMo isn't a bad thing and will help immensely in terms of the adoption of Zune enabled devices, but M$ should have recognized this monumental requirement from the moment that marketing determined that they should deliver an iPod competitor. And, Apple is still selling millions of iPods. So again, without marketing and a little more cool factor on hardware side, M$ will continue to struggle to gain market share. The bottom line is that in a struggling economy, M$ has the edge over Apple, but they have to deliver a home run with W7. WM6.5 plus Zune will be a strong update to the WM platform, but WM7 needs to get out the door as rapidly as rock solid function and stability will allow. A RTM of November '09 or sooner would be desirable.

Finally, M$ is beginning to feel the heat of netbooks eroding Windows revenues. Some of this should be corrected with the release of W7, but this will only slow not stop the continued adoption of Linux in this space. Bethatasitmay, using the term grim for a company as overall healthy as M$ is a big stretch, Joe. Sure they're facing some challenges, but who isn't? The last I checked, the pundits were predicting up to 9K jobs to be axed. From what I can tell, the net loss might only be in the 2-3K range once the 18 months is done.

chips b malroy :

For another take on this:

Microsoft (MSFT) Gets A Second Chance

http://www.247wallst.com/2009/01/microsoft-msft.html#more

Quote: "The details are encouraging because, coupled with a deep recession, CEO Steve Ballmer may abandon some of the divisions that have been liabilities.
The bad economy took a significant toll on the two parts of the company which have never done well. The devices operations which houses the Xbox and Zune had flat sales at $3.2 billion but operating income fell apart, down from $375 million in the last calendar quarter of 2007 to $151 million in the current report. In other words, after being assigned its share of Microsoft's corporate overhead, it probably did not break even.
The most troubled part of Microsoft remains its online business. The loss in that division went from $247 million last year to $471 million in 2008. The company's move to build a portal and search-driven internet presence is failing at a remarkably fast pace."
--------------------------------------------------
It might be time to throw the towel in on the Zune. Certainly Windows Live needs to be cut back to the point it makes a profit.

Nice articles Joe, you have been very busy today.

chips b malroy :

How Grim Is Microsoft's Future?

Grim if MS cannot fix the malware problems.

Computer virus hits fire service

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/glasgow_and_west/7842652.stm

"Strathclyde Fire and Rescue has said its IT network has "come under attack from a computer virus. The service said its systems for delivering frontline services came from a "secure and isolated system".
----------------------------------------------------
A few points, the economy is getter worse, we are not at the bottom yet. While consumers have cut back, Corporate spending has not yet. Expect that to change soon. Windows Seven or Vista7 as it should be called, will not fix the malware problems that users have now, this will not drive sales. In fact it will continue driving users to Apple and Linux, further decreasing MS market share and profits. Expect the EU to fine MS twice in 2009.

jay :

@chips:

M$ is certainly behind the 8 ball regarding the Zune, but that's to be expected from a product that receives no TV marketing. Moreover, M$ isn't going to abandon Internet search or the Zune in terms of services. Also, they have to recognize that, as each year passes, standalone music players are a dying breed, which may be the reason they're focusing, of late, more on the software experience than the hardware with the Zune. Finally, they're not getting out of the gaming console business or mobile OS business, so I can't really see a major division going bye, bye except MSN.

Without a doubt, MSN needs to be axed, but M$ doesn't need to throw in the towel regarding an Internet portal presence entirely. Rather, they need to acquire Yahoo lock stock and barrel and replace one division with another. Once this is done, M$ needs to pull the plug on MSNBC and tell NBC to leverage CNBC as their on-going replacement. Let's not forget that M$ had the chance to purchase youtube, which Google ended up acquiring. Without youtube, all Google would have is their search business. Granted their top dog right now, but even Gmail isn't going to rocket to the top of the charts anytime soon. As such, M$ should shy away from acquiring Yahoo and possibly even Facebook in a couple of years.

Lawrence D'Oliveiro :

“I predict that mininotebooks will remain a combined high/low point for Microsoft until Windows 7 releases. The high: increasing sales of the desirable, low-cost portables. The low: lower revenue, profits and margins for every Windows license sold.”

So how do you think things will change once Windows 7 ships? If that’s going to replace XP on netbooks, then Microsoft won’t be able to charge more for it than they currently charge for XP. So, from a revenue and profit viewpoint, what exactly will be different?

Lava :


It's going to get a lot uglier, too, Joe. Why? The ludicrous insanity around netbooks, of which you yourself are guilty of.

Seems like all the PC manufacturers are willingly digging their own graves, and dragging Microsoft down with them. With all the tech bloggers hyping netbooks up as the next big thing, what do you think is going to happen in 2009?

Netbook marketshare will grow by leaps and bounds. Great, right? Well, what happens when Window 7 sees the light of day? You think Microsoft is going to be able to charge anything more than piddling license fees for $400 netbooks running Windows 7?

