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April 28, 2008 1:48 PM

Mulder and Scully Wouldn't Believe It



News Analysis. Is there some conspiracy out there trying to show how bad Vista is by ensuring that Windows XP will go on beyond June 30?

It's like somebody made over a classic sci-fi TV show into the XP-Files—with Windows XP replacing the alien abductions. The truth is out there somewhere, but not in the looneybins crap I read over the last three or four days about XP and PC manufacturers.

Over the weekend, there were several way-out-there blogs and news stories about secret "downgrade rights" back doors that will allow OEMs to defy the mighty Microsoft and continue selling Windows XP beyond June 30.

There's nothing new about downgrade rights and OEMs supporting them on new PCs. The conspiracy is fiction, somebody's fantasy proof that Vista sucks so bad OEMs will do anything to keep shipping Windows XP. Lots of businesses have exercised downgrade rights before and many will do so in the future, long after Windows Vista is largely forgotten and lingers only as a laughable memory, like Microsoft Bob.

OEMs have long had the right to ship older operating systems to enterprises with the right volume-licensing contracts in force. Businesses that have Enterprise Agreements can exercise downgrade rights at any time, and OEMs can take custom images from this licensed software and ship them on new PCs. Heck, Dell used the same licensing provision to ship Vista PCs ahead of the official OEM launch Jan. 30, 2007.

Microsoft also has long provided downgrade rights in OEM Windows versions. Windows XP Professional OEM editions can be downgraded to Windows 2000. Similarly, Windows Vista Business and Ultimate can be downgraded to Windows XP Pro. According to a Microsoft downgrade rights fact sheet (PDF), Windows XP Pro can be installed by the buyer or by "an OEM, when authorized by end user" on PCs licensed for Vista Business or Ultimate.

Businesses will exercise downgrades as a way of ensuring interoperability and management priorities; IT organizations typically standardize chunks of their organization on a single platform, which easily could be an older Windows version. For example, plenty of enterprises exercised Windows NT and 2000 downgrade rights after XP shipped. A 2003 JupiterResearch survey I fielded found that 6 percent of midsize enterprises planned new NT 4 deployments that year (the real percentage was later shown to be greater)—another 13 percent, Windows 2000. OEMs shipped some of those downgrade images on new PCs, after Windows XP shipped.

These wild conspiracy theories mistakenly presume June 30 is the end for Windows XP. Not so. System builders can ship XP until January 2009. Microsoft will continue to support the operating system long after June 30, with mainstream support until April 2009 and extended through April 2014.

Back doors and loopholes make for great anti-Vista conspiracy stories. But they don't make the stories true. Where's Scully when you need her to straighten out Mulder and the Lone Gunmen?

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Comments (30)

mikey :

OK... I'm confused.

You call these blogs "looneybin", "way-out-there" and "conspiracy theories" because they state that system builders are going to offer "downgrades" to XP from Vista. Then you state "According to a Microsoft downgrade rights fact sheet, Windows XP Pro can be installed by the buyer or by an OEM, when authorized by end user on PCs licensed for Vista Business or Ultimate."

What makes these blogs any more (or less) "looneybin" than yours?

Slow news day?

Karl :

Joe or readers,
Perhaps you can help translate Microsoftese.

I have a dual-boot desktop with a valid XP Pro license. If I were to buy a laptop with Vista Ultimate, could I use the media from my desktop to overwrite Vista? The FAQs in the link provided seem to imply that I can.

From the fact sheet,
"Q. What about product activation? When a
previously licensed version of Windows XP
Professional is used for the downgrade,
won't activation fail on the new PC?
A. When an end user is using their downgrade
rights offered under the License Terms in
Windows Vista Business and Ultimate versions
and they use both Windows XP media and a
product key that was previously activated, they
will be unable to activate on-line over the
Internet, due to the hardware confi guration
change when installing on the Vista system. In
these cases the end user will be prompted to
call the Activation Support Line and explain
their circumstances to the Customer Service
Representative. Once it is determined that the
end user has a valid Vista Business or Ultimate
license, the Customer Service Representative will
help them activate their software."

However, one reading of this Q and A is that I'd have to buy an additional XP license:

"Q. Where do customers get the CD to install
the downgrade software?
A. End users must use a legally licensed version
of the specifi ed previous version of the Windows
desktop operating system to install the
downgrade software. The downgrade software
may be from the retail, OEM/System Builder, or
volume licensing channels."

Would I need to wipe XP from my desktop before installing on the laptop or could I keep both?

"Windows Vista is largely forgotten and lingers only as a laughable memory, like Microsoft Bob."

140 million license? Trust me does not sound laughable.

