Windows Home Server Predictions

Home Server is a milestone product, even if I'm skeptical about broad consumer appeal. Cost will be an important factor affecting adoption.

Disclosure: I purposely read none of the Windows Home Server previews or news stories, so that my predictions wouldn't be influenced.

What I expect from Windows Home Server in the near-to-distant future:

• Initial appeal will be for home-based businesses, very small businesses and digital media enthusiasts. How many consumers are really going to rush out and buy a home server? Local backup, personal Web server and Windows Live features should appeal to the other three audiences, however.
• Microsoft and partners will enable a number of content-to-go scenarios, so that people can access their stuff—or even give others access to their stuff—from their personal server.
• TV shows will be among the content available on the go. If someone has a Vista PC, Windows Home Server and Windows Mobile smart phone, he or she wouldn't need a Slingbox to stream recorded television.
• Streamable stuff will include rights-protected content, such as Zune music or third-party video rentals. Rather than stream from the PC to the TV, people would be able to stream across the Internet to a PC.
• Windows Home Server will be able to manage rights for various services or devices. I would watch for music and games, at the least.
• Live services, particularly Windows and Xbox, will connect to Home Server.
• The product will open up new sales and services opportunities for the channel. Many consumers can't properly configure a Wi-Fi router now, so it's unrealistic that many could set up a server without some assistance.

In addition, it would make sense for Microsoft and its hardware partners to make Home Server the default gateway to the consumers' broadband service, particularly if there will be an IP address assigned through Windows Live.

Update: Earlier today I offered some critique of Microsoft's "Wow" marketing campaign for Windows Vista. I'm more impressed with the Windows Home Server promo site, the Center for Digital Amnesia Awareness, which is rather clever.

There's a viral quality, particularly the Intervention Center, where site visitors can e-mail friends about their bad habits, such as being disorganized or engaging in risky behavior.

The guy dressed in the white coat rightly claims: "It's a good day to be a fake doctor."