Windows Phone 7: DOA?
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Microsoft didn't bother to send me one of the Windows Phone 7 prototypes they've been circulating to media over the past week--which is OK, because I had my hands full reviewing the Samsung Galaxy S--but I'm hoping they'll see the light over the next couple of days, if only so I can jump into the review fray. A lot of those reviews seem very polite. There's some praise for the Windows Phone 7 operating system, which attempts to aggregate Web content and applications into subject-specific Hubs, as opposed to arranging individual apps on a grid-like home screen. And then there's Galen Gruman, who basically went nuclear. "Microsoft needs to kill Windows Phone 7 and avoid further embarrassing itself by shipping this throwback," Gruman wrote in a July 15 posting on InfoWorld's Mobile Edge blog. "It's not a question of whether Windows Phone 7 will fail--it will--but how long it will take Microsoft to admit the failure. For the company's sake, the earlier it fesses up, the better." According to Gruman, Windows Phone 7's sins include an "awkward and unsophisticated" UI that "recalls Microsoft's history of clunky design" and use of "inexcusably old technology" such as Internet Explorer 7. Microsoft, he says, has come up with "an imperfect copy of an old iPhone." Gruman predicts that Windows Phone 7 devices will find their way to the carriers' remainder bins by "in January 2011." I'm not so sure that's the case here. I haven't had the chance to dropkick a Windows Phone 7 device of my very own (you truly never know how well a smartphone can suit your needs until you test whether it can survive a stray boot), but I have seen it in action, in a very limited way. Based off that limited interaction, the user interface seemed intuitive, and certainly nothing like the iPhone circa 2007. The bigger question--and this will affect its rate of consumer adoption--is how versatile the UI proves in handling people's lives and apps. If it's a snap to add new apps, or update information for a particular Hub, then Windows Phone 7 could prove sticky in the marketplace. If it's a pain, then users will shy away. If anything's going to kill Windows Phone 7, it's the Windows Phone Marketplace. I've said this before: if third-party developers don't get onboard with their apps and games, then this platform will die--but that death will be gradual, certainly not the "$25 bin by President's Day" demise predicted by Gruman. At this point, the developer front seems a toss-up. On one hand, Microsoft is pushing very hard (and even offering cash, rumor has it) for developers to port their wares on Windows Phone 7. On the other, I've been hearing a lot of angry rumblings from Windows Mobile developers--who could be the natural core group for Phone 7 development--grumbling about how Microsoft's attempt at a smartphone "reset" has left them with a.) no easy upgrade path for their existing apps to the new platform, and b.) needing to adapt to the all-new requirements of building for Phone 7. And at least one of those developers is a pretty major-sized entity. So we shall see. If Microsoft mismanages the launch--I've listed some of the things they need to do to succeed, here--then they're in very big trouble. But I think they could have the platform to make it work, or at least halt their slide in smartphone market share. What do you all think? |
Comments (16)
After that slam I can't imagine that Microsoft would give you a review unit.
Posted by fastoy | July 21, 2010 5:44 PM
Gruman's article was factually incorrect and clearly showed he didn't get the point of the new UI- I wouldn't go around quoting it.
Posted by Jason Fortun | July 21, 2010 5:48 PM
You're not speaking to the right devs, then. Over a thousand of them were eager enough to drop 3-6 hours yesterday (and tomorrow) on WinPhone7 Live meetings.
Galen is meaningless.
Posted by Dave | July 21, 2010 6:04 PM
devs who are doing 6.5 will be unhappy, because windows phone 7 is just not version change, but the platform(if doing silverlight) is different. there is no upgrade path to any development they did.
Posted by lee | July 21, 2010 6:11 PM
Windows Phone 7 will fail. It is not better than Android or iPhone. It is already dead in the slate market. WP7 has a long list of missing features. An OK OS isn't good enough. It needs to be better than the competition.
Posted by Sandra K | July 21, 2010 6:26 PM
I'll skip over anything said about Galen Gruman's comments, as they've been shot down as lies, lies and outright lies by anyone with even an idea of fact and truth about how WP7 works.
So, back in reality...
In just 2 months, there have been over 200,000 specific downloads of the IDE for WP7.
There are over 3 million developers already writing Silverlight / .NET and/or XNA code...
Remember, that code is 99% compatible with WP7 - the dev's only need to allow for enforced screen resolution and touch control.