Al :

@Karl:

if you have a retail version of XP you can wipe the other install & install that version on you PC. According to the terms of MSFT's EULA, OEM copies are limited to a single computer (though they permit reinstallation to that machine if you had to replace a failed part), so you're SOL & have to buy another license.

chips :

Is there some conspiracy out there trying to show how bad Vista is by ensuring that Windows XP will go on beyond June 30?
----------------------------------------------------
There's no conspiracy Joe. Its simply the publics and businesses rejection of Vi$ta, as a basically flawed and bad Operating Systems, with no improvements (in fact worse than) the previous operating system XP.

Vista is not an upgrade path for a lot of users. XP while dated now, is still very useful if you own a lot of software. The real upgrade path is not Vista, but XP with Linux dual booted. XP will continue to be patched by freeware tools, long after MS abandons support for it, just like 98SE has been.

Its a consumer reaction, not a conspiracy. Many consumers, including myself, do not want Vista. Look at the sluggish sales of new PC's since Vista came out in mature markets, Vista and the recession are the cause of that. If 10 or 11% of the market was sold new computers, with the majority of them with the MS Tax Vista preinstalled on them, why is it that only appoxmately 6 to 7% on the internet are running Vista? It should tell you that many downgraded or wiped Vista off the hard drive and installed something else.

Face it, while Vista will and is finally making money for MS, it is also, for the first time, losing market share on the desktop for MS, and hurting its prestige. Vista is a train wreck in progress.

Al :

no one has to be involved in a conspiracy to show how bad Vista is.

Vista on it's own reveals just how shoddy a product it truly is.

mikey :

@Andre

"140 million license? Trust me does not sound laughable."

Depends on how many have been downgraded or even remain installed... no?

Karl :

@Al,
Thanks! I'd known but forgotten that.

Naturally, "Murphy's Law" applies. I built the desktop, installed OEM, and am SOL. Too bad, because MS has dropped the student license price for Ultimate so much that I can get Ultimate for less than OEM XP Pro!

Davin :

Downgrading can be a fine option for certain situations.

A word of caution - when purchasing new hardware, be sure it is possible to downgrade the OS from Windows XP from Vista. I've heard of someone who tried downgrading their new laptop from Vista to WinXP, only to find that the some of the required drivers only worked on Vista!

Pinball :

@Andre Da Costa:

Relax, man! Are you so defensive of your pet OS that you have to quote someone out of context so you can attempt to show how much "smarter" you are??? Joe said, "in the future, long after Windows Vista is largely forgotten and lingers only as a laughable memory," not "Windows Vista is largely forgotten and lingers only as a laughable memory." By definition, now is not the future! Every OS will become largely forgotten, eventually (How many people remember the first industry stsndard, FORTRAN IV?).

You have your own Vista fan website. More power to you. Maybe your "slight-of-keyboard"'s are better received there. Personally, I do not bother to read it. If I cannot trust the things that you write when I can easily check them, why should I trust them when I cannot?

Davin :

"...be sure it is possible to downgrade the OS from Windows XP from Vista."

My apologies. I meant:

"...be sure it is possible to downgrade the OS from Vista to Windows XP."

"Windows Vista is largely forgotten and lingers only as a laughable memory, like Microsoft Bob."

All right, I can live with that—if Andre isn't correct about that 140MM people who will never, if in their right mind, consider buying a MSFT OS again.

Bob was an annoyance; Vista is supposed to be the central nervous system of what is otherwise a heap of metal and plastics. (Or, in the case of most of the initial OEM laptops, hard drives that are begging for Linux.)

Ralph :

These downgrade rights stories, and those like..., "hoping that Microsoft will extend XP past June 30 2008", manufacturers defying Microsoft selling XP after the cut off date make for good read and great blogging material.

The truth is Microsoft should hope that we use their products after June 30 2008. Um has anyone seen the latest reports?

52 million school kids in Brazil, will be using Linux KDE , 300,000 Ubuntu computers to be sold in Russia, or that 125,000 computers in the Russian post office will be running Linux.

Do I again need to mention that 9,000 Swiss school computers and over 20,000 Philippine school computers are going to Linux?

So while MSFT fudges the numbers to make XP downgrades look like Vista sales, and while MSFT continues to play this cat and mouse game with its customers about how XP "might" be available after June 30 nonsense.

No one has noticed the encroachment little by little by Linux. Its not some massive company or huge conspiracy deciding to take down MSFT. Its open source mandates and agencies looking for ways to save money on expensive licensing fees in this very troubling time of budget cutbacks, layoffs and growing unemployment.

