Nature Abhors a Vacuum
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There was some chatter yesterday over at Microsoft's Channel 9 blog about Microsoft releasing plenty of products for businesses, while a weak consumer strategy drives people to buy Macs this holiday season. |
The bloggers rightly wondered about what Microsoft will offer consumers. Microsoft will open up its Windows Vista consumer goody bag, but not until January. No question, early marketing focus is the business.
Roles reversed, Apple isn't exactly clamoring to tell an enterprise story. Apple's interest is largely confined to smaller businesses and, of course, consumers. Besides Mac computers, Apple offers server and storage products that would interest larger businesses. But the marketing push is for consumers, kind of the opposite of Microsoft right now.
Consumers are customers, too, and increasingly important ones. After years of business dominance, consumers are proving to be important PC buyers again. Microsoft's recent financial reports show increasingly strong consumer sales, even as business purchases decline. Last week, Endpoint Technologies forecast that 41 percent of Windows Vista licenses would go to consumers in 2007.
Mac's New Hawk
Meanwhile, increasing Mac momentum is a real phenomenon, and Apple is winning some surprising converts. Last week, digital media enthusiast and Zoomr CEO Thomas Hawk admitted that he "felt conflicted and unsure of, something that I've felt ashamed of and proud of at the same time." Hawk switched to the Mac.
Anyone regularly reading his blog would know that Hawk has been a Windows Media Center fan. Writing on November 17: "One of the things that Media Center is doing right is encouraging outside developers to write applications for Media Center with an open SDK."
Microsoft can't afford to lose enthusiasts. They are the best marketers, the best influencers for purchase of any product.
I recently did the opposite of Hawk. After 10 months of running Mac OS X as my primary operating system and Windows Vista as secondary, I sold my MacBook Pro. I switched to Windows Vista full time, in part because it's a better platform from which to be watching Microsoft.
Windows Vista's appeal increased over time, too, although it took a long time. In more than 10 years of testing Microsoft operating systems, Vista is the first Windows version I couldn't use full time by Beta 2 (sometimes even Beta 1). I didn't feel comfortable to put Windows Vista into production until Release Candidate 2. I started using gold code about three weeks ago.
No Excuses
I won't make excuses for Microsoft. There simply are not enough supporting Windows Vista applications and drivers yet. Vista isn't yet consumer ready. I see the unreadiness as an extension of Microsoft's logistical goof that resulted in Windows Vista missing the holiday sales season. I keep asking Microsoft executives, How do you miss Christmas! No one has an answer because there is none. You can't miss Christmas.
Microsoft's Christmas miss is Apple's great bounty. Windows XP looks too old and familiar on store shelves, and even Windows Media Center is like a well-worn penny. A thought: Windows XP supports themes for changing the look of the desktop. Hey, retailers, you should skin the operating system and freshen up those XP PCs with a new look and feel (and heaven forbid not a Mac OS X knockoff).
Windows Vista for the holidays would have meant bountiful marketing and news coverage. Vista would have been everywhere, foreboding like dark storm clouds over the Mac. Instead, Apple has clear sales skies ahead.
A Vista Christmas would have meant loads of consumer-specific marketing. Instead, the noise is, as it has been for months, about businesses. It's no surprise there is blog chatter asking where are the consumer benefits.
Talking Benefits
The big benefit is the one Microsoft has shown little interest delivering: Better consumer licensing. Mac OS X costs around $129 for the full version, or $199 for a family pack of five licenses. By comparison, Windows Vista Home Premium suggested price is $159 for the upgrade and $239 for the full version. The cost covers one license for one PC, with product activation and validation. Apple includes trust in its pricing. Microsoft offers nothing comparable to Apple's Mac OS X family pack.
My Microsoft sources tell me that consumer licensing changes are absolutely being considered. Last I heard, any licensing changes would likely come after Windows Vista ships to consumers. From one perspective, the biggest consumer benefit would come from offering a family pack around launch. The pricing would be a good way to encourage consumers with multiple PCs to acquire more Vista upgrades. Whether from a marketing, logistical or security perspective, more consumers on Windows Vista faster is good for Microsoft and its customers.
Another perspective is the profit-maximization conspiracy theory. Retail license sales surge right after a new operating system ships and quickly wane over the six months following release. Microsoft could revive retail sales by offering a family license later in the buying cycle.
