Microsoft's Pie in the Skymarket?

I can't confirm Microsoft's mobile marketplace plans because yesterday was a holiday here in the United States. But an obscure job posting, from ComputerJobs.com, suggests something is coming. From the posting:

"Job Title: Senior Product Manager—Skymarket. This is a unique opportunity and time of rapid change in the mobile industry for a Senior Product Manager in the Mobile Communications Services team to drive the launch of a v1 marketplace service for Windows Mobile."

Among the requirements: "Experience launching v1 products in the mobile industry." Now how many candidates could meet that requirement?

GOT A TIP OR RUMOR?

I saw a blog post on Apple Insider early yesterday, but looks like Microsoft enthusiast blogger Long Zheng had something on Aug. 31. As is my writing custom, I didn't read their posts before doing my own. I prefer to form my own opinions before being influenced by others.

I presume that the job listing is legitimate, but I remain cautious without confirmation. Even if it's not legit, my analysis stands, because Microsoft should be doing a mobile marketplace. I'll start by offering praise to Microsoft, which may or may not be deserved. The job listing is a marketing coup—and it would be disappointing to learn that it was an accidental one. It also wouldn't be surprising to learn the listing isn't real—meaning coming from Microsoft.

The job listing was dated yesterday, U.S. Labor Day, when there's not typically much tech news. Yet the posting generated lost of blog buzz for Microsoft, which says "me, too" without saying it. On Thursday, Google announced the Android Marketplace, supporting its forthcoming mobile platform. Google responded to Apple's iPhone App Store.

I suppose somebody at Microsoft woke up on Friday morning, cursed Google and decided to create Skymarket; hence yesterday's job listing. What a great marketing accident, if Microsoft stumbled into it. But I'd like to think the job listing's timing was deliberate. C`mon, when does Microsoft put product codenames in job listings? If the listing's timing is deliberate and intended partly for marketing purposes, my compliments to Microsoft.

But there's another way to tell the story. When I went back to review the listing early this morning I got this: "The job 'Product Manager' has expired." Why would the job listing expire after one day? The aforementioned marketing propaganda would be good reason, and fake listing would be just as reasonable. After all, being repetitive, when does Microsoft put product codenames in job listings?

By the way, a separate job listing, also dated Sept. 1, hasn't expired: Director, Mobile Office Communications—Services, who would "work closely with the SkyLine, SkyMarket and SkyBox teams as well as with the Office Live team to ensure that we are leveraging all the resources across Microsoft."

Late Might As Well Be Never
Microsoft should do something like Skymarket, and it can't come to market soon enough. Concurrent Windows Mobile 7 release is too long. Apple has grabbed market lead that will be tough for Microsoft to recapture in 12 to 18 months. Simply stated, App Store makes iPhone the defining platform of the 21st Century. But the platform's dominance, like it was for iPod/iTunes and music, depends on Apple's execution and competitors' response.

Like the PC, the cell phone's destiny is inevitable. The mobile phone and MIDs (Mobile Internet Devices) are the future of computing. The PC's day has come, and it is rapidly passing. Shall I repeat that, because I'm not wrong? Mobiles will replace computers as the most widely used personal devices; there is inevitable role reversal coming. The PC won't immediately go away, but its relevance will dramatically decline.

But which company will come up with the magic formula for taking the capital P out of PC's "personal" and put it into mobiles? The leading platform of the future doesn't run Symbian OS or Windows Mobile but iPhone 2.0. Apple's App Store is the reason why. The iPhone is that next capital P "personal" device.

Cell phones are the most personal devices that people carry. App Store provides a means of personalizing the device's uses. More importantly, the apps are contextual. The store is always open for business. Twenty-four seven. If you're bored waiting for the bus, the App Store could provide applications for connectivity to friends or games to play. What's Wii to you when the Metro is late and you can't get home? App Store application Super Monkey Ball could be great fun in that bored and waiting context, and iPhone's motion sensors make playing fun without a controller.

App Store provides applications to a captive audience, because pretty much everybody carries a cell phone. Software distribution is built-in to the phone, which has enough data capacity to quickly download applications. Apple provides a mechanism by which developers can sell their software, which a digital rights management mechanism protects from overt or casual piracy. Windows should have a store like this for its zillions of applications.

Microsoft can't let Apple turn App Store into Apple's killer application. Worse, Google will have a mobile marketplace, too. Next week is too late. Next year might as well be NASA's 2018 for returning to the moon. A Windows Mobile marketplace must be a now service.

Some advice to Microsoft: Launch something now. It's unusual for me to recommend that Microsoft release something half-baked. But doughy bread will be better than none. Microsoft already has the Xbox Live and Zune marketplaces, both of which distribute rights-protected content and games to non-PC devices. Would it be that difficult to tool up .NET or Silverlight apps or widgets from the same Live infrastructure for Windows Mobile devices?

Apple's mobile and supporting application marketplace are, like iPod, part of a tightly controlled, closed architecture. If iPhone wins over enough developers for long enough, Windows Mobile won't catch up. Successful platforms share several important characteristics. The most important, and it's embodied by Windows: Third parties make lots of money. Apple has got a store with captive distribution on a popular device that pays developers now.

Related to the primary characteristic: Distribution, which Apple has with iPod and is building with iPhone. Microsoft can't afford to lose developers to iPhone. The more apps for the iPhone, the greater likelihood the platform will succeed and the more developers that will create more compelling applications. As Windows has shown, the resulting feedback loop eventually reaches a state of near perpetual motion.

I've got more to say about Microsoft's mobile strategy, but that's topic for another post.

[Please send your tips or rumors to watchtips at live.com].