Panther vs. Longhorn: The Rematch
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While Steve Jobs and Bill Gates may both say the desktop wars are over, don't try telling that to the legions of Windows and Mac partisans hanging around the Web.
Kindled by these advocates' smoldering passions, our recent column on the prospects of Apple's and Microsoft's next major OS revs had the effect of tossing a kitchen match on a pile of oily rags. Since the resulting flare-up seems to have generated more heat than light on some message boards focused on the companies' platform prospects, we thought it was worth restating our basic premise: If both companies accomplish most of the competitive feats they're contemplating for their next major OS upgrades, Mac OS X will be running a couple of years ahead of Windows by next fall.
Specifically, some readers took issue with what they described as an apples-and-oranges comparison between the Panther version of Mac OS X (a k a Version 10.3 and due to reach developers in June and end users this fall) and the Longhorn upgrade to Windows (which won't ship until 2005). But that's precisely the point: If Apple sticks to a yearly cycle of product updates between now and 2005, it will be going on Mac OS X 10.5 by the time Longhorn delivers GUI enhancements and other features designed to take on Mac OS X 10.2. Even if Redmond comes through with all of the capabilities it's predicting, it will still be choking on dust kicked up by an additional couple of Mac OS X revs. The other major argument we encounteredespecially from Mac boosterswas the contention that we'd somehow underestimated the capabilities of Mac OS X when enumerating areas where Apple is seeking to match Windows XP. To clarify, the performance and feature enhancements we listed for Panther derive from reports of Apple's own competitive analysis of XP. Apple may be aggressive at marketing its platform advantages, but (unlike some of its most zealous fans) it's also willing to take a long, hard look at places where it may need to try harder. The company has concluded that those areas include GUI responsiveness as well as launch, boot and log-in times; easier access to multiple desktops; the ability to create portable profiles; help-system features that can be extended by third parties; and transparent, file system-level compression and encryption. Laying those issues aside, some readers weighed in with a fresh take on the subject. Consider the colorful scenario laid out by Ed Crelin, president and CEO of MacInsight, a Mac-o-philic computer consultancy: "When Longhorn ships, in fourth quarter 2006, it will probably be facing a Sabertooth with another three years of tweaks and open source support. I pray Longhorn will end up naught but a fine filet.
"Yes, Apple has a bit of a list to work on, but how much is already underway? Panther is probably nearing the end of its alpha already. Lots of red-eyed propellerheads in secret rooms in Cupertino are still cranking 24/7. The speed issue is paramount; better universal client capabilities are needed here (read Win2003 client); Safari (or IE on the Mac) must be fully compatible with all the current WinIE-specific commerce/financial stuff on the web. Is Windows' Java-killer going to be semi-open source enough to incorporate or a why-bother? I fully expect much of this in Panther. (Am I dreaming? When has Apple hit it all on the head?) "Good article (I mean it) but OS wars are a token of the past," writes Francisco J. Bido.
"What you discuss are just the motion blurs of a competitive market that is not really as naive as it was. From a big-picture perspective, the importance of an OS is not a one-to-one feature comparison. After all, OS features are just a bunch of zeros and ones, and it's just a matter of time before they converge to practically the same things or are copied tit-for-tat. Do you think Microsoft is sliding downhill? Could Apple ever be king of the mountain? Drop us a line at mswatch@ziffdavis.com and state your case!
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