Microsoft's 'Big Bang' Is When?
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Last night's release of Windows Server Longhorn Beta 3 is a monumental event for Microsoft, much bigger than the launch of Windows Vista. How big may depend on when Microsoft releases Vista Service Pack 1. |
Windows Server is the nucleus of Microsoft's enterprise strategy, around which all other products—even Windows client—revolve. Longhorn's eventual release, which Microsoft claims will be later this year, will likely set off major software upgrades, including Office 2007 and Windows Vista.
Laura DiDio, a Yankee Group research fellow, described the expected phenomenon as the "Big Bang." Other analyst firms' projections of Windows Vista upgrades, including Gartner, synch well with the Big Bang theory.
Gartner expects a first major round of Vista deployments to start in the fourth quarter, with most businesses waiting until second quarter 2008. The timing is also right for Windows Server Longhorn's release and potential pull on Windows client upgrades. Many IT organizations are willing to wait for Longhorn Server as to coordinate multiple infrastructure upgrades around the same time, DiDio said.
When isn't When
But there is a wrinkle—uncertainty which Microsoft has created. Back in November, Bob Muglia, Microsoft's senior vice president for server and tools, told eWeek that Windows Server Longhorn and Windows Vista Service Pack 1 would ship "simultaneously." Such a plan would be quite sensible, as, according to Muglia, "it is one source code base" for both products. Since then, Microsoft has backed away from this coordinated release commitment.
Yesterday afternoon, I asked Helene Love Snell, Windows Server product manager, about whether Microsoft still plans to ship Windows Vista SP1 with Longhorn Server. She told me it was too early to give a date. Huh? How can it be too early if Microsoft already gave a date? It's either, yes, the commitment remains or, no, the plan has changed.
Love Snell gracefully backed out of the corner by saying she couldn't speak for Windows Client. I couldn't argue with that position. Later, I chatted with a Microsoft spokesperson for Windows Client.
"It is too early to talk about SP1's delivery, including whether it will be released at the same time as Windows Server codename Longhorn," she said.
Again, I rebutted that it can't be too early if a major Microsoft executive already committed to a time frame. The spokesperson would only say further that there was "no firm date range for SP1."
Whether or not there is a Big Bang of upgrades—or at least when—hinges as much on Vista SP1's release as Longhorn Server. Already, a number of high-profile Microsoft customers, including Intel, have indicated they would hold back major Vista deployments until release of the first service pack.
Common Code Base
Muglia's date commitment made loads of sense in November, as it still does today. Back in 2004, Microsoft essentially scrapped development work on Windows Vista and started over with fresh code from Windows Server 2003. Since, Microsoft has developed the client and server software, in tandem, off a single code base.
As such, Windows desktop and server product releases are fairly coordinated. For example, the 64-bit versions of Windows XP and Windows Server released to manufacturing simultaneously with the release of Windows Server 2003 Service Pack 1.
Windows Vista's development also has closely tracked with Longhorn Server progress. Microsoft released, in December 2005, simultaneous Windows Vista and Longhorn Server betas. In May 2006, Microsoft simultaneously released new Office 2007, Windows Vista and Longhorn Server betas.
Similarly, Microsoft launched SQL Server 2005 and Visual Studio 2005 a few weeks before Windows Server 2003 R2 released to manufacturing.
It's no coincidence that Windows Server 2003 Service Pack 2 released about two weeks before Microsoft released the feature complete Longhorn Server CTP (Community Technology Preview).
Muglia's November commitment is consistent with Microsoft's desktop and server development pattern. So the question: Who's not telling the truth? If Windows Longhorn Server releases ahead of Vista SP1, the Big Bang—assuming it's real—would likely be delayed. If SP1's release is uncertain but aligned with Longhorn Server's release to manufacturing, both products could ship later than expected. Either way, there is potential impact on enterprise deployments of multiple Microsoft desktop and server products.
When is When?
Right now, Microsoft is keeping to the story that Longhorn Server will be released by end of year. But "release" in Microsoft parlance means release to manufacturing, which isn't the same as customer availability. However, Microsoft is taking the position that Longhorn Server Beta 3 is ready enough for some customers.
