Dear Joe,

Your argument does not hold water :

1) If you do not have any figure of Asus, you can not comment on their Linux or XP penetration although ASus is number two in netbooks market share.

2) Your last statement :"
In another couple quarters, after Windows 7 ships, I wouldn't be surprised to see nearly 100-percent of netbooks ship with Windows. But not yet. " show us that you really hate Microsoft.

With all the dislike rushing your head, do we think that your comment is impartial ?

After Windows 7 ships, those Windows-equipped netbooks are going to get Starter Edition, with its wonderful 3-application limit. You really think that will drive _up_ Windows adoption? I think it’s going to drive it _down_.

@Lawrence D'Oliveiro :

Actually users will have a choice. They don't have to go with starter edition.

But hey let's not let a little thing like reality get in the way right?

@CC.Torment
Yes they do have to go with starter edition until they pay more for a better version. will they have to pay retail or will retail stores stock OEM editions legally for its customers to upgrade to like they currently do with office.

No actually they can pay to unlock more features in Starter....

But hey once again let's not let a little thing like reality get in the way.

Not that I give a damn. If I buy a Windows loaded Netbook it'll be premium.

In either case no one is "Forcing" starter down peoples throats. They can get a more full featured variant, XP, or Linux. Stop acting like Microsoft is going to show up at your fucking doorstop with a Starter loaded netbook and some big bastard named bruno who's going to knee cap you with a spiked bat if you don't buy it.

@Carol

Point 2 - In another couple quarters, after Windows 7 ships, I wouldn't be surprised to see nearly 100-percent of netbooks ship with Windows.But not yet. " show us that you really hate Microsoft.

I don't follow how mentioning that Windows 7 may be pre-installed on all netbooks is anti-MS. Or is there a typo in your post?

Starter edition looks like it is more unpopular with the OEMs rather than the users. It makes their hardware look like it cannot handle Aero and multiple applications, plus it limits the resolution to make their screens look bad.

They can always go with Home Premium but that will add $50 to the cost of their <$300 laptop.

Ironically, HP is looking at Linux to make their laptops cheaper and to be more flexible to show off their hardware.

http://www.vnunet.com/vnunet/news/2239603/hp-eyeing-android-pcs

What about the people who buy an XP machine but then install Linux on it anyway? That's what I did. I prefer the simplicity and stability of Linux on my EEE, but I also liked having XP as an option just in case. So while I technically purchased an XP model, it doesn't mean I use it.
The main problem that I see with sales of Linux on netbooks is that they are duped in the store and don't know what they're buying. I was in Target recently where they sell the eeePC. It clearly states on the information card that it comese with a Linux operating system, but the sticker they have over the unit's display shows a Windows XP desktop. So unless you look carefully at the information card, you would have thought it came with XP. The salesman was no help either, explaining to a middle-aged woman that it "comes with a different type of browser... like Internet Explorer but not. It's a Linux type of browser." Well that's not very helpful, and I just had to bite my tongue while he went off talking nonsense.
Macs had the same problem before the Apple Stores opened. The salespeople tried to sell Macs, but didn't know anything about them. So when people discovered that they couldn't run their software on them, they got pissed. It's the same thing, just a different time.

JoeW, when you talk about Apple's market share you do the exact same thing. You quote NPD's numbers, and ignore the fact that they are USA-only. (They also don't include sales made on hp.com or dell.com.)

Dear Joe

let me just give you some backup for your arguements.

ASUS

they own about 60% of the market in europe and i know that around 20% of their systems are getting shipped with Linux.

RMAs for Linux Netbooks

Andy Tung from MSI started one of the biggest spins in IT history with his opinion during an interview with Laptopmag.com. This is total bullshit. The only system from MSI that got shipped with Linux was the MSI Wind U90 that came with a horrible Suse Enterprise Desktop. MSI sold maybe 5 to 10k of these systems.

The ASUS CEO also confirmed in a Laptopmag interview, that they have the same return rates with Linux as with Windows.

Think global guys and don't let these marketing guys fool you. MSIs' marketshare is around 8% for the global market and they are just not in the position to make any statements about this.

