iPhone: Enough Already

I didn't use the word anticipation because, until people actually line up to buy the device, no one can really predict early demand. One thing is certain: The hype is out of control, which could actually hurt the iPhone at launch.

How excessive is the hype? For the iPhone-weary, Engadget offers RSS feeds with no iPhone news. A Google search for "iPhone" brings back nearly 9,000 news stories, a huge chunk of them just from this week. Meanwhile, iPhone sightings have become news stories, with bloggers posting pictures of Apple employees using their iPhones on the train to work. And CNBC has stirred up the debate over whether or not a highly read technology columnist will give the iPhone a good review.

Get a life, please! It's a freakin' cell phone.

The level of excitement about the iPhone is very similar to the level of excitement that surrounded the launch of Windows 95. In fact, before the iPhone, I don't recall another product that had been hyped as much, except for Windows 95. The big difference? Microsoft's own marketing fanned the flames of the Windows 95-hype, whereas the enthusiasm for the iPhone is more organic. The blogosphere surely is a factor and it has likely given Apple billions of dollars in free advertising.

Not that Apple is shirking its marketing obligations. At the end of May, the first iPhone commercials hit the small screen. Part of Apple's secret formula for the iPod's success: advertising and lots of it.

What other MP3 player have you ever seen advertised on TV, at least in the United States? It isn't just the cell phone market that's crowded; its advertising market is crowded as well. Verizon Wireless' marketing is particularly aggressive, including heavy rotations of commercials for the SongID feature that lets consumers identify and download music using their cell phones. Apple is wise to advertise, even with all the hype.

But where will all the hype lead? One expectation is long lines outside Apple and Cingular stores, just like the lines that formed when Windows 95 became available nearly 12 years ago. Everyone assumes the lines will be long—me included—but what if they're not? Or what if there are more gawkers than buyers? Nobody can say which it will be until the truly obsessed begin laying down their sleeping bags outside Apple and Cingular stores.

The good news is that Apple will have people lining up at the more civilized hour of 6 p.m. rather than Microsoft's midnight launch for Windows 95.

Yesterday, I sent an IM to Michael Gartenberg, JupiterResearch research director, about Windows 95, just as he hit post on a blog about the similarity of Win95 and iPhone hype. Like minds, I wrote.

"Great minds," Michael replied. I won't argue with that.

He nicely summed up why the iPhone—and not another mobile phone—is generating so much excitement:

"Windows 95 was a sea change, it performed the same functions for the most part as Windows 3.1 but did them far more elegantly (and on par with many of the features that had formerly differentiated Mac OS of that era). We're seeing some of that here with the iPhone as well."

I'll go even further and say that Windows 95 put the "personal" in the personal computer. Apple's new mobile is poised to do something similar. Cell phones are hugely personal devices, but user interface problems put limits on just how personal they can be. This afternoon, I got e-mail from Apple with link to an iPhone guided-tour video. Based on the video, this is one personal device like no other cell phone I've used (and that would be many).

I've looked at the iPhone with skeptical eyes for some time. But my skepticism is decreasing. This week's Apple announcements about the device's battery life and screen quality dismiss two of my biggest reservations about the iPhone. I'm still uncertain about usability, but the answer won't really come until early buyers use the iPhone for at least a couple of weeks.

It's worth it to Apple to be dismissing some of the negative speculative hype about the iPhone—most of which comes from observers that never handled the device:

• Lack of IT support: If the iPhone is as popular as the hype suggests, it's coming through the enterprise back door. IT didn't embrace BlackBerrys, Palms or Treos with arms wide open, either. Employees bought the devices and used them for work and personal purposes. "Official" support came much later. Is the iPhone ready for the enterprise? Duh, of course. It's a cell phone.
• No Exchange support: There's presumption about this, but Apple hasn't explicitly said. Mac OS X's Mail offers marvelous Exchange support and the iPhone client could be similar. If not, what's the big deal? Apple's iPhone supports IMAP and packs a full Web browser. If not IMAP, what about Outlook Web Access? I use the browser on my Nokia N95 to check e-mail. It's loads less hassle because the spam stays on the server.
• Security is deficient: How can analysts who have never used the iPhone trash its security? People plunking down six C bills for an iPhone aren't going to lose it. Employees are more likely to lose a laptop or a bulky corporate smart phone loaded with sensitive data. The greater security risk is going to be from portable device loss than from unsupported security policies. Actually, iPhone might be more secure than some other mobiles because of what's rumored to be missing, like Flash and (hopefully) JavaScript.

If the iPhone really turns out to be another Windows 95, the assault on IT is inevitable and will be soon in coming. I'm assuming the device will live up to the hype, which will be hard given how much hype there is.

I'm still undecided about getting one. I love my Nokia N95 for one, and I expect demand could exceed supply. I've toyed with covering the launch from Apple's first retail store at Tysons Corner mall in Virginia, since I covered the store's opening more than six years ago. But if I stake out the store as a journalist, I'll probably lose any chance of buying an iPhone as a consumer.

Will you buy the iPhone? If so, right away? And, if you plan to buy one right away, what's your buying strategy? Please share with the class. Our comment lines are open.

Related Posts:

• An iPhone Skeptic Speaks Out, Microsoft Watch, June 11, 2007
• An Apple a Day..., Microsoft Watch, June 11, 2007
• Microsoft Scratches the Surface, Microsoft Watch, May 30, 2007
• A Smarter Smart Phone?, Microsoft Watch, May 22, 2007
• Tell Me About Dial Tone 2.0, Microsoft Watch, March 15, 2007
• Where's the 'You' in iPhone?, Microsoft Watch, January 10, 2007
• Apple's Son of Newton, Microsoft Watch, January 9, 2007