Here's the trap:

1) If netbooks gain more and more marketshare, Microsoft will have to price Windows 7 OEM licenses like XP because goodbye $400 netbooks if vendors have to pay normal OEM prices. Which means, Windows revenue goes into a freefall period because Microsoft becomes responsible for feeding the mania around the UNPROFITABLE and UNSUSTAINABLE netbook market.

2) Or, Microsoft holds the line on Windows 7 prices, or refuses to license Windows 7 to run on Netbooks, or cripples Windows 7 on netbooks. The netbooks market suddenly dies because only geeks are going to spend $400 buying a computer that runs Linux. Because continuing to sell XP after Windows 7 is released ain't gonna happen.

Too bad no one is doing the revenue implications on netbooks, which will be the death of many PC companies. I suspect it will be the thing that pushes Dell into the abyss....


KitKat :

@Lava -- Dell isnt going anywhere, Linux is gaining on netbooks as Ubuntu founder is now targeting them as a massive rich investor just wanting to get a foothold in that markey at a loss to take share away from microsoft.
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Only thing i see is Microsoft is in deep trouble with the recession and competition. The first competition it has encountered on the PC ever and its not doing very good at all. If rebranding Vista is its only competitive strategy, lol, good luck with that. Your customers arent that stupid.

chips b malroy :

'Vista Capable' case could cost Microsoft $8.5B

http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9126659

"Microsoft Corp. would have to come up with as much as $8.5 billion to settle accounts with the customers affected by its 2006 "Vista Capable" marketing program, according to documents unsealed by a federal court.
Keith Leffler, a University of Washington economist and expert witness for the plaintiffs, calculated that it would cost a minimum of $3.92 billion and as much as $8.52 billion to upgrade the 19.4 million PCs sold as Vista Capable to hardware able to run the premium versions of Windows Vista."

SkateNY :

The Zune is dead. As has been written here, no one knows about the Zune because it is neither aggressively marketed nor even passively advertised. And, it's much too late to play catch-up with the iPod at this time.

If Microsoft is serious about cutting their losses, they should start with the ill-fated Zune.

billybob :

Andre and others, please, please get in touch. We are all getting very worried that you all might have been cut back with the marketing budget.

You don't have to post about how rich Windows is (we know that might be painful for you at the moment), just let us know you are still employed and receiving laptops.

Forone :

Anybody who thinks Linux is eating MS's lunch in the netbook market should browse over to the very lively Acer Aspire One user forum and do a check of a) the number, b) the type of problems discussed, and c) the direction of OS switching reported by innocent end-users who bought netbooks, as between XP and Acer's Linux. If anything, the netbooks have definitively proven that Linux is still just not ready for mass market users. (How many years in development is Linux now? How patient and generous are we supposed to be with it?)

This year will see much bigger, faster SDDs and better chips, and a year from now Win7 will be replacing both Linux and XP on netbooks as well as enterprise units.

Will :

@ Forone:

I did go there. From a cursory glance, it looked to me more like mass market users are just not ready for Linux.

Here's a sampling of threads I found:

One person was in distress because they couldn't figure out how to install MSN messenger on Linux.

Another was having trouble getting Outlook to run on it.

Another person was trying to install either Firefox or Gimp by downloading a source zip from the internet. They double-clicked the archive file after it finished downloading, and the software didn't automatically install itself, so they had no idea what to do next.

Another person was trying to find a good anti-virus program to run on Linux, again by hunting around for something to download on the internet. (Linux does have anti-virus programs, but as I understand it,they exist mainly to protect other Windows machines in the event that a malware program uses a Linux box as a vector/carrier.)

What I see here are a bunch of users that could use a bit more education on how Linux works.

1.) Users need to be aware of alternate programs for many common functions such as email, instant messaging, etc., especially when the application they are used to in that area is a Microsoft product (we all know how hard they work on software compatibility, support for other operating systems, and general openness). The open source alternatives are usually just as good as the proprietary programs, and often better. There are probably exceptions here and there. Photoshop vs Gimp comes to mind, but I've found Gimp to be able to do everything I've ever needed to do, and if someone is doing hardcore professional graphics/image work, they won't be doing it on a netbook anyway)

2.) Package Manager. Know it. Love it. Use it. No one should have to compile anything from source on these machines, and they shouldn't have to go looking around on the internet to download something. Simply open the package manager, "google" for the name or description of the kind of software you are looking for, click a checkbox and an apply button, and sit back while the program automatically gets downloaded, installed, and integrated for you. Much less work than trying to install a program in Windows. If for some reason the netbook doesn't come with a usable package manager out of the box, then that is the fault of the netbook supplier for obviously making a poor choice of distro to preload on the machine.

So in general, it looks more like a lack of understanding about how Linux works and that Linux is not Windows. This happens with OSX too. I once was in an Apple store and overheard a guy coming in to return his recently purchased Macbook because he put a (non-Mac) game CD into his computer and it wouldn't install and run. He thought the computer was defective somehow. Do you think that OSX is not ready for mass market users?

