The Problem with Netbooks
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News Analysis. The market for netbooks is an artificial construct, a subset of notebooks that isn't a sustainably distinct category. |
It's time somebody said this before Microsoft makes some really dumb-ass development decisions about Office 14. Earlier this week, Stephen Elop, Microsoft's Business division president, said that Office 14 would be optimized for netbooks.
Stephen made the comments during Tuesday's Morgan Stanley Technology Conference. Office 14 could ship as early as 2010. He told attendees:
We have some very specific opportunities we believe with Wave 14 of Office to do even better in terms of netbook attach and the overall economic model for that platform. So there are new ways of packaging, and monetizing SKUs, again, without saying too much, that are unique and new opportunities in the netbook marketplace that we believe we'll be able to capture with Wave 14. So we're excited about what we can do there as we go forward.
I predict that netbooks either won't exist as a separate notebook category by the time the productivity suite ships or they will become something different really incapable of running Office 14. Surely that prediction will strike some people as nutty. After all, Gartner forecasts that laptop shipments will rise 2.7 percent year over year in 2009. Growth jumps to 9 percent when adding in netbooks, which Gartner refers to as mininotebooks.
Understanding Netbook Origins
But when looking at the characteristics of the mininotebook market and its origins, my prediction makes lots of sense. I'll start with reasons why netbooks even exist today:
OLPC. The One Laptop Per Child project created what arguably were the first mininotebooks. The project promised (and failed) to provide $100 laptops for schools in many emerging markets. OLPC demonstrated that:
- Laptops could be produced more cheaply.
- Less performance could be enough for some people.
- Wintel wasn't necessary (or so it seemed early on).
From the start, both Intel and Microsoft had problems with OLPC. Intel had its own program for producing low-cost notebooks for emerging markets. Microsoft looked at a potential competitive threat, as the low-cost notebooks ran Linux and not Windows. Executives from both companies dissed the project early on.
While OLPC produced laptops that cost closer to $200, the project demonstrated there was at least a market for low-cost, low-powered portables. Asus and Acer quickly followed OLPC's lead by producing commercially similar mininotebooks.
Windows Vista. Netbooks would have less distinct character if not for Windows Vista. Design decisions Microsoft made in 2003 helped spur on mininotebook adoption in 2008. Windows Vista demanded much more processing and graphics power than early netbooks could deliver. This limitation and OLPC's market example led manufacturers to ship Linux and Windows XP on early mininotebooks. Microsoft would later license Windows XP Home specially for netbooks.
Mininotebooks might otherwise have been treated as smaller cheaper portables if not for:
- Non-Windows Vista operating systems
- Large percentage of Linux shipped
- SSDs and 7-inch displays
There already existed a subnotebook category within the laptop market, standardized around 11-inch and 12-inch displays. But these more powerful and costly portables ran Windows Vista or XP Pro—and most certainly not Linux. Little more than 1 percent of mininotebooks ship with Windows Vista.
As Stephen rightly explained during the Morgan Stanley event: "When netbooks really got started, it was mostly a Linux play, and Windows was nowhere to be seen. If you look at the attach rate of Windows today to netbooks, it's over 80 percent and growing rapidly."
Economic crisis. Officially, the U.S. recession started in December 2007, around the same time that mininotebook sales started climbing. IDC estimates that manufacturers shipped about half of all mininotebooks in 2008, about 5 million units, during the fourth quarter. As the economy has worsened, so has the appeal of netbooks increased. Three major factors are primary reasons:
- Economic conditions worsened throughout 2008.
- Netbook screen sizes, storage capacity and processing power improved toward the end of 2008 (e.g., the portables now have more mass-market appeal).
- Wireless carriers offered subsidies that reduced purchase prices even further (see next subhead for a more detailed explanation of the importance).
Some analysts will say that netbooks appeal because of their small size. But that demand was always there, hence sales of subnotebooks. The difference: price. Subnotebooks had premium pricing. Slightly smaller mininotebooks sold as loss leaders.
Mininotebooks' Evolution
Netbooks are headed down two paths that likely will diverge over the next 12 months. Neither path warrants any major Office 14 tweaking. Path A leads to the category's disappearance. Some analysts believe the category made no appearance. "My belief system says that netbooks are notebooks and not a new business," Stephen Baker, NPD's vice president of industry analysis, recently told me.
I agree. I've written plenty about netbooks, certainly, because they've further opened up sales of lower-cost portables. It's price and not size that drives mininotebook sales. Apple doesn't compete there, and Microsoft loses margins in the subcategory. OEMs pay much less for every Windows XP Home license than "premium" Vista SKUs—or nothing if shipping Linux.