Come January, Microsoft will better highlight business benefits, too. Last week's Windows Vista business launch was just a start. Microsoft is waiting to really ramp up marketing about business benefits until around the time Vista ships preloaded on new PCs.
Meanwhile, nature abhors a vacuum, and Windows Vista's Christmas miss is opportunity for more Mac sales to fill the empty space (Apple sold 1.61 million Macs during its fiscal fourth quarter). Thomas Hawk might not have been tempted to switch if Windows Vista had shipped for the holidays. I know of plenty other switchers, and Microsoft can expect even more through December 26 (Here are five recent or planned switchers I found by doing a quick Web search: one, two, three, four, five).
As a user, I'll say it: Mac OS X Tiger is unequivocally superior to Windows XP. I wouldn't say the same about Windows Vista, however. Tiger and Vista are more equals, but not really enough. I'll take Vista over Tiger, which I've already done.
Who knows, I might yet again carry around a MacBook Pro, but it will be running Windows Vista. Commenters, do you think many so-called switchers might do the same, after Windows Vista ships?
Comments (29)
Well you finally tipped your hand Joe, you are a MAC person.
Why did you start writing for "Microsoft Watch" when you have MAC on your mind ??
Specially with your last comment "As a user, I'll say it: Mac OSX Tiger is unequivocally superior to Windows XP".
Notice that Joe calls it "Mac OS X Tiger" and not just "Mac OS X" by adding in the the "Tiger" part of it (to me anyway) , only a MAC person would do that, to me it is "Mac OS" because I am a PC person.
I will ask again "Why is Joe Wilcox writing for Microsoft Watch when it is so clear that he is NOT unbiased in his writings of anything to do with Microsoft?"
Posted by Neil | December 4, 2006 8:44 PM
They obviously missed Xmas because the software wasn't ready for that date. Clearly, that's very painful for them and hardly something they'd do lightly.. so obviously they didn't ship it until they felt it was ready, and they stuck to their guns there. Joe, don't just play brainless armchair quarterback by saying "oh how could they". You try managing a project of that size.
Meanwhile, if you could report anything with facts and useful information, that would be greatly appreciated, and a wonderful change. Maybe the new Expression stuff, the new mobile live apps, maybe even some Xbox360 stuff? How about following up on things that released a year ago and see how they're working in reality. That would be journalism in a positive sense - I'd like to know what was hype and what's worth a look.
Thanks.
Posted by David | December 4, 2006 9:30 PM
I agree with David. How about following up on things from a year ago? If I recall correctly, it was a year ago that Microsoft and MTV formed that iTunes/iPod killer called URGE.
How's that doing?
Posted by Christopher | December 4, 2006 10:22 PM
One thing is agree with 101% is that MS has been doing less and less for consumers over the years. If they start producing really good and free COMPETITIVE consumer software, that might even change their opinion in the average Joe's mind.
Posted by someone | December 4, 2006 11:06 PM
You will find at MW the kind of stories you asked for.
Microsoft Expression, http://www.microsoft-watch.com/content/developer/gauging_microsofts_expression.html
Zune and URGE: http://www.microsoft-watch.com/content/games_consumer/zune_goes_to_war.html
Vista Launch Preview (discusses Live and correctly predicts services announcements the next day): http://www.microsoft-watch.com/content/vista/sound_of_the_opening_bell.html
Thanks.
Posted by Joe | December 5, 2006 12:18 AM
Joe,
Hasnt there been 5 paid upgrades to Mac OS in the period between XP and Vista?
In other words, surely Max OS would have cost a lot more if you stayed up to date?
Please correct me if I am wrong? I am not a Mac user.
Posted by Jimmy Neutron | December 5, 2006 7:40 AM
Neil:
If I want to read cheer leading or PR releases about how great MS is I will just go the microsoft.com website.
Joe is commenting on and discussing.
I think it's great a MAC user is writing about MS. There should also be a Linus user too.
I always find it interesting that MS fans are such a combination of bravado and insecurity.
Posted by Just-a-drone | December 5, 2006 8:48 AM
I've been a Microsoft guy ever since 1983 (when I bought the IBM PC). Two years ago, I bought the iMac G5 and I haven't looked back! OS X is soooo much better than Windows.
Joe says, "I'll take Vista over Tiger." Um, I'll take Leopard over Vista. That's the smarter move.
Vista is *immature*. It has Version 1.0 kinks. And as Joe points out, it's not consumer-ready. (Yes, I'm a consumer.)