Will :

@ Forone:

I did go there. From a cursory glance, it looked to me more like mass market users are just not ready for Linux.

Here's a sampling of threads I found:

One person was in distress because they couldn't figure out how to install MSN messenger on Linux.

Another was having trouble getting Outlook to run on it.

Another person was trying to install either Firefox or Gimp by downloading a source zip from the internet. They double-clicked the archive file after it finished downloading, and the software didn't automatically install itself, so they had no idea what to do next.

Another person was trying to find a good anti-virus program to run on Linux, again by hunting around for something to download on the internet. (Linux does have anti-virus programs, but as I understand it,they exist mainly to protect other Windows machines in the event that a malware program uses a Linux box as a vector/carrier.)

What I see here are a bunch of users that could use a bit more education on how Linux works.

1.) Users need to be aware of alternate programs for many common functions such as email, instant messaging, etc., especially when the application they are used to in that area is a Microsoft product (we all know how hard they work on software compatibility, support for other operating systems, and general openness). The open source alternatives are usually just as good as the proprietary programs, and often better. There are probably exceptions here and there. Photoshop vs Gimp comes to mind, but I've found Gimp to be able to do everything I've ever needed to do, and if someone is doing hardcore professional graphics/image work, they won't be doing it on a netbook anyway)

2.) Package Manager. Know it. Love it. Use it. No one should have to compile anything from source on these machines, and they shouldn't have to go looking around on the internet to download something. Simply open the package manager, "google" for the name or description of the kind of software you are looking for, click a checkbox and an apply button, and sit back while the program automatically gets downloaded, installed, and integrated for you. Much less work than trying to install a program in Windows. If for some reason the netbook doesn't come with a usable package manager out of the box, then that is the fault of the netbook supplier for obviously making a poor choice of distro to preload on the machine.

So in general, it looks more like a lack of understanding about how Linux works and that Linux is not Windows. This happens with OSX too. I once was in an Apple store and overheard a guy coming in to return his recently purchased Macbook because he put a (non-Mac) game CD into his computer and it wouldn't install and run. He thought the computer was defective somehow. Do you think that OSX is not ready for mass market users?

Will :

Sorry for the double post, Joe. I got an odd Movable Type error the first time and it looked like it didn't go through.

A41202813@GMAIL.COM :

the google translation from that russian guy reeds as follows:

"Thank you for your site, very useful resource, I like very much"

billybob :

@Forone - The point is not if people love it or not, the point is that for every netbook sold with Linux, Microsoft loses an XP sale which HAS affected their income.

They even said so themselves in the financial statement. Are you saying they are lying to make their investors more nervous?

smist08 :

I guess if you can't influence independent people, you can alway dictate to those you own:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28039226/?pg=7#Tech_JerkGadgets

Basically a series of MSNBC articles attacking Linux, Apple, Blackberry and Tivo. Funny that Vista, Zune and WM didn't make this list! Certainly a sad state of editorial affairs over at MSNBC.

Paul :

@Kitkat

"Dell isnt going anywhere, Linux is gaining on netbooks as Ubuntu founder is now targeting them as a massive rich investor just wanting to get a foothold in that markey at a loss to take share away from microsoft."

Linux share on netbooks has gone from 100% a year ago to 20% now, with Windows now attached on 80%. So your comment on Linux momentum isn't supported by the facts.

goblin :

@forone
You asked how long Linux is in development. Irellevant you either use it or dont. You ask how generous do you have to be with it? id answer not at all, its a free system and hardly of risk to any user who gives it a try.
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If Linux (as you suggest) is of no threat to anyone, why have there been allegations on the net of microsoft employing underhanded tactics to prevent any alternative views been read?
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Weve even seen those alleged tactics played out on this very site. If Linux was a nostarter why would people seek to dilute the alternatives view? Surely it would be a waste of time and money.
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Why amist all the praise of win 7 has nobody commented on the performance results which, if the reports are to believed are almost identical to xp, where are all the people who called posters who said "vista wasnt fit for purpose" liars. Where are all the people who said vista was loved, but more importantly, as billybob says where on earth is Andre?

avro :

@ Paul Don't know where your figures are from but the current XP/Linux split is 60/40 and given the default setting of Windows this is pretty impressive for Linux.

figures recently publish by The Guardian

goblin :

@Avro
I dont think Paul did either. Certainly from my experience the Linux Netbook has been far more popular, although I wouldnt suggest that is the general trend.
-
I dont think Microsofts future is grim (in response to the original topic) I think its more "downsized" what I believe happened in the past is that Microsoft grew to its size due to little viable competition. I was listening to a chap from ZDnet talk on the radio yesterday, and he made a very good point "Who would have thought Apple would make phones?" I think that the past is now catching up with Microsoft, since companies like Apple are innovating in directions the company never did before.

chips b malroy :

What's Microsoft's Next Move In Netbook Game?

http://www.crn.com/software/212902058

""I believe Microsoft is seriously thinking about creating a separate SKU for Windows 7 on netbooks that's significantly more expensive than XP Home," said one source, who asked to remain anonymous.
A Microsoft spokesperson contacted by Channelweb.com said the company doesn't comment on Windows pricing issues. In any event, Microsoft won't stop selling XP on netbooks until June 30, 2010, or one year after the Windows 7 ship date, whichever comes later."