Many people pay even less than labeled selling prices. According to IDC, in the fourth quarter, about 80 percent of mininotebooks shipped to Western Europe, where they accounted for 20 percent of overall laptop volumes and 30 percent of consumer notebooks. IDC described the telco channel as "pivotal" because so many netbooks sold into the region are carrier subsidized.
Mininotebook sales are not as big as they might seem because:
- Netbooks are largely a European regional phenomenon.
- Carrier subsidies drop selling prices to near zero or a little more (e.g., $100).
- Subsidies lock buyers into data contracts that likely will delay the next computer purchase (e.g., contracts must expire).
So far, the U.S. market has largely resisted carrier subsidies. I don't expect to see huge increases in mininotebook volumes without them. Even the most generous analyst estimates put eventual netbook shipments at about 10 percent of all notebooks. As mininotebooks take on more mainstream features and Windows 7 ships (and is available on them), the category will largely disappear. Right now, netbooks are a negative for Intel and Microsoft—and even for some OEMs. As mininotebook shipments increase, OEM notebook margins go down.
That said, along the Path B, netbooks could flourish, but in doing so they would become something different. There, Microsoft should focus more on adapting Windows than Office.
Because of carrier subsidies, performance limitations and physical size, smaller netbooks are closer to smartphones than they are to notebooks. That is for Western Europe and some emerging markets. There are few carrier subsidies in the United States. I predict that along this second track there will be more of a convergence between smartphones and mininotebooks, starting with the telco business model.
Three problems lay ahead of Microsoft:
- Windows Mobile doesn't scale up enough from smartphones, and Windows 7 won't scale down far enough (at least in its current iteration). Windows Vista is useless for both product categories.
- Google's Android and Nokia's Symbian OS run well on smartphones and will scale up for netbooks. Open source appeals in Europe, where carrier subsidies are strongest for selling mininotebooks. Nokia is the world's largest handset and mobile OS leader, recently unofficially announcing plans to produce a netbook.
- Office doesn't natively run on Windows Mobile, Android or Symbian OS. Sure, there's an Office subset for Windows Mobile, but features are nothing like what people would use on a portable running Windows XP, Vista or 7.
From an Office 14 development perspective, Microsoft is OK along Path A, as future netbooks come to fit better into the broader notebook market. Path B is hugely problematic. Google and Nokia, perhaps even Apple and Research In Motion, are ready to drive deeper convergence between subsidized mobile phones and mininotebooks.
On Tuesday, Stephen Elop rightly identified part of the problem: "From an Office perspective, it is the case, one can generally assume, that if someone is spending just a few hundred dollars on a netbook, you know, how much do they want to spend on productivity software and so forth?"
But that's only part of the problem. Office being incapable of natively running on the devices is the other. The announced but unreleased Office Web is one way Microsoft can deal with both problems. Whether smartphones become more like netbooks or netbooks like smartphones, the appeal will expand from Western Europe to emerging markets, I predict. Already, mobile phones are the first Net-connected devices most people in emerging markets buy.
Microsoft should worry more about Windows than Office, given the likelihood competing operating systems will be pushed up from handsets into the Path B mininotebook market. Linux was the operating system of choice for early netbooks. If Google had released Android a year earlier, the operating system might have shipped on many netbooks, making Microsoft's mininotebooks problems much worse today.
[Please send your tips or rumors to watchtips at gmail.com.]
Related Posts:
- Grim Reaper Gartner Taunts Windows 7, Microsoft Watch, March 2, 2009
- The Windows Empire Strikes Back, Microsoft Watch, Feb. 19, 2009
- Netbook Sales Soar in Europe, Microsoft Watch, Feb. 17, 2009
- Netbook Sales Lift Windows XP Home Share, Microsoft Watch, Feb. 5, 2009
- Can Microsoft Blame Netbooks?, Microsoft Watch, Jan. 26, 2009
- Are Telco Subsidies Coming Back?, Microsoft Watch, Dec. 9, 2008
- Does Windows Have a Future on Netbooks?, Microsoft Watch, Dec. 7, 2008
- Origami: Flattened by Netbooks?, Microsoft Watch, Sept. 29, 2008
- XP Pro Execution Set, Home Gets Reprieve, Microsoft Watch, April 3, 2008
- Microsoft's Big Problem in a Small Box, Microsoft Watch, Dec. 7, 2007
Comments (41)
Didn't you get the news Joe? Microsoft Windows is on 90% of Netbooks sold. Thats saying something for a form form factor that started out with Linux and has dwindled to 10%, I guess those who are running Linux are just waiting on Windows 7 to end the torture. Office is not a problem for Netbooks considering the type of target audience. A person who owns a Netbook is using it for mostly 'Net' activities, this is where the next wave of Office experiences will play a critical role such as web based versions of Word, Excel, PowerPoint, OneNote and Windows Live. Microsoft owns this already, so I don't see the point Joe of drumming up some wild speculation that just does not make any sense. If Netbook users want a more full featured cost effective copy of Microsoft Office with more robust features, Microsoft has it, Office Home and Student and Office Basic editions which includes Word and Excel.
