Don't Believe Microsoft Phone Rumors
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News Commentary. Sadly, I must say that the rumors of an Nvidia-based Microsoft smartphone—perhaps debuting at Mobile World Congress in 10 days—are almost certainly misguided. |
Unfortunately, I have to agree with Mary Jo Foley on this one. I say unfortunately because I would want to believe in a Microsoft phone. She ties the rumors to "reference implementations," which is sensible. Microsoft commonly does hardware reference designs in all kinds of product categories. I've seen plenty over the years.
Yesterday, my editor sent an e-mail asking if I had heard about the Nvidia-based Microsoft smartphone rumor. I was neck-deep in NPD numbers about Windows versions shipped on new PCs and netbooks (or mininotebooks). Rushed, I sent back this short response: "Microsoft does lots of prototypes as mockups for its hardware partners. The Nvidia chip collaboration could [as] easily be that as a new phone."
Broadpoint AmTech analysts Rob Sanderson & Mark McKechnie started the newest round of rumors. Late Feb. 5, sarcastic soul John Paczkowski e-mailed the text of their report. John has perfected punchy, sarcastic tech reporting as an art. His headline about the smartphone rumors: "Your Phone Has Just Committed an Illegal Operation and Will Now Shut Down." Classic.
"Multiple industry sources are telling us that MSFT is planning to launch a smartphone," the Broadpoint AmTech analysts wrote. "We are told it will be a 2H launch. We do not see this as landscape-changing, much like their Zune launch." They continue:
We find MSFT's strategy as a bit puzzling--may be frustration that the Windows Mobile product is not getting the mind-share / market share with RIMM, AAPL and even Google Android stealing the thunder. We suspect MSFT may alienate some of their existing Windows-Mobile customers who will now compete with them in hardware.
It's not puzzling for Microsoft to do reference designs, rather than create a smartphone. Longtime Microsoft observer Michael Gartenberg is convinced there will never be a Microsoft phone. On Feb. 5, he blogged:
I think it's pretty clear that we're not going to see a phone from Microsoft. I've talked about why we wouldn't see a Zune phone before but it's worth repeating. The business model of Windows Mobile is totally different than Zune and the Xbox (in fact, I'd argue that we'll see Microsoft get out of the Zune hardware business long before they become a direct handset vendor).
Microsoft reference designs tend to be what the company would produce if it were the manufacturer. Sometimes, manufacturers largely adopt these reference designs, as some did for PlaysForSure music players and early Windows Mobile smartphones. Other times, as with Origami portables, manufacturers do something quite different. If nothing else, the designs provide manufacturers with a blueprint for integrating hardware with Microsoft software.
That said, reference designs for others could just easily be for Microsoft. Right now, the company appears committed to providing the software and services platform only. Where I disagree with Mary Jo and Michael is the future. I do believe that Microsoft is working on a phone, if for no other reason than to explore the possibility of releasing one. Prototyping a phone in concept doesn't mean Microsoft would ever go into the handset business. But prototyping a handset and business model keeps options open, which is sensible.
Michael doesn't believe there is a Microsoft business model for cell phones. I would love to see a Microsoft phone that incorporated features from and integrated services with Zune and Xbox. There is a strong revenue case to be made for a Microsoft handset. In a November Silicon Alley Insider post, Dan Frommer explained how Microsoft would have to sell 300 million Windows Mobile licenses to make the same money that Apple did selling 6.9 million iPhones. Mobile handset shipments are expected to top 1.3 billion in 2009, with fewer than 250 million being smartphones. Microsoft can't sell enough licenses to match even one-quarter of iPhone revenues.
Dan makes a good case for a Microsoft phone, and I'm a believer that there should be one. But there likely won't be a Microsoft phone, I must now concede. Microsoft's mobile strategy has fallen too far behind competitors. Microsoft's mobile strategy, for better or worse, must be software, services and partnerships—or bust.
