Viridian Delay Foreshadows What About Longhorn Server?

Joe Wilcox Today's "Viridian" delivery reset raises questions about when Microsoft will really release Windows Server "Longhorn," with later looking more likely than sooner.

In a blog post this morning, Mike Neil, general manager of Microsoft's virtualization strategy, broke the news: "The public beta of Windows Server virtualization will ship in the second half of 2007, not in the first half as previously disclosed."

Additionally: "The final version of Virtual Server 2005 R2 Service Pack 1 now will be available in Q2, not Q1 as previously stated." Whoa, Nelly. He recommended that customers looking for the service pack to download a release candidate available later this month.

Meanwhile, the question is: What about Windows Server Longhorn? Last week, Microsoft released a new CTP (Community Technology Preview) of Longhorn Server, presumably ahead of Beta 3. Microsoft released Longhorn Server Beta 2 during last year's WinHEC. Last week's CTP would be the right timing for Beta 3's release during next month's WinHEC.

Neil wrote that "beta 3 will be this half," which gives Microsoft until the end of June to deliver. He also affirmed that release to manufacturing would be "in the second half."

Neil's announcement is an excellent example of how Microsoft now uses blogs to spin potentially bad news. Microsoft doesn't make a change like this without telling somebody—customers, testers or partners, at the least. A product delay is sure to leak out and raise all kinds of nasty questions.

Before Microsoft's public relations push through blogs, the leak would have put the company in reactive mode. This kind of situation happened several times during Windows Vista's development, when leaks raised all kinds of speculative stories and blog posts about when the operating system would ship or what features would or would not make the finished product.

Today's blog post puts Microsoft in proactive mode, taking charge of the potentially bad news and raising assurance Longhorn Server will make its date. Many news stories and blog posts will report the unchanged delivery schedule, likely diminishing the otherwise wild speculation about a delay.

But I'm not writing a news story, but a news analysis.

"Today we're also updating the delivery schedule for the service pack of Virtual Server 2005 R2. It'll be available later this quarter," Neil also wrote.

Essentially, Microsoft has delayed three virtualization products or updates, all closely aligned with Windows Server. As I explained in November, Windows Server is like the nucleus around which several other products revolve. It's the major reason why Microsoft has stated Longhorn Server and Windows Vista Service Pack 1 would release around the same time.

I don't share Neil's optimism about Longhorn Server's delivery, because we've heard this talk before. Windows Server 2003 had four different ship dates before its release. In summer 2004, Microsoft publicly promised that Windows Vista would be widely available by holiday 2006. Instead, Microsoft skirted by with limited availability.

Microsoft really disclosed the Windows Vista delay in stages, starting with failed delivery of the November 2005 CTP and ending with the actual March 2006 announcement. The delay of three virtualization products—all closely aligned to Windows Server—is too eerily familiar.

The "when" is a big deal. Under the "Big Bang Theory," many IT organizations are holding off major upgrades until the release of Longhorn Server and Vista Service Pack 1, after which would come a rush of desktop, server and network upgrades. Microsoft could release Longhorn Server as late as Dec. 31 and claim it met the date. But effectively, any release that is to manufacturing isn't to customers. Longhorn Server's customer availability, which is looking more like 2009 than 2008, could have a huge impact on when the next big round of server and desktop upgrades begin.

I've been wrong before. Back in 2003, when Vista looked like a 2004 and no later than 2005 release, I publicly predicted 2006. Darn, if even 2006 was overly optimistic.

Related Posts:

• Longhorn Server Approaches Beta 3, Microsoft Watch, April 5, 2007
• Vista Virtualization Goes Back to the Future, Microsoft Watch, April 2, 2007
• Virtual PC and the Value of Free, Microsoft Watch, Feb. 20, 2007
• VMware Strikes Back, Microsoft Watch, Feb. 26, 2007
• Windows Server Takes the Lead, Microsoft Watch, Nov. 16, 2006