I think it is way more interesting to see, how MS got this marketshare. Many of the taiwanese manufacturers are telling me, that MS even paid them to install XP Home on their netbooks

I think the bad news for MS is that whatever the market penetration, the amount of money they get for each netbook sold is much less than for a traditional desktop or notebook. As both the personal and business markets switch to netbooks, MS's revenues are going to be hit hard.
Whether Linux is being adopted or not, at least competition from Linux is greatly helping consumers, by making available far more affordable computers.
Unfortuneately most of the Linux users I know have paid the MS tax. Bought a Windows PC and reformatted the harddrive when installing Linux. Hopefully this will change, but I think it contributes quite a bit to the high numbers quoted.

Net Applications puts Linux's market share at 00.90%, so desktop Linux isn't exactly taking the world by storm. (grin)

I, like many others paid the MS tax. It is very simple. The OEMs make more money by selling netbooks with Windows. Here is how, Ms sells the OS on a heavy discount, anywhere between $3-$30 per copy. They do this so that they don't get locked out of the netbook market. After all that is why they extended the XP lifecycle. Then the OEM loads all the trial software on the netbook. They get as much as $50 per netbook. This I got from Dell when they were asked about how much would be a good price for a system without any pre-loaded trial ware. Linux does not come with pre loaded crap. So the OEMs actually make less on a Linux system. They try to get around this by reducing hardware cost, smaller hard drive, less system memory, less screen space, etc.... It's all about money.

I, like many others paid the MS tax. It is very simple. The OEMs make more money by selling netbooks with Windows. Here is how, Ms sells the OS on a heavy discount, anywhere between $3-$30 per copy. They do this so that they don't get locked out of the netbook market. After all that is why they extended the XP lifecycle. Then the OEM loads all the trial software on the netbook. They get as much as $50 per netbook. This I got from Dell when they were asked about how much would be a good price for a system without any pre-loaded trial ware. Linux does not come with pre loaded crap. So the OEMs actually make less on a Linux system. They try to get around this by reducing hardware cost, smaller hard drive, less system memory, less screen space, etc.... It's all about money.

I, like many others paid the MS tax. It is very simple. The OEMs make more money by selling netbooks with Windows. Here is how, Ms sells the OS on a heavy discount, anywhere between $3-$30 per copy. They do this so that they don't get locked out of the netbook market. After all that is why they extended the XP lifecycle. Then the OEM loads all the trial software on the netbook. They get as much as $50 per netbook. This I got from Dell when they were asked about how much would be a good price for a system without any pre-loaded trial ware. Linux does not come with pre loaded crap. So the OEMs actually make less on a Linux system. They try to get around this by reducing hardware cost, smaller hard drive, less system memory, less screen space, etc.... It's all about money.

Sorry about the repeated posts. I kept getting server error and timeouts.

So if the OEM can actually bring a netbook (or any other PC for that matter) to market for less with Windows and crapware, then that is a benefit to Linux users. You get the better netbook with Windows & crapware for less, then reformat and install Linux. Voila! So, actually we Linux users can thank Microsoft for this situation. But does it show in the numbers?

The Guardian has published figures on worldwide netbook production and it is running at 60% XP and 40% Linux. Now 40% for Linux is a big jump. Impressed.

Given the Microsoft anti Mac adverts and this campaign to minimise Linux, Microsoft is obviously very, very afraid.

"Now 40% for Linux is a big jump. Impressed."

A jump from what? Linux had a significant head start in the Netbook market, so don't you mean a drop?

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"Given the Microsoft anti Mac adverts and this campaign to minimise Linux, Microsoft is obviously very, very afraid."

You can interchange any of the proper nouns in your statement and it would still be true (if a bit hyperbolic). e.g., Apple releases anti-PC and Vista ads, Linux has been on an 18 year mission to minimize MS in the market place. You call it "afraid", but it's nothing that dramatic; it's just the application of traditional market share tactics on the part of all parties.

One good thing about MSFT, all have to admit, is looking at the market opportunity and re-aligning themselves with the market demand. Doesn't matter if profit hurts, but volumes will increase in the long run (especially internationally) and those losses will be recovered. Do you see AAPL doing this? Why can't they come with a netbook? AAPL is a rip-off.
With GOOG Android getting into the play, its becoming more interesting and beneficial for MSFT. Look back 10 years, you will see the rise of JAVA, CORBA, EJB, CRAP,... by companies to counter MSFT platform. The reality was that the players supporting the standards competed with each other and killed one another, except IBM. I see the same dynamics shaping up with Android and HP adopting Linux. The more non-MSFT netbooks arrive in the market, the more confusion it creates because the only known brand then becomes Windows. If GOOG wants to compete, they need to team up with an existing player like Red Hat or SuSe, otherwise its too much to swallow for the consumers.