Vista is but one issues that MSFT faces, it is the world economy thats suffering. Expensive high hardware requirements and expensive software upgrades are just not in the cards for a lot of departments and even people these days.

Expect to see more defections to open source just due to the economy and department budget cutbacks, whether its here in the U.S. or some third world country or some large country in Europe..it is happening right now as we have these "will XP be extended" debates.

The question is now, what is Microsoft doing about their customers moving to open source to save money on license fees and client access licenses?

Joe, that would make a excellent blog topic.

I-Man :

Now your talkin my language Joey-Boy! Nobody can explain why Microsoft has this big technology gap and when I try to show them, they scream that i'm pumping a penny stock!

Vista was suppose to be the best ever, but then it turned out to be a flop, WHY?

Well I been trying to tell you, Vista was built using VCSY's patents and then it was delayed and VCSY's patents pulled out because Microsoft was hit with an Infringement lawsuit after ignoring a cease and desist order that was sent to them in early February of 2007.
------------------------------------------------

FRIDAY, APRIL 20, 2007

Vertical Computer Systems, Inc. Files Patent Infringement Lawsuit Against Microsoft Corporation

Fort Worth, TX, April 20, 2007 (PRIME NEWSWIRE)? Vertical Computer Systems, Inc. (OTCBB: VCSY)(www.vcsy.com) announced today that on April 18, 2007, Vertical Computer Systems, Inc. filed suit for patent infringement against Microsoft Corp. in the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Texas. VCSY claims that the Microsoft .Net System infringes U.S. Patent No. 6,826,744.
http://www.vcsy.com/press/releases.php?year=2007&month=04&day=20&num=00
----------------------------------------------
And then maybe you want to look into VCSY's XML Patent which two VCSY patents act as pivot points for key elements of Microsoft's continually degraded performance toward attempting to field Bill Gates' early XML vision. The vision has yet to see the light of day, although, for years prior to the granting of VCSY's SiteFlash patent 6826744 in November 2004, Microsoft was very energetic in demonstrating what they could do with XML, but still they have shown nothing.
They teach you in detective school that if you happen upon a scene and there is someone in the batch that has motive and opportunity and means, you should look at the dates and events and see if the suspect can be aligned with those. I would say Microsoft has the largest motives (which are the power and reach the 6826744 and 7076521 patents could provide Microsoft over all other manufacturers) and the most obvious opportunities (comprised of work done from at least 2000 to late 2004/early 2005 which could have put Microsoft on top of any other manufacturers were it not for the existence of the 6826744 patent) and certainly the means (which are doubtless legendary and often emphasized by advocates of Microsoft's predatory monopolistic manners).
So, in detective school, they also teach you to make note of such actors and dig into their backgrounds to see if they are in the habit of "offing" weaker associates with which they have a similar motive and opportunity. And, sure enough, Microsoft has numerous events which tag them as someone you wouldn't want to hold your sandwich while you went to make a phone call.
Looks to me like our preliminary indictment of Microsoft has numerous clues and indications which would likely drive a judge to view them with suspicion and a desire to examine. That's Microsoft's fault. Not VCSY's.
VCSY Shareholders are simply interested in the facts and they enjoy digging up factual items regarding Microsoft and apparent connections and allowing others to read.
I happen to be here to make the facts public and entertaining.
It's up to those who read to challenge the juxtaposition of those facts with the image Microsoft itself projects.
It's also up to those desiring to provide Microsoft with an alibi or mitigating facts to rehabilitate Microsoft's suspicious image. So far, nobody wants to take us up on the technological discussion. Nobody can knock out the patent claims. Nobody has offered a smidgen of evidence Microsoft can achieve Bill Gates' XML fantasies and schemes without relying on VCSY's patents 6826744 or 7076521.

So far, Microsoft looks as "innocent" as a jealous woman with a bloody ax.
"Microsoft pales when compared to the integrated oils and producers."
Oh. I see. One other area they teach you to watch for in detective school is other actors who may be willing accomplices ready to provide a misdirection for the suspect's actions. Now, we find you, Mister Wacalaca, wanting us to turn our attention to world energy problems so we can find rascals in that particular industry.
Nice try, but, last we looked, VCSY patents related to web-platforming and web-applications... a place where Microsoft said they wanted to be from 2000 until 2005. Then, they said they didn't need to be there. Then, once VCSY sent them a cease and desist, they decided they actually did want to be on the web... but they haven't been able to do so.
If Microsoft had been in the oil industry, the patents would not apply so we would have no need to be suspicious. But, thanks for giving us a perfect analogy to describe Microsoft's place in the software industry. Since they "pale when compared" to what you deride as abusive monopolistic actions in the oil industry, you've at least given us renewed confirmation Microsoft is not to be trusted.

