Setting Vista Expectations Straight
|
In a late-afternoon blog post, Gartner research analyst David Smith warned Microsoft about setting Windows Vista expectations too high. It's good advice. |
"Microsoft has done a good job promoting the consumer Vista launch," Smith wrote. "But, in some ways, it may have done too well. By claiming that Vista is the biggest release since Windows 95, the company is inviting comparisons of the two launches."
Smith acknowledged the well-understand aberration of computing history, where a convergence of events made for a huge Windows 95 launch response. The growth market is gone, however, and with it has come a user base of largely satisfied Windows XP users.
"Vista (unlike XP and 95) [is] trying to replace a system that users are mostly happy with," Smith wrote. "This should not be underestimated. As much as there have been issues with XP, the installed base is generally happy."
Smith observed the telling sign, the "crowds (or lack thereof)" at midnight sales events. "The combination of the mostly happy XP users and the fact that this is the middle of winter, not the summertime launch of Win95, mean we are unlikely to see anywhere near the crowds that the introduction of Win95 brought," he wrote.
So far, the lack of enthusiasm--beyond Microsoft celebrations, of which there are many--defines Windows Vista's launch. The situation isn't a slight on Windows Vista, but more a testament to Windows XP. Security reputation aside, Windows XP is a good operating system, and many people will be satisfied to stick with it.
The huge opportunity for Google and other Web platform companies is offering enough stuff that customers see little reason to give up Windows XP. Colleague Darryl Taft's news story, "Google's Bosworth: Why AJAX Failed (Then Succeeded)," is a must-read for understanding technology adoption and getting a real sense of where the Web platform is going. Right now the major platform for consuming Web 2.0 is Windows XP--and it may be for a long time.
I suppose Microsoft had a big launch because somebody there recognizes the "good enough" problem presented by Windows XP. The big event, the big excitement is one way of stirring up interest and hopefully upgrades. If it's really big, then it must be really good.
Earlier today, I joked with someone that surely there is a good light bulb joke in all the Windows Vista hype and marketing. How many launch events, advertisements or Microsoft employees does it take to launch a new a product? Whatever your answer, contrast it to a similar question about Apple. The answer is one. Steve Jobs.
Vista's launch is a big event. But the difference with Windows 95 is source. Customer demand--people standing in long lines to get boxes of Windows 95--made the operating system's launch big. With Vista, Microsoft is driving the size through its launches, tours, marketing efforts and contests. Vista's launch is marketing mayhem on a grand scale. Maybe it's too big for the size of the customer response.
"Even if Vista ultimately is successful, which it eventually will be, it will have to overcome some expectations this week," Smith wrote.
He's probably right.
Comments (6)
Its got to be the biggest, bloated POS to hit the market in 10 years.
Loaded "Business version" upgrade yesterday on a Dual core 2.8 PC with 2 GB RAM and 2 160GB drives...took almost 2 HOURS!
VISTA IS SLOW AS SH****TTTT!
XP Pro runs like a rocket on it.
Besides, after the initial install, it downloaded 125MB in FIXES the've done since RTM and 3 of the "updated drivers" I needed DIDN'T WORK!
It'll be a disaster for MS, but they HAD to get it out the door....3 years late to boot.
Returning it tomorrow.
You have been warned.
Posted by Patrick | January 31, 2007 4:31 PM
If your system took 2 hrs to install Vista then something is wrong with it. I installed Vista on a 2yr old P4 3.4 ghz in 20 min. No problems. In fact if you look on the web everyone agrees it installs much faster than any previous windows version.
Everyone should run the upgrade advisor before you install it, it will tell you if there will be any issues with your system.
Posted by Andrew | January 31, 2007 8:11 PM
If your system took 2 hrs to install Vista then something is wrong with your pc. I installed Vista on a 2yr old P4 3.4 ghz in 20 min. No problems. In fact if you look on the web everyone agrees it installs much faster than any previous windows version.
Everyone should run the upgrade advisor before you install it, it will tell you if there will be any issues with your system.
Posted by Andrew | January 31, 2007 8:11 PM
I couldn't help notice the closing line.
"Even if Vista ultimately is successful, which it eventually will be, it will have to overcome some expectations this week," Smith wrote.
An if with a will be. It might, but it will?? Mhhh. Do I read a shoving down my throat of Windows Vista?
These types of contradictions are the ones that buzz in my head as I listen to Vista news. For starters you already pointed us to one. The whole audio security thing. Let us rephrase this as your closing statement. 'Even if Vista is ultimately secure, which it eventually will be, it will have to overcome some security issues this...first year?'
Then there is the Monad thing (PowerShell). Which for Vista is currently on RC2 for Vista RC1. Mhhhh not much usefulness there. Not to mention Visual Studio. As per Microsoft's own words
"The changes will impact Visual Studio and thus we're unable to support Visual Studio .NET 2002 or Visual Studio .NET 2003 on Windows Vista."