----------------------------------------------------
A good article on Netbooks and what MS plans. Looks like MS plans on charging more for Seven than XP on a Netbook. Also they can have XP Home on Netbooks till summer of 2010, as well. This should imply that Seven will not be able to run well on all Netbooks.

Goblin :

I originally said that Microsofts future imo was not grim. I may have to change that stance.
http://community.zdnet.co.uk/blog/0,1000000567,10011981o-2000331761b,00.htm
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If it wasnt on ZDnet I would have thought it a joke.

rickst29 :

Microsoft's current "grim" status, and possibly "grim" outlook, aren't determined by irrevelant, non-core products like Zune: It's almost entirely a function of the core Windows OS and MS-Office. The Exchange platform is probably in 3rd place, but it doesn't drive a lot of CLIENT upgrades.

There *IS* a lot of pent-up demand for non-Vista notebooks and desktops, and it would be very, very bad for MS to allow further inroads against their monopoly position by Linux and Apple: Even if these "alternatsive" OS products don't have much absolute market share on OEM boxes, the "mind share" has become quite high-- and very large numbers of users, such as me, are buying Vista-encumbered boxen but USING add-on Linux. Such purchases, even though official "wins" for Windows, are not helpful to Windows "mind share".

I'm very surprised to see Chris Liddell pretty much pre-announce that MS has given up on Windows-7 going "Gold" in time for the August-September peak of school-related purchases, as well as the entire Christmas Season. The Vista sales schedule, with all those "upgrade-included later" coupon-based promises, totally fell on it's face-- lots of Christmas 2007 buyers NEVER received their disks, the rebate-like order process had nearly total breakage with lots of OEMs.

And those people haven't forgotten. Christmas 2009 with "We'll send you the upgrade in Spring" will lead to lots of buyers sitting on the sidelines, again, saying "I'll only get screwed again, do those jerks REALLY think that I've forgotten from only two years ago ?!?!?".

So, I think that Liddell's hope that a Win-7 Release in 2010-Q1 will attract nearly all of the people who WOULD HAVE bought during in School/Holiday 2009 Season, with Win-7 pre-installed, won't work. They'll sit on the fence for Christmas, and they'll stay there through Spring.

portuno_diamo :

@Goblin:

Per http://community.zdnet.co.uk/blog/0,1000000567,10011981o-2000331761b,00.htm

Here's the tell:

"At the moment, to be honest with you, we don't have the functionality in-house to provide a mechanism for transferring between mobile phones and PC"

Isn't that fascinating? Where is that functionality if Microsoft doesn't have it? And where will Microsoft get it? From outside no doubt.

Hugh Griffiths has just explained to the world at large precisely how Microsoft screwed up Vista and why Microsoft has only recently become web-enabled.

The view from current hindsight is beginning to illuminate the lies hidden by the years of bravado and bluffs. It's funny how truth comes out no matter how elaborate the ruses may be arranged.

Thanks for the chuckle, Hugh. "To be honest with you..." Heh heh heh. When will that kind of thing become a "strategy" in Microsoft instead of a joke?

Will :

"At the moment, to be honest with you, we don't have the functionality in-house to provide a mechanism for transferring between mobile phones and PC"


I'm really not surprised that simple file copying is an ancient, lost technology within Microsoft.

Remember all the problems with copying, moving, and deleting files that Vista had earlier in its life? Here's a hint:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/12/20/more_vista_copying_problems/

(note the screenshot--priceless!)

I guess that issue has been fixed by now. At least I hope so for the sake of any unfortunate Vista users out there. But funny nonetheless.

With any luck, by Win7's ship date the archaeological teams sent to unearth and study relics from the XP era will be able to pool their research with the engineering and design teams sent to study KDE4 in order to revive file copying technology as well as rediscover the art of making a usable OS that was lost during the Vistapocalypse.


(Statements in this post were made with tongue firmly in cheek. Don't get bent out of shape by them and don't take them too seriously.)