Norway: at my place of work we have sold 60..70 Acer One where about half are sold with Linux.
Only one of the Linux models has come back.
A few of my friends have the 110L version and like it. My own 110L is running Ubuntu 9.04 for the moment.

Norway: at my place of work we have sold 60..70 Acer One where about half are sold with Linux.
Only one of the Linux models has come back.
A few of my friends have the 110L version and like it. My own 110L is running Ubuntu 9.04 for the moment.

Norway: at my place of work we have sold 60..70 Acer One where about half were sold with Linux.
Only one of the Linux models has come back.
A few of my friends have the 110L version and like it. My own 110L is running Ubuntu 9.04 for the moment.

"Doesn't matter if profit hurts, but volumes will increase in the long run (especially internationally) and those losses will be recovered."

Wasn't this the plan for allowing pirating of their software? They know that most of the BRIC countries are running >90% pirated software. When push came to shove, those countries are not prepared to pay and would rather set up their own distros that they can rely on. Just search for Linux use in those countries, they are much much higher than in the US.

By using Linux, Google are already teaming up with Red Hat and Novell, and every other company that contributes to the codebase. IBM, Apple, Nokia, Sun, virtually everyone except Microsoft.

Quote CC.Torment"actually they can pay to unlock more features in Starter...."
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I think highlights the point excellently. Notice the keywords "pay" and "unlock"? What Windows features will a user require when purchasing a Netbook or indeed any system with Windows 7 on it? I cant answer that, but what I can say is that the more features you want the more you have to pay.
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Why is it that everyone with a pro-MS opinion seems to think that Linux users want everyone using Linux? I personally cant think of anything worse. If people want to make the move, great, if they dont, Im happy to know that they are aware they have a choice, which like it or not forces any company to improve their products and provide better value for money for the end user (in the spirit of competition)
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I think that no matter what OS you use, users could care less about their OS of choice popularity if it is suitable for them. For me, the argument is about highlighting options to users, not winning some silly ratings war. Linux has been around when its popularity was far less than it is today and aslong as there is a dedicated community contributing to it with the ethos of providing free and functional software to everyone then Linux will be around when Windows is but a distant memory.
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I think Billybob hit on a good point, piracy cannot be relied upon as a source of future revenue, since pirates have no intention of paying for software in the first place. I wonder how many of the "millions of Windows users" that some like to quote are using pirated software where Microsoft is making no money at all.
Its all well and good having a package that alot of people use, but if youre not getting the revenue from it, its a little bit of a shallow victory is it not?
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Another point Id like to bring up was "guest" when they said "is looking at the market opportunity and re-aligning themselves with the market demand"
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Id ask, so what happened with their 360? What about the Zune? What about Google? I could go on, I wont. I believe the main problem with Microsoft is that they CANT see market opportunity, and are constantly playing catchup, relying on their brand name to keep them in the fore, and if they are re-aligning themselves with market demand, why is it then that they are seeming to completely ignore the overwhelming demand by their existing customers to have one version of Windows 7 for all? (IMO) I dont see market demand for the hobbled Win7 starter, what I see is a crippled package being released with the soul purpose to force further purchase. Or am I wrong?
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People like CC.torment that (IMO) promote MS opinion should welcome MAC and Linux alternatives (if indeed these posters are impartial) Competition in any form makes for better products/deals for the end user. Would anyone want Microsoft to be the soul provider of software solutions on the PC? Does anyone think Microsoft "owning completely" the PC scene would be a good thing? and most importantly does anything think that Microsoft could be trusted to act fairly and in the interests of its customers if it did? - Ill leave you all to ponder that one.

One of the main advantages of Linux in the first generation of netbooks was price.

A $100 difference in a $300 product was enough to make people buy Linux instead of Windows.

And Linux won the first netbook battle.

