Vista Anti-piracy Effort Will Drive People to Linux?
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Oh, the wicked 2007 predictions people make, just because it's the end of the year. |
The good folks over at IDC released their "Top 10 Predictions for Worldwide System Infrastructure Software, 2007." Overall, it's a good list, although I don't buy No. 9.
IDC predicts, "Microsoft's client operating system anti-piracy efforts will backfire. Microsoft's anti-piracy campaign will drive customers toward Linux."
Bwhahahaha. Somebody has been tipping back too much holiday eggnog. The anti-piracy campaign is biggest on the desktop--so, what? IDC suggests that Linux is finally going to gain desktop traction because of Windows product activation? Oh, the tears, I'm laughing so hard.
More likely, new anti-piracy mechanisms will drive customers to Windows XP, which has less stringent piracy checks. Microsoft's nightmare situation is that customers will stick with Windows XP and consume more Web-based products or services as means of extending operating system capabilities without upgrading.
Certainly, lots of people have no love for product activation and Genuine Advantage validation. Some comments on last week's Vista activation crack post express the sentiments:
- Dimitry: "There are many software producers that protect their software in a very light way (a serial number) and many that don't protect at all (Lotus Notes and Domino for instance). So I wouldn't blame pirates for what Microsoft does to protect their products. It's only M$ who is to blame, IMHO."
- Mike: "Boy, I am so glad that Apple trusts its users and doesn't follow Microsoft's scheme of everyone is a crook until proven otherwise."
- Art: "If MSFT would price the software for individual users at a more reasonable price, there would be less desire to crack the product. With Vista, they have almost priced it out of the range of the average home user, then you add in office standard and you have blown your annual software budget for two years."
I won't make excuses for Microsoft's approach to fighting piracy. What paying customer wants to feel like a criminal? Volume Activation 2.0, which is new with Windows Vista, is going to put strains on IT organizations. If mobile employees--such as work-at-homers or salespeople--don't reactivate within every 180 days, the Windows Vista off switch is going to flip on.
Most IT managers I talk to say the same thing: They make operating system purchases based on applications. If Linux had the appropriate applications--sorry, but that means Microsoft Office, for starters--maybe the onerous anti-piracy tools would drive away some customers from Vista. But in the absence of supporting applications, I don't see any serious exodus to Linux.
Maybe IDC will get nine out of 10 predictions right, which would still be a good showing.
Speaking of anti-piracy, Microsoft is treating Christmas like Halloween. The company has released a Vista update that's supposed to knock out "Frankenbuild."
Comments (40)
I don't think it will push anyone to Linux who wouldn't already be thinking that in the first place. MS is already dealing with piracy and Vista isn't even available to the masses.
It just means paying customer will have their privacy constantly violated with the check in features and the additional cost and support for the problems Activation will cost. Meanwhile the pirates go along their merry way.
In my opinion MS benefits from piracy from widespread use of their products and the assumed revenue loss is passed on to the paying customer. Its win win for MS.
Posted by Scott Freeman | December 14, 2006 7:08 PM
This whole Volume Activation/WGA thing is going to blow up in MS' face. They are going to get dragged into court with a class action suit one way or another. I don't see how they are going to avoid it. I don't know the details, but I smell one brewing.
Then, there's the corporate side. If I was in charge of what operating system is in use (and I used to be!), I would be avoiding Vista. My personal experience with getting field people to connect to the mail server on their laptops already has the sirens going off for me.
And then there's going to be poisoning of the well. I fully expect somebody to start the project of posting ranges of key codes that may, or may not be correct. Heck, I can see a virtual machine set up that does nothing but change keys, tries to validate, and then posts the validated keys -- openly -- just to force MS to kill those keys. Let's be realistic. This wouldn't take an installation of Vista to do. Crack the traffic between the activating computer and Microsoft, and you could have a Windows 98 PC checking keys. Kill enough keys, and MS gets major egg on it's face.
And the people that had those valid keys that aren't valid any more? Screwed.