Consumers and business users will receive significant value and rich productivity experiences when they combine Microsoft Office and Windows 7. They are already making the right choice by at least choosing Windows XP with their purchases, when Windows 7 is finalized it will be an even more powerful opportunity to realize benefits waiting in the wings.
Posted by Andre Da Costa | March 5, 2009 4:43 PM
Joe says:
"Three problems lay ahead of Microsoft"
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Its much worse than just 3 Joe. Lets not forget the cheapest netbooks might just come with an ARM processor. Windows does not run on that, but Linux will. And you can bet that cheap will sell in a time of major recession when people do not have money.
All the talk about how Windows Seven (Vi$ta7rc2/DRM) is going run on netbooks, is a joke. M$ will have to keep selling XP home at a lost to shareholders on netbooks. It is doubtful that Seven will ever be sold on more than 10% of all netbooks in the next 2 years.
But lets give M$ the benefit of the doubt, and pretend that 7 will be on most Netbooks. Where's the value in Seven over XP Home? There is none.
Where is the sercurity improvements in Windows Seven? There is none, in fact, it could be a small step backwards:
Windows 7's UAC is a broken mess; mend it or end it
http://arstechnica.com/microsoft/news/2009/03/opinion-ms-should-kill-win7-uac.ars
"The new exploit, discovered and demonstrated here, depends on a third mechanism for elevation that was previously overlooked. The first mechanism for elevation is the traditional prompt—the user is notified that a particular program wants to elevate, and can permit or deny the request. The second is the auto-elevating executables described in my previous article, in which certain system executables automatically elevate without any notification. Chief among these is a program rundll32, which can load and run almost any DLL, and will do so fully elevated.
The decisions Microsoft has made not only make Windows 7's Admin Approval mode less secure than Vista's, they also undermine the entire purpose of the UAC system. Redmond maintains that UAC's foremost objective is to ensure programmers update their programs to behave properly when users have limited access rights. But the way that the Windows 7 UAC "improvements" have been made completely exempts Microsoft's developers from having to do that work themselves. With Windows 7, it's one rule for Redmond, another one for everyone else."
Posted by Chips B Malroy | March 5, 2009 4:49 PM
I think if MS takes a path B it will be good for everyone. People generally want a slimmer, faster Office (and Windows). If MS produces this then everyone benefits, even those running $5000 laptops. I think people are tired of Windows and Office being more bloated and slower with each version.
The danger here is that if the netbook trend accelerates in the opposite direction. Ie becoming less powerful and lower cost. It seems you can get a good Netbook running XP or Linux for around 300.00 now. Manufacturers are working hard to lower this. India claims they can do netbooks for $10.00. Suppose quite a few $100 netbooks appear on the market? Probably these won't run Intel processors (unless ARM). Probably these will have quite small harddrives (or SSDs). Probably these will run a mini-Linux with Firefox and not much else. Probably their batteries will last a long time. Probably they will fit in a purse. Probably they will be quite popular.
Posted by smist08 | March 5, 2009 4:53 PM
Netbooks with Windo$e face the same Malware problems as any Windo$e computers, and still M$ does nothing of value to users to fix the Malware problems.
Here is another fairly new Windows trojan to be concerned about:
The Tigger Trojan: Icky, Sticky Stuff
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/securityfix/2009/02/the_t-i-double-guh-r_trojan_ic.html
"When analysts at Sterling, Va., based security intelligence firm iDefense first spotted the trojan they call "Tigger.A" in November 2008, none of the 37 anti-virus products they tested it against recognized it. A month later, only one - AntiVir - detected it.
iDefense analyst Michael Ligh found that Tigger appears designed to target mainly customers or employees of stock and options trading firms. Among the unusually short list of institutions specifically targeted by Tigger are E-Trade, ING Direct ShareBuilder, Vanguard, Options XPress, TD Ameritrade and Scottrade."