"How would MSFT bring this to market?" Michael asked. "There's no mass market for unlocked phones in the U.S. (just ask Nokia how hard it is to sell a high-end phone with no carrier)."
Nokia ships more cell phones than any other manufacturer, by a huge margin. In the third quarter, Nokia shipped 118 million mobile phones, for 38 percent market share. Second-ranked Samsung shipped 53 million units, for 14 percent market share. For smartphones, Nokia shipments were 15.5 million units, for 48.7 percent market share. U.S. residents would hardly know, for the few Nokia handsets carried here. Nokia doesn't have the carrier relationships here. While its E and N series handsets are among the best in their categories, Americans rarely see them. The U.S., Japanese and South Korean markets share some similarities that have prevented Nokia from gaining significant share there.
The point: Microsoft can't succeed in the phone business without carrier relationships, and it hasn't any. Apple launched the iPhone in June 2007 through a single carrier. AT&T assumed great risk, even with Apple's reputation for product magic. To get AT&T, Apple agreed to an exclusive distribution deal. Since then, Apple has greatly expanded the number of carriers outside the United States, extending iPhone availability to more than 70 countries. If Microsoft released a phone tomorrow, Apple would have at least a three-year lead before a Microsoft handset would have enough carriers. Meanwhile, the company would alienate its dwindling number of partners. Heck, Microsoft can't even take Zune global. Phones would be much tougher.
Here's a tip: When (OK, if ever) rumors start circulating about Microsoft talking to carriers, then will be the time to believe that a phone is soon coming. For now, Microsoft should:
- Skin Windows Mobile with a fresh user interface. It's not a bad operating system. For developers, there is a lot that's good there. Major problem is the UI.
- Release a functional Web browser, at least as good as mobile versions of Apple's Safari and Google Chrome.
- Launch the long-rumored application store, but extend service to other handset operating systems.
- Make new services, including application store and synchronization, available to carriers; cut them in on the profits.
That last is perhaps most important to do now. Carriers want to make money on the actual services delivered over their data networks. Data access fees are just starters. But most carriers have failed at their own services efforts. What are they getting from Apple, with App Store or iTunes? Not much.
Microsoft should offer a broad suite of mobile services that any carrier can adopt and brand. Revenue would be shared. Microsoft would benefit by establishing better carrier relationships (should it ever want to do a phone) and offer the majority of carriers without iPhone an alternative set of services available for any handset. I'll blog more on this idea closer to Mobile World Congress.
[Please send your tips or rumors to watchtips at live.com]
Comments (24)
Deep in the bowels of the Redmond campus, "R&D" has produced yet another breakthrough device. It combines the SPOT watch with leftover hardware from the Stinger phone project, and adds a few items borrowed from the Surface project. Here is a spy photo of a recent focus group trial:
http://tinyurl.com/de8o9g
Robbie Bach is pumped about its prospects. "It blows away the iPhone", he said in comments after the focus group left with their $50 vouchers. "We expect to roll this out in Q3 of 2013, if Steve and I still have jobs here".
Posted by Fly | February 6, 2009 1:56 PM
As for Michael Gartenberg's quote, he makes it sound as if WM's "business model" can't change or, heaven for bid, do a 180. Remember, folks, M$ is readily admitting that they see SaaS as the next transition, which means there's nothing stopping them from releasing their own hardware that's optimized for their SaaS business model.
Moreover, it seems that vertical mobile/smartphone makers are the ones who are doing the best: Apple, RIM, Nokia via Symbian. Personally, I think M$ is fine with letting the reference model approach take center stage as they move towards WM7. After that, however, I think M$ will be under tremendous pressure to produce a M$ branded, vertically produced phone, especially if WM8 is based on this Midori O/S, which will for the most part give them a clean break from WM and possibly a compelling reason to jump into producing the mobile hardware device(s).