MS is trying to live in the past. Charge ridiculous amounts of money for something that is incredibly locked down. Make Ultimate $99, and I'm sold. Hell, I might even bite at $199. Or give me a 5 user license for $299. The best situation I've seen is the MSDN subscription, personally. And that's still not cheap.
Posted by Bryan Price | December 14, 2006 10:36 PM
Actually I'm running linux right now because of all the activation crap, and the fact I dont want to spend 325 quid on a full featured OS (oh and UAC is the worst thing ever). Vista isnt even all that good for 5 years worth of development. I decided to try Linux out, and am typing this message from it right now, it's very impressive, and the only thing I cant do in it, is play games, so those comments are certainly true for me!
Posted by Jodey Grist | December 15, 2006 2:20 AM
Me, too, on running Linux now. I tried a couple of the betas of Vista along the way, could see no real advantage to spending money needlessly for another MS titanic.
Ubuntu has been pretty easy to learn. My version looks nothing like the stock install, WINE works fairly well, Quake and UT 2004 work fine, but unfortunately, Macromedia and Linux just don't mix well at this point. Nor do the EA Battlefield series of games. :(
Have to keep XP around for those, but for anything else.... linux.
The penguin needs no activation.
Posted by KC | December 15, 2006 9:33 AM
It may not result in increased Linux use, but it is true that Windows is priced out of range for most home users. It will come with new PCs and that will probably be the main driver for home adoption.
Posted by Chad | December 15, 2006 9:56 AM
I do not change my Kalango for nothing. E on the installation of programs uses apt-get, it low, installs and configures everything pra you. Beyond that the Kalango is very pretty.
Posted by Italo | December 15, 2006 10:38 AM
It's funny because this is exactly what happened to me, no matter how hard the editor laughs. I used to laugh at Linux too... but as soon as Microsoft came out with its Genuine initiative last year, I started looking for alternatives for my PC. The only valid one has been Linux, so I've been running Ubuntu Linux exclusively for a year. There's so much top-notch free software at my fingertip now. I feel so liberated from my past Windows-addiction and would like to thanks Microsoft for pointing me in the right direction!
Concerning gaming, it seems like the good games these days have Xbox 360 exclusivity, so why bother with Windows anymore? Just run Linux and buy a Xbox with the money you saved. Best of both worlds, thanks again to MS.
Posted by MB | December 15, 2006 1:57 PM
The author couldn’t be more wrong. The prediction that MS Anti Piracy effort will drive customers to Linux is the only certainty in the top ten list. The effort will drive users to other operating systems as well. It is inevitable consequence of their actions.
Consider that MS’ whole reason for enacting these procedures is that it lusts to have all unlicensed users forced into coughing up the bucks for its product. Of course that is something that will never happen. Some will pay the fare (which has become increasingly steep in recent years) but significant numbers will certainly not. Those who won’t (or can’t) shell out the dough will eventually be faced with one of two choices, give up computing or go to another operating system.
So to the degree that MS is successful in eliminating piracy an unwanted byproduct of that effort will be the creation of a pool of potential customers for its competition.
Linux is certain to get a good share of these disenfranchised users.
Scott’s posted comment that MS has benefited from piracy is right on target but I fail to see the logic of his conclusion. If MS got to where it is today with piracy playing a large role in the wide distributed of its OS and if it didn’t really suffer financially because it just passed on the “lost” revenues to its paying customers, how is jacking the prices AND curtailing piracy going to benefit it now?
Operating systems are like crack, if you can hook the user chances are he’ll keep coming back for more. So why do something to wake people up to the fact that there are other dealers down the street?
God knows MS has plenty of other products to hawk. Why not make it easy to keep customers coming round instead of trying to hold them up before they get in the door.
I agree with the author on one point, that MS Office is the real anchor holding users to its products, but I think he fails to take into account that increasingly the hold that MsOffice has on users is becoming more a function of perception than of reality.
There is currently no shortage of Office alternatives available which have all the features that would be required by a sizable majority of the overall PC user population. The set of users who are tied to Office due to features unavailable elsewhere is relatively small in comparison. So it is bound to be true that there are a significant number of cases where it is inertia vs a lack of options that is keeping a particular customer in the MS fold.