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But you could use Linux and not have to worry about this Windows Malware problem.
www.distrowatch.com it will set you free and get the monkeyboy off your back and out of your wallet. Don't let the FUD of the M$ writers for FREELAPTOPS stop you.
Link found thanks to Boycott Novell, Thanks Roy and others.
Posted by Chips B Malroy | March 5, 2009 4:59 PM
Sorry Joe, but netbooks already are capable of running Vista, Aero interface and all. It's only the perception that they can't that is preventing Vista's adoption (and probably the price of the license)
The low-cost Win7 starter edition will be put on most Netbooks, which allows for a low-cost to the manufacturer and purchaser, and the user will pay MS directly for the upgrade to a full Win7 if they want it.
Posted by Noirsoft | March 5, 2009 5:02 PM
"Windows Vista is useless for both product categories."
Snark response: "that sentence is four words too long."
Reality: That sentence is four words too long. The reason we're all going for Netbooks is precisely that running a machine with an Atom Processor and a 160GB HD can be done for either (1) $300 (XP Home/Linux) or (2) $600 and up (Vista).
We already know (see The Dell Experiment) that the price difference the market puts on those two is around (XP + $150) <= Vista <= (XP+100).
Given that, a second equation that says XP = (Vista + $300) is not solvable simultaneously.
And that would be ignoring those $600 laptops bought last year because MSFT/Intel l/i/e/d/ a/b/o/u/t/ t/h/e/m/ were Incredibly Overoptimistic about the Memory Requirements for a working machine.
The future may not be "Netbooks" as such, but the future is rather price-sensitive in the consumer market and rather efficiency-eyeing in the business market. So unless Seven is going to cost less and do more, it's not going to be ready for Prime Time either, no matter how much Andre wishes it so.
Posted by Ken Houghton | March 5, 2009 5:37 PM
I see Andres back and with more of his great PR cut n paste. Talking of which did you know this accusation of cutting and pasting was being put to Andre as far back as 2007 on another forum (I wonder if this was the "day of the laptop"?") I would like it in this post but we can only have one link per post and I dont want to waste it.
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Firstly, what Andre isnt telling you is that Windows 7 on a netbook (unless you spend more money on it, negating the main selling point of a netbook, price) is that you will only be able to run 3 applications on it at the same time an intentionally hobbled version of Windows 7.
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Am I right or wrong Mr Da Costa?
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And now for todays link:
"Two Microsoft Security Setbacks and Two More Failures":
http://boycottnovell.com/2009/03/05/security-setbacks-failures/
Posted by Goblin | March 5, 2009 5:59 PM
More on Windows Malware
Koobface variant worms across social networking sites
Facebook reject 'martial law' app vetting idea
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/03/02/koobface_worm_returns/
"A new strain of the Koobface worm is spreading across social networking sites including Facebook, MySpace and Bebo.
The malware posts invitations to the friends of infected users inviting them to view a video. The linked website tries to trick prospective marks into believing they need an updated version of Adobe Flash Player plugin to view the clip. The software offered is, of course, loaded with Windows-specific Trojan code. This malware establishes a back-door on compromised Windows machines."
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Do you suppose Windows Malware problems is the reason that certain M$ shills who get FREELAPTOPS from M$, have not posted here much recently?
Posted by Chips B Malroy | March 5, 2009 6:25 PM
Good link Chips.
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While we are on the subject of free laptops and paid opinion. Ive just done a short piece on this little cracker of a Twitterer:
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http://twitter.com/Optionetics
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Their shameless promotion of MS stock (IMO) suggests to me they are getting a little more than a free laptop for these efforts.
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Check out some of the quotes, these are enough to put even Andre Da Costa to shame:
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“Stock Tips of the day. MSFT is releasing a new Xbox, Windows 7, cloud computing. Buy in now before the stock goes up! Way up!”
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“Microsoft Stores to Include Games, Xbox Goodies, and Software! Investors love this! A hot BUY op!”
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“Show your support for #Microsoft by buying MSFT stocks.”
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“Secret tech stock that you must own right now. MSFT (#Microsoft)”
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“I’m buying MSFT stocks right now. My analysts forecast it at $24.”
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“Buying more MSFT #Microsoft stocks now while it’s low. Remember: Buy low, sell high. Get rich!”
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“Just put in my order for MSFT stocks and getting ready to attend the Oscars Party tomorrow night.”