David says, "You try managing a project of that size." My feeling is that Microsoft was too damn ambitious with the Longhorn project. They bit off far more than they could chew. As a result, I won't even consider using Vista until at least Service Pack 1. And perhaps not even then.
Posted by Richard Eng | December 5, 2006 11:30 AM
Hey, Joe....here's an idea for your next article:
Microsoft has been found guilty on 2 continents
(soon to be 3) of criminal activity and stifling
innovation.
If I were you, I'd drop them like
a french omellette. Get the MacBook back.
Mac OS has always put windows to shame....
Posted by Todd Marty | December 5, 2006 3:13 PM
Hey, Joe....here's an idea for your next article:
Microsoft has been found guilty on 2 continents
(soon to be 3) of criminal activity and stifling
innovation.
If I were you, I'd drop them like
a french omellette. Get the MacBook back.
Mac OS has always put windows to shame....
Posted by Todd Marty | December 5, 2006 3:13 PM
in re: jimmy neutron, I've been usung mac os-x for 2 years, whenever there is a new upgrade/security update/a little improvement, apple sends it.
FOR FREE.
the os tells me there is a software update available and what it covers (features, how big it is, and how long it will take do download). then i choose to install it or not (even choose some things ignore others)and it takes care of itself. easy.
try that with a pc !
when's the last time you got something from ms besides a bug for FREE ???
Posted by dirty mac | December 5, 2006 3:20 PM
Reference the 5 paid updates, if microsoft had delivered 5 versions of their OS in 5 years, do you think they would not have charged you for it?
They charged you from DOS to Win 3.0, to 98, to Me, to XP. Lets also not forget the XP has XP home, pro, and Media center and to move / upgrade from one to the other you have to pay. If you want the server version the jump is even more.
As to Joe's point of view..... He is being very open in his point of view. He is observing the obvious. Do you want him to be a zelot and not see past his nose? If you see obvious advantages in a product and the service, do you not consider it? Do you instead refuse to look at it because it is not the tried and true that you followed for years?
With the ability of the Intel Macs to run Windows and windows applications, there is little to lose except the old habits. The cost of the hardware is close to the same and in some cases the Mac is cheaper when you compare to equal hardware.
I expect a lot more switchers, not because Vista is 5 years late, but because people are tired of the security issues, crashes and the constant barrage of problems. People want a computer as a tool that makes their life easy, they don't want all the maintenance, so people are starting to move.
Different strokes for different folks, live and let live.
Posted by EagerDragon | December 5, 2006 3:51 PM
Just a Drone
Mate you have a brain just like a "Drone" ...no brain !!
You think that it is refreshing for a MAC user to write about a PC.
What is he going to say "nothing good that's for sure" !
Are you a MAC user Joe ?? Tell us .. come on !
It would not surprise me one little bit.
I am NOT a MS fanatic...just a normal PC user who takes exception to BS that has touted on this site as truth. I am also NOT against MAC (but you guys have been against PC users though).
Thinking that you are better than us, to me it does not matter, you like yours, and we like ours. But you guys are really taking it too far I feel.
This site did write articles about MS WITHOUT all the bias that is currently had, so now it is not really worth reading anymore.
It seems that MS has lost a "Neutral" site and gained a "BIASED" one instead.
Nowadays I go to other sites to read news that don't have the bias against MS that this one now has !
Sure sometimes MS deserves it, BUT ALL THE TIME !
NO WAY !
Posted by Neil | December 5, 2006 5:44 PM
Not to drag this out, but I earn my money on a Windows XP computer with Office 2003. At home I split my time between Windows XP and Linux.
Posted by just-a-drone | December 5, 2006 8:46 PM
Not to drag this out, but I earn my money on a Windows XP computer with Office 2003. At home I split my time between Windows XP and Linux.
I am just a humble user. I don't program or develop.
Posted by just-a-drone | December 5, 2006 8:47 PM
Neil:
Can you believe that you annoy me with your pointless rants as much as Joe Wilcox annoys you. If you can appreciate that then do me a favour and give it a rest. Are you really going to stop visiting MS Watch as you keep threatening to or is that just wishful thinking on my part.