Goblin :

Hi Portuno!
Quote "Hugh Griffiths has just explained to the world at large precisely how Microsoft screwed up Vista and why Microsoft has only recently become web-enabled."
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Agree completely and it will be interesting to see where this leads Mr Griffiths. My bet is on an "taken out of context" explanation. It does though sort of explain IMO why Microsoft are touting touch technology as some great innovation, maybe they had never heard of it before?
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Quote "Isn't that fascinating? Where is that functionality if Microsoft doesn't have it? And where will Microsoft get it? From outside no doubt."
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Thats lost on me aswell. Maybe its gone to the same place Vista's functionality did?
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@Everyone
The one thing that puzzles me (and has been mentioned a few times on recent threads) where is our lovable Andre Da Costa? Isnt this the part where he turns up with one of his "feature rich" comments? Speaking of Andre there may well be a bit of a mystery there (and not the question of if he went to the PDC last year or not)
It appears Andre hasnt posted on his blog since 15th and Im damned if I can find any of his "feature rich" posts anywhere.
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Is Andre the victim of the recent "cutting of fat" from Microsoft?
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Is Andre hiding from this site, since he still hasnt answered the question of the discrepancy between his blog saying he wasnt going to the PDC and another site saying he was there?
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Is Andre at a loss for words and unable to provide any response to recent news from Redmond?
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Or is it something else?
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I sincerely hope he returns. This site isnt the same place without him.

chips b malroy :

Microsoft Paid $3.1 Billion To Settle Tax Debt

http://www.informationweek.com/news/windows/operatingsystems/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=212902141&subSection=All+Stories

----------------------------------------------------
@Goblin:
"I sincerely hope he returns. This site isnt the same place without him."

Are you so sure he was not here?

chips b malroy :

@Goblin:
I would be concerned more about Jess Meats, as she said she was fairly new at MS. And she was a polite poster, that I have to praise her for.

Also the link above that I posted about the $3.1 Billion is being greatly overloaded in the press. That amount is more than the fines the EU did. Could it be the reason that MS let lose their quarterly report and layoffs a few hours early? As bad as that was, in tandem with the $3.1 billion to be paid to the IRS, that was actually the worse news. Plus, as most know, the IRS wants its money right now.

chips b malroy :

correction in my last post
The word overloaded should have been overlooked
sorry for the typo

Ralph :

rickst29 :wrote

"There *IS* a lot of pent-up demand for non-Vista notebooks and desktops"
--------------------------------------------------
Correct, and it is two fold. First there is a huge interest in Linux for its ability to resist virus and malware. That alone has made converts from Windows to Linux as well as to Apple.

And since Linux costs nothing except a download and a 10 cent blank CD to burn it on. The cost factor is very attractive for many. Then you add the feature of "LIVE CD" where you can run a Linux OS live without installing anything by just running it from your cd drive has made many a computer newbie a fan of Linux.

Just imagine the freedom of being able to surf anywhere on the internet and not having to worry about your system getting hosed and having to pay hundreds of dollars to get it fixed.

The second part.... Windows XP.

So XP is on the way out...eh? Think again, in a recent flyer (sales ad) by Micro Center, I counted no less than SIX different refurbished Windows XP computers for sale. And this is does not include the half dozen or so new computers with XP Pro on it. The sales ad had refurbished XP computers from $149 and up. They even had a Ubuntu computer desktop for $199.


Whats the point? There is still a very healthy interest in XP computers yet. As much as Windows 7 "seems" to be a improvement over Vista. There are still computers that won't run Windows 7.

At my work, we have XP Pro machines with specs like 1.2 Ghz and 128 MB RAM. The last thing our company will do is go out and buy new computers or install 1 GB of ram and Windows 7. Trust me, I already talked to the IT person. If we needed a new computer...it would be a refurbished model.

I think the damage is done, Vista hurt MSFT in my opinion. And while the economy certainly is a factor, the supposed "flagship" OS just went down for the last count.

And it just isn't Vista that is behind the problems. It is also companies that produce proprietary software that will see more and more of its profits dry up due to open source mandates.

Russia and now France join the call for cost free open source programs. And as I repeatedly stated, mandates are a done deal and no "clever ad campaigns" or back room deals will reverse the trend.

Like others have stated here, there are the E.U. problems and the Vista capable issues that still have to be dealt with.


Zune is another subject. Here at the very start of the legal download age (earlier this decade). Microsoft releases "Plays for sure" DRM. Part of the deal that record companies (at the time) insisted on some kind of DRM or protection for legal download tracks. So MSFT developed "Plays for sure".

The idea was simple, if you bought a DRM-ed track...as long as your MP3/WMA player was able to play "plays for sure". It didn't matter what player you had, it would play that track. Simple ...isn't it?

Well that wasn't good enough for the fine folks at Redmond. They saw what Apple and the I-POD had. So they decide like, "hey lets have a music site and sell tunes will play only on the Zune". They figure that since Apple can do it, they can too.

So they create yet another DRM standard that will only work on the Zune. I guess their thinking was that more people will buy Zune if they had a music site that the tunes will only play on a Zune.

And then they bury "Plays for sure" and put it out to pasture and basically shut everyone except them out of the WMA DRM market. And seemingly left MP3/WMA player manufacturers and more importantly, customers out in the cold.

Mind you while this was going on, DRM had already just about reached its peak and the trend was for DRM free tracks from legal download sites like Amazon and Walmart.

