Vista Isn't Windows' Last Destination
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The wicked 2007 predictions continue, with Gartner claiming Vista is end of the line for Windows. Who spiked the eggnog? |
That's OK. I assume that IDC's tippled eggnog led to prediction: "Microsoft's anti-piracy campaign will drive customers toward Linux." Gartner is in good company.
"Vista will be the last major release of Microsoft Windows. The next generation of operating environments will be more modular and will be updated incrementally. The era of monolithic deployments of software releases is nearing an end. Microsoft will be a visible player in this movement, and the result will be more-flexible updates to Windows and a new focus on quality overall."
Re-e-e-ally? Microsoft started its era of modular design three years ago with release of Windows Server 2003. Last I checked, the company still planned on releasing Windows Server "Longhorn." Modularity hasn't been the end for Windows Server, why should it be for Windows?
Microsoft extended the more modular approach to Windows Vista, which derives its lineage from Windows Server. Vista is more modular in part because of changes to Automatic Update. Microsoft is betting that it can make changes to Windows Vista, even before customers get the product. Yesterday, Microsoft released, through auto update, a poison pill for hacked-pirated copies of Windows Vista.
The idea is to roll out more incremental updates over time, from Microsoft and partners. In a blog post last month, Jim Allchin, co-president of Microsoft's Platforms & Services division, explained how final Windows Vista code isn't final.
"The magic of Windows Update and Automatic Updates makes this 'frozen in time' distribution problem basically a non-issue...Windows Vista will continuously get better and better, automatically," he wrote.
Automatic Update is a bull for enterprises to tackle, because of potential applications incompatibility. Unmonitored updates could be a bull in the china shop. Further, the whole modular concept is an IT burden, even with tools like Windows Server Update Services, if it means an ongoing barrage of updates to manage. Of course Microsoft understands this, which why the move to modularity is being tempered within limits. The company has enough trouble getting customers to upgrade. My money is on at least one more full-release Windows version.
Something else to consider: There's a new sheriff in town, and his name is Steven Sinofksy, senior vice president Windows and Windows Live Engineering. Sinofsky ran a tight ship when responsible for Office development. He's too smart to cut Microsoft's other cash cow into the little modular pieces that Gartner suggests.
On the other hand, it's reasonable to expect Sinofsky and Company to put more Live into Windows and, likewise, more Windows into Live. From a business model perspective, there are good synergies between services and software. Many medium and large businesses acquire software through volume licensing, which payment scheme is subscription-like. Services that aren't subsidized through advertising are subscriptions. If there is another form of modularity coming to Windows it will be through Live and other connected services that add onto to the operating system, without necessarily changing it.
In April, Microsoft published "Architectural Strategies for Capturing the Long Tail," which is an excellent primer explaining how the company views SAAS (software as a service). The paper also offers excellent guidance specifically for IT organizations about what SAAS could mean to their businesses. The paper highlights more potential changes for server than desktop software.
The concession I would make to Gartner's prediction is the server, where hosted services using Microsoft software would change delivery and consumption of information. Microsoft already is moving in that direction with Exchange Server 2007. Virtualization would be another influencer on the desktop, but not yet the elimination of the operating system--if ever.
If Gartner's prediction is right, it's a telling of history, not the future. Microsoft worst-nightmare scenario is this: Customers choose to stick with Windows XP, rather than upgrade, and add on Web services that extend the operating system's capabilities.
Modularity would come not from Microsoft but its competitors. Consumers add value to Windows XP by way of services like Facebook, Flickr or Gmail; businesses by services like Salesforce.com--all consumed within a Web browser.
The unanswered question: How many customers will continue with Windows XP and these Web services rather than switch to Windows Vista? I suggest looking into Gartner's crystal ball a year from now for the answer.
Comments (17)
I predict that Gartner's analysts, predictions and reports will lose also credibility and relevance by 2003. Oh, wait!