Posted by William | December 6, 2006 9:01 AM
I found the article quite thought provoking. Thank you for writing it.My parents (in their late 60's) use Apple systems, my brother uses Apple systems, my SOHO PC business and home is all Linux desktops and FreeBSD for the server. It is sad to watch all the angst from the Microsoft crowd over Vista. I am sure my little SOHO PC biz will be making money fixing problems with Vista by cleaning up adware/spyware just like with all previous versions. We would probably make a lot less if everyone switched to "better security by default" operating systems. Although AIUI Vista is almost catching up to what has been available with Unix and Unix-like operating systems for a Long Time Now.FWIW, I hope Vista comes out Real Soon Now so we can start making more money off poor, abused Microsoft consumers. Our customers running our custom built Linux desktop and server systems rarely call for paid support so we need to make support money somewhere ... yes, I am serious and no, this is not intended to be seen as an "attack on Microsoft users".
Posted by eracc | December 6, 2006 10:54 AM
hi i was an MCSE i have worked with pcs for about 30 years. i started out doing network support in a mainframe environment; then i moved into pc support.also i have worked with Novell server currently i am on vista but ready to go back to XP if needed.i go by the thought "go with what works".my opinion vista is not ready for prime time yet.
Posted by ron lafferty | December 6, 2006 10:43 PM
sounds good
Posted by Autoamated Blog Poster | December 15, 2006 1:21 AM
So, my 13 year olddaughter would like a new PC or MAC...Which one should I buy? If I buy a mac and add Windows isn't that a waste of money?
Posted by GJS | January 8, 2007 4:19 PM
GJS wrote: "My 13 year olddaughter would like a new PC or MAC...Which one should I buy?"
My 12 year-old daughter has a MacBook, which she adores. I can't tempt her with Vista. Yet.
If you buy a MacBook, you can always add Windows later. But if you buy a Windows notebook, you can't add Mac OS X later. For a kid, the big value of Mac OS X is iLife.
That said, there are some tremendous Windows notebook values right now, as manufacturers upped hardware for Vista.
Joe
Posted by Joe | January 8, 2007 9:30 PM
Ok, here we go.
First of all, screw it, Macs are nice hardware.
Second of all, the Microsoft Hater with the double post is a nice touch. You know, every time I see a screw up like that at the hands of a Mac user, I think they are technologically inept. If it weren't for all the bloggers who get paid to switch by Apple, I would think they were all a bunch of dunderheads who don't even know the guts of their PC.
Second. The major reason why I would ever run (I'm hopping Parallels turns it around on them, I may love the Mac hardware, but I'm a custom build kinda guy) a Mac is the software. Final Cut Express runs circles around Windows Movie Maker (at least the XP version, I've tried both...) for the time being... Actually... (Photoshop is cross platform) I don't really know of any other reason I want a Mac more then that... but its soo good... and its the light version... Anywho, hopefully Parallels will allow me to run a Mac in Windows, I hate the UI for the Mac...
Third. I'm keeping XP until SP 1 of Vista. I'm happy with Windows XP. Besides, the last version of Windows I have was 98. Its still humming along on my network.
Fourth. XP is reliable, I have not gotten any viruses ever. May come off as snobbish, but unless a group of hackers went after someone, theres no way in hell you should end up with even the most harmless malware on your system, as long as you have an ounce of common sense... but that seems to be the problem with consumers... Without them we would have never came this far in the computer world, but they never do get the knack of using a computer... well, at least they are using the mouse now, and some have even flocked to the internets...
Last point before I go. More people should use Macs, and even more so, shoot for Linux; competition is great for one group of people: The Consumer!
Posted by Yert | January 28, 2007 5:05 AM
I'm not quite sure I understand that?
Then again it's probably just me.
Posted by Bennett | May 11, 2007 9:39 PM
I'm not quite sure I understand that?
Then again, it's probably just me.
Posted by BertHamilton | May 12, 2007 12:11 PM
Very nice. Love this place!
Keep up the good work!
Posted by MrBenton | May 15, 2007 1:11 PM
What does that have to do with anything?
I'm just confused I guess.
Oh wel...
Posted by BigGreg | June 4, 2007 3:45 PM
Hmm...This gives me some interesting ideas...
Thanks for spinning my wheels!
Posted by MrHrtuare | June 26, 2007 6:34 PM
Wow, there is some really nice info here.
I'll definitely come back soon to see everything.
Way to go! ;-)
Mary
Posted by Mary | September 5, 2007 4:55 PM
Wow, there is some really nice info here.
I'll definitely come back soon to see everything.
Way to go! ;-)
Mary
Posted by Mary | September 5, 2007 5:05 PM