Also around this time many consumers found that by burning the DRM-ed track to a CD and then re ripping that song back into a MP3 into the computer...the DRM was gone and then the track was able to be played on any device that played MP3's. So why did you "need" to buy a Zune for? Even one of those "generic" $20 MP3 players will play MP3's for you.

No one saw a trend away from DRM at MSFT? Didn't MSFT learn from the Sony "A-TRAC" debacle?


Just like no one saw the need for Netbooks or a need for a lean and mean OS to run on them? With the billions of dollars at its disposal to hire the brightest minds, the best talent, the best marketing consultants and analysts and no one could see trends or respond to shifting consumer preferences?

And lets not even go into that $300 Million ad campaign. Its a far cry from those "Start me up" Windows 95 commercials of a bygone era.

Perhaps these examples are among the reasons why the company is in trouble.

Goblin :

Hi Ralph!
-
Just to add to your post, I would also like to mention that in the case of some distributions of Linux, you dont even need to download it or spend 10cents on a disk as they will send it you through the post FREE OF CHARGE.
-
How much more risk free and free can you get ?!?!
In the case of Ubuntu, you even get a free set of stickers aswell.
-
Wheres the risk? You wont have to upgrade your existing machine to be comparable with SKYnet just to run an OS and if you find Linux is not for you then theres no harm done.
-
(I know youre already aware of that Ralph, just wanted to add that for people who may not!)
-
DISCLAIMER: To stop certain people implying that I am claiming you need a super high spec machine to run Windows, the SKYnet comment was said tongue in cheek.

oiaohm :

The comments about Linux is not ready proves something. How much damage has a not ready OS done to the MS bottom line. A lot. Also its bull about Linux having 100 percent netbook market. Netbook market is older than asus. Just it took off recently.

Migration from Windows to Linux. Interface software for that from Ubuntu is improving.

Video interface is improving.

Franky project from samba is working on getting Linux servers with ADS server. Real threat to Microsoft.

Freeipa and pulse2 are both working on central management.

2009 could be the year that most of the bits come into one deady combination. Heck most people cannot correctly manage a windows 2008 server anyhow.

Its the saving grace. Most people use at home what they use at work. Linux has not taken out the work market yet.

billybob :

@Goblin: You said you think Microsoft is going to be downsized. I agree, but large public companies do not downsize very well at all. They have to pay severance and give notice to employees, buildings are hard to get rid of unless you can move the people. Saving costs like this actually costs money in the short-term.

Nobody has to actually buy or use Linux to cost Microsoft money. We have seen many many examples of companies or Governments looking into Linux, only to go back to Microsoft and get a discount on what they were going to buy anyway.

If there is one piece of advice for MS customers, it would be to look into Linux to get a discount on their next purchase.

Microsoft make stupid amounts of money each year, but it burns through 3 times as much just to keep running. Once that profit margin is reduced, the company will have to radically downsize or they will have major losses. As I said before, rapidly downsizing is hard for large companies. Downsizing in itself will cost more revenue, which in turn reduces profit, which leads to downsizing.

If I remember correctly, Ballmer announced a major cost cutting exercise a few years ago. This has helped to maintain their profits, but from now on I think the savings will be much more visible. I think the figure was $1 billion per year, I don't think it was ever achieved, or he spent the money on more employees.

The solution would be a complete restructure, starting from the top. Get some vision and execute it. They do not have the mass anymore to just do whatever they like without thinking about the consequences. The only vision I see from Sweaty Ballmer is 'Windows on everything', that was great in 1990 but now there are many many devices which do not run on Windows.

Chip :

This week: "Zune platform revenue decreased $100 million, or 54 percent, reflecting a decrease in device sales," Microsoft said.

Yet, just two weeks ago: "Robbie Bach, head of Microsoft's entertainment division, noted that Zune 'had a great year' in 2008."

I think Microsoft's biggest problem at the moment is that they don't understand the magnitude of their problem. They're either lying to themselves, or to the public, or both.

Goblin :

Billybob, I had not really thought how much Linux could benefit end users who dont use it! I completely agree and with that theory the only people who should be anti-Linux are the shills employed to promote the products. Afterall a legitimate Windows end user will be very pleased if they get a discount on their software, and ergo would be very pleased that Linux is about and getting more popular.
-
IMO the only people who wont be happy are the ones who have an interest in Microsoft making as much money as it can. Everyone else benefits, whatever they choose.

Goblin :

For anyone interested in the on going beta testing of Windows 7, it appears some users are helping Microsoft with workarounds for a bug theyve found. I think you will agree its a slightly more than minor one:
-
http://blogs.zdnet.com/microsoft/?p=1822
-
I wonder what "discoveries" will be made in later releases?
-
As Im sure some will say "its only a beta", those same people are not willing to say the same at the good comments regarding Windows 7 are they?
-
I think the unwritten rule is, if the praise is good, claim that the good report shows that Windows 7 is going to be the greatest version ever and if the news is bad, simply say "its only a beta"

oiaohm :

Personally I have a funny one the software I use is way cheaper on Linux.

