PDC's Lucky 7
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News Commentary. I told you so. Contrary to ridiculous reports that Windows 7 wouldn't make the Professional Developers Conference, attendees will get copies. |
A post on the PDC blog confirms what I expected all along: pre-beta software for developers.
On Sept. 17 I blogged: "While others have suggested November or December for the delivery preview build, I'm still assuming Microsoft will aim for the Professional Developers Conference. Considering that WinHEC is just a week later, an end-of-October preview is still the likeliest scenario—that is, if Microsoft wants to release Seven in 2009."
But is PDC soon enough for Microsoft to go from pre-beta to final code? I think so, yes. It's tight, but absolutely doable.
Michael Gartenberg and I bantered over Twitter about Windows 7 ship dates last week. Michael and I used to work together at JupiterResearch. He recently moved back to Jupitermedia, where he blogs about mobile devices.
"No way Windows 7 ships before 2010 unless it's just a reskinned Vista," Michael tweeted.
"What? You expect more? If there's no PDC preview, I agree. PDC preview and I'd bet a new [Windows] on 2009. Not an offer to bet. :)," I responded. I was reviewing Zune software during the conversation and wrote Zune instead of Windows.
Michael knew what I meant. He responded: "Windows 7 needs beta plus 1 year minimum. No way they make holiday 09 with a PDC alpha."
Michael and I are usually in agreement about this kind of thing. But not this time. My prediction is unchanged: If Microsoft delivers a Milestone 3 or M4 build at PDC, the release target for Windows 7 will firmly be holiday 2009; no later. There's a reason why Microsoft launched the Engineering Windows 7 blog in August. The pace of development is increasing, methinks.
Steven Sinofsky, senior veep of the Windows and Windows Live Engineering group, is charged with competently getting out Vista's successor. It's all about delivering a solid product that, through the partner engagement and customer delivery process, will help reinvigorate confidence in Windows. It's not about re-engineering the operating system or adding lots of new flashy features. Given his mandate and Microsoft's acknowledgment that 7 will be based on Vista, Microsoft could easily deliver the next Windows in time for holiday 2009. If I'm wrong, I'll fess up and eat crow, in a post some time next year.
Apple is actually helping Microsoft here. The next version of Mac OS X, Snow Leopard, is supposed to be a performance and spit-and-finish release. Apple isn't planning any new features. That takes pressure off Microsoft, from marketing and mind share perspectives. Macs are selling well, but they're not the biggest competitor to Windows. Competition comes from older Windows versions.
My expectation: Most businesses will skip Windows Vista. The XP gravity well is just too strong. But in another year, the Vista ecosystem of developers, OEMs and peripheral manufacturers will be stronger, particularly for 64-bit applications. Windows 7 can plug into that ecosystem. Windows XP will have been so long in the market and negative perceptions about Vista's changes are so strong, 7 won't need to be exceptionally better. Just good enough—more compatible operationally with existing hardware and software, and looking and feeling more like Microsoft Office.
[Please send your tips or rumors to watchtips at live.com]
Comments (11)
But how will 7 escape the negative perceptions that managed to attach to Vista? It will still be Vista at its core, after all. How is Microsoft going to gloss over that fact?
Posted by Lawrence D'Oliveiro | September 25, 2008 12:23 AM
It looks like you both agree... Windows 7 by 2009 but it will just be a reskinned Vista (depending on your definition of reskinned).
Your definition is "not exceptionally better" - Michael's definition is "reskinned". Its just semantics.
What I am interested in is Microsoft constantly redefining software release cycles to suit its marketing. I still remember Vista beta 2 which was awful and was certainly not feature complete or anything like the final version. Why can't they stick to standard definitions? If they had done that with Vista then I do not think it would have received anywhere near the bad press it did.
The PDC version must be an alpha release since there is no such thing as pre-beta. Its either feature complete or it isn't. If it is alpha, whats the point of showing it to developers?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Software_release_cycle
Posted by billybob | September 25, 2008 7:25 AM
If Windows 7 is going to be ready in 2009, then no changes can be made to the Vista core. No new features. No real performance optimizations. No major UI changes.
I suspect that, through OEM cooperation, they'll improve the quality of device drivers. They'll rework the UAC nonsense. They'll give the desktop a slightly improved look. Windows 7 will be a small incremental improvement over Vista.
But most of all, Windows 7 will be all about a major rebranding effort to remove the stench of Vista.
