What About the 'Big Bang'?

Some analysts had speculated that Windows Server 2008 would cause a "Big Bang" of infrastructure upgrades. A new CDW report suggests that many businesses—small, medium or large—won't rush out Vista with Windows Server 2008 deployments. But on deeper analysis, the CDW's survey data really suggests modest Windows Server 2008 deployments—and coordinated with Windows Vista.

The report, released earlier this week, is based on a survey of 772 IT decision makers about their Windows Server 2008 migration plans. Caveat: CDW conducted the survey the first week of November, which makes the data almost four months old. At the time, Microsoft hadn't firmly committed to a Windows Vista Service Pack 1 release date.

According to the report's findings, 66 percent of respondents said there is no link between their Windows Server 2008 and Windows Vista deployment plans, contrary to earlier analyst speculation about the "Big Bang." These kind of results would be yet another blow to Vista, which just can't seem to get a break from enterprises.

Late last year, Gartner indicated that Vista deployments were running a year behind enterprise plans just prior to the Nov. 30, 2006 business launch. Application incompatibility problems and heftier hardware requirements are major reasons for Vista deployment delays.

But a deeper look at CDW's survey data reveals that maybe Vista and Windows Server 2008 deployments won't be so separate. Only 18 percent of businesses have started Windows 2008 deployments or have some kind of plan in place. The number is statistically equivalent to the percentage of businesses that either will coordinate deployments or deploy Windows Server 2008 first (19 percent).

The distinction is important: The largest number of respondents either plan to upgrade someday (45 percent) or not at all (37 percent). There appears to be some correlation between those businesses with Windows Server 2008 plans in place and those coordinating Windows Vista deployments (34 percent, according to CDW). For those businesses actually deploying Windows Server 2008 right away, Windows Vista is on their event horizon.

CDW's report findings state Windows Server 2008 upgrades very positively: "Sixty-three percent of IT decision makers indicate that their organization will upgrade to Windows Server 2008." Considering that only 18 percent of respondents have deployed or plan to deploy the software, the survey really shows that 82 percent of IT decision makers indicate that their organizations will either someday upgrade to Windows Server 2008 or not at all.

The survey data raises a question about Windows Server 2008 deployments: Are negative Vista perception problems bleeding over to Microsoft server software? IT decision-maker concerns about Windows Server 2008 mirror some of the common deployment problems associated with Windows Vista. IT decision makers' top-three concerns: Bugs, application compatibility and hardware compatibility. I'd say that there are bleed-over perception problems.

Perhaps it's no coincidence—and this is a good finding for Microsoft—that the percentage of IT decision makers familiar with Windows Server 2008 is about the same number deploying or planning to deploy the software. Familiarity is a strong selling point. That said, 72 percent of survey respondents were unfamiliar with Windows Server 2008 and 86 percent of IT decision makers weren't currently evaluating the software.

CDW's survey data also bodes well for Microsoft's Hyper-V virtualization technology that, while part of Windows Server 2008, won't ship until at least the third quarter. Virtualization is the fourth most popular benefit that IT decision makers see in Windows Server 2008.

Nine percent of respondents plan to deploy virtualization technologies within 12 months and another 18 percent are evaluating virtualization. Thirty-five percent of businesses have already deployed virtualization technologies.

CDW called out several trends from the survey, with one standing out from the rest: "The complexity of the application/infrastructure within most organizations is a growing obstacle to all new software adoption."

It's an area where all software developers should make improvements.