So cost effective for me to run Linux. Biggest issue really is people not looking around at the options and instead trying to make one size fit all.

Of course I have other people who windows fits better.

Question how many people buy MS Office because they don't know or try anything else. There is still far more damage that can happen to MS money lines.

Mr. Netbook :

I just bought a wonderful Netbook, the Mini 1000 Mi series with option to kick up the memory to 2 gigs. It comes with Novell SUSE Linux. Runs great, runs fast, you know, for a Netwbook and I can do everything so far that I need a regular laptop to do. I did opt for the larger screen, old eyes.

How is it, from the netbook to my Vista desktop to move a file from Vista to my netbook takes 10 minutes to push this 180 meg file?

From my Linux netbook, same file, to my son's Linux Ubuntu machine, which the hardware is identicle between the desktops only takes a few ticks on the clock.

Listen at first, I thought there was some weird bug in thr transfer of these files. I found it that Microsoft is indeed a real problem.

Why is my Netbook more efficiant that my desktop which is suppose to be a very powerful machine?

Perhaps I should Novell SUSE on that one too?

Just thought you all needed to know. The Netbook is going to be a smashing success for Linux.

chips b malroy (not Chip) :

Windows 7: the untold story of how the enterprise gets snubbed

http://www.networkworld.com/community/node/37541

"there are cool, eye-popping features in Windows 7 for the enterprise –- unfortunately some are randomly tied to Windows Server 2008 R2 -– which is also in beta. If you want to yank out the VPN and let Windows handle a secure connection to the server (a new feature called DirectAccess), you can. But only if all of your clients and servers are using the latest operating systems from Microsoft. That's a shame in this economy when expensive, large-scale upgrades of the entire operating system infrastructure are not going to fly. (To be fair, enterprises that have opted for Microsoft's Software Assurance deal should be covered for the license fees of an upgrade from WS2008 to R2, but that won't cover the cost of man hours)."

Goblin :

@Mr Netbook
-
I really enjoyed reading your post, as personal experiences of end users are far more interesting to me than press releases (or fake opinion)
-
I am also pleased you've found OpenSUSE so good, and for a long while our computer club proudly used OpenSUSE.
-
What I would say though, OpenSUSE & indeed Ubuntu are two of the slowest performing Linux distros (IMO) and whilst you will probably find operating speeds that you never dreamed of through a Windows system, I have to say there are faster distro's out there.
-
Ive made my opinions on OpenSUSE very clear in the past, whilst it may have a talented and active userbase, to me, the product is tainted by Novell's association with Microsoft.
-
I cannot believe Microsoft would sit back and let OpenSUSE "get on with it" unless there was a plan at play that we are not aware of. Of course I cannot backup any of this with fact. I cannot present that view with anything other than it being my own opinion, but what I would say is look for yourself at things like Mono (again bringing MS to Linux) and see that Novell is sponsoring it.
-
Is it strange that Novell is involved with these Microsoft/Linux projects?
-
You can call that paranoia, or even trouble making but when there are so many other great distros around and you've already found out for yourself the benefits of a Linux system over a Windows one, Id ask you at least keep an open mind in regards to future distro's you may use. Many people here recommend Mint (which I havent used, but heard great things about) Having said that, you cant really go wrong with Ubuntu.
-
For the record, I have 3 rigs at home. 2 x Gentoo 1 x Ubuntu (which is what this is being typed on) I do not suggest though anyone considers a Gentoo distro, until they are competant and happy with the Linux platform.

Mr. Netbook :

@Goblin;

Thanks for the insight. I never knew that about Novell and Microsoft. My son uses the Ubuntu 64 something or another on his machine.

It seems like the version that is on my Netbook is running fine, and I am concerned that it is obviously under warranty. So, I don't want to rock the boat.

My son, I'll have him destroy my Visa machine for the Ubuntu (whatever the x stuff means) and put that on it. It seems he knows what he doing.

Goblin :

Hi Mr Netbook,
I would never suggest that anyone removes something from their machine if they are happy with it.
-
The fact that your son uses Ubuntu gives you first hand experience of the differences, and if OpenSUSE works for you, great!
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With Vista, it wouldnt be fair for me to suggest anything (since there is no doubt about my opinions on it). However with the size of todays HD there is no harm in dual booting and having both.
-
Can I make it clear (before any of the other more dubious posters jump on Mr Netbooks post) that I do not want anyone to simply "take my word for it"
What I would like is that people conduct their own research and see what others are saying before they make any decision.
-
An OpenSUSE netbook may be ideal platform for many, however with the ease and speed of most of the Linux distros, once the warranty has run out, there is no harm in having a look. In the meantime, LiveCD's offer a great way to experiment without having to install anything.
-
Mr Netbook, (unless Im wrong) you appear to have recently come from a Windows platform dependency. I (and I believe others) would be very interested to hear of your experiences with Wine (if indeed you still have a need of some native Windows software) and how performance differs between the platforms.
-
Mr Netbook, you are the type of user who has a more valuable opinion than myself. I speak from years of Linux use, and therefore I wont always consider the issues of someone who has recently migrated. I take the commandline in my stride, but often forget it can appear daunting to others.
-
Good or bad, Id love for you to document your experience here.