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“MSFT is the best tech stock to buy right now! Will be quadrupled when Windows 7 is released later this year.”
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It looks like Andre may have met his match.
Posted by Goblin | March 5, 2009 6:33 PM
Even More on Windows Malware
Hallmark e-card virus considered 'severe'
http://www.connectmidmissouri.com/news/news_story.aspx?id=268883
"Millions of online greeting cards are sent every year and now a new virus is targeting those who receive them.
Denney said the virus can be traced to Slovakia in Eastern Europe and its sole purpose is to steal your financial information, like your banking PIN number.
It's going to slowly infect core Windows files so that you don't only know that its there," said Denney. "But fixing it with any normal anti-virus is going to be nearly impossible."
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Windows, unsafe on any internet
Posted by Chips B Malroy | March 5, 2009 6:34 PM
Whatever path netbooks may follow, there is no room in them for a high-priced OS. Microsoft may be hoping to move buyers away from cut-priced Windows XP towards full-priced 7, but that’s not going to fly in the netbook market. I don’t think a company accustomed to the high gross margins that Microsoft enjoys has the staying power for a low-margin market.
And you can’t ignore netbooks, hoping they’ll go away; they’re the ONLY part of the PC market still showing any growth prospects.
Posted by Lawrence D'Oliveiro | March 5, 2009 6:42 PM
It goes further than many of these comments, the issue with the popularity of netbooks and other low cost laptops (I bundle them together as they hit the same market) is that they are machines that are good enough for the vast majority of users. This is the dirty secret of the computer industry - unless you are doing heavy duty video editing or serious heavy gaming then a low speed, low power processor paired with the form factor you want (small and light or desktop replacement) is absolutely all anyone needs - and I include all business use here in this. In addition, the other dirty secret is that Ubuntu/Linux/Windows XP/Office 2000/OpenOffice.org have all the functionality needed by 99% of users as well - and Apple are focused on including applications in their OS in a way that MS cannot. You can see the issue here - computing is a commodity where companies like HP or Dell, and Microsoft are searching for a market big enough to sustain their bloated companies. Apple is creaming it in because it is aiming for the cool kids and those who want premium - markets that MS/Dell/HP are not properly aiming at. Welcome to the £250/$350 all in PC.
Posted by Ian Nock | March 5, 2009 6:43 PM
I don't get it. The whole article is about how Netbooks will die, but the sensationalized headline and lead-in are about Office 14.
C'mon. Who cares if Netbooks die or something replaces them. Anything that inspires Microsoft to perform a little RAM and CPU liposuction on the morbidly obese tools that Windows and Office have become is a good thing.
Microsoft hasn't had a great deal of success selling Office 2007. If they can quantifiably tout "huge performance gains" as features of Office 14 and Windows 7, then Microsoft will be successful. With or without Netbooks.
Posted by WM | March 5, 2009 6:44 PM
Andre Da Costa :wrote
"Didn't you get the news Joe? Microsoft Windows is on 90% of Netbooks sold. Thats saying something for a form form factor that started out with Linux and has dwindled to 10%, I guess those who are running Linux are just waiting on Windows 7 to end the torture."
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Please recheck your figures.
http://www.itproportal.com/portal/news/article/2009/2/25/third-dell-inspiron-mini-9-netbooks-comes-ubuntu/
"Dell has been bucking the market trend by selling a higher than usual percentage of its popular Inspiron Mini 9 netbooks with the Ubuntu OS rather than Windows XP Home with 33 percent of Netbooks equipped with Linux."
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Wouldn't it be funny if MSFT gave out EEE PC laptops with Linux this time to the bloggers and the "faithful posters" this time around due to budget cuts.
Posted by Ralph | March 5, 2009 8:03 PM
Ian has hit the proverbial nail right on the head with his comment "the issue with the popularity of netbooks and other low cost laptops is that they are machines that are good enough for the vast majority of users. This is the dirty secret of the computer industry...."
Netbooks fit the classic description of a "disruptive technology", in particular the "low end disruption" category.
Read more here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_technology
Posted by alanh | March 5, 2009 9:25 PM
The big problem with Vista was partly the price, that's why XP Home came back from the dead in a special <10" screen version for only $30.
Windows Starter Edition is going to push people to the Linux version rather than upgrading. Again though the price will be the decider, nobody is going to pay $150 for a netbook and then pay another $99 for Windows just to surf the web and have more than 3 programs running at a time.