"We have close to 1,000 servers in the world already using [Longhorn Server Beta 3]," Love Snell said. Microsoft also already has licensed Internet Information Server 7, which is part of Longhorn Server, to "about 50 hosters."
The production use of a testing product is a sign of stability and customer interest. Touting product use also could be a distraction tactic, regarding when the software really will be available.
Microsoft's reluctance to keep its Vista SP1 commitment isn't the only thing missing.
"We will announce the official name when we release Beta 3, which is on track for the first half of 2007," Muglia told eWeek last November. He was right about the Beta 3 release, but why not the name?
Late last night, a Microsoft spokesperson told me that the naming announcement is "imminent." Does that mean a few days, weeks or months? Product naming yesterday or very soon would be consistent with Longhorn Server tracking for release as previously stated.
The release date of either or both products is important to Microsoft and its customers. There is a huge opportunity for Microsoft if the Big Bang theory proves to be true. If there is a delay in the offing, Microsoft wouldn't want to say. Businesses testing for Vista deployments might forestall the process.
Then there is the enormous impact on other products. Many IT organizations will choose to take one bitter pill—coordinated Exchange Server 2007, Longhorn Server, Office 2007 and Vista deployments around the same time—rather than many pills over time. Hence, the Big Bang, and all contingent on answering the question "When?"
Related:
- Microsoft Releases First Public Beta for 'Longhorn', eWeek, April 25, 2007
- Viridian Delay Foreshadows What About Longhorn Server, Microsoft Watch, April 12, 007
- Longhorn Server Approaches Beta 3, Microsoft Watch, April 5, 2007
- Windows Server 2003 SP2 Goes Thump In the Night, Microsoft Watch, March 13, 2007
- What's Your Exchange?, Microsoft Watch, Dec. 8, 2006
- CIOs: Vista Will Need Heftier Hardware, Microsoft Watch, Dec. 6, 2006
- Windows Server Takes the Lead, Microsoft Watch, Nov. 16, 2006
- Longhorn Server and Vista SP1 to Ship Together, eWeek, Nov. 16, 2006
Comments (23)
i've been running beta3 for a couple of weeks now. it has been on the msdn site.
Posted by mike | April 26, 2007 2:01 PM
I've never understood the logic of waiting to upgrade several critical components at once. Deploying Vista + Office 2007 + Longhorn + Exchange 2007 seems like a disaster movie to me. I'm not admin. I'm a developer so perhaps my perspective is skewed. In developer-land we try to change one thing at a time. Changing everything at once is bad. Why is system administration so much different?
Posted by monsoondawn | April 26, 2007 2:06 PM
I think the big bang strategy for infrastructure is intended to reduce the impact on the rest of the business. Rather than change things continuously over a couple of years worth of projects and roll-outs, change everything as quickly as possible so that internal customers can get back to being productive and stay that way until the next major roll-out. There is a huge value in having a mostly homogeneous environment as well.
Although there is some higher risk if the implementation is done poorly, I've seen more success with that strategy than companies that are in a constant state of phased roll-outs. Often those companies end up with several versions of client and server and none of it working very well.
Posted by Chad | April 26, 2007 2:18 PM
I'm just a user - and from my perspective Vista is a joke. It is obtrusive - awkward - and highly irritating. Very little works with it. Every step has been a nightmare. Office 2007 isn't far behind. My wife and I are seniors but have been computer literate for years. Use them daily in our business. I bought a new computer because the last one wore out. I bought Vista because Dell was pushing it. I will never buy a new MS product again. Maybe after a year or two but not out of the shute. I can't afford the agravation.
Posted by John Leitschuh | April 26, 2007 3:55 PM
About the only way I can see a company deploying all of Microsoft's latest software in a real-world environment if it was inside the actual Microsoft building with Microsoft support just down the hall.
I shudder to think of upgrading every single software product and the same time and the amount of time/money involved in discovering issues.
So yes, the above scenario will work fine for those guys buy 99% of the population will continue to use what works and is tested over time instead of being beta testers for Microsoft.
Using Beta 3 of Longhorn for production use? It doesn't even have a Product name yet for crying out loud!! Geesh.
