Will the delay in Microsoft's Windows Vista have a domino effect on other planned releases of Windows?

Partner sources close to the company said that Microsoft has sketched out plans for Windows "Fiji" (also referred to by some Microsoft watchers as Vista R2) – the version of Windows set to follow Vista -- as for Windows "Vienna," the successor to Fiji, partner sources close to the company said.

Microsoft has not shared broadly its working feature set for Fiji, according to partners contacted by Microsoft Watch. Nor have company executives talked about what's on tap for Vienna, the version of Windows formerly code-named "Blackcomb." And exactly when either Fiji or Vienna will hit is anyone's guess.

Since Microsoft announced at the end of March that Vista was running behind schedule and would not be ready to launch in time for the 2006 holiday season, Microsoft brass have gone mum about its future plans for its desktop and server Windows releases. When asked about the Windows rollout schedule, Microsoft officials decline to comment, insisting that all hands are working on fixing Vista bugs to get that product to manufacturing in the latter half of 2006.

Before Microsoft officials made the decision to delay Vista's launch until January 2007, Microsoft was shooting to roll out a new version of Windows desktop and Windows server every two years. Until recently, that made Fiji's target delivery date 2008 and Vienna's 2010. Longhorn Server, meanwhile, was (and still is, according to Microsoft's last official word on the subject) slated for release in 2007. Longhorn Server R2 was targeted for 2009 and Vienna Server for 2011.

Will pushing back Vista's release-to-manufacturing date by a few weeks or months play havoc with these already tentative schedules?

"I really don't see any evidence that the Windows team can work on two releases such as a client and a server release, or even a release and a service pack such as Vista and XP SP3 in parallel," said Michael Cherry, an analyst with Directions on Microsoft in Kirkland, Wash. "Yes some work can occur in parallel but for the most part, historical evidence is that Windows development is serialized, so that a delay in one product ripples into every other product.

"Although Microsoft claims it has made process improvements there is no evidence these changes have made substantial improvements, but rather, with increasing feature dependencies and complexities the improvements are letting them hold their own," Cherry continued.

"While some feature groups likely don't overlap or create dependencies, for example changes to Media Player, Movie Maker, and Media Center probably do not create dependencies between the client and server editions, other features, such as the core operating system (OS), networking and security likely do create dependencies between client and server. So based on previous history, it is reasonable so assume that any delay in Vista pushes the next server release out by an equal or greater delay," Cherry said.

But not everyone cottons to that theory. The Burton Group analyst Peter O'Kelly doesn't anticipate much of a domino effect from the Vista slip, he said.

"I don't see a significant cascading schedule disruption," O'Kelly said. "The Vista delay just wasn't that big, in the grand scheme of things."

O'Kelly added that he'd "be surprised if we don't see "Longhorn Server in 2007, and if it is ultimately delayed, I'd be surprised if the slip is caused by the Vista delay."

Fiji will be the first Windows client release developed and tested under the reign of Steven Sinofsky, the current head of Microsoft Office development, who is slated to become the senior vice president of engineering for Windows and Windows Live later this year. Sinofsky's appointment was announced on March 23, two days after Microsoft announced the postponement of the launch of Windows Vista from fall 2006 to January 2007.

Sinofsky's move to the Windows team comes at a time when Microsoft is reevaluating whether traditional betas or more frequent, less-thoroughly-tested Community Technology Preview (CTP) builds are the best way to push a product from design to delivery.

While Sinofsky has achieved a record of consistent, on-time deliveries for Office, one man alone can't whip Windows into shape, company watchers observed.

"The real key here isn't what method they use to get builds out, but whether they can discipline themselves to keep (Fiji) or Vienna to a reasonable number of feature changes that can be specified, developed and tested in a reasonable time," said Directions on Microsoft's Cherry. "I don't think it matters so much what we call public test releases, what matters is that, one, they create a reasonable amount of work, balancing compelling with achievable, and, two, they stick to that unit of work and manage feature creep."

Given the history and trend lines for Windows, it's not clear whether the company is heading toward more or less frequent releases.

"Many of the enterprise customers we talk with wouldn't want major updates more frequently than a two- to three-year cycle, even if Microsoft could deliver updates on a faster cycle," said Burton Group's O'Kelly.

Cherry added that he's not sure Microsoft could deliver more frequent, predictable releases, all current factors remaining stable.

"Although Microsoft has stated that customers want predictable releases, they have made no effort to make the availability of service packs predictable," Cherry noted. "Service packs, which are typically loaded with features are totally random events that IT cannot plan for. Because they contain hot fixes and security updates, customers have to roll them out. So I don't anticipate a quick update to Vista."