Even if they really love Windows, they will buy the Linux version and then get their friend to get a pirated copy of Vista/XP/7 and run that. That is even worse than only getting $30 per machine for Microsoft's revenue.
Posted by billybob | March 5, 2009 9:31 PM
"If Google had released Android a year earlier, the operating system might have shipped on many netbooks, making Microsoft's mininotebooks problems much worse today."
What would Android have provided on netbooks a year ago, or even today, that regular Linux doesn't?
Posted by Paul | March 5, 2009 9:54 PM
Paul Said:
What would Android have provided on netbooks a year ago, or even today, that regular Linux doesn't?
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Does that really matter? Google has instant name recognition. Linux? Most people don't know what the hell Linux is and don't care one way or the other.
Name recognition would trump the fact that android can't even come close to offering what Ubuntu or any other modern desktop distro could.
Posted by Ghostdizzle | March 5, 2009 10:09 PM
Have you seen this?
http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9595_22-275841.html
Microsoft is looking at getting telecoms companies to bundle Dimdows 7 with the subsidized netbooks that they sell or give away. How’s that for a plan to try to sell 7 at something closer to its full price on a netbook, while hiding the cost in a prepay plan to avoid scaring away the punters?
Note the last para: “Ballmer recently said that the Windows 7 Starter Edition aimed at netbooks would be made available "at the current Windows XP price point"”. So there’ll be no way to prop up their sagging bottom line, except to upsell to a more expensive version of 7.
Posted by Lawrence D'Oliveiro | March 5, 2009 10:16 PM
Well, at least Andre has moved on from Vista as well. He must have downloaded the latest talking points from Redmond.
Posted by AndresFreeLaptop | March 5, 2009 10:21 PM
Whay did I ready this today, the day my new ASUS Eee PC 1000HE arrived????
Posted by EdG | March 5, 2009 10:47 PM
@Andre Da Costa:
"I don't see the point Joe of drumming up some wild speculation that just does not make any sense."
I thought that was his job. He certainly excels at it.
Posted by fastoy | March 5, 2009 11:13 PM
@Ralph
Although your link referred to just one model from one manufacturer, I was curious about the discrepancy in figures. I did a quick query or two and found this article from yesterday:
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Windows on 90% of Netbooks, Linux on Just 10%
http://news.softpedia.com/news/Windows-on-90-of-Netbooks-Linux-on-Just-10-105971.shtml
"NPD [a market analysis company] revealed at the debut of March that Windows shipped on 90% of all netbooks while Linux was confined to the remaining 10%."
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Here’s another from Toshiba and Acer:
90% of the netbooks that are sold have Windows XP
http://gadgetsblog.org/2008/12/20/90-of-the-netbooks-that-are-sold-have-windows-xp/
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As for the market expectations for Netbooks themselves, my belief is that while they are certainly a disruptive derivative of the Notebook technology #as was mentioned above#, they are here to stay and flourish. Further, I believe that while their primary logical customer base will be college students looking to save a few bucks on a highly portable note taker and browser #with better ergonomics than an iPhone#, they also stand to make inroads in the home where consumers will begin to move away from the one behemoth “PC to Rule Them All” and into a model where Mom, Dad, Sister, Brother can each have their own small footprint, affordable device. I suspect if the current economic situation were not quite so dire, we would see this pattern developing faster, but time will bear it out.
Interestingly, there are two primary reasons attributable to the rapid loss of ground Linux experienced in this market, especially after having had a significant head start. The first is, of course, brand recognition and familiarity #again, as mentioned above but in relation to Google#. The second, however, is the retailers were experiencing a very high return rate on the Linux netbooks, and high return rates on such a slim margin product is anathema to any profit-seeking enterprise.
With regard to the debate / curiosity about what Office will possibly do to make it appealing from both a productivity and pricing perspective on such a low cost device, I think it’s obviously got to be better web integration. In this area, Microsoft has quite a ways to go yet, as they have actively bucked this trend in a flat state of denial. It will be interesting to see if they can get this right, and what “right” will mean to the Enterprise customers as well.
Posted by Meem | March 6, 2009 2:43 AM
The problem with netbooks (or Office 14, depending on your perspective) is the convergence of the small screen of the netbook and the ribbon interface of the new Office products. The ribbon interface was designed for a large monitor. Who would give up one third of their screen for an interface that has the right side of it chopped off?
Speaking of Andre, if Goblin is right about the cut and paste comments, at least we know Andre didn't write it from his iPhone.