Between now and WM8's release, M$ will integrate the Zune features into the WM UI and release and refine these Sky* services being wrapped around mobile computing. In addition, the hardware underlying the "reference model" for WM8 will probably be released at a time when mobile computing truly arrives at the point of being able to replace an entire desktop for many people via a highly integrated docking system connected to a large external display and speakers.
Posted by jay | February 6, 2009 5:28 PM
Doesn't Microsoft own Danger, maker of the T-Mobile Sidekick? If Microsoft wanted to make a new phone, they could start by partnering with T-Mobile.
Posted by JohnJ | February 6, 2009 6:23 PM
Lets hope a M$ phone will have better security than Windows:
Computer Viruses Close
Municipal Courts
http://www.myfoxhouston.com/dpp/news/090206_muni_courts_close_viruses
"HOUSTON - Sick computers in the City of Houston's Municipal Court system are forcing the city to temporarily shut down all Municipal Court operations until at least Monday.
The shut down means Houston police can't check for outstanding warrants when they pull over someone, and no one can be bailed out of jail. Officers are also being instructed to hand write tickets for non violent offenders instead of taking them downtown.
Gwendolyn Goins, a spokes person for the Houston Municipal Courts, says 20 computers started behaving irratically Wednesday. Despite efforts to repair them, by Thursday there were at least 20 more computers malfunctioning.
Goins says the city's downtown Municipal Courthouse and all five of the municipal court's satellite locations are affected. The wait times have increased but Goins says they have increased staff to serve everyone as quickly as possible.
On Friday morning, the departments involved-- including the Information Technology department and the Mayor's office-- were on a long conference call assessing the severity of the problem. The city is taking into consideration the security of public files, and the importance of keeping current files from being corrupted."
Posted by Chips B Malroy | February 6, 2009 7:18 PM
Way to hijack a thread chumps mc moronoy.
That story was about as informative as any of your trash talk. Which is to say not at all.
No mention of which systems were compromised.
No mention Of the targeted OS.
No mention of what anti-malware (if any) systems were in place.
Just the story about an outbreak in a post about a f&*(**S*&ng phone.
I'd call you a tool but as a tool you'd be about as useful as a bag of hammers in a china shop.
Posted by SHiloh Norman | February 7, 2009 4:20 AM
@Chumps
And I notice you made no mention of the security flaw in the the G-Phone.
http://www.modmygphone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2891
Don't that thing Run Linux?
See? we can all play the off topic post game.
Posted by Shilo Norman | February 7, 2009 4:25 AM
I don't really care if they do or don't. I wouldn't buy one. Would be pissed off if they bought Blackberry, since then I would have to get a different phone (well maybe once my current one is really old). Suspect a MS phone will be about as popular as the Zune. Should put the final knife to the heart of WM since they will piss off all their partners by competing against them (and using their ill gotten monopoly money to do it). Impressed with what WM users will put up with as far as crashes and lock ups go; they seem to lead the market in that.
Posted by smist08 | February 7, 2009 7:56 AM
@Chumps;
You are so damned predictable, once again your comments and pointless links. Say, why don't you just pack up and get your own useless blog and then you can rant all day on how much you hate Microsoft, or for that matter, anything that isn't Linux-ba$sed. You'd have a lot to ramble on about, wouldn't you.
I don't know how many reader$ you would get, I mean other than your two or po$$ibly three friend$ who would join you.
Shilo wrote:
"I'd call you a tool but as a tool you'd be about as useful as a bag of hammers in a china shop."
I have to agree with him. Chump$, are you gonna also acuse me of being him as well?
Posted by Diamond Dave | February 7, 2009 8:13 AM
What a name, Goblin.... Now I get it. It stands for He is Goblin Chips's junk. You too fruit cakes really crack me up. I can almost hear your lisps when reading your silly comments. You write like a couple of chicks. Who wears the pants in your relationship? I guess you were happy to move to California and getting married. Maybe you guys should work so closely together now that you are married becuase your gay pride shows through in all your jibberish.