Posted by Richard | September 25, 2008 8:50 AM
I read a post on Long Zhengs blog where Microsoft Partners such as nVidia already have certified stable device drivers for Windows 7. Another proof that development is well ahead is a post on Yannis Living in Athens Live Space where he notes that the Windows Team accidentally I believe started publishing updates for Windows 7 through WSUS. As you noted, Windows 7 builds on the foundation of Server 2008/Vista SP1, so the compatibility level will be carried forward, anything thats compatible with those two today, will work just the same or hopefully better under 7. Its just that, regardless of how compatible it is with Vista, XP remains on the market and I have not read anything that indicates that Windows XP users will have a smooth upgrade path to 7 or even have an upgrade path at all, although it still is bit too early to determine.
I don't know why anyone assumed that Windows 7 would never be delivered to attendees at PDC or even WinHEC. Those two conferences are where Microsoft gets the ISVs and IHVs pumped for a new release. And it looks like things are definitely on schedule, since WinHEC and PDC are usually months or years apart. 2003 and 2005 were good examples, WinHEC in May and PDC in October, 2005, WinHEC in April where build 5048 was given out to attendees and PDC where build 5219 was given out, this was like a few months after Vista beta 1 (5112) which was given to private testers.
You need to also clear up another misconception, BETA 1 releases of Windows are always private, there are websites claiming that Microsoft will release a public build of Windows 7 in Dec. Not true, Microsoft doesn't do that until beta 2, prior XP, 2000 wasn't given a corporate preview until beta 3 and you had pay for it.
Posted by Andre Da Costa | September 25, 2008 9:00 AM
Dammit, you whiners get with the program. If WE say 7 is an upgrade, then it's an upgrade! Don't make me start monkey-dancing again -- I'm sick of your hair splitting definitions and feature comparisons. Now get out of here before I pick up a chair...
Posted by Steve B. | September 25, 2008 1:08 PM
Don't forget, though, that Vista itself wasn't REALLY incubated for very long: After years of playing around with an oversized monstrosity, it was redefined, developed, and basically delivered in barely two years.
By cutting out most everything except the lipstick and some performance improvements, I think that a rapid-to-market "Vista Second Edition" is quite plausible. And, like Win-98 SE, it could be pretty popular and long-lived.
Posted by rickst29 | September 25, 2008 2:38 PM
I followed a link from Andre's home page to this article:
news.cnet.com/8301-13860_3-10048142-56.html?tag=mncol;posts
"Microsoft has decided that Windows 7 won't include built-in programs for e-mail, photo editing, and movie making, as was done with Windows Vista, CNET News.com has learned."
Microsoft's Brian Hall says that this is done to make Windows 7 less monolithic and therefore easier and quicker for Microsoft to release and update,
But some of the comments left me ROTFLMAO...
--------------------
"Err, you're saying that nobody uses email? Really?"
--------------------
"How do I organize my photos?" -- "You don't!!!"
"How do I make a movie?" -- "You could download and install something, or just forget about movies!!!"
"How do I read my email?" -- "Toss this thing out and use your iPhone!!!"
"Why should I buy this?" -- "You shouldn't!!!!"
Everything becomes cheaper and easier!
Posted by Philosopher | September 25, 2008 3:10 PM
wrt to windows 7 is vista at core:
well, if instead of just babbling what you saw on slashdot you actually looked up on microsoft release cycles, you would know that it's actually windows 2008 server at it's core. Just like XP 2 SP2 is windows 2003 server. That also means a SP2 for Vista is a long way off.
Posted by Carlos | September 25, 2008 6:26 PM
Well Joe,
While you might be right about the when Windows Seven will come out, I stand by my prediction of Summer 2008. As Microsoft needs to Call Vista/SP2 by a new new name to peddle this turkey. The faster Microsoft gets Windows Seven out, they can put the shame of Vista behind them.
Windows 7 Beta in October, final in June 2009?
tgdaily.com/content/view/39327/140/
Windows 7 Looking Like a June 2009 Delivery
internetnews.com/bus-news/article.php/3771391/Windows+7+Looking+Like+a+June+2009+Delivery.htm
Posted by chips (the real one, spelled little c with an s on the end) | September 27, 2008 6:20 PM
@chips
No, in spite of the sources you give, it will be released in August 2009. But what's a couple of months?
Posted by Douglas S. Taylor | September 28, 2008 11:07 PM
So I wonder what the 'Get a Mac' ad will be.
PC wearing a Tie, one side says Vista, one side says '7' and Mac asks "PC...What's with the tie?"
Oh, I upgraded to Windows 7 but it's really the same as Vista...don't tell anybody. It's the same at the core it just looks a little different and has the spiffy new name "SEVEN!"
You get the idea. Apple will crucify them if it's just a reskin.
Posted by Allen | October 27, 2008 1:09 PM