If it's the Sunday night before Comdex, it must be time for yet another Bill Gates keynote. And, if recent history offers any guidance, we can expect get an earful about the Tablet PC.

But if I were a betting woman heading off to Sin City this year, I'd wager that Gates won't be waxing poetic to the extent he usually does about the coolest, newest gadgets that are part of Microsoft's vision for the digital decade. Instead, I'm expecting Gates & Co. to spend a lot more time focusing on Microsoft monumental security problems and its strategy to combat its seemingly endless parade of patches.

That doesn't mean BillG won't be doing his usual show-and-tell with forthcoming gadgets and gizmos, like next-gen Tablets, smart watches, personal-media players and the like. After all, every year since 2000, Microsoft's chief software architect beat the drum for tablet-style devices, even though Microsoft didn't launch the Tablet OS officially until a year ago. In 2001, Gates made the Tablet PC the centerpiece of his Comdex address. Last year, while the Smart Personal Objects Technology (SPOT) devices stole the limelight, Tablets were still a hot button for Gates in his annual Comdex remarks.

Gates Previews the Tablet at Comdex 2000

Gates Demos Tablets at Comdex 2001

And Gates Highlights Tablets in the Digital Home at Comdex 2002

This year, Gates is expected to take the wraps off "Lonestar," likely to be named Windows XP Tablet PC Edition 2004. As company execs noted recently, Lonestar is on tap to debut by mid-2004. (An early version of the Lonestar software development kit was announced at the Professional Developers conference late last month.)

See "Lonestar Due in Mid-2004"

The Lonestar release isn't slated to be a major one. Its biggest advance will be better handwriting recognition.

The bigger Tablet OS release won't happen until the Longhorn wave hits (think 2006). By then, the Tablet version of Windows will support the Longhorn "Avalon" presentation subsystem. Avalon will be pen-aware, thus elevating the stylus to be an input device on par with the keyboard. Any Avalon element will be able to support ink, according to company officials who spoke at the Professional Developers Conference. And the Longhorn version of the Tablet OS also will feature better ink recognition and ink analysis (for drawings and shapes, not just writing).

Lonestar won't be allowed to shine as brightly as it might have been any other year, however. Gates will need to spend a considerable amount of time Sunday night reiterating the degree to which Microsoft is putting Trustworthy Computing at the center of its mission. He will need to be contrite, rather than critical of customers who fail to apply Microsoft-issued patches.

At the same time, Gates will need to convince Comdex attendees that Microsoft has some fresh, realistic ideas on how to safeguard customers against worms and viruses. Expect to hear more about new patching mechanisms, like Windows Software Update Services 2.0 and Microsoft Update (a one-stop patch repository for all products), as well as about Redmond's plans for making security more understandable and easily deployable. (Isn't it time for the company to acknowledge one of its worst-kept secrets: The PC Satisfaction Trial?)

Get More Details on the PC Sat Trial Here

If you were setting Microsoft's Comdex 2003 agenda, what would you have Bill Gates focus on? What message does Microsoft need most to convey, and how would you deliver it?

Write me at mswatch@ziffdavis.com and
let me know what you think.