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Before kicking off my 2004 predictions column, I'd like to offer a quick self-critique. After reviewing my predictions from last year, I'd say (to be generous) that your all-seeing Microsoft Watcher achieved a barely 50/50 accuracy rate.
This year, while I am admittedly going out on a few precarious limbs, I vow to do better.
Read the First Microsoft Watch Predictions Column Here
But back to 2003 for a moment. Like most, if not all, of my colleagues, I underestimated last January just how late Longhorn will be. No Longhorn betas hit in 2003, as I had expected; instead, they are currently expected to begin dribbling out in the latter half of 2004. To Microsoft's credit, the company did distribute an alpha (a k a "technical preview") of Longhorn client in October, 2003.
I was dead-on, however, in my year-ago claim that Microsoft would push back the next-to-impossible 2003 target for "Yukon," the next version of SQL Server, and "Whidbey," the next version of the Visual Studio tool suite. Last January, Microsoft was still claiming these two wares would ship by the end of 2003. (More on Yukon and Whidbey, later in this column....) I wasn't far off the mark, either, regarding my predictions on MSN making continued gains on AOL, as a result of AOL's own inteptness, more than anything else. (In fact, by year-end 2003, the MSN business unit was actually in the black.)
I also was prescient, re: the lackluster reception for corporate instant messaging and the Tablet PC. Neither proved nearly as big as Microsoft had hoped during the past year.
But, wow, was I wrong when it came to rights management. Not only did Microsoft manage to get its rights-management server out the door in 2003 (I had predicted 2004), it also did so with almost no public backlash. "Microsoft's myriad DRM efforts will come to be as reviled as Windows' Product Activation feature," I predicted a year ago. Nope. The bulk of users out there don't seem to fear Microsoft's rights-management solutions in the least.
With my mixed 2003 scorecard in mind, let me lurch precariously into my second annual batch of Microsoft Watch predictions:
1. Yukon and Whidbey slip to 2005. Microsoft execs swore up and down this summer that they will deliver Yukon and Whidbey before the end of calendar 2004. But they also admitted that the first Whidbey beta and the second Yukon one won't be out until mid-year. The numbers just don't add up. I hope I'm wrong (because, if I am not, Microsoft won't deliver any major new product releases in the server or tools space this year). But my current bet is we won't see the final Yukon or Whidbey until 2005 (albeit, early).
Check Out the Rest of Our Microsoft Predictions for 2004
2. Microsoft will continue to refuse to call XP SP2 a new operating system release, but the company will package, distribute and market it like one. Remember Windows 95, OSR2, which Microsoft released in 1996? Microsoft never characterized OSR2 as a brand-spanking-new release of Windows 95, but it quietly delivered the major update to OEMs, ISVs and retail outlets, as if it were a crucial upgrade. I predict that Windows XP Service Pack 2, due in mid-2004 (my guess: Q3), will be the same. Microsoft has maintained it won't charge existing XP customers for the SP2 upgrade, but the company will pull out all the stops to make sure folks know it's a big deal. (The biggest Windows client announcement of 2004, however, will be the 64-bit XP release for AMD Athlon. But I don't expect Microsoft to fete that rollout too wildly, so as not to upset its partner in arms, Intel.)
3. Speaking of Windows, Microsoft will finally come clean on its new Longhorn client and server release dates. Microsoft is loath to assign a due-date to a next-gen product, and with good reason. Ninety-nine percent of the time, it misses the target and is chided for being late. Enter Longhorn, the next version of Windows client and server. Microsoft once characterized Longhorn client as a 2004 release. Then a 2005 one. This year, execs hinted 2006. (And no one wants to talk about server release dates at all.) Microsoft needs to give its developers, partners and customers some updated guidelines. By summer, maybe sooner, I predict Microsoft execs will finally be referring affectionately to its Longhorn client as "Windows 2006."
