XP Pro Execution Set, Home Gets Reprieve
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News Analysis. Windows XP Home goes where even Vista Home Basic dares not: ultra low-cost PCs. |
This afternoon, Microsoft officially announced that Windows XP Home would be available for ultra low-cost PCs until 2010. The end date, tentatively June 30 of that year, somewhat depends on when Microsoft ships Vista successor Windows 7. I see the choice of XP Home as reactionary—to Linux prospects on these devices and to Vista's greater hardware demands. The licensing extension also means that ultra low-cost PCs running Vista Home won't be enterprise ready.
XP life-extension rumors circulated ahead of today's announcement. But the rumors bring little good news to businesses, consumers or OEMs looking for a broad XP lifecycle extension. Microsoft plans to pull Windows XP from the OEM channel, as planned, on June 30. As has been Microsoft's custom with past Windows versions, the software would still be available through the system builder channel—for another seven months.
From a purely Vista perspective, Microsoft is right to close down the main XP OEM channel. In my December analysis, "What Went Wrong with Windows Vista?", I put the Windows XP ecosystem as the top reason. A few weeks later, in my unsolicited 2008 advice to Microsoft, I challenged Microsoft to show some Vista commitment and pull XP out of the OEM market.
But Microsoft has a problem. The emerging class of ultra low-cost PCs—opened up by Asus Eee PC, Intel Classmate and the OLPC (One Laptop Per Child) XO laptop—are better suited to Linux or Windows XP. Devices in this category tend to use flash-based storage. Yesterday, Intel announced its new Atom processors for MIDs (mobile Internet devices) and showed off second-generation Classmate designs. The category is broadening, particularly as seen from robust demand for Eee PC, and it's bringing Linux to mainstream users.
So, Microsoft gave XP Home a life extension for this one device category. What does it all mean:
- The licensing deal results from year-old development work. In April 2007, Orlando Ayala, senior vice president for Microsoft's emerging segments market development group, told me: "We are now running Windows on that device," referring to the XO laptop. In December, Microsoft broadly confirmed Windows on XO development.
- Vista design goals missed the mark. During Microsoft's Professional Developer Conference 2003, Chairman Bill Gates outlined haughty expectations for the 2006 PC. Microsoft looked to meet those system requirements, which later turned out to be too high. The market emphasis on mobility actually put the average Vista computer well below Microsoft's development guidelines. The mobility shift continues, and Vista demands too much.
- Starter Edition isn't coming to established markets. Logistically, Windows Vista Starter Edition would work just fine on lower-powered laptops and deliver the "Windows experience" Michael Dix, Windows Client Product Management general manager, couldn't say enough about in today's Microsoft PressPass Q&A. Isn't Vista the more important Windows experience Microsoft wants people to have? No doubt, but there's a quandary: Mainstream Vista's graphics and memory requirements demand too much from most ultra low-cost PCs—today, anyway. Vista Starter Edition would acceptably run on some systems, but not without Microsoft loosening the licensing for all markets.
- Windows XP Home low-powered PCs won't be enterprise ready. XP Home lacks networking features that are essential to connecting to domains or Active Directory. Dix harped that customers "want Windows broadly available for this new class of devices, because they want the familiarity, compatibility and support only available on the Windows platform." That's not what enterprises would get from low-powered PCs running a consumer Windows version.
- Microsoft is trying to usurp ultra low-cost PC marketing—and create some FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) about devices running other operating systems. For starters—and this is not nitpicking—Microsoft's Q&A used the acronym ULCPC, which is not the term applied to these devices. I couldn't find the term used anywhere, in doing a Web search before Microsoft's announcement. Dix's Q&A also positions the device category as being for "first-time PC buyers" and as "low-cost companions" to "primary Windows-based PCs." Those are unsupported, hasty generalizations that diminish the device category's importance and raise Windows importance.
- Linux will gain against Windows in a critically important new computing category. Dix is wrong. Ultra low-cost PCs and MIDs aren't Windows PC companions, they're replacements—for many end users. And Linux will deliver the enterprise capabilities lacking in Windows XP Home. Online forums are full of praise from early Eee PC adopters. There are reasons why Intel launched MIDs at its developer forum in China rather than the U.S., and one is the emphasis placed on Linux suitability for the category.
- Low-powered devices are ideal for consuming Web 2.0 content. The "i" in MID refers to Internet for a reason. These lower-powered devices are ideally suited for consuming Web content. Right now, storage is small, but that's little problem if most applications and content is consumed online. Yesterday, Google started offering offline access to Docs, diminishing problems caused by lacking online connectivity. I suppose that Google's timing could be coincidental to Intel's Atom and MID announcements.
- Enterprises will widely deploy ultra low-cost PCs and MIDs—just as they do cell phones today—with or without Microsoft's support. There are simply too many potential vertical purpose benefits to be gained from this device category. I predict the devices' appeal will increase as more enterprises shifted to hosted services, whether on premises or from third parties, and as better deployment and management tools come to market.