chips :

@ Ralph :
"These downgrade rights stories, and those like..., "hoping that Microsoft will extend XP past June 30 2008", manufacturers defying Microsoft selling XP after the cut off date make for good read and great blogging material."
----------------------------------------------------
Ok, then, keeping up with the theme here;

PC Retailers vow to install Windows XP beyond 30th June deadline

http://www.portal.itproportal.com/articles/2008/04/28/pc-retailers-vow-install-windows-xp-beyond-30th-june-deadline/

Some Quotes from the link;

"HP has already announced that it intends to sell "pre-downgraded" desktops, notebooks and workstations to its business customers until July next year, when Vista SP1 will be firmly rooted and Windows Seven will have probably gone into Beta stage.

US-manufacturer Dell has already said that it will exercise what it calls its downgrade rights when it comes to Business and Ultimate editions of Vista, both of which are geared towards corporate customers looking to downgrade to Windows XP Professional."

chips :

Dell, Lenovo to offer Windows XP beyond June 30 cutoff

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20080428-dell-lenovo-to-offer-windows-xp-beyond-june-30-cutoff.html

A quote from this link: "Although the company is taking a bit of a different approach, Lenovo has also decided to offer XP beyond Microsoft's cut-off date. Lenovo will ship Windows XP recovery CDs with "qualified" Windows Vista Business or Windows Vista Ultimate systems. The XP recovery CDs will be available to those who have purchased the Business or Ultimate systems until January 31, 2009."
----------------------------------------------------
Ok, at least for me, this seems that Vista is painful, and causing slow sales in comparison to Mac and whiteboxes for the major OEM's. Therefore, what we see is perhaps a rebellion starting with some of the major OEM's with MS plan to end XP.

Joe;

I would have to agree with others, there isn't really a conspiracy against Vista -- Microsoft has done it's best in screwing the pooch on this operating system for many of the reasons already redundantly being vented by the PC Public.

As you may know, especially by a post I commented on earlier, I am fed up with Microsoft and have bailed from the "Redmond Republic" or the "People's Republic of Microsoft."

With Mac and Ubuntu, I am totally liberated from the mainstream problems suffered by the Microsoft crowd. Good luck Microsofties!

Al :

@portuno/I-man,

you missed one very important fact when you lie:
"Vista was built using VCSY's patents and then it was delayed and VCSY's patents pulled out because Microsoft was hit with an Infringement lawsuit after ignoring a cease and desist order that was sent to them in early February of 2007."

vista released in late 2006 & was in consumer's hands in January 2007. there is no record of the delay in vista's release after Feb. 2007.

go back to your boilerroom, portuno, you pump & dump criminal. no one here (or anywhere for that matter) is buying your garbage penny stock. you'll have to keep holding the bag.

Al :

@Ralph:

wrt to Linux, as government mandates to more standard formats & open source, business will soon follow. As Al states on the MSFT message board on Yahoo (& get's laughed at by the likes of Andre), soon, all MSFT will be left to support is home consumers & software pirates.

Karl :

@Pinball:
You're the second person to make me feel ancient today! First, I'm checking in players for a high school soccer match and one of the girls tells me that I was her coach when she was four (boy, has she grown)! Then you bring up FORTRAN IV. Not only do I remember it, I checked my "dusty book" collection and I still have the manual! There are cold-war-era systems still deployed that use that language. If I recall the alternate nomenclatures correctly FORTRAN IV = FORTRAN 65 = IBM FORTRAN G compiler. FORTRAN V = FORTRAN 77 = IBM FORTRAN H compiler.

Redmond, we have a problem.

Marco :

Partners To Microsoft: Stop Bashing Vista
crn.com/software/207402573?cid=ChannelWebBreakingNews
channel partners say the software giant's recent blunt public statements about Windows Vista are putting them in difficult positions with their customers and undermining their efforts to sell the operating system.

In the past month, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer has referred to Vista as "a work in progress" and hinted that Microsoft might extend the June 30 deadline for Windows XP. Earlier this month at the RSA conference in San Francisco, David Cross, a product unit manager at Microsoft, said the User Account Control feature in Vista was designed "to annoy users."
However, now that Advantech NW is ready to start recommending Vista to its clients, Williams says Microsoft's recent comments about Vista and XP are making it difficult to get clients excited about migrating. "It couldn't come at a worse time: The supposed June 30th deadline is around the corner, Vista SP1 is here, and folks are ready to get on board," he said.
-------------------
Ha,ha,ha. Poor Andre and equals. Ballmer is making your lives (and mission) difficult.

chips :

Downgrade Rights As a Backdoor to Continue to Sell XP?

http://www.osnews.com/story/19685/Downgrade_Rights_As_a_Backdoor_to_Continue_to_Sell_XP_

Quotes from the link;

"Big PC companies like Dell and HP have found a backdoor to keep on selling XP after 30 June. And no, it doesn't involve Windows 2003. The trick employed by HP and Dell entails that they already perform the downgrade themselves, so the customer basically gets an XP machine with an already paid for Windows Vista Business/Ultimate license. This trick only works for XP Professional, as XP Home's license does not have downgrade provisions. There's a cool new term for it too: pre-upgrade machines."
--------------------------------------------------
If anything says that Vi$ta has been painful for the OEM's, its this.