I fear for the future....
Console users clamoring to be beta testers.
Web services that are in perpetual beta. (Even displayed in the product name).
What's next "Beta" cars? Come try our "beta"
car...for free!!! Just sign this little document here stating if you die in a horrible accident that it wasn't the fault of the "betaness" of the car....
Posted by DosFreak | April 26, 2007 6:19 PM
Having been a long time "microsoftie" I had to draw the line. There is no way we are going to go for the cost of VISTA and the associated hardware.
Yes I have MSDN so I play with the "BETA" stuff (actually even the released software is like beta with the constant patches). Anyway we are looking real hard into the Linux camp and the software (applications) we are looking at run cross platform (ERP/MAIL/SQL etc)"PAID and PAID SUPPORT OS & APPS". The Skill Set is Much better in the Linux arena and the cost (TCO) is actually less than Longhorn+Vista+MSO2007+SQL2005+EXCHANGE07+hardware
Posted by Rick | April 26, 2007 8:53 PM
I read the title thinking more of an implosion.
MSFT is playing catch up with Adobe Flash\Flex\Apollo.
MSFT strategy has always been to protect its OS business thru creating development tools and competing in a way to ensure all devices in some way require a license from MSFT. They do not want you to be able to write an app that can freely run on any other OS.
If buyers have a choice to write cross platform apps why wouldn't they.
Flash and Flex are well entrenched in the RIA space so the real impact of 'whatever it's called' has a better chance of being underwhelming.
Posted by Jay | April 26, 2007 9:13 PM
Again , you bring up the disgraced Laura DiDio.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laura_DiDio
Are you running out of respectable industry observers to support your comment ?
Posted by Eder | April 26, 2007 9:18 PM
John -
"I bought Vista because Dell was pushing it.
I will never buy a new MS product again."
Sounds like you are a candidate for Linux.
Many versions of Linux are as easy to master
as M$ products, but without the vendor's
effort to own you and your hardware.
Runs on current-generation hardware just fine.
Posted by SR | April 26, 2007 9:59 PM
"Last night's release of Windows Server Longhorn Beta 3 is a monumental event for Microsoft, much bigger than the launch of Windows Vista."
The release of a server beta is bigger than the launch of an operating system?
Posted by Phil Deets | April 26, 2007 10:55 PM
SR
Nice post ... too bad no "john" has commented here !
Sounds like a big propaganda piece for Linux to me !
I specially like the part "Many versions of Linux are as easy to master"
Mate one of the things you guys are going on about is that Vista is hard to learn, and yet you can say that !
Which version you don't say either ??
Just another chance for a Linux devotee to try and lure people to it that's all your comment is ! !
And not even a good one at that !
Oh and by the way just to make make sure of my facts I have actually checked the other articles as well you liar.
Posted by Neil | April 26, 2007 11:15 PM
In two words: WHO CARES
At this point, the word "Longhorn" inspires nothing in anybody.
As one person put it before, rather than the explosion, we are awaiting for the Microsoft Implosion. It is no wonder Bill Gates is jumping ship. He has already forseen the end of Microsoft as the market dominator.
And this is just another example of why.
Posted by Kokuryu Tenchi | April 27, 2007 9:27 AM
Great news to see Microsoft Reach this Milestone RTM should not be too far off.
http://exchangeis.com
Posted by ExchangeIS - Exchange 2007 | April 27, 2007 10:02 AM
Neil
Hate to point out the obvious but the 4th comment down is what SR was referring to, the one by " John Leitschuh". First name "John". Posted April 26th, 2007 15:55... yeah?
Posted by Steve | April 27, 2007 11:30 AM
Neil, as I find myself repeating in this forum, just because Windows is easier than Linux does not mean that Linux is difficult. It's a question of mindset. If you're used to the Microsoft way of doing things, then yes, Linux looks alien. But if you have an open mind, Linux is certainly approachable, especially with the excellent graphical desktops available (GNOME, KDE).
Linux devotees might be trying to "lure" people in, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. What's wrong with encouraging the public to check out Linux? What's the harm?
I am operating-system agnostic, but I tell people that there are good alternatives to Windows. Windows isn't for everyone. Linux isn't for everyone. Mac isn't for everyone. One size doesn't fit all.
