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June 20, 2003 8:38 AM

What's Next for Microsoft and Apple?



After Microsoft dropped the bombshell last week that it is ceasing all work on future Internet Explorer releases for the Mac, industry watchers have been wondering aloud what's next for the dynamic duo.

It's an interesting time to speculate, on the eve of Apple's Worldwide Developer Conference next week. For its part, Microsoft is swearing up and down that it won't off Office for the Mac. And a number of Microsoft watchers seemingly believe the Redmondians — pointing to Microsoft's growing paranoia over OpenOffice and StarOffice as a big reason why it won't dump its only non-Windows version of its desktop office suite.

Read Apple's and Microsoft's Statements on the IE Move

And Rothenberg on What's On Tap for WWDC


Me? I am not quite so sure that Microsoft and Apple will be forever joined at the hip. I have my reasons (in addition to being generally skeptical of Microsoft's motives):

  • Apple is continuing to evolve its PowerPoint killer, Keynote. (The Keynote 1.0 release went live at the start of this year.) Apple's Keynote unveiling undoubtedly failed to amuse the powerful Microsoft Office team. (And the fact that Keynote's been getting decent reviews probably isn't endearing Apple to Microsoft, either.)

    See "Apple Takes on PowerPoint"

  • Apple been rumored for years to be developing its own version of Word for the Mac. Now that Keynote is out of the bag, maybe CEO Jobs will pull the alleged Word competitor out of his hat. If/when that happens, I doubt the Office team is going to take that lying down.

  • As services take over from packaged software as the big money maker, Apple and Microsoft increasingly will be vying for subscription customers. Streaming music/video will be just one area where the two butt heads. Watch for the pair to field warring e-learning services; digital-photo services; and online storage services in the coming months.

  • Above all else, Microsoft is famous for saying one thing and doing another. Just because Microsoft trumpets that it won't kill Virtual PC for the Mac or Entourage doesn't convince me that these products are immune from the chopping block. Times change. Business unit managers quit. IT budgets wither away. How much money does Microsoft's Mac business unit need to contribute to the bottom line in order to continue to look like a good business risk?

    Let's not forget that Microsoft is Apple's biggest and most important ISV. Just before Microsoft invested $150 million worth of chump change in Apple in 1997, the concern was that Apple was finally, really doomed. Folks were worried Microsoft would pull the plug and it would all be over before OS X (and the third-generation PowerPC) had its chance in the market. The Microsoft support was essential for that transition.

    Sure, Microsoft groused earlier this year that Apple wasn't selling enough Mac OS X units to make its efforts worthwhile. But that was pure Microsoft posturing (coupled with a frustrated former MacBU general manager Kevin Browne) as much as anything, I'd argue.

    What will happen in the next episode of the Microsoft-Apple soap opera? Will the partnership unravel further? Will we see Bill and Steve in Judge Judy's Court? Or will the two end up as bridge-playing buddies in the not-too-distant future?


    Write me at mswatch@ziffdavis.com and let me know what you think.

    A tip of the hat to Storage Supersite editor David Morganstern for his insight and thoughts on this column.

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