Then, Microsoft cut the price of XP to $25, and manufacturers started to adopt it. For a $25-$50 difference, people don't bother to learn something new.

And Microsoft won the second netbook battle.

Now we're about to see the third netbook battle.

Linux/ARM netbooks will not only be cheaper than Wintel, but will also offer a huge differentiation factor: longer battery life -- 15 hours or more.

This will be a decisive battle in the netbook war.

One of the main advantages of Linux in the first generation of netbooks was price.

A $100 difference in a $300 product was enough to make people buy Linux instead of Windows.

And Linux won the first netbook battle.

Then, Microsoft cut the price of XP to $25, and manufacturers started to adopt it. For a $25-$50 difference, people don't bother to learn something new.

And Microsoft won the second netbook battle.

Now we're about to see the third netbook battle.

Linux/ARM netbooks will not only be cheaper than Wintel, but will also offer a huge differentiation factor: longer battery life -- 15 hours or more.

This will be a decisive battle in the netbook war.

One of the main advantages of Linux in the first generation of netbooks was price.

A $100 difference in a $300 product was enough to make people buy Linux instead of Windows.

And Linux won the first netbook battle.

Then, Microsoft cut the price of XP to $25, and manufacturers started to adopt it. For a $25-$50 difference, people don't bother to learn something new.

And Microsoft won the second netbook battle.

Now we're about to see the third netbook battle.

Linux/ARM netbooks will not only be cheaper than Wintel, but will also offer a huge differentiation factor: longer battery life -- 15 hours or more.

This will be a decisive battle in the netbook war.

One of the main advantages of Linux in the first generation of netbooks was price.

A $100 difference in a $300 product was enough to make people buy Linux instead of Windows.

And Linux won the first netbook battle.

Then, Microsoft cut the price of XP to $25, and manufacturers started to adopt it. For a $25-$50 difference, people don't bother to learn something new.

And Microsoft won the second netbook battle.

Now we're about to see the third netbook battle.

Linux/ARM netbooks will not only be cheaper than Wintel, but will also offer a huge differentiation factor: longer battery life -- 15 hours or more.

This will be a decisive battle in the netbook war.

One of the main advantages of Linux in the first generation of netbooks was price.

A $100 difference in a $300 product was enough to make people buy Linux instead of Windows.

And Linux won the first netbook battle.

Then, Microsoft cut the price of XP to $25, and manufacturers started to adopt it. For a $25-$50 difference, people don't bother to learn something new.

And Microsoft won the second netbook battle.

Now we're about to see the third netbook battle.

Linux/ARM netbooks will not only be cheaper than Wintel, but will also offer a huge differentiation factor: longer battery life -- 15 hours or more.

This will be a decisive battle in the netbook war.

Quote "A $100 difference in a $300 product was enough to make people buy Linux instead of Windows."
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Id firstly ask Joe to maybe help out a little and delete the duplicate posts (an obvious fault somewhere down the line) As much as I should be supporting that statement, I have to disagree. Whilst price was something that made a difference, there were examples of people buying Linux Netbooks by mistake and I certainly dont think this (if it was a war) was won by Linux Netbooks. People are willing to pay money for a product that is functional and they are happy with, hence why XP is popular on Netbooks and Vista isnt (IMO)
And thats no big deal. Does it matter how many Linux Netbooks or Windows netbooks are sold? I personally couldnt care. If Microsoft want to claim a netbook victory, fine, let them. I know what I like and use.
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Quote "Linux/ARM netbooks will not only be cheaper than Wintel, but will also offer a huge differentiation factor: longer battery life -- 15 hours or more."
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I think this is an overated issue. Since I have no ties to any IT company named here, I can say that battery life is a secondary consideration to the point you made in the second paragraph.
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If Linux wants to win over new users (IMO) it simply has to do so by example. Any user who has experience of a Vista netbook and then tries a Linux one would easily see the difference. I think the Linux platform as a whole is so good because (unlike some) it relies on its own functionality as its advert, not some PR marketing campaign with annoying children, celebrities or a "bargain hunter" who completely forgets that the cheapest alternative would be FOSS.
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IMO if Microsoft coded an OS as good as it could advertise one, then Linux (or indeed any other alternative) wouldnt stand a chance. As it stands alternatives are advertising themselves in the functionality they offer, not some shallow benefits or marketing campaign.
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Quote "This will be a decisive battle in the netbook war."
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I dont think theres any war going on here. Why would FOSS be at war at all? Linux has infinite resources and no shareholders, Linux can stand a recession and does not have to worry about keeping pressure on alternatives. Linux (IMO) will be around long after Windows is but a distant memory (regardless of your opinion on it)