Why give them any incentive to look elsewhere?
On top of that with MS being increasingly pressured into supporting open file format standards the hold that Office currently has on users can only continue to erode from what it is today.
The real matter in question is not if Microsoft’s new piracy measures will push users to other platforms (if they are effective that consequence is unavoidable) but rather the extent of the slide and how quickly it is manifested.
Posted by Boris Badinoff | December 15, 2006 2:25 PM
The author of this article is as laughable as he claims the IDC list is.
People ARE getting tired of being treated like criminals, when all they are doing is trying to buy a legitimate OS.
Granted, perhaps not a LOT of people will got to Linux, but certainly more will convert than would have otherwise, thanks to MicroShaft and their onerous, heavy-handed tactics.
Posted by Gog | December 15, 2006 4:23 PM
Chalk up another vote for trying Linux. I had never tried Linux before all the "one hardware change then buy a new copy o Vista" thing came to light. Then they said they "listened to customers" and it wasn't going to be a "feature" anymore. Then came the news that they weren't going to harass retail Vista customers, but they were still harassing OEM Vista purchasers for more than one hardware change. This really amounts to attacking PC enthusiasts (who always buy OEM) and honest poor people. (who buy OEM cause it's cheap.) I finally decided that I had had enough of MS nonsense and decided to give Linux a go. I am surprised by how much my skill transfers to Linux and I look forward to helping others use it. There are just SO many versions of Linux out there, it's a little daunting to choose. I have even seen a version that can boot and run from a single optical disk! So, all the new discovery has been fun. (Thanks for that MS)
It's sorta like GWB. I never paid much attention to politics cause things seemed to run well here in the U.S. Then Georgy happened, and the ensuing disaster made me pay more attention to politics. Nothing like a dysfunctional catastrophe to make people sit up and take notice. Necessity might be the mother of invention, but catastrophe is the father of change. Ask the 109th Congress.
When the false positives start shutting down Vista PCs left and right with the OSs built in killswitch, I predict you will see much more Linux adoption than you, I, or Microsoft thought possible.
Who knew that MS would finally try to destroy it's own monopoly? Sure didn't see that one comin'.
Posted by Raiden | December 15, 2006 5:32 PM
Anyone wonder if maybe the author should have a hyphenated last name, something like "Wilcox-Ucker" ? Because it sounds like he's got Steve Ballmer's dick in his mouth while he's typing all this drivel. Most small/medium businesses can't afford the hardware, licensing, and overhead of upgrading to Vista, and many of those will seriously consider Linux or Mac OS when the time is right. Especially any small business with <25 PCs who can't afford to have their machines shutting off on them randomly just because they had to add or replace some failed hardware and M$ decides to cripple the OS. MS Office?? who cares?? OpenOffice/StarOffice is good enough for 95% of users, and the other 5% who really need it can afford to pay for MS Office. When more copies of Vista get installed after RTM next year, the ensuing horror stories will just encourage more folks to seek alternatives. XP will hang around long enough for anyone who wants to execute a smooth & orderly migration to Linux or Mac OS.
Posted by Happy Penguin | December 16, 2006 11:14 AM
Linux on the desktop?
Maybe not immediately for any other private users than the techie ones like us, reading and answering this thread, but what about the business users?
If I had a medium to large organisation, and I was running windows XP - and I knew (or suspected) that Microsoft was going to discontinue XP sooner than later to push ppl to Vista ... Then I would propably think about how far Linux had gotten on the desktop. How is openoffice doing ... where is it going, and how does it tie into the new office document format?
What is the REAL needs of my users and where is the gap in software running on linux. And would I maybe need to support a 5% user base on Vista or an old XP sp2 to continue the operation of my business?
IMO this is the time to do that. I havent been running any flavours of unix for many years, and I don't particularly long for it either. So I don't have any real up-to-date knowledge of linux.
But I would be surprised if such a study didnt show that a migration to linux wasnt feasible from a technical, economical and productivity POV, in some of the cases.