@Marco:
You are right of course, while Steve Ballmer can call Vi$ta a "work in progress," Andre and the other MS Shills have to keep claiming its almost perfect.

Marco :

Hi Chips:
I was very entertained this week by setting up ubuntu 8.04 and kubuntu 8.04(KDE 4.0.3)and they were over my expectations, really they were very impressive.I think that "the problem" is worsen for MS.

chips :

Marco,
I will have to try the 8.04 or perhaps wait for the Mint release based on it.

In the meantime, check out this link;

http://news.slashdot.org/news/08/04/29/0145246.shtml

Titled: Falling Microsoft Income Endangers Yahoo Bid

Quote from the link; "The most recent quarterly results, which saw Microsoft's earnings drop by 6% from the previous year (revenue from Windows alone was down 24%), have caused the stock to dip. This has reduced the value of the cash-and-stock offer from its original $44B to something nearer $40B. Yahoo, of course, has maintained all along that the original offer was lowball. A business professor is quoted: "Whatever leverage [Microsoft] built up in the last few days could be slipping away."
--------------------------------------------------
Which is basically what I have been saying the past few days, that MS has already "lowered" it bid for Yahoo, by not increasing it, as the stock price for MS decreased in value.

But it was one of the comments that caught my eye on the above post. Comment pasting in here:

" by jkrise (535370) on Tuesday April 29, @06:08AM (#23235994) Journal
Colour me surprised, I thought with customers buying Vista AND XP; Windows revenue should've gone up actually. Even in Vista, the numerous versions out there seem specifically designed to confuse, and increase revenues.

24% decline in revenues could mean that people are either:

1. Pirating Windows XP very easily or
2. Corporate customers buying PCs with no OS, and installing Corporate licensed XP or
3. People switching over to Macs and Linux.

I think it could be a bit of all the above. In 3 years time, if Microsoft does not release a really good successor to Vista, it could be Curtains for Windows! (TM). Will it happen?"
--------------------------------------------------
I would also add in the recession as a factor to be far to MS. But a larger problem now is Vista is no longer new, and most people have had some experience with it, which is further depressing sales of new OEM computers. Therefore, expect Windows Seven to be rushed out, as it will be something new, in order for Microsoft to boost sales of Windows, at least in the short term.

Bob Maine :

My interest has been piqued by Foresight Linux being used for the Shuttle KPC. I heard a podcast that mentioned it was pretty decent for newbies/Windows users. Anybody play around with Foresight? Is it easy to add/install new apps? I have had serious trouble with Ubuntu; I don't think my PC likes it, but Mandriva and Knoppix install just fine. They just don't seem as easy to work with as I have seen Ubuntu on other's systems. Thanks!

Jonathan :

What happens to licenses of XP installed for use in a virtual environment? If MSFT pulls the plug on XP activations how can these licensees legally use XP after June 30th?

Maddog :

Chips said: The real upgrade path is not Vista, but XP with Linux dual booted.

Giving users that choice would definitely be an improvemernt. An even better one would be to dump Windows XP altogether and upgrade the entire operation to Linux (possibly several flavors to suit). That would eliminate the danger of virus infections at the very least.

JM :

I thought moving from Vista to XP was an upgrade. Did I miss something?

Vista = Glass Windows

Soap :

I thought it was decided already that vista = new coke. But seriously, how about a linux desktop o.s.? To me one of the last hurdles is those last couple of windows based apps you can't ditch, but there is no viable linux version of them yet? I think the thin client model may be the answer to that. It could work much like a terminal server or a citrix client does now, except delivering just those couple of apps that would not run on the linux desktop. Really for email and web browsing linux is superior to windows as there are few linux viruses and those that exist neither propagate well or do much damage. For office, really open office is adequate for most business uses with the exception of migrating complex spreadsheets, which could be served across the network thin client style. That way you have the advantage of a fat client desktop... with the advantage of free open source... and you still run those last couple apps as usual until an open source replacement comes along.

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