It's hard to get excited about yet another Microsoft slip date.

But the fact that both Yukon (the next version of SQL Server) and Whidbey (the next version of Visual Studio) are now looking like mid-2005 products is a big deal. Here's why:

Yukon and Whidbey are the crux of what Microsoft's been calling since last year its "Yukon wave." Waves, in Microsoft parlance, are more than just individual products. They are entire interrelated families of products.

Consequently, when a wave recedes, it drags out to sea more than just a single product. Whidbey and Yukon are entwined like seaweed strands. When one drifts, so does the other. But other Microsoft (not to mention third-party) products that were set to take advantage of Yukon's features — say, the various enterprise server products (such as BizTalk Server, Systems Management Server, etc.) — are now impacted, too.

Then there's the domino effect: When one wave prematurely recedes, the next one takes a hit by default. In this case, the wave set to follow Yukon is Longhorn. The Longhorn Windows releases already have been slipping. But if Yukon doesn't hit until 2005, can Longhorn possibly hit in 2006?

Maybe those rumors of Longhorn in 2007 that we started hearing a couple of weeks ago are more fact than fiction. If so, it won't be just Windows that is delayed. The rest of the Longhorn wave, which includes a new version of Visual Studio (code-named Orcas), a new version of Office (code-named Office 12) and other core Microsoft products will be set back, as well.

Microsoft has relied on the argument that customers are willing to sacrifice timeliness for security and quality. But with Software Assurance, Microsoft's annuity-licensing model, that argument becomes less black-and-white. Why would customers be willing to pay for three years' worth of product updates, if all they get are service packs but no major releases?

An annuity model like Software Assurance depends on regularly delivered product updates around which customers can plan. While it's a given that software development projects are never on time, Microsoft has been especially bad at sticking to its roadmaps.

Analysts and customers recently have been calling on Redmond for the past several weeks to issue updated Windows timeline for planning purposes. In fact, Microsoft needs a major roadmap overhaul across its entire product family. The ones that the company provided to its customers and partners last fall are looking hopelessly out-of-date.

Microsoft customers and partners: What do you say? Should Microsoft stop biting off more than it can chew, by delivering more minor releases, and fewer big-bang products like Yukon? Are Microsoft's increasingly frequent and major slips in delivery targets having a negative impact on your business? Or do you just routinely factor delays of a year or more into all your Microsoft product planning?

Write me at mswatch@ziffdavis.com and
let me know what you think.