If Windows doesn't meet your expectations, why not check out Linux or Mac? I just don't get your opposition.
Posted by Richard | April 27, 2007 1:51 PM
Steve
Point taken
Posted by Neil | April 28, 2007 12:21 AM
Richard
"Linux devotees might be trying to "lure" people in, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. What's wrong with encouraging the public to check out Linux? What's the harm?"
There is no harm, because they go straight back to Windows as one commenter has said that he did.
What I don't like are their tactics for one, and the reason why they do it !
Their tactics are to sling enough mud at Vista and people will think (as one commenter has already daid on this site) "Oh my friend says Vista is not good, he says Linux is better", they have not even seen it or used it how do they know for sure that what they are "told" is correct !
THEY DON'T ! !
Posted by Neil | April 28, 2007 12:28 AM
Richard
I almost forgot..."Windows isn't for everyone. Linux isn't for everyone. Mac isn't for everyone. One size doesn't fit all."
Never truer words were spoken, I completely agree with you.
So Apple and Linux devotees be happy with yours and leave us alone, if we want to swap over, we know that you are there.
Please just leave it at that.
I am a "trekkie" and I completely agree with the "Non interference policy" of Star Trek.
It should be implemented on the earth.
I saw a documetary the other day that showed that because the Spanish Catholics believed the Mayan civilization was "Barbaric" they burned all their writings and so today we are not able to read their writing on their monuments as a consequence.
What does this have to do with Vista ... simply Linux and Apple leave us alone !
Posted by Neil | April 28, 2007 12:38 AM
Neil, I agree that there shouldn't be so much OS bashing on this forum. But it is not inconsistent for people to point out the pros and cons of Windows, Linux, and OS X here. After all, these OSes share the same IT space and as I've posted elsewhere, the fates of all three principal platforms are intimately connected. That's why it is appropriate to discuss these things on a Microsoft-specific blog such as Microsoft Watch.
In this light, it's okay for people to post testimony about Windows, Linux, and OS X. You may perceive some of these posts as "mud-slinging," but that's just your perception.
"What I don't like are their tactics for one, and the reason why they do it !" You cannot know what their intentions are; your passion is driving your perception and causing you to jump to conclusions. Moreover, you don't know their full stories or what their circumstances are.
"...they have not even seen it or used it how do they know for sure that what they are "told" is correct !" Neil, this isn't a court of law--"hearsay" evidence is permissable. I've heard similar things on the Windows side, too, but I don't get upset by it.
Posted by Richard | April 28, 2007 9:00 AM
Why haven't they decided what this "Longhorn Server" is officially going to be called? Why wouldn't they just call it "Vista Server"?
Posted by Lawrence D'Oliveiro | April 30, 2007 1:58 AM
I Ordered Beta 3 standard & Enterprise 32/64.Recieved them with DHL after numerous emails. Added onto Microsoft Tech Tour Bundle w/Ultimate & its HEADIE Powerful.
Use QUICKTIME Player for streaming & all media, theres no MS media included or available. UPDATE free. Its NT6 xp appearance, well its still all functions of vista, yet IE7 is special for 64bit. IE7^64.
HOWEVER SP DOES NOT STAND FOR SERVICE PACK AT ALL, IT IS EXPLAINED IN HELP WELCOME CENTER THAT SP STANDS FOR SECURITY PACK ~.123, NOTHING MORE. So statements from posters whom have correct idea with NT5=xp, NT6 = vista/'8, yet sp1 is NOT anytype of service pack at all, not even little bit, its LAST Minute security pack for server 2008.
PPS, THIS MACHINE 690 CHIPSET, WILL PLAY 3 GB GAMES NO PROBLEM, W. FIRE GL V3100 GAMECARD FOR28$.
Signed:PHYSICIAN THOMAS STEWART VON DRASHEK M.D.
Posted by THOMAS STEWART VON DRASHEK | August 25, 2007 1:34 PM
Deseo que me regalen en Windows Vista Orinal y Felicideadexs
Posted by Alexander Baquiax | August 26, 2007 10:39 AM
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