Let's Make a Deal! Please?

That's my gist of today's newest round of deal discussions among Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Time Warner, Yahoo and the guy handing out towels in the hotel bathroom. According to the Wall Street Journal, there's lots of talking about deals, but none are happening.

I normally refrain from commenting on somebody else's reporting, but it's new era journalism dawning. I keep reading about the death of old world journalism and the dawn of social media. OK, I'll get social with the Journal.

Are any readers old enough to remember Monty Hall and "Let's Make a Deal"? I ask, because it's Monty who inspires the approach to this post. I'll look at what's behind each of the doors for the deal the Journal identified.

Behind Door #1: Informal discussions between Microsoft and Facebook. The Journal says that Microsoft has inquired to see if Facebook would want to be acquired. Say that, again? Hasn't Microsoft already had the acquisition discussion with Facebook, ending in a puny investment that greatly overvalued the social network. Last time I checked, the puny investment was supposed to value Facebook so high that nobody would want to buy it. Of course, $15 billion would be a bargain compared to what Microsoft would have paid for Yahoo.

A Facebook acquisition makes sense if Microsoft wants an operating system in the sky—and a big property for selling ads. But Facebook would do something quite different for Microsoft than Yahoo. Integration would be a whole helluva lot easier, and Facebook is a popular, existing platform for applications, advertising and search. Facebook is to the Web what Windows is to the PC. Stylistically, Facebook is a model Microsoft understands.

Facebook, however, is like the antithesis to Microsoft's broader Live strategy, including the just-announced Live Mesh. Facebook is a closed-in environment like Windows—a platform unto itself. I don't see how Mesh meshes with Facebook. Mesh is every reason not to buy Facebook.

Behind Door #2: Google's ad/search deal with Yahoo. The Journal reports that Google executives are "divided" about providing services to Yahoo. Well, yeah. Google was only Yahoo's date to ruin the Microsoft courtship. Google was never interested in a serious Yahoo relationship. Yahoo is too much trouble. The parents (U.S. trustbusters) might fuss about Yahoo's beau. Google has seen Microsoft's problems from its Windows monopoly; 60 percent search share is enough for now.

Besides, Yahoo is courting Time Warner and others. But rumors that Microsoft and Yahoo might formally engage is reason enough for Google to hang around ready to make that deal--just in case.

Behind Door #3: Time Warner and Yahoo negotiations. Now that Microsoft has left in a huff, Time Warner can finally look for a place to unload for AOL. An AOL-Yahoo mashup is still one reasonable outcome. It's an amazing concept, really. Add together two struggling companies and come up with one stronger entity. Is this some kind of advanced math that I simply can't comprehend?

That said, I think the deal behind Door #3 is most likely to happen. But I wouldn't consider it necessarily the great prize. Looks like Monty has got bum deals behind each of the doors. He was offering cash (how's $33 for every Yahoo share) in an envelope rather than any of the doors. The envelope was easy money tossed away.