In another article you mention the IROI / ROI / TCO argument, where changing to something new can be a good thing and organisations shouldnt be afraid to try such a thing.
I think that thinking about switching desktops to Linux should be considered a change that applies that train of thought.
Normally I argue on the side of Microsofts products but when it comes to Vista I just can see the point. I think MS dropped the ball on Vista. 5 years and we get something that looks like the XP SP2 I'm running. I can't think of one Vista user oriented feature that I havent got through a piece of shareware or freeware. I have been running Vista RTM on my second laptop since I got it off my MSDN subscription 17th November, and besides the battery lasting a little longer I just dont understand what they spend 5 years doing!?!?!?
Now look at Sharepoint 2007, WWF, WCF ... those are cool products / technologies that really have the potential to move the market (IMO) and contain a lot of great new possibilities! I cant wait to get my hands on a project where I can work with them. In contrast, Vista seems like a pretty lame duck to me ...
Posted by Lars | December 16, 2006 8:36 PM
Lars, in reality it took abt 3 years considering they had to halt development for abt 1 year for xp sp2 and another 1 year for the longhorn reset ( they had to start from scrath using windows sever 2003 code base instead of xp coed base)
Posted by nadz | December 17, 2006 3:35 PM
"Anyone wonder if maybe the author should have a hyphenated last name, something like "Wilcox-Ucker" ? Because it sounds like he's got Steve Ballmer's dick in his mouth while he's typing all this drivel."
He must have really long arms! (Steve Ballmer is not a small man.)
Posted by Wilcox-Ucker | December 17, 2006 9:51 PM
Check this:
http://www.miraesoft.com/karel/2006/12/14/idc-microsoft-anti-piracy-efforts-will-backfire/
Posted by Karel | December 18, 2006 5:56 AM
Add another Windows user who installed Linux for the first time this year. I thought there is just no way I'm shelling out all that money for Vista. Still haven't moved to XP as didn't see that that was worth it either. Now dual booting W2K and Suse and can see moving completely to Suse with Windows running as a guest in either Parallels or VMWare.
Posted by Alan | December 22, 2006 10:12 AM
WGA was the straw that broke the camel's back for me. Come Jan. first I'll have been using Linspire Linux one year...
I left due to the broken promises of Microsoft dealing with security,and other reasons.
I'd used Windows since it's start and moved to 95,98 and XP. With XP the BSOD was finally fixed, but all the other problems were not.
And then WGA and DRM rear their ugly heads.
I saw the writing on the wall and I didn't like it
one bit.
I think Vista,it's lock-down, over-pricing,DRM and other "features" will indeed come back to bite Microsoft in the foot.
Posted by Limerat | December 22, 2006 4:31 PM
>If Linux had the appropriate applications--sorry, but that means Microsoft Office, for starters--maybe the onerous anti-piracy tools would drive away some customers from Vista.
Joe, Linux has quite good alternatives to Microsoft Office. KOffice is a standard across many Linux distributions. Gnome Application Suite is also a great Office package. But you should definitely try OpenOffice. You can give it a shot under Windows right out-of the box. http://www.openoffice.org
To be collaborative products, the OpenOffice programs really constitute appropriate applications.
Posted by Fabio Correa | December 23, 2006 9:34 PM
That's just what's going to happen. It happened to me and a lot of people/companies when BSA campaigns started in Estonia.
Windows+MSOffice got replaced with Windows+OpenOffice or Linux+OpenOffice.
Vista is just step two in that process that leads finally to wide Open Source adoption in businesses, brings ISV's to the play and Desktop Linux becomes a real alternative to all users.
Posted by Aga tapselt nii on | December 27, 2006 9:32 AM
*When the false positives start shutting down Vista PCs left and right with the OSs built in killswitch, I predict you will see much more Linux adoption than you, I, or Microsoft thought possible.*
--
Just imagine a virus/worm that crawls around the Internet activating vurnable Vista kills.
I can...
