Is Microsoft Dead in the Consumer Market?
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"Except for gaming, it is 'game over' for Microsoft in the consumer market," Mark Anderson of the Strategic News Service, which attempts to predict technology trends, told The New York Times on Dec. 10. "It's time to declare Microsoft a loser in phones. Just get out of Dodge." Microsoft has long been touting its three-screens-and-a-cloud strategy, wherein Microsoft services are ported via the cloud onto not only the PC (screen one) but also the smartphone (two) and TV (three). But as the smartphone achieves an ever-higher degree of prominence within the tech-world firmament, Microsoft finds itself shacked by Windows Mobile, a mobile operating system that even Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer allegedly said the company "screwed up" on. Microsoft has pinned much of its hopes for a smartphone resurgence on Windows Mobile 7, the next generation of the operating system apparently slated for release sometime in 2010. But Anderson, in his comments to the Times, indicated that the issues run far deeper than that: "Phones are consumer items, and Microsoft doesn't have consumer DNA," Anderson said, according to Times blogger Steve Lohr. "Walk the halls at Microsoft and you can see it is not a place that gets consumers ... Just as if you walk the halls at Google, it's obvious it is not a place that gets the enterprise world." I bet that both Microsoft and Google, respectively, would take issue with that statement. But as smartphones continue to become forefront devices for innovation and everyday tech use, Microsoft does indeed find itself at something of a disadvantage--even more so with the increasing prevalence of Google's Android OS. If Microsoft's never been in a more tenuous position with regard to the mobile market, though, I would say its wider consumer stance is a bit more solid. There's the Xbox franchise, of course, which Anderson cites as a success (sales of the Xbox 360 have edged past those of Sony's PlayStation 3, but overall gaming revenues are down despite the holiday season). Plus, Windows continues to hold onto a substantial portion of the consumer PC market. During the Windows 7 launch on Oct. 22 in New York, various Microsoft executives attempted to show how, with Windows 7 as the foundation, various screens within a home network could display a wide variety of content. People continue to surf the Web and perform other everyday (non-business) functions using Microsoft products. Microsoft's overall share of the consumer market could erode, given the right combination of circumstances, but I don't see its death in that particular area as imminent. What do you think? What's your take on Anderson's comments? |
Comments (12)
Windows Mobile is already dead. Very few developers are writing software for it any more. I gave up writing apps for it, as Windows Mobile is a diminishing market (I'm now concentrating on Android, because of its exponential growth).
Microsoft is still trying to fight the old desktop PC battle in the mobile arena, but the mobile market is completely different.
No company on this earth is making money by licensing its mobile operating system to handset makers. Microsoft is alone trying to do this. Licensing OSes worked on the desktop PC, but it simply does not work for mobiles. Yet Microsoft is still pouring endless money down this drain, only to see its Windows Mobile market share shrink further.
Windows Mobile has been overtaken in the business handset market by both Blackberry and iPhone. So it's no longer winning the business market either, as corporate users and enterprises abandon it. Nobody's going to risk investing in this platform that is in terminal decline.
Yes, Windows Mobile is dead. Version 7 will be its last. Handset makers are all making the transition to Android.
Posted by Jeffery Sattersby | December 11, 2009 9:05 PM
Xbox seems like a success, relative to Sony's Playstation, but they haven't turned a profit the last 2 quarters.
There's no future in WinMo. License shipments are on pace to drop below 10M a year, after shipping more than 18M last year. They are competing against free OSes, like Symbian, Android. How are they going to get any OEM to pay? Palm used to sell WinMo phones now are using WebOS. Motorola is going towards Android. Samsung just launched its own Linux-based Bada. HTC is moving towards Android. Who is left to license WinMo? LG? Are they paying LG to use WinMo? How is that a profitable strategy?
Posted by KenC | December 11, 2009 11:19 PM
Sorry, but even the XBox is just a teenage+ market product, fighting with Sony for a #2 position far behind the Wii. and now with BluRay and a reduced price, Sony has pulled even with it. so at best, a successful "niche" product only. at worst, not even that.
what is really dying is the MS fantasy of world domination. it will devolve to an enterprise-focused company like Oracle. still make a ton of money. still controlling Windows, but essentially be forced to sell it so cheap it's their loss leader.