4. MS CRM 2.0 is a no-show in 2004. According to its summer 2003 timetable, Microsoft is hoping to deliver its second major release of its customer-relationship-management suite by Q3 of 2004. But given Redmond only released 1.2 in late December, that Q3 date is sounding pretty ambitious. And the company is dropping a few hints that 2005 is more of a realistic target. I am starting to doubt MS CRM 2.0 will materialize in 2004.
5. Microsoft will shake up (or shake down) its mobile/embedded business unit. To say the Microsoft mobile business unit has been off to a slow start is to be generous. Things got so bad that former mobile corporate VP Juha Christensen quit in 2003 (and Ziff Davis Internet editor-in-chief Jim Louderback volunteered to take over). Granted, Microsoft's been slowly but surely signing up more first-tier partners. But the beleaguered mobile division needs a serious jump-start. Maybe folding mobile/embedded into Windows client would be a start?
6. Something's gotta give, re: security. Customers are crazed. Partners are piqued. And Microsoft's shareholders are none too satisfied. But so far, no heads have rolled and relatively little blame has been assumed by the Redmondiands for the company's abysmal security record. In 2004, Microsoft's got to do a more convincing job of proving it's sorry, while simultaneously shoring up the continually discovered security holes in its flagship products. More Webcasts and fewer security patches just ain't gonna cut it. It's time for a sacrificial lamb — or, at least, a break on buggy-software prices — to make amends.
7. Xbox "Next" will appear before anyone's expecting it. The common wisdom is that Microsoft will show a very early prototype of Xbox 2.0 this spring, but ship no new console until 2005. But our tipsters are hinting that some type of interim Xbox release (possibly code-named "Bobsled") could be in the works. All should become clearer later this week, at the Consumer Electronics Show 2004 in Vegas. Stay tuned for more details.
8. Digital meetings become the newest rallying cry of Microsoft's information worker business unit (and Ringcam, Group VP Jeff Raikes' newest pet project). Raikes championed the TabletPC like no other Microsoft exec, save Chairman BillG himself. We predict Raikes will become the foremost champion of the RingCam, that handy-dandy Microsoft Research device designed to make Webcast meetings more life-like — and that he'll be banging the drum most loudly in 2004 for Microsoft Office Live Meeting.
9. Microsoft will devise yet another licensing option to help combat open source in other countries. Microsoft's been rolling out all kinds of shared-source licensing options in the past year. But a growing number of international government bodies are unconvinced that Microsoft is the low-price leader it claims to be. The Thai government managed to negotiate a sweeter than sweet Microsoft deal for itself. Israel, Germany, China and others understandably want to do the same. Don't be surprised to see Microsoft codify some kind of a "we will not be undersold" licensing scheme for its international government customers in 2004.
10. Microsoft hires Miguel. Tim Bray. And/or some other big names in 2004. More and more techies are popping the Red Pill and joining the Empire. Microsoft execs have made no bones about their interest in bringing on board more high-profile execs, especially those with Web-services-savvy. Will Novell's Miguel de Icaza succumb to Don Box's overtures? Will Scoble make a convincing case for hiring Bray? Time will tell.
Got any Microsoft predictions for 2004 of your own with which you're willing to part? Zing them to me at mswatch@ziffdavis.com. And Happy 2004!
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Comments (1)
Microsoft has been fighting legal battles for years, but amazingly few people have challenged it in the political arena. I ran for public office last year and made Linux a campaign issue - in Bill Gates' back yard, Seattle. Of course, the media imposed a blackout on my campaign, and I never learned of a single other open source candidate in the entire nation that I could network with.
But I'm turning up the heat this year. This time I'm running for STATE office, and I've launched a new anti-Microsoft website to help get the word out.
My campaign website is at http://www.edrevolt.org/ and my Microsoft site is at http://www.freedomware.us/ Of course, I'll continue to develop both sites.
Please advise me of any other open source candidates you may know of. I know of several in other countries, but none in the U.S.
David Blomstrom, Political Activist and Microsoft Critic
Posted by microsucks | March 26, 2004 9:28 PM