As for your articles.. Funny how they ALL come from Anti-microsoft sites. But what is even more irrelevant is the few articles you are providing against the massive installation base for windows. Why don't you work out the percentages. You need about 100,000 more of those silly links from creditible sources to even match the install base between Windows and STinkus (linux) or Apple. It is like saying my here are two articles on this Ford vehicle recall and let me compare that to the Kia Rio recalls that have sold about 100 cars worldwide.
So please spare everyone on here with your alternative lifesytle reporting. I think we are all a little more sissy from reading your posts
Posted by The real truth about the Chips and Globlin love affair | February 7, 2009 1:01 PM
What a name, Goblin.... Now I get it. It stands for He is Goblin Chips's junk. You too fruit cakes really crack me up. I can almost hear your lisps when reading your silly comments. You write like a couple of chicks. Who wears the pants in your relationship? I guess you were happy to move to California and getting married. Maybe you guys should work so closely together now that you are married becuase your gay pride shows through in all your jibberish.
As for your articles.. Funny how they ALL come from Anti-microsoft sites. But what is even more irrelevant is the few articles you are providing against the massive installation base for windows. Why don't you work out the percentages. You need about 100,000 more of those silly links from creditible sources to even match the install base between Windows and STinkus (linux) or Apple. It is like saying my here are two articles on this Ford vehicle recall and let me compare that to the Kia Rio recalls that have sold about 100 cars worldwide.
So please spare everyone on here with your alternative lifesytle reporting. I think we are all a little more sissy from reading your posts
Posted by The real truth about the Chips and Globlin love affair | February 7, 2009 1:01 PM
@Real truth
Grow up.
-
But thanks for proving my point about what is happening here.
Posted by Goblin | February 7, 2009 1:07 PM
@Goblin:
Nice link that on Nato, guess they can't protect Windows as well. It seems that Microsoft will stoop to new lows in trying to stop the discussion about how unsafe to use Windows on the internet. I don't know about you, but with me, they should have been smart enough to know that I am not going anyplace. They cannot (M$ and their $hill army) intimidate me, they can type their insults until their fingertips bleed, for as little good as it will do them. I did notice the common tactic is now to pretend to use Linux/solaris/BSD, and then go on the defend M$, like anyone would really fall for that one.
@Andrew Da Costa:
Isn't it about time to tell us about all the free computers, paid plane fare to the USA, free hotel rooms, how you get paid through a 3rd party to comment, and take a weight off your consense, if you have one. I don't know if this is you, doing all the insult posting, but whoever it is, most readers here will come to the conclusion, it is you. Especially since all these new posters (handles/clones/sock puppets) come after someone asks you to explain about the free computers. Do you want Micro$oft, which compensates you, thereby you represent, to be associated by readers with those who post in the insulting style of 12 year olders?
Lastly Andre, its only on eweek that this about your freebies has been posted, with the exception of Goblins sites. It could get nasty, with the freebie/Mac pleading links you have posted, showing up all over the internet to discredit you, Do you want that? You can end it now, and come clean, if you wanted to do that.
Posted by chips b malroy | February 7, 2009 1:18 PM
@Andre, adacosta, Mr. Dee, and other handles,
While I am on the subject, Tell us about John Obeto, who also got a free laptop from M$. Since you write article's on John's Obeto "just the facts" type website.
Remember, the truth is that the links are out there, with your free from M$ computers, with you begging for a Mac, and Mac Office software. Now Goblin might drop the matter with you, but I will not. Your credibility here is shot, and if you don't come fully clean soon, I promise you I will post the links to your guilt, starting at Cnet, and then moving on. Time is running out, unless that is what you want?
Posted by chips b. malroy | February 7, 2009 2:14 PM
20 Million PCs Infected With Conficker Worm Virus
http://www.currentworldnews.net/2009/01/26/20-million-pcs-infected-with-conficker-worm-virus/
"The virus attacks computers running Windows operating systems, and once on a computer’s hard drive it makes life miserable for the user.