Posted by Alfiejr | December 11, 2009 11:35 PM
As you stated that.. Microsoft already admitted that they have screwed their Windows Mobile Product.
After knowing Windows Mobile Market share and Microsoft acceptance.
What you want to prove here? Is this a news? Are you giving any new findings?
Just adding bad publicity other than nothing…
Posted by Nicholas | December 12, 2009 1:01 AM
For Windows Mobile to recover the market share its serial mediocrity has lost it, Windows Mobile 7 will have to be not just as good as, but significantly better than, the NEXT versions of the Apple and Android OSs. People would need to seriously lust after 7 to persuade them to switch back.
Frankly, there is nothing in Microsoft's history in the last 15 years that suggests they are capable of this.
Posted by mikhailovitch | December 12, 2009 3:00 AM
IBM once ruled the computer world, holding a monopoly in industrial mainframe computers.
When the most popular hardware changed from being a mainframe computer to a Personal Computer, Microsoft stole IBM's lunch, and conquered the computer market.
But now the most popular hardware is downsizing again. Soon the mobile handset or "smartphone" will be the most popular client for accessing the internet. As this new transition occurred, Microsoft lost the market to more nimble players like Google (with its Android operating system), and Apple's iPhone.
Throughout all these years, IBM still holds its monopoly over mainframe computers. In fact, the US Justice Department was recently talking about anti-trust action against IBM as a result of its mainframe monopoly.
Microsoft still has its PC desktop monopoly. But its mobile strategy failed, and soon will come the inevitable announcement that Microsoft's Windows Mobile phone operating system has been discontinued.
Posted by Elaena Regensburg | December 12, 2009 3:11 AM
Windows mobile is losing ground? Yes , its totally not consumer friendly? Yes , lacking many modern features? Yes , Ugly? Yes , But dead? not a chance! , now MS have the motive to modernize it fearing Android dominance , and when they have the motive and will, history tells that they can produce excellent products , leveraging .NET runtime , SQL Server CE , Office mobile 2010 , if that is combined with multitouch + Zune HD IE Browser + better app store + new media player and totally modern and consumer friendly OS underneath , then developers will very quickly come back to the camp , just if they play it right this time , and this time is really very critical!
Posted by Bassam | December 12, 2009 8:38 AM
I never count Microsoft out of anything. We've seen time and time again how Microsoft keeps attacking a market until they find the secret recipe.
The latest example being the search engine. After many failed attempts, I can finally say that I am getting higher quality information from Bing than I am from Google (that is saying something).
Another example in the mobile market is Motorola. They were on the brink and I must admit I counted them out. Now they come roaring back with a quality phone DROID on an open OS Android. (Kudos to Motorola).
As the handset incorporates more features and becomes another variant of the general computer, the world swings into Microsoft's favor. Let's review in 6 months when Mobile 7 is launched.
Posted by LeeVi | December 12, 2009 10:27 AM
TALKING about making a product better is cheap (as is RECOMMENDING to make a better product), but actually MAKING it better is a whole different story ...
@Bassam: Wake me up when that has happened!
Posted by Financegozu | December 12, 2009 12:12 PM
Well, whatever. I need a phone that synchs with Exchange, esp with with my Outlook calendar. Ideally it would hook my personal, home Outlook calendar with my work calendar, which is on Exchange. I don't care what other bells and whistles it has--if it doesn't do that, it's useless to me. MS rules my work life and thus it rules my world, no matter how much fun an iPhone or an Android might be to play with.
Posted by Claudia | December 12, 2009 4:57 PM
Microsoft has the critical mass, dominating the market, yes, - the consumer market, As 90% of the buyers dont care, or dont know there is an option. And IF they knew, would it matter? I hope so!
ERODING is the word really!
F
Posted by Fredders | December 12, 2009 5:14 PM
Not Dead, but dying.
There's really nothing more to say about the phones - Gone.
Xbox is a different story. Sony's stupid moves on the Playstation (removing backward compatibility), should have opened the playing field wide. Why hasn't Microsoft taken full advantage of that blunder?
Then there's Windows, the Live Services, Office and Zune.
It's not their development teams. The problem lies at the top. They need to be looking at replacing Steve Ballmer with someone who has a "Technology Strategy" instead of simply a Financial one.
Posted by Gavin Bollard | December 13, 2009 9:31 PM