As a regular business, M$ has a bright future. They have diversified and make tons of money outside the client division.

As a monopoly, their future is exceedingly grim. They can no longer charge what they want for their products: XP is going for peanuts on netbooks, licences are $3 in China, the world has discovered OpenOffice.org, and GNU/Linux is hot everywhere, especially in the BRIC countries. Their monopoly is gone on the desktop and the server, now that the EU has acted. Outside the USA where the fanbois grow on trees and business where many will continue to throw money at M$ because they are used to doing that, there is lots of downside looming.

The USA is the place where M$ is most popular and even there MacOS and GNU/Linux are whittling away at share. Now that the world has seen GNU/Linux in action, the brand loyalty/complacency of customers everywhere will evaporate. Everyone who wants M$'s products will use GNU/Linux as a lever because it is an option for about 80% of desktops and GNU/Linux purrs so nicely on servers. Many will migrate to MacOS because they do not particularly care about costs but want stuff that works.

On the other hand, at these prices for hardware, the real growth in IT is in emerging markets outside the USA/Europe where billions of new customers are quite willing to buy GNU/Linux instead of that other OS.

Goblin :

Very interesting post Robert, cant fault it. I am now looking at your site!
-
I hope this hasnt already been debated, but I read somewhere that people who buy Vista after 1st June, will be entitled to a free Windows 7 upgrade (I really wish I could remember where I saw it)
-
If this is true, havent MS effectively killed off Vista sales until June, as people will simply wait and go for the 2 for the price of 1 deal?
-
I believe Microsoft are in for a few more EU battles in the coming years, and I find it ironic that whilst some implied MS would wield its patent portfolio in a big way, it seems Microsoft is being targetting proactively with anti-trust legislation.

Ralph :

@ Robert

Read your site.

Interesting about how Windows 7 "chews up a lot more CPU cycles per transaction loop than XP — from 39 to 68 percent more on dual-core ..... Any illusions about Windows 7 somehow being leaner or more efficient than Vista can now be thrown out the window"

Also interesting is the 29 % Linux sales increase in China.

Good reading and I bookmarked your page.

SkateNY :

I don’t doubt that many or even most Zune owners are satisfied with what they have. Here’s my thing: Apple dove into the MP3 market when that market was already well on its way to maturity. The iPod quickly made a big splash, and iTunes has played no small part in helping the iPod acuire a 70% market share. Apple did not engage in illegal, monopolistic business practices in order to achieve that level of prominence; nor did Steve Jobs hypnotize buyers, steering them towards the iPhone.

When the iPhone was released in October of 2001, it succeeded during a recession caused by the terrorist attacks of 9/11. If the current economic climate adversely affected the Zune and other consumer products, then it stands to reason that it also adversely affected iPod sales. Yet, Apple reported a growth in iPod sales for the most recent quarter, versus a 54% drop in Zune revenues. How much better would the iPod have faired this quarter without the deepening recession?

I believe that Microsoft and its investors need to re-evaluate the Zune with regard to how it affects other products, and how it affects shareholder interests. If I’m a Microsoft competitor — and I don’t believe that Apple and Microsoft compete in the sense that they appeal to very different groups of customers — then I truly hope that Microsoft continues to throw money and other resources at the Zune.

SkateNY :

Sorry about that. I typed "iPhone" when I meant to type "iPod." That having been said, there exist more than free application downloads on Apple's app store that will easily turn your iPod touch into a phone without the pressure of having a two-year contract.

maddog :

With more hard times in 2009, businesses will be looking for ways to save. One great way to do so is to use free/open source software (FOSS). Will that impact Micro$oft's bottom line? It may not make much of a dent in Ballmer's kitty, but it's not likely to help either.

For businesses that need to mind their expenses, however, FOSS will make a huge difference.

Goblin :

Continuing the thread of "How grim is Microsofts Future?" I read an interesting article on Computer World, which I would like to share here:
-
http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9126605

Questor :

Let's see...

Microsoft USA cuts 1,400 of 5,000 employee jobs last week and until very recently claimed they could not find enough qualified tech workers.

Microsoft India hires 9,000 in the past year and claims they have many tech support jobs open.

This is what happens when companies such as Microsoft block labor unions from forming. Microsoft only hires younger workers which results in wide-spread age discrimination.

Balmer and Gates are moving Microsoft from the USA in the larget company transfer of assets out of the USA to max out stock value. They are TRAITORS to the US economy and US workers.

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