Returning to the topic of XP's OEM expiration, Microsoft will continue to support the operating system long after June 30—mainstream support until April 14, 2009 and extended through April 8, 2014. Enterprises could still buy the software via volume licensing, which gives mixed benefits to Microsoft. Enterprises could buy Vista PCs and downgrade to XP, but they would need the right volume-licensing contract to do that (think Enterprise Agreement).
XP Home's life extension through a single, select OEM channel, is unusual. Lifecycle support for Microsoft consumer products typically ends five years after release. But in January 2007, Microsoft extended Windows XP Home and Media Center mainstream support until the second Tuesday in April 2009; extended support ends five years later. The latter five years is significant. Microsoft doesn't typically offer extended support for consumer products. From a support perspective, therefore, Microsoft already had policies in place for today's XP Home extension.
Comments (25)
I prefer to have XP Pro available for at least another year or two. Vista is an absolute horrible mess of an OS and I absolutely refuse to spend any $$$ or time with it on a new purchase. I will be purchasing another XP pro laptop before June if MS goes through the plan to get rid of this capable OS. Vista is the 'New Coke' of the 1980s.
No thanks Microsoft. I like your products in general but Vista is a total dog.
Posted by JM | April 3, 2008 3:43 PM
I wonder what will happen to Microsoft's Windows XP activation when XP is generally withdrawn from the marketplace?
Will diehard XP users no longer be able to activate their software should the need to reinstall arise.....and that is not impossible?
Posted by Bernie | April 3, 2008 4:15 PM
The People(without Pride):Please, please Ms let us buy XP, Vista is not yet good enough.
MS (with arrogance): Go the Hell and use what I want you to buy from me, I don't care about you or your wishes(If I allow XP to be around still, it's to kill damn Linux-it could make you decide not to buy my product!!)
The Shills: Listen to MS, it knows better than you and knows what is best for you. MS, you are the Best! (aside: MS, I want my Notebook).
The people: Thanks, MS.
-----------
That sounds bad, doesn't it? But it is the truth.
It's time for a change, it is not?
Posted by Marco | April 3, 2008 5:48 PM
Joe, so it seems XP Home will be around in some form for quite awhile. Another failure for Vi$ta, is what this amounts to.
But, where goes Home, also goes XP Pro. Think about this, its the other shoe about to drop. M$ is now almost "giving away" to the low cost system builders, this "new" (haha, right) version of XP home, so they won't put Linux on these machines. Where will M$ make the money that is so near and dear to there black heart? True they keep linux off those systems, perhaps, and therefore keep many chained as Micro$erfs. But no real cash comes upfront from selling (almost giving away) XP Home on these low cost new machines. M$ must have a plan to get more money out of the folks that buy these machines with this special version of XP Home. And even I can see what it is, sell them upgrades to XP Pro, whoops, another "special version." Its called repackaging the same old software and selling it again as something "new."g
Posted by chips | April 3, 2008 6:39 PM
interesting...
Posted by puppet | April 3, 2008 7:24 PM
Bernie :
I wonder what will happen to Microsoft's Windows XP activation when XP is generally withdrawn from the marketplace?
Will diehard XP users no longer be able to activate their software should the need to reinstall arise.....and that is not impossible?
Posted by Bernie | April 3, 2008 4:15 PM
Well Bernie you crack it, Microshaft can go to hell with their activation bull shit I'v done it before and i will do it again they can kiss my ass
Posted by Cracker | April 3, 2008 7:37 PM
Bernie;
There is a wonderful crack that activates both Vista x64, x86, XP Professional and Home just fine that works in a snap. Small, effective, and easy to use -- So simple, my caveman friend can use it.
Posted by Douglas S. Taylor | April 3, 2008 8:11 PM
XP Pro... RIP
XP Pro, its like I just lost a good friend. Something that overall worked and did what it was supposed to do. Unfortunately good things don't last forever, and as a passing of a long time friend ...one must move on.
Windows XP is where I leave Windows for good. I am moving on to other operating systems that I can run on all my computers (and not what MSFT says I should use)..and that is Linux.
MSFT has just further alienated more customers in this (in my opinion) very dumb move. Vista cannot run on 75% of the world's computers as it is. Even that 75% figure is generous, it could be as much as 80 to 85%.
If I were a share holder of MSFT, I'd be pretty pissed that MSFT is discontinuing a good money maker and a good stable product like XP for Vista which is something that can only run on maybe 15 to 25% of the world's machines.
I would not be surprised if there is fall out from the IT community and from the stockholders from this. I wonder if some would call for Ballmer's resignation.
MSFT is pissing up a rope by keeping XP Home only for low cost laptops. Linux is making more and more progress in other countries, especially those with open source mandates.
