If Not One Steve, How About Another?

Steve Ballmer's keynote is highly important for him and for Microsoft. The question: Can he meet his audience, in a way Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates couldn't? Bill was a great Comdex keynoter, but he was terrible for CES. Defunct Comdex attracted Bill's people: Geeks. While some of them have switched to CES, the event isn't a geekfest. Don't words "consumer" and "electronics" mean something in the name?

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Bill wouldn't just talk nerd. He would talk business, which is way wrong for the CES crowd. Consumer. Electronics. Office, SharePoint and Windows Server are best left for another venue. Steve Ballmer, hereafter referred to as just Steve, has opportunity to talk consumer—and he's a salesman. That's different than Steve Jobs, who is a marketer.

If there was a battle of Steve keynotes, it would go something like this: Apple's CEO would make his pitch and you'd run out to buy that new Mac gizmo because he had convinced you your life would be better for it. By contrast, Microsoft's CEO would make you want to buy that new Microsoft product for fear that if you didn't he would whack you aside the head. Steve—that's Ballmer—has tremendous stage presence.

Steve has got to sell Microsoft tonight, like he never has done before. His first CES keynote will set the tone for Windows 7, at the least. Right now, Microsoft is in the operating system doghouse. Windows Vista can't rise above negative perceptions, many of which Microsoft bears blame. Worse, from a marketing perspective, Microsoft has given up on Vista, pushing just the Windows brand instead. Vista is the past Microsoft wants to forget. Seven is the future that Microsoft can't get soon enough.

Vista's debacle has tarnished Microsoft's brand, which in the consumer market clings to the Xbox 360 lifeline. But the rope is fraying. Windows Live Wave 3 is a promising brand booster, but it's Facebook that is racking up huge numbers of subscribers. There are more than 130 million already.

In business, perception is everything, and Microsoft isn't perceived as being the cool brand. Apple is super cool, particularly among Net Geners. Right now, Windows looks like a beer-guzzling, obese couch potato. The cool Mac kids create videos and are the happening thing online, while beer gut slurps Schlitz and watches Monday night wrestling. It's that perception Microsoft must dispel in 2009, and Steve's keynote will set the tone.

By the way, some observation and advice for Microsoft: Apple is sucking wind online. The company is perceived to be cool, but its products don't connect well where the hip kids play online. There's no real social networking strategy. OK, so people will be able to post pictures to Facebook and Flickr from iPhoto when iLife `09 releases later this month. Big deal; plug-ins already provided that functionality. Apple software and services are islands unto themselves. Through iPhone and iPod Touch there is some connection, but mostly on Apple's terms. It's a fundamental flaw; a hugely exploitable weakness.

What I really want to hear from Steve tonight: Microsoft's social strategy. Steve needs to tell the story about the Microsoft lifestyle and how the company's products will make people happier by allowing them to more easily express themselves online and there connect to and engage with other people. Xbox Live and Zune/Zune Marketplace are highly social, and they're good starting places. Windows Live offers another social experience, and it's one that plays better with other social networking services.

But what about Windows 7 and Windows Mobile? Steve has got to show everyone how these products will anchor—no, transform—people's online social experiences. Problem: Neither product seems ready for the challenge.

That said, Microsoft has got something Apple doesn't, not even Google. It's a vision articulated a half decade or more ago: The personal and professional digital lifestyle. Microsoft understands just how much overlap there is between a person's home and work lifestyles. There needs to be better management, better reconciliation between the lifestyles.

You're probably like me on Facebook. You've got work and personal friends bunched together, and each can see what the other is doing. I sometimes joke with my wife that sometime my work contacts and personal friends will mix like matter and antimatter. I feel a little uneasy that both groups see what the other does. How do you use Twitter? Since most of my Twitter followers are work contacts or people interested in what I blog about for Apple Watch and Microsoft Watch, I tweet very few personal things. I have no personal Twitter account then, yet my tweets go to my Facebook status.

For years, Microsoft has espoused the vision of meeting the demands of both lifestyles. Now, it's time to deliver. Windows 7 is one starting place. New networking features detect home or work connection and accordingly adjust services, like printing.

Microsoft has many flaws, like any other company. There are serious image problems, in part related to Windows Vista and also stemming from some smart marketing by Apple. In my 2009 advice to Microsoft, I challenged the company to advertise everywhere, fire its ad agency and to clean up branding. It's long past time Microsoft did some really good marketing. That's going to take commitment and willingness to be trendy and to spend on advertising even as global economies recede. The best marketing starts at the top, and it could tonight when Steve Ballmer takes the CES keynote stage.

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