The virus, which is yet to be stopped, is estimated to have infected more than 1.2 million business networks, and is slowing down computers all over the globe.
To date, efforts to stop the virus from spreading have been futile, leaving computer experts stumped.
The virus spreads by various methods, including email, memory sticks and more."
Posted by chips b malroy | February 7, 2009 2:39 PM
Ha,ha,ha
Hi Chips,
Diamond Dave(aka Doug and his van), Shiloh Norman and The Deal (another puppet)= despairing.
The time of launch seven is close and 'they' have to destroy any opinions against MS.
The problem is they are only 3 or 4.
Do you remember MS' good times? They had 6 or more simultaneous shills...
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Posted by Marco | February 7, 2009 4:37 PM
Google offers 1.5million books to download FREE onto your mobile phone
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1138164/Google-offers-1-5million-books-download-FREE-mobile-phone.html
It is one of the world’s biggest libraries,
but fits neatly into the palm of your hand.
Google has unveiled a free service that
allows users to access a wealth of
classic books on their mobile phones.
The internet firm is offering 1.5million electronic novels to download, including classics such as Oliver Twist, Emma and The Jungle Book.
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Good for us!
Posted by Marco | February 7, 2009 4:45 PM
You could forget MS and its greed, there are other alternatives which would allow your company to earn money in the current crisis.
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Google phone helps maker post solid Q4, new products coming
http://www.networkworld.com/news/2009/020609-google-phone-helps-maker-post.html?hpg1=bn
The fourth quarter launch of T-Mobile's G1, the first smartphone to use Google's Android OS, helped the handset's maker nearly meet its earnings targets despite a sharp global economic downturn.
"We have several new products to introduce in Barcelona," said Cheng Hui-ming, chief financial officer of the company, during a conference call.
Some analysts on the conference call asked if HTC will launch a second Google Android-based smartphone this year, but he declined to comment.
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'...If we do that we achieve two objectives at once: To expose MS and to uncover its Shills, when they are attacking in desperation.
Posted by Marco | February 7, 2009 5:04 PM
Ubuntu desktop apparently scares Microsoft
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13505_3-10159100-16.html
Quote:
Ubuntu must be giving Microsoft fits on the desktop. That's the only reason I can come up with for Microsoft's LinkedIn search for a new director of open-source strategy, with a focus on the desktop:
The Windows Competitive Strategy team is looking for a strong team member to lead Microsoft's global desktop competitive strategy as it relates to open source competitors.
Given Red Hat's relative inaction on the desktop, this position likely will focus on Novell and Canonical's Ubuntu, but of these two, only Ubuntu's desktop is really catching the imagination of the market.
And, frankly, only Ubuntu is really changing the game around desktop enough for Microsoft to need to staff a position to counter the threat. Novell's Suse Linux Enterprise Desktop is good but it's somewhat staid (i.e., enterprise-like): locked-down and very much conservative.
The Microsoft job description requires the candidate to "think strategically [and to] put yourself in the mindset of our competitors." In other words, the candidate needs to think about bludgeoning Microsoft with a free price tag, a global community of determined developers, and absolutely no sacred profit cows like Windows or Office to protect.
Sounds like fun.
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This only is beginning
Posted by Marco | February 7, 2009 7:12 PM
@The childish idiot Marco writes:
"Ha,ha,ha
Hi Chips,
Diamond Dave(aka Doug and his van)..." Wrong again Zipperhead -- Maybe this Doug guy isn't a bad fellow if you think so highly of accusing me of him.He must hate mindless trolls too. The list is getting longer here on this site for you girls.
Like I said before, idiot-savant, it's the same bull$h*t predictable tactic you guys pull. Least you buddies, Chumps and Goblin doesn't sound like a frickin parrot -- Think for yourself, clown.
_________________________________________________
Chumps wrote:
"Remember, the truth is that the links are out there, with your free from M$ computers, with you begging for a Mac, and Mac Office software. Now Goblin might drop the matter with you, but I will not. Your credibility here is shot, and if you don't come fully clean soon, I promise you I will post the links to your guilt, starting at Cnet, and then moving on. Time is running out, unless that is what you want?"