15 hour battery life would be nice. I could see it now...the netbook weighs two pounds and the battery 25 pounds...lol
______________________________________

@ Goblin

Correct there is no "war". The "war" is already lost before it ever started. While MSFT might have won some battles and may still win a few more. I believe it is already a lost cause for MSFT....why?

Guess what? Still yet another country is going open source (well 50%) and this time it is Hungary.

http://www.h-online.com/open/Hungarian-government-goes-50-per-cent-open-source--/news/113003

If this keeps up at this pace, proprietary software (and the companies that make this type of software) as we know it will be delegated to the annuals of history joining classics as the Model T and the 8 track tape player.

Ralph arm processors are known for there power effectiveness. Really known for it.

Normal laptop battery that will give a x86 processor setup 4 hours. Will give a Arm processor 24 hours no problems. Most of the power usage is the screen and drive not the cheep set. Turning screen and drive off arm running full stack would be still going over 100 hours latter of a standard laptop battery. Scary enough a laptop with 100 hours is possible with arm if we go back to black and white screens.

I have known Joe Wilcox personally for quite a number of years. I can't believe he is a Micrsoft hater. Look I'm a Windows Server Admin in the government sector. If Unix or anything else came along that cost less then Windows I'd be replaceing all my Windows boxes. Don't give me the free Unix argument. You have to pay dearly for any Unix support contract even if the OS is free. Overall the cost of ownership for a Windowsd box is relatively less that any other Server OS. I have had Unix "guru's" bad mouth Windows for not being able to run for a year with out being rebooted. All they have admitted to is that they are not patching their Unix boxes.
In tests in my environment I have not seen a faster booting OS as Windows Server 2008. I am open to using whatever tool does the job with the least amount of cost. I run a server farm of all Windows 2003 servers in the 3 years that I have been managing this farm I have had zero problems due to the OS its been all hardware.

Here in London Carphonewarehouse certainly still sells Linux PCs (Elonex machines with Ubuntu). At least my local store does.

Still time for 2 upgrades to Ubuntu before Windows 7 ships.

What is not being talked about very much is how MS is dropping the cost of Office 2007 left and right. That is how the franchise will be defended.

I paid UKP38 for Office Pro 2007 and I have overheard low-ball offers in high street stores. Although I prefer the user interface I'm afraid that Office 2003 is going to be the limit for document interchangeability. The added value going beyond it is minimal.

In the UK the choice between Linux and XP on netbooks is probably influenced as much by services available in the UK, as other factors.

The terrestrial TV companies in the UK offer catch-up services and live streaming that are available from XP but not Linux. They depend on Microsoft DRM (and one uses Silverlight with DRM). This is a desirable utility for all ages.

The latest Flash plug-ins are required for services such as YouTube, and there are Linux netbooks on sale in the UK that cannot install the latest Flash because Adobe doesn't supply it for the particular processor. But it is not just YouTube that needs Flash, the majority of web shopping sites with the greatest 'footfall' require the use of Flash, and are otherwise unusable.

Given that netbook owners generally will have either laptop or desktop access, with suitable keyboards and drive capacity for heavy duty typing and applications - a netbook that cannot easily access the desired services is not much use to most people.

I bought a limited Linux netbook (I'm a UNIX veteran), that worked well enough for email and web access - but it's no longer used, I had to buy an XP netbook to do the things I want to do, such as those above, with a netbook.

Similar considerations apply to choice of XP rather than Linux in other European countries, I believe that it is greatly influenced by the Internet services available. This is clearly not always the case with journalist reviewers who might be more concerned about the netbook keyboard and applications that they use, that are probably significantly different from the uses of the consumers.

In the UK the choice between Linux and XP on netbooks is probably influenced as much by services available in the UK, as other factors.

The terrestrial TV companies in the UK offer catch-up services and live streaming that are available from XP but not Linux. They depend on Microsoft DRM (and one uses Silverlight with DRM). This is a desirable utility for all ages.

