Microsoft's Mobile Madness

Surprisingly, the math adds up against Microsoft, which, for all its recent mobile acquisitions and hostile Yahoo takeover attempt, isn't mobile enough. Microsoft has got the right idea about what's needed to win in the mobile market, but the company moves too slowly.

This morning, my Linux-Watch colleague Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols, suggested to me that Microsoft really announced nothing at this year's Mobile World Congress, which is underway now in Barcelona. I rebuffed him, because of the Danger acquisition, Sony Ericsson deal and expanded Windows Live developer platform.

But on deeper consideration, for once I agree with SJVN. The big news was everywhere else. Microsoft's mobile announcements are nothing compared to others, particularly Google's search deal with Nokia.

Here's the problem: Microsoft's recent acquisitions, including Danger, and Mobile World Congress announcements are about the future. Other significant mobile announcements are about today. When is Microsoft going to get the hell out of the 1990s? The company built its businesses on promises—what Microsoft would do tomorrow as distraction from competitors' announcements today. That strategy worked, for marketing purposes, during Microsoft's infancy. Tomorrow promises are now ingrained in the Microsoft corporate lexicon. The Internet Age is fast moving&151;it's about today—while Microsoft lumbers along like an aged elephant.

It's madness that Microsoft's mobile strategy isn't more advanced, particularly since its three-screen approach—mobile phones, PCs and TVs—is right on. For what reason did Microsoft buy ScreenTonic or TellMe? I've got a question for Microsoft, posed by its now abandoned marketing motto: "Where do you want to go today?" Microsoft talks loads about tomorrow, when competition is today. It's corporate madness—no, utter delusional behavior.

The future of mobiles is PC replacement. It's an inevitable outcome and one Microsoft simply isn't accepting. Microsoft's denial is madness, too.

The cellular phone market is:

• Enormously bigger than that for PCs. For every PC in use there are three cell phones, based on analyst estimates of 3 million mobiles in 2007.
• Captive, as most people carry mobiles most of the time; but not PCs.
• Personal, because people care more about their cell phones than PCs. Who asks to be buried with their computers, but it's a common request for mobiles.
• More global, as more people are likely to have cell phones than PCs, particularly in emerging markets.
• More connected than PCs, as cellular services reach many places than does the wired or Wi-Fi Internet.

The advertising potential is enormous, particularly because of search. Carriers have been somewhat cautious about placing mobile ads, because of customer concerns. But search is one place where consumers are used to advertising and may even welcome it. Nielsen Online calls local search the "top search objective," and that's one place where local advertising or contextual keywords would be beneficial to mobile users. There, Google is quickly pushing ahead of Microsoft.

As for the broader advertising potential, sometimes the name says it all. Last year, IDC released a report, "U.S. Mobile Marketing and Advertising 2007-2011 Forecast: The Potential Actually Exceeds the Hype." Several analysts estimate that the mobile advertising market will reach $10 billion by 2010. I think those estimates are too conservative. Increased competition in the mobile content market will drive faster mobile advertising initiatives, particularly as Google, Microsoft and Yahoo vie to be there first.

Additionally, the Web 2.0 platform is rapidly shifting its directional focus. There's too much Microsoft headwind on the PC, but not on the mobile phone, particularly with Symbian and not Windows Mobile being the dominant operating system. Web-based applications, either hosted solely on the Net or using light local connected clients, are more suited to mobiles, because of their device character and the missing Microsoft monopoly.

Microsoft talks, but, for example, Google and Yahoo mobile search announcements walk. Microsoft promises won't hold back competitors. It's madness to believe your own promises over and over again, when there is little or nothing behind them.

See, SJVN and I can agree on something.

Related Posts:

• 'Danger, Will Robinson!', Microsoft Watch, Feb. 11, 2008
• MSN Direct Goes Mobile, Microsoft Watch, Feb. 11, 2008
• Windows Mobile Flys the X1, Microsoft Watch, Feb. 11, 2008
• Mobile Search is Hot, Microsoft Watch, Jan. 17, 2008
• Microsoft Plays for the Third Screen, Microsoft Watch, Dec. 10, 2007
• Android: What You Are to Google?, Microsoft Watch, Nov. 15, 2007
• TellMe about Dial Tone 2.0, Microsoft Watch, March 15, 2007