Windows Mobile is not Windows. A completely new Word app had to be developed to 'seamlessly integrate' Word onto Windows Mobile. It's not a subset of Word, it's different code. The new browser for Windows Mobile? IE 6. Windows Mobile will not be coming to a netbook near you. Enter Windows 7.
The newer netbooks are using Intel's Atom family of processors, so the CPU shouldn't be a problem. Microsoft claims Windows 7 will run fine in 1 GB of memory, even though what I've read says it wants about 1.3 GB just to boot. Disk space is going to be a problem, particularly SSD. Microsoft claims that all versions will load the same code and the license you give it will determine what you actually see. And some applications currently included in Windows will have to be loaded separately by the customer. This has train wreck written all over it.
Perhaps a better title would be, "Can Microsoft Kill The Netbook?"
Posted by Dave Lindhout | March 6, 2009 6:42 AM
The problem is Microsoft is using patents against linux in a big way. We must stop them.
Red Hat gets linux lawsuit from a Microsoft proxy.
Tom Tom gets Microsoft lawsuit about fat32.
Who is next ?? What is the FSF going to do about it???
What is going to get done about this parasite Microsoft parasite company ????
Hey joe , what is fair hey you moron ?????
Posted by kitkat | March 6, 2009 8:14 AM
Joe is just a fucking stupid cunt that sucks shit out of Microsofts arse the cunt.
Fuck off you cunt joe cunty wilcox cunt stupid fucking cunt.
Get fucked joe you cunt.
Fuck off cunty joe the cunt.
Posted by kok | March 6, 2009 8:20 AM
Remember, netbooks don't have optical drives in them, so unless the whole Window 7 DVD image is stored on a netbook's hard drive, most people will be stuck with whichever version of Windows 7 the OEM decides to install. This same limitation also means that for Microsoft of sell Office to netbook users, the whole Office image would need to be pre-installed too. I just don't see this happening, especially on netbooks with SSDs.
Once people begin realize that Windows 7 Starter Edition is severely crippled, OEM's will be forced to either figure out a way to offer Home Basic (if some licensing loophole makes it possible), switch to Home Premium, or go with Linux (or Android).
Low price and high portability will keep netbook sales high. Who wants to lug around a 15" or 17" laptop just to check e-mail and surf the Internet? By the end of this year, netbook graphic chips will be able to handle HD video (720p), so sales will probably increase even more.
I can foresee a growing trend of families buying a netbook for each member of the family.
Netbooks and cloud based computing are a good match. Better than smart phones (IMHO).
As already mentioned, netbooks are a disruptive technology, and once again Microsoft was caught off guard. It's really becoming a habit with them isn't it?
Posted by DavidG | March 6, 2009 11:42 AM
Interesting read... until the last few comments.
I believe that the netbook/mininotebook/notebook issue will become moot, and they will just be different models of a "portable computer" with different features and price points.
However, there there is a need for something between a smart phone and a "portable computer". The need is based more on what the user wants to do, rather which OS (or application suite) the user wants to run.
The user may want to do WP or SS (rather than Word or Excel). Those can be provided by apps on the device or services over the Internet.
The key difference to note is:
The user wants the convenience of access to all his data and apps-- this does not mean he wants to take them everywhere with him.
To my mind, the ideal device will be a stepped-up smart phone rather than a dumbed-down portable. The OS will, largely, be invisible as on the iPhone or G1.
The most powerful OS is the one you never see...
Posted by Dick Applebaum | March 6, 2009 12:22 PM
remember the 50s when the beetle,bug and small small japanese sub compacts surfaced.
detroit laughed at them.
where are the behomoths now?
netbooks are the real deal!
Posted by neil | March 6, 2009 1:34 PM
@DavidG :
You said
"Remember, netbooks don't have optical drives in them, so unless the whole Window 7 DVD image is stored on a netbook's hard drive, most people will be stuck with whichever version of Windows 7 the OEM decides to install.
____________________________________
riggght david. there's no such thing as a USB dvdrom. oh god whatever shall we do?
Posted by cc.torment | March 6, 2009 1:51 PM
@neil:
I wouldn't have thought it possible, but here's a description of how to install Windows Vista from a USB. So my guess is that it will also be possible to install Windows 7. Disclaimer: I cannot personally confirm this, as I've never actually installed, or even touched, Vista or Windows 7:
www.techmixer.com/install-windows-vista-from-bootable-usb-flash-memory-drive/
Of course, how many people are going to actually do this? Probably not many more than would also be willing to try this:
www.teamteabag.com/2008/05/17/howto-easy-install-ubuntu-804-hardy-heron-or-most-other-distros-from-usb/
or even this:
unetbootin.sourceforge.net/
Posted by Philosopher | March 6, 2009 3:21 PM
or freaking get a 30$ external dvd reader and install from that?