A quick search on YouTube shows *currently used* web-based Silverlight code running "almost untouched" on WP7 phones. I say 'almost untouched' because they've just added touch screen control - something that only took a hour or so to do.
I, for one, definitely do not doubt there will be any 'drought' of WP7 app or hub-extension developers!
Posted by GTRoberts | July 21, 2010 7:20 PM
Please do everyone a favor and note that Gruman hasn't had his hands on a Win7 phone and based his "preview" on watching some other people use the phone.
Posted by Jason | July 21, 2010 9:44 PM
"Galen is meaningless."
Most intelligent post here. :)
His comment about "why isn't it using IE9" when IE9 doesn't exist in any usable form shows how much his opinion can be trusted on anything. :(
I'm excited about the possibilities as a developer and am already working on several projects for WP7.
Posted by Jim Perry | July 22, 2010 10:33 AM
I agree with GTRoberts. Any developer who has been working with Windows Presentation Foundation and .NET already knows how to program for WP7. I'm one of those developers. If I chose, I could write a WP7 app today.
Developers who complain about having to transition to a new technology every once in a while are in the wrong field and deserve to be out of a job. You can't be a developer and not be willing to rebuild your skill set every five or ten years. So I have no pity for the outfits who are complaining about the lack of compatibility with their legacy code. In the end, Silverlight is a superior development technology to what they've been using for previous versions of Windows Phone and will only improve their productivity, creativity, and innovation.
Adapt or die. That's how it is in the technology industry.
As for whether Microsoft can actually execute a great new innovation with WP7? I'd say even money, and I don't take even money bets.
Posted by Mike | July 22, 2010 11:26 AM
I think the big weakness is the browser. I think this is much more important than the app stores. IE 7 just doesn't work well on the lesser hardware of a phone, and IE 9 is just too far away. Without a good HTML5 browser like Safari or Chrome, they are simply dead.
Posted by smist08 | July 22, 2010 12:43 PM
So perhaps they should run Safari or Chrome.
Wouldn't that signal a change in the weather up in Seattle.
The beast needs to show that it can make some new moves.
Posted by bt | July 23, 2010 2:43 PM
I think what will kill Windows Mobile 7 is the 99 dollar yearly subscription and 99 dollar certification. No developer in their right mind will spend all that money to land on Windows Mobile 7 when they can spend half the money and get on the far more profitable iPhone, or spend less than a third of the cost of the yearly subscription to land on Android's one time developer fee, which is at this point reminiscent of the iPhone's earlier days.
Microsoft cannot pretend to be in the same position as Apple and company. The fact is that Microsoft is loosing customers and developers, and if Microsoft wants to retain long term growth, then they'll have to give up immediate revenue from developers.
Posted by fireblix | July 23, 2010 10:03 PM
Ok, here's the facts:
1. The market is now led by iPhone and Android which is very advance phone.
2. The competitors are there quite a while. If Phone7 finally makes it's way to the market, the competitors have been there for half a year or probably more.
It only make sense that Phone7 has to be using cutting edge technology, best UI and offering great experience. 'Good enough' won't make it. The chance here is very small. very very small.
Posted by BurningZeppelin | July 24, 2010 10:37 AM
I agree with above. "Good enough" ??? C'mon it has to a lot better or it's toast. Though it will take a year or two, it will die the "Kin" death. IMHO.
Not have HTML5, when large parts of HTML5 work now in Chrome, Safari, Firefox, etc., to me that is not even "good enough".
They ridiculed Apple for not supporting Flash, WP7 in first incarnation won't, either.
And a phone without copy and paste? Gack.
Posted by rosswell | July 29, 2010 6:52 PM
The main problem I have is that Microsoft is consciously attempting to copy too much of Apple’s approach. And it’s doing this just as Apple is losing smartphone market share to the more open Android ecosystem.
In short, too little, too late.
Posted by Lawrence D’Oliveiro | August 4, 2010 7:19 AM
IMO, dev eagerness is WP7's strongest single advantage over the competition. 1) The dev tools and platform for building WP7 apps are light years ahead of iPhone's and light minutes ahead of Android's. 2) The hordes of .NET developers out there already know how to code for it (especially Silverlight and WPF developers). I personally know very few .NET developers who aren't either dabbling or deploying already (and it hasn't even shipped yet!) Bottom line: WP7 is a developer's dream and we know it.
Posted by Tim Greenfield | September 26, 2010 6:40 PM