Posted by ma | December 27, 2006 9:39 AM
I am another Linux convert- two years now. As a private developer, I have to keep all of my machines in sync, and must have the same OS on my laptop for traveling, plus I have two desktop development machines (in two different locations). I used to upgrade each time a new MS OS came out; but now with the mounting costs to keep multiple licenses of the MS OS's, I finally pulled the plug on future MS migrations, bailed out to FC5, and haven't looked back. This is happening in my client base as well. Even the last laptops that had XP preloaded are now dual boot FC5/XP, and infrequent boots into MS only occurs when I have to run specific software written for Win32.
I am not MS-phobic- their software is very good for what it does, and I will probably end up with Vista once it comes pre-bundled on a new laptop. I won't, however, be shelling out $700.00 to upgrade my current systems to Home Premium editions.
Posted by Ex-Winner | December 27, 2006 12:21 PM
Im currently using Slackware 11 (Linux) and
have been using Linux for I dont know how long,
but its been years.
All I can say is Microsoft OS's dont come anywhere
near the 5 or 6 Linux OS's that I have used.
I had XP on another partition and the only reason
I had that there was so that I could use Wine from
Slackware to run a particular program. Then I
figured out a way to run it without XP, so I
formatted XP and got it the hell out of my world!
Wine is getting better and better(hiccup).
Who wants to pay that much cash for something
that is not as stable as Linux, and is prone to
attacks from every wanna be programmer that wants a challenge now and in the future.
Another thing that Id like to add, is that out of
all of the Linux OS's that I have installed, I have never had to install a driver for my
hardware and I mean *never*.
Linux does it for you, and doesnt even brag
about it.When installing windows its like a never ending process.
I might add that Open Office and KOffice crap all
over Microsoft Office.
Posted by Phill | December 29, 2006 3:17 AM
V iruses
I ntruders
S pyware
T rojans and
A dware
Posted by Phill | December 29, 2006 4:48 AM
I just want apps that I can use without these damm %$^&#^&*I^RYFi5ye4&%W^Y$EUE^$*& long list of numbers and letters. What moron gets paid to come up with such crap. I bought the PC and apps to get work done and before anything I need to search for a bunch of numbers and letters. It not just MS it is all the apps vendors - they all have a different way of ^%#$^*RI&E$^&#$YU^TR^&E$WY%EU^J with the customer. Well WTF I am done with wasting my time enterings numbers/letters in litle %&$^#&^#E&U^$ boxes.
I bought a new PC with everything loaded - ready to get some work done - and I what do I get entering more %&$@#&$^UITUY%#^E$UJYT%ER&C%U^R&UERTI&$%ER numbers/letters, then log on to their web site and fill in more boxes personal info and my shoe size.
So let me see I real customer buys their product and get this crap treatment.
Well they sure as hell made me go out and get Linux, yes I bought it retail and installed it over all the crap that came with the PC. I took a about a hour or so to get it installed, it impressed me pop in the dvd and the install does it none of this active code crap, it was well worth the effort. If I knew it would have been that easy I would have moved to linux earlier. So yes, these damm jumping through hoops looking for numbers/letters to get the app to work changed me. I maybe only one customer but for me I could get get some work done. I am so impressed with linux it is easy to use, and so much software
Posted by convert | December 31, 2006 8:55 PM
Yes, the author couldn't be more wrong. I've always used Microsoft products, and they got bloated, pointless and paranoid. MS is forgetting that piracy was what made windows/office/Direct X the standards for personal computing.
Anyway, after sick and tired of using XP with all those patches/antivirus/firewall/anti-adware/anti-spyware and previewing vista (legitimate RC2 download from Microsoft site) I was way to disapointed to ever consider to pay any money for Windows Vista.
I've switched to Linux (Ubuntu 6.10) a couple of months ago, and I'm not going back. Almost too good to be true, the quality and support of open-source software. Instalation is even easier than windows. OpenOffice 2.1 is great, with very good MS office file compatibility, and it already features the "open document" standard, that Microsoft sooner or later will have to adopt. It starts faster, it has much better memory management, is very stable and no virus or spyware whatever.