Posted by CC.Torment | March 6, 2009 4:26 PM
Netbooks is as real as iPhone. Just hating MSFT won't bring end to netbooks. With the launch of Cloud based services like GOOG and Office Live, netbooks become more of a reality. Now with Azure being the OS in the cloud, why do you need a $1200 laptop. Just get on the net anyhow and you are good to go. If you have ever checked Live Mesh and Windows Live, you will realize. I don't carry my large old laptop anymore. My files are on skydrive (50GB) and my One Note files get automatically synced to multiple destinations with Live Mesh. This is what S + S strategy is. For Netbooks , you don't even need S + S, just SAAS and you are good to go. Advertising will drive the demise of technology industry. take it from me. MSFT knows it and good to know that they are concerned.
Posted by guest | March 6, 2009 4:29 PM
@cc.torment
I'm wasn't trying to imply that you couldn't upgrade Windows on a netbook computer. Buying a USB DVD-ROM is one way. I personnaly would probably rip it to an ISO file using my desktop computer, transfer it to my USB HD, and mount it as a virtual DVD-ROM.
With flash memory continuing to increase is size and drop in price, I would love to see OEM's forgo the DVD and offer it as a USB flash memory stick (for a small additional fee of course.
Posted by DavidG | March 6, 2009 4:40 PM
OT Question for you guys:
When I create a post with links to articles, I get the dialogue telling me my post requires blog owner approval. Is there a way I should be constructing my link references so that this step is unnecessary? I see a lot of links in responses above, are those all going through the moderator?
Thanks for the help.
Posted by Meem | March 6, 2009 4:54 PM
@Meem: I don't know. Joe won't answer me on this. My advice is to remove the http prefix and post it as text. In Firefox you can hilight it and drag to the new tab icon and it opens it like a champ.
Posted by Philosopher | March 6, 2009 6:54 PM
To Meem and Philosopher:
Philosopher, thanks for offering advice to Meem.
Meem, the posts with the offending links don't go to a holding queue. They go into spam, which is a black hole of junk comments. Because of your post asking for advice, I searched for and found one junked comment; it's posted now. Philosopher gives you good advice. Sorry `bout that. It's out of my control.
Joe
Posted by Joe | March 6, 2009 8:07 PM
Thanks for the response, Joe. I didn't think you controlled it, but now I know. It is odd, though, that many folks get their link-enabled URLs right through, while others of us end up in the black hole. It's not like I'm posting from AOL or anything! :-)
Well, thankfully there's Firefox:
www.mozilla.com/en-US/firefox/3.0.7/releasenotes/
The Windows version just updated itself and restarted with all windows and tabs intact. The Ubuntu version was automatically updated from the Ubuntu package repository.
------------ P.S.
By the way, Joe, somebody where you work ought to delete the following posts. They have no redeeming value whatsoever:
www.microsoft-watch.com/content/desktop_mobile/the_problem_with_netbooks.html#comment-497102
www.microsoft-watch.com/content/desktop_mobile/the_problem_with_netbooks.html#comment-497106
www.microsoft-watch.com/content/desktop_mobile/the_problem_with_netbooks.html#comment-497110
(And then you can delete the end of this post starting with P.S. if you wish. Thank you.)
Posted by Philosopher | March 6, 2009 11:46 PM
Thanks for the help!
Posted by Meem | March 7, 2009 2:24 AM
@Philosopher and Meem:
I've had the same problem getting links to post. Those comments never see the light of day. I know it's possible because I see others do it.
So, Joe, how do the others do it? Perhaps those that are gifted, could explain to hose less fortunately.
And, Joe, you really should get rid of the offensive comments. We don't need that here.
Posted by Dave Lindhout | March 7, 2009 6:50 AM
Yawn. Any sane person can see that companies, govt agencies and schools are racing to develop rich document creation and management systems that keep important data off of local storage.
The netbook (or the "notebook" as we'll be calling them in a couple of years) is the perfect connectivity platform for those applications.
I expect that Office will be a key part of that effort, but only as a network client. It's already happening with the tripartite productivity suite of Office, Exchange and Sharepoint. Office will get leaner, Sharepoint and Exchange will buff up.
Posted by RickRussellTX | June 23, 2009 10:54 PM