This is Microsoft's loss (and their stupidity) and a major win for Linux and of course Apple. I am sure many in the Linux and Apple community are cheering over this one. Not because of the death of XP per se, but MSFT just nailed their coffin shut, and Linux and Apple are poised to take even more market shares from MSFT. The penguin is dancing!
Posted by Ralph | April 3, 2008 9:00 PM
For years, Gates went on stage at keynote after keynote; year after year proclaiming the future where small, internet connected devices would figure prominently in our daily lives.
Now here we are, and their shiny new OS can't scale (down) to run on them. Vista is the complete antithesis of this hardware class.
They have no one to blame but themselves.
Posted by Christopher | April 3, 2008 9:38 PM
Dix's Q&A also positions the device category as being for "first-time PC buyers" and as "low-cost companions" to "primary Windows-based PCs." Those are unsupported, hasty generalizations that diminish the device category's importance and raise Windows importance.
> And who are you to decide that? You are just another 'Microsoft' analyst in a sea of millions. Thats why I gotta respect people like Steve Jobs, they consider you the ill of the industry. You have not taken into account that Windows Vista is the current flagship operating system from Microsoft, its just this what about XP and the Enterprise, what about XP and that. Stop! If businesses do want Domain Join functionality, they will get it through Vista or XP Pro. You mentioned that downgrade rights are only applicable to the Microsoft Volume License 'Enterprise Agreement', while at the same time you mention Enterprise in your article so many times. Its most likely they will just take that subscription model which it will provide the flexible functionality you claim they lack. If the MID can run XP Home, I don't see nothing preventing those IT folks putting XP 'Pro' on it since they are entitled to it under their MS Enterprise agreement.
Posted by Andre Da Costa | April 3, 2008 9:41 PM
I am hoping that by the time my XP becomes useless, or otherwise non update-able that I can cut over to Linux. I am not buying anything else in software that is windows dependent between now and then. I am hoping improvements in some linux desktop graphics application and some web authoring application will come by then. Right now, Open office is about the functional equivalent of office 2000, which does everything I need from an office suite. What would be really great if someone could make one of the linux builds have a desktop that looks and acts like the old windows 2000. As far as a business platform, there was literally nothing wrong with that. I agree with the above poster. Vista is the tech equivalent to new coke. It is a bust IMHO.
Posted by Earthceuticals | April 3, 2008 10:44 PM
it's good to have windows xp home insted of buying a new windows vista home
i think microsoft should continue with windows xp
it's a very good os don't have so many problems like windows vista have
i think microsoft stop selling vista and promote windows xp and come with their new os so called windows 7
Posted by ajay | April 4, 2008 12:47 AM
Just a thought ... does XP Home come in a 64-bit version?
Posted by Lawrence D'Oliveiro | April 4, 2008 4:58 AM
Guys, be patient- I think that the odds are very good that in a few more weeks we will get a big announcement that MS is in effect "New Cokeing" Vista.
Keep in mind that were the company to make this decision, it would be kept confidential until the retail and OEM channels were sufficiently prepared, so as not to torpedo current sales. The right timing would be in a few weeks around SP3.
I have no knowledge that this is going to happen. Just making the point that were it to happen, they would not want to leak it.
If XP does get retired, then I am rooting for the company miss a quarter so that the board steps in and sends Ballmer packing and off to the golf course. It's unfortunate that after 25+ years of great products we've arrived at this point where things have to get this harsh and personal, but Vista is a cancer on on the entire PC ecosystem. It's time for Bill and Steve to pull their heads out of the sand and acknowledge reality- that they are destroying the PC with their current failed strategy.
Posted by Jason | April 4, 2008 12:47 PM
XP Pro you have been convicted of the crime of being too capable and competing with the dog OS known as Vista. You have been sentenced by the MS elite to oblivion.
Does XP Pro have any last words before the sentence of decompiling is carried out?
Posted by JM | April 4, 2008 1:00 PM
Cracker has the truth of it wrapped up. I too will continue to crack XPPro.
Posted by Rick | April 4, 2008 2:34 PM
JM says:
"Does XP Pro have any last words before the sentence of decompiling is carried out?"
XP Pro replies:
"Yes, your honor. Being of sound mind and body, I hereby bequeath my user base to Apple and to Linux."
Posted by Philosopher | April 4, 2008 4:01 PM
I prefer to have XP Pro available for at least another year or two. Vista is an absolute horrible
Posted by yehia | April 6, 2008 11:18 PM
No matter what MS does I still refuse to steal from them.
Posted by Bernie | April 8, 2008 8:20 PM
No matter what MS does I still refuse to steal from them.
Posted by Bernie | April 8, 2008 8:21 PM
Will diehard XP users no longer be able to activate their software should the need to reinstall arise.....and that is not impossible?
Posted by ödev | April 16, 2008 3:15 PM
I prefer to have XP Pro available for at least another year or two. Vista is an absolute horrible
Posted by Yemek Tarifleri | April 16, 2008 3:16 PM
Cracker has the truth of it wrapped up. I too will continue to crack XPPro.
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