So all your current .NET stuff that isn't on VS 2005 is going bye bye. Not much of an incentive to upgrade. Specially if you lived through the VB 6 to .NET thing. Hehehe. Oh and by the way. If you do happen to have .NET 2005 you still have to wait for...
"The Visual Studio 2005 SP1 Update for Windows Vista is expected to ship after the consumer availability of Windows Vista in Q1 of 2007 and is now available in beta."
so you'll see it...
"delivers a first class experience for developers wanting to take advantages of the new features in Windows Vista."
So if I'm doing software I can't use my current .NET stuff (in case of 2003 and 2002). And I'll bet there is plenty out there and I'll also bet there isn't enough money to do a migration and test of all that stuff overnight. But if I do have 2005 stuff I still can't use all the WOW Vista stuff until AFTER consumer release. So if I can't add an extra WOW before consumer release then I don't have it at consumer release. So I don't need my consumers to upgrade to Vista AT consumer release either.
So it has nothing to do with expectations. It has everything to do with real life applications. After three or four years of looking over both the Microsoft, Mac and Linux camps I'm sorry to see that Microsoft has learned nothing from its own Linux and Mac bashing.
It doesn't release a new OS for 6 years and when it does, the OS has so many HW requirements and backward compatibility issues it is a pain just to consider moving to it. How many of your inhouse applications will break? How many of your games will no longer run? Etc etc etc.
Windows versions have proliferated to a level unseen before. Microsoft supporters kept nagging Linux for having way too many versions. Now they're in the same arena. It even makes me wonder what ever happened to those ideas of software by subscription. Couldn't Vista just enable or disable stuff as you go along paying?
Think about it. I could get a cheap Basic system and then pay for an upgrade to say Premium. Or from Premium to Ultimate. It would be so simple. Pay, insert the DVD, upgrade and your done. Same setup, same registry etc, just new features. On the other hand if I get a Premium, but I want some of Business' features I have to do a compromise. Not to mention installing Business (read backup and lost time). And it can't possibly be argued on the piracy line because a) pirates are (err, have) broken into all versions of Vista b) Vista has the whole DRM issue on audio and video (read Vaughan-Nichols's articles). So if they can keep audio and video bit streams secure. Can't they keep their own code???
I'm glad you're pointing out issues with Vista. I believe the crowd has be mesmerized over the years by spin masters like Coursey and Foley. It was all well in candy land until you came along and started saying terrible things about Microsoft. But, as with all in life, reality does catch up to us one way or the other.
Microsoft Vista looks today as a 2006 Linux or Mac. By that I mean it holds a great deal of the shortcomings that were held by Linux and Mac in 2006. It has on great advantage of a great deal of channels and installed Windows systems. It has a great disadvantage of a great deal of installed Windows systems too. It will have security issues that will remind us of the early XP days. It will have application limitations. It will have a learning curve. It will have a different interface we'll have to get used to. It will have user account issues.
Unfortunately for Vista, Mac and Linux have had a long history of proper user accounts and management. So neither Mac nor Linux apps will break under new releases. If I ever heard that PERL or Ruby couldn't run in my next Linux I'd laugh myself dead. But it is common in Windows. Even generally accepted.
Mac and Linux are better posed for 2007 than Windows is. People don't know how to work with Vista, install it, give it support, work with user account issues, trouble shoot apps etc. So a jump from XP to OS X is at its lowest stress point ever. If Microsoft die hards keep spinning their own reality web around them they'll soon find out they've been left behind. The Mac and Linux communities have worked on fixing their issues not hiding them. They're not over the hill in getting features out the door yet, but they're close (once again read Vaughan-Nichols's articles on Vista vs Linux installs). I wish you the best of luck in showing us the Microsoft reality to many so that it may be fixed.
Posted by Gerardo Tasistro | February 1, 2007 10:37 AM
Steve Jobs has done such a spectacular job marketing Mac/OSX, that their USA market share has "skyrocketed" all the way up to 4.7% (IDC, Q4-2006). The Mac's worldwide market share is even lower; 2.4% according to one source.
I look forward to using Vista, when it comes preinstalled on my next computer.
Posted by JohnJ | February 1, 2007 1:58 PM
Why no queues? Probably because the sort of people who queue for software have been using it for months anyway. Remember there were a million beta testers and RTM versions were freely available!
There was a couple of hundred at the main Sydney (Australia) release, with about 20-50 at each of the others (I think that's probably 500 across Sydney who turned out at midnight on a Monday night). From a population of 4.5m, that's equivalent to about 2,300 at a New York midnight sale/launch. Not bad numbers really. And our midnight sale was only at one chain (which is popular with mums & dads but not enthusiasts as they only sell brand-name PCs).
Maybe all the US enthusiasts downloaded it (downloading's not available here).
Posted by Peter H | February 5, 2007 8:51 AM