The latest Flash plug-ins are required for services such as YouTube, and there are Linux netbooks on sale in the UK that cannot install the latest Flash because Adobe doesn't supply it for the particular processor. But it is not just YouTube that needs Flash, the majority of web shopping sites with the greatest 'footfall' require the use of Flash, and are otherwise unusable.

Given that netbook owners generally will have either laptop or desktop access, with suitable keyboards and drive capacity for heavy duty typing and applications - a netbook that cannot easily access the desired services is not much use to most people.

I bought a limited Linux netbook (I'm a UNIX veteran), that worked well enough for email and web access - but it's no longer used, I had to buy an XP netbook to do the things I want to do, such as those above, with a netbook.

Similar considerations apply to choice of XP rather than Linux in other European countries, I believe that it is greatly influenced by the Internet services available. This is clearly not always the case with journalist reviewers who might be more concerned about the netbook keyboard and applications that they use, that are probably significantly different from the uses of the consumers.

In the UK the choice between Linux and XP on netbooks is probably influenced as much by services available in the UK, as other factors.

The terrestrial TV companies in the UK offer catch-up services and live streaming that are available from XP but not Linux. They depend on Microsoft DRM (and one uses Silverlight with DRM). This is a desirable utility for all ages.

The latest Flash plug-ins are required for services such as YouTube, and there are Linux netbooks on sale in the UK that cannot install the latest Flash because Adobe doesn't supply it for the particular processor. But it is not just YouTube that needs Flash, the majority of web shopping sites with the greatest 'footfall' require the use of Flash, and are otherwise unusable.

Given that netbook owners generally will have either laptop or desktop access, with suitable keyboards and drive capacity for heavy duty typing and applications - a netbook that cannot easily access the desired services is not much use to most people.

I bought a limited Linux netbook (I'm a UNIX veteran), that worked well enough for email and web access - but it's no longer used, I had to buy an XP netbook to do the things I want to do, such as those above, with a netbook.

Similar considerations apply to choice of XP rather than Linux in other European countries, I believe that it is greatly influenced by the Internet services available. This is clearly not always the case with journalist reviewers who might be more concerned about the netbook keyboard and applications that they use, that are probably significantly different from the uses of the consumers.

I think grumpyoldman hit the nail on the head there. I have to use both to get the most out of my computing experience (I'm also a wintel engineer). The xp machine is used for internet and general gaming; my linux box for everything else. Once the web (and gaming community) becomes 100% compatible with Linux then I'll use this as my only o/s. Until that time, I'm stuck with both....

Bought Microsoft, just like so many sheeple. Hit hard times, went to Ubuntu, never had better computing. Please donate your old boxes to a church-group or some needy student in these hard times! To comply with the law, and with Microsoft's leasing policy, you can now replace Microsoft OS with the free (download from the net) Ubuntu OS, which can be set to erase the hard drive of all traces of the “illegal to give away ” Microsoft system and your private information, before donation! Now, explain to your lucky recipient that all the manuals they will ever need are available for free on the internet! Just ask for them in Google! OpenOffice, which is installed already is plenty adequate for homework assignments and with a little exploring, everything else can work well too! Happy computing!

"I have had Unix "guru's" bad mouth Windows for not being able to run for a year with out being rebooted. All they have admitted to is that they are not patching their Unix boxes."

I have never used unix but I know in linux that patching or updating in most cases does not require a reboot at all. The only instance that requires a restart is a kernel upgrade and I have even heard of people getting around that.

I have also never had a problem using internet apps on my ubuntu netbook. Flash is the latest version (I have used both lpia and x86 versions) and until the ion comes out you are not going to be doing much 3d gaming on an atom processor. The only regrettable problem I have seen on the internet so far are sites that insist on using Silverlight only which MS will never port to linux (except for Novell whom they will probably own eventually). I watch both youtube and hulu on my linux netbook and they load fine.

All in all I was quite happy to cut $50 on the purchase of my dell mini by not getting windows. It let me get double the size ssd for the same price.

linux on 100% of intel netbooks...no seriously this argument is void. Check the intel press release @
http://www.intel.com/pressroom/archive/releases/20090507corp.htm