So vista is actually making people to try Linux, and most will do the switch. I did. Of course most people will stil go with vista because they don't know any better, such is MS monopoly with OEM's. But definetly vista is making linux desktop share to rise...
Posted by rev_b | January 1, 2007 11:01 PM
I bought all ms products encluding windows xp
and was satusfied with all their product till ms got paranoid. left you feeling like a crook.I felt like I was in a store looking at various items and the owner kept following me around like I was a shoplifter.
thank to open source
happy new year
ps I am 85 years old
and I dont want the hassle of activation, and I dont like rebates
Posted by ken | January 3, 2007 8:07 AM
I bought all ms products encluding windows xp
and was satusfied with all their product till ms got paranoid. left you feeling like a crook.I felt like I was in a store looking at various items and the owner kept following me around like I was a shoplifter.
thank to open source
happy new year
ps I am 85 years old
and I dont want the hassle of activation, and I dont like rebates
Posted by ken | January 3, 2007 8:09 AM
And me to, I think that the author is completely wrong. I have been using Linux in dual boot with Windows for a couple of years now at home. Recently I bought a new PC to do some real video editing. Look at the price tag of Vista + Adobe Premiere. I went for a PC without OS. Saved me that money and used it for a decent 1680 x 1050 resolution monitor instead. I can do all what I need with Linux and Cinelera.
Were the author is wrong is that he looks at it from his perspective as a MS shop consultant. The people that hire him are MS shops. Of course they use some other proprietary apps that only run on MS, since that is their criterium: it should run on MS. But that is not a relevant sample of the population. Certainly for home users Linux offers a whole set of free applications (both as in free beer and as in free speech). So the applications argument is less and less true. In my experience it is the other way around. If I need some functionality with a few clicks I can install the new apps I need from the repository. That is not so easy on MS. There you have to hunt for the apps, sometimes even going to a purchasing procedure (the hassle is sometimes worse then the bucks you have to shell out). And even if you really need a specific app, there IS a good chance that you CAN run it on Linux (the MS Office example from the author shows for it) via Wine, Cedega or Crossover Office.
The people most affected by activation crap (people that change HW often) are people that know something about computers. Exactly these people will already have heard about Linux and will feel comfortable enough to give it a try to install. And with the different Live CDs available today, trying out Linux risk free is so easy,... And on top of that also really convincing!
So yes, I do think a number of users will be driven to Linux. Not the big uninformed masses of casual users, maybe. Not those people that don't want to spend any time on learning something new. But certainly a high number of PC hobbyists and companies that are a bit less conservative.
Ciao,
Sitor
Posted by Sitor | January 11, 2007 4:27 AM
The best two Linux OS I think are ---
SimplyMephis 6.0 and PCLinuxOS 0.93a
Both will have upgrade version soon. So look for them and install on your systems.
I switch from Windows XP to Linux over one year now.
I can do the same things I did in Windows as I can do in Linux.
So I don't use Windows no more. Don't need Windows, Linux is better, faster and safer.
My desktop & laptop have linux install, Windows free.
Don't miss Windows at all. Because of freeze ups, force upgrades, blue screen of Death, error windows, scan for virus, defrag, and mystery hipcups. I switch to Linux to get away from Windows junkyard.
Posted by Kevin Wiese | February 4, 2007 11:06 AM
You seem an incredible fool sir. An incredible fool indeed. Keep drinking the Kool-Aid bud.
Posted by Sara Kellog | February 8, 2007 3:48 PM
What's Stopping Desktop Linux Adoption?
After running a dual boot W2K / Suse 10.2 for a month or so, I'd like to make the switch in a minute. . . Everything runs faster, lot's of cool utilities, etc. . .
But. . . even though I already use Open Office, Firefox (couldn't get along without it since I'm a web developer) and am in the process of going from Pegasus to Thunderbird for Email, Linux still doesn't run the software I earn my living with: Dreamweaver, Fireworks, Photoshop and a half a dozen other specialized Graphic and photo aps where there is no Linux equivalent. (PLEASE, don't anyone try to tell me Gimp is equivalent to Photoshop, it only shows your ignorance. And don't try to tell me that these Windows aps will run OK on Wine!)