WTF? Don't have a life, loser, I mean making idle threats of going after this Andre fellow? What in the hell did he do to you, give the clap or something?
My first assumption of you was a mindless troll, still is, but let's also add a threatening loud mouth bully to your credentials. You're an idiot with many issues to go after a guy living in Jamaca, how in the hell can a guy that gets some sort of old laptop upset you so?
You really are a bag of hammers, chumps.
Posted by Diamond Dave | February 7, 2009 7:28 PM
Google Announces Fourth Quarter And Fiscal Year 2008 Results
http://www.google.com/intl/en/press/pressrel/revenues_q408.html
“Google performed well in the fourth quarter, despite an increasingly difficult economic environment. Search query growth was strong, revenues were up in most verticals, and we successfully contained costs,” said Eric Schmidt, CEO of Google. “It's unclear how long the global downturn will last, but our focus remains on the long term, and we'll continue to invest in Google's core search and ads business as well as in strategic growth areas such as display, mobile, and enterprise.”
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It was something different to MS, was not it?.
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Diamond Dave(aka Doug and his van) :......Whatever
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'...If we do that we achieve two objectives at once: To expose MS and to uncover its Shills, when they are attacking in desperation
Posted by Marco | February 7, 2009 7:43 PM
________________________________________
What a name, Goblin.... Now I get it. It stands for He is Goblin Chips's junk
_________________________________________\
I Loled
Posted by CC.Torment | February 7, 2009 8:07 PM
@smist08 :
Funny. I been using a WM6.1 phone for over a year and have yet to experience a single lock up.
Blackberry is a fine device. The company gave me a bold, but I got sick of carrying it and my Razr around. I needed a smartphone so I got a samsung with WM6.1. There are things that could be improved but for the most part it just works. I might try a storm when they get the whole touch screen interface perfected. And that's only because I want the large screen.
Posted by Shilo Norman | February 7, 2009 8:11 PM
Free Ubuntu book tops 150,000 downloads
http://www.desktoplinux.com/news/NS6967417549.html
Keir Thomas informs us that his new Ubuntu book has been downloaded 150,000 times. Freely downloadable in PDF format and available from Amazon in paperback form for $10, MacFreda Publishing's 164-page Ubuntu Pocket Guide and Reference offers a beginner's overview of the popular distro.
Ubuntu Pocket Guide and Reference "assumes zero Linux knowledge," says the author. Written for anybody switching to Ubuntu, it is said to be particularly aimed at former Windows users. Published by MacFreda earlier this month, and distributed on Amazon, the book was recently made available for free on Ubuntupocketguide.com. Apparently, this approach has stirred considerable interest, says the author.
"In the few days since the website went live, it's been downloaded over 150,000 times, and is making a huge stir within the community," writes Thomas, who has written two other Ubuntu books, including the recent Ubuntu Kung Fu (see image at right). "However, around two thirds of the visitors to the website are Windows users, and I think my book might be providing the 'final piece of the jigsaw' for people who have been thinking of making the switch to Ubuntu."
Ubuntu Pocket Guide and Reference leads new users through installation and hardware configuration, and then explores the Ubuntu filesystem and file manager, says Thomas. The book then covers the command line, software management, and system security, including firewall configuration, antivirus installation, and data encryption. The book is said to cover Ubuntu 8.04 while looking forward to "8.10 and beyond."
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Why answers those who do not say nothing but insults?.
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'...If we do that we achieve two objectives at once: To expose MS and to uncover its Shills, when they are attacking in desperation
Posted by Marco | February 7, 2009 8:38 PM
Microsoft must be looking to give away another couple of free laptops this month, and there is lots of competition for them lol.
Andre better show up soon or he will not get a newer model. lol.
Posted by KitKat | February 7, 2009 10:12 PM