(The Mac OSX running on Intel is, perhaps, close enough to Linux on Intel that porting some major applications to Linux is no longer quite as prohibititive a process for people like Adobe - hope so.)
We haven't even mentionned some applications that many small businesses in particular couldn't live without such as networked contact management software like Goldmine or ACT! or multi-user accounting systems. (Ever try to run QuickBooks Multi-user on Linux?)
How Microsoft Won the Desktop and Why Linux Really Isn't Ready to Take Over
Do any of you remember the DOS "Look and Feel" application interface wars? That was about the time Windows came into being and in one move Microsoft with 3.X shut-down what could have been a very ugly era for desktop computing by consolidating the UI. Windows wasn't very good compared to the Mac, but it was good enough to stop the UI nonsense - remember "good enough" is all you have to be to come out on top if you're the first to approach and solve a problem.
Now, Linux needs to do some consolidation if it is to ever tap into the mainstream of desktop computing. Most people simply don't have the time to try to sort it all out. For them, computing is not a hobby choice, it's a business tool.
As long as Linux comes in 20 different varieties and continues to make choices difficult, adoption will be limited to those of us who are "Rebels Without a Need" or small businesses where the only applications used are browsing, email and something like Open Office.
Linux Developers
If you really want to push the Linux desktop then STOP making 10 versions of utilities or helper applications which essentially do the same thing. Concentrate on some MAJOR applications, or, work with MAJOR publishers to get applications ported to Linux. (Yah, I guess that wouldn't be as much fun for self-indulgent programers - It's hard work and real business.)
Yes, Linux is a superior OS and enjoy it if it can fulfill your needs! But, it's not going to be enough for most businesses and many individuals -- Not yet, and maybe never.
Posted by Bill Soxs | February 26, 2007 1:42 AM
I have Windows XP Home edition; it was forced on my laptop...but i swear not to spend even a penny for Vista. From all reviews i have read; i don't see any point in that upgrade - I can get all that eyecandy with windows blinds if i want it in first place.
Or, better install Fedora core 6 edition and try beryl over it. I use Linux for all my desktop purposes and am proud to say no issues observed :):):)
Posted by sajith | March 8, 2007 9:04 AM
your exactly right OP I couldnt install any of the 98se updates for my kids pc ..it made not functional..I have just about have us all in the house switched over to OpeSuSe ..cya microsoft and never going back.
Posted by scot | April 4, 2007 5:39 PM
The article's premise is essentially correct. It would take more than "one thing" to topple Microsoft. Problem is, there are "many" things.
In my HP forum, I can't begin to tell you the VOLUMES of posts I read from people desperately trying to dump Vista to go back to XP. I assume this is true in other manufacturer forums. The one thing that will topple Microsoft is Microsoft itself. The alienation goes beyond home users who have convinced Dell, HP, and CDW (that I've seen so far ... there may be more companies) to "backstep" from Vista to give XP and Linux options. Effective October last year, IBM Germany cancelled its contract with Microsoft and now uses Linux on their desktops. And if the German experiment is successful, IBM global may follow suit.
I don't know about corporate users ... nor do I know how other home users feel ... but this is my message to Microsoft.
I use Windows XP Home exclusively for video capturing, editing, and DVD work. It is the only reason I upgraded to XP ... to escape the 4GB barrier of FAT32. But Windows XP Home only occupies a partition on my current hard drive. The other partition is running Win98SE. And outside of video work, I do everything else on my 98SE partition (like making this post right now). Also, just in case of computer disaster, I have a spare unopened Win98SE OEM disk still in shrink-wrap - along with all the Win98SE updates up to the point where support was pulled.
Currently, friends are doing the video work I want to do in either a Ubuntu or Mepis (Linux) environment. So, if Microsoft pulls support for XP to "force" users into a Vista corner ... or plays games with me over their WGA routine ... guess how long it would take me to format that XP partition and install a Linux distro?
FWIW, I'm currently haggling with 3 builders to find the cheapest one to build me a newer system with a triple-boot (98SE/XP/Ubuntu) scenario. Once complete, I plan to slowly ween myself off the Microsoft teet and go Linux all the way ... even if I have to cobble between more than one distro to get everything to work right.
IDG just might get 10 out of 10 right. And if they don't, it doesn't mean that #9 is an impossible dream, just premature. There are a lot of people hopping mad about how Vista works ... in the home and in the corporate setting ... and Microsoft cannot keep this status quo up forever. The immovable object WILL meet the irresistable force.
So, Microsoft, if you want to cut support for my XP version or play WGA games with me, all I can say is this:
"Go ahead ... make my day!"
Posted by J. Alec West | May 8, 2007 10:42 PM
It's true, I've switched to Ubuntu because Vista is the same as XP but more invasive and intrusive with little gain imho. I have taught most my family how to use ubuntu and they are happy with it as "non-technical" users. All my new PC's built I will take the time to teach people how to use Ubuntu and use it the same was as they do their M$ O/S. Final results to date: Me being one user has influenced over 50 people to move to Linux. I expect up to 600 by year end. As they become comfortable with Linux, they tell their friends and it spreads. A lot like how the iPod became so popular (look at how easy this is, you should do it too)
Posted by Matt | May 25, 2007 4:21 PM
Vista activation isn't going to slow down Windows in the least among the general public. Most people get and keep whatever OS is on the computer they buy, and now that's mostly Vista. They may consider a Mac if they never had a computer before and don't have anyone in the family interested in gaming (Xbox has some good games, but for some folks, console games are just never as good), but it isn't going to happen more than it ever did -- activation just isn't a big deal for most people. They do what they're asked and forget about it. Businesses are in the same position as gamers -- the programs they need to run require Windows. Finally, the activation annoyance generally isn't as big as the challenges involved with learning and maintaining any version of Linux for the average computer user. If the nightmare predictions related to DRM that were made while Vista was in beta were to start coming true, it might very well drive people to Macs, though.
Posted by RH | June 1, 2007 11:48 AM
Two months have passed since I last posted. I now have my new desktop system. But rather than do the triple boot I'd planned, I chose to do a double boot -- Windows 2000 Pro SP4 and Linux. As most people know, Windows 2000 was the first Microsoft OS to recognize the NTFS file system ... and the last Microsoft OS that didn't require online activation (and reactivation, in some cases).
In any case, my Windows partition is now firing on all thrusters and I've begun to experiment with Ubuntu and other distros. Perhaps it's because I started out in the DOS world, but I'm finding it fairly easy to navigate command-line scenarios. I'm probably having it easier than those brought up on dumbed-down GUI operating systems. But, things are proceeding in the direction I planned to go somewhat faster than I'd anticipated. And, for better or worse, I'll not be going back to the world of online activation and corporate scrutiny.
Posted by J. Alec West | July 10, 2007 9:19 AM
Bill Soxs :
What's Stopping Desktop Linux Adoption?
Bill,
Thanks for the most realistic views on this argument. Linux is great, but until there are applications ported to it business will continue to endure.
An accounting package used in Australian Small Business - MYOB - is the default standard providing payroll and tax compliance. Until that is ported no small business is able to carry without an MS OS somewere in the shop.
The publishers would need to be men of great faith to port their product. Every alteration to the tax laws in Australia requires a compliance patch to be released sometimes in as little time as a month and each year a new tax scale compliance patch has to be produced.
To reproduce this effort for an installed base of zero is more then any business can justify.
John Fergus
Posted by John Fergus | July 19, 2007 9:52 AM
why spend hundreds of dollars for vista and office when you can get better products with more versatiliy and eye candy for free? Linux all day
Posted by lninjo | January 26, 2008 3:31 AM
Microsoft is constantly harassing me about anti virus 2009.
I do not have microsoft virus protection.
I wish they would stop taking over my computer every 5 minutes.
I am 78 years old and a new user. It seems they are going to harass me until I buy their product.(NEVER)
I do not like to be called a thief
Posted by Walt | December 9, 2008 11:19 PM