Posted by Hawkeye666 | December 15, 2006 3:39 PM
I predict that Gartner's analysts, predictions and reports will lose all credibility and relevance by 2003. Oh, wait!
Posted by Hawkeye666 | December 15, 2006 3:39 PM
Vista will succeed because the self-absorbed Linux "community" has completely failed to produce a palatable, that is to say well-productized, version of Linux for the desktop that moderately technical users can install and use as easily as they can Windows.
Yes, I've seen the humour sites where a Linux afficionado plays word games the purpose of which is to make it seem that its Windows that's the difficult O.S. to install and use.
But the fact is that a great number, perhaps even a majority, of desktop computer users would love to escape the luxuriously appointed prison cell that is Windows. Unfortunately, and after all these years, Linux remains an unassembled log cabin kit.
If that weren't true, Vista wouldn't be an issue...
Posted by Ric | December 15, 2006 6:20 PM
Ric ... I agree with you 100% mate !
My daughter has "Unbuntu" at school and was only too happy to get back to Windows XP after her course had finished.
My daughter described "Unbuntu" as an OS that was for the technically minded person, I suppose that once you would get used it, it would be easier, but Windows is easy "straight away" not in time like "Unbuntu".
There is one other thing that not many people have said anything about ... and that is GAMES, windows main claim to fame is that it runs GAMES, have you ever seen games advertised for "Linux" !!
Posted by Neil | December 15, 2006 11:15 PM
Microsoft is always chargesheeted for the Creating FUD in the linux community. But infact the linux community is creating FUD for the windows, because they have tried their level best to enforce the linux into the desktop arena but have failed miserably. Windows would remain king on the client side and ofcourse it is also giving heat to the linux servers by creating more secure and better windows server os. One of the fact which remains is that the laptops are being bought with preloaded with linux os and after the buy it is changed to windows xp to work in a better way...The people are jealous about microsoft and they will remain the same.
Posted by Rohit Dhand | December 16, 2006 12:05 AM
SCHOOLS OUT!
its 2am here in Melbourne
puppet1991@hotmail.com
http://groups.msn.com/puppet1991
Posted by puppet | December 16, 2006 10:02 AM
GOD... You guys are narrow minded...
Try to see the Linux OS not as an enemy of windows or whatsoever, the idea of the linux comunity isn't to sink Windows or microsoft... Its to provide a viable replacement to it. And not for "everyone" only to the people who do not wish or cant afford to buy Microsoft's Windows XP or Vista and none of them will go bellow 100$. But of course for some piracy is allways an option. Well in the market there is no piracy option, either you do are a suporter of MS Windows and are willing to pay at least 250$ for a vista or you are a Linux suporter and will use it free of charge (even though miserably prepared for the desktop arena as some say) and spend some money on it if you think it is worth it.
At least have the decency to respect the free hard work of thousands of developers who spend their hours and... even money to help the comunity.
I think these are brave men. Windows is buggy, why does linux has to be perfect? Microsoft pays millions to people so they can develop a good OS. And when you pay for a buggy OS, I guess its as bad as not paying for a buggy good free Linux OS.
Posted by Philippe Rodrigues | December 16, 2006 1:36 PM
Has anyone ever wondered why Linux / MAC users "hate" a windows user so much??
Well I ventured over to "Microsoft watch" sister site "Linux Watch" and ALL was revealed !
No wonder they hate us so much with comments like this "Also visit: eWEEK's Linux center and our evil twin ... microsoft watch" !
Or this one "Dec. 15, 2006 — The website's name tells it all. BadVista.org, a website run by the Free Software Foundation (FSF) is devoted to the mission of exposing the harms inflicted on computer users by the Microsoft's Windows Vista operating system and promoting free software alternatives that respect users' security and privacy rights."
The above two instances were done by "Welcome to Linux-Watch! I'm Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols" now that isn't "pandering" to hatred of Windows I don't know what is !!
How eweek do this ? It is inciting hatred between the different platforms !!
All editors of different platforms should wake up to themselves and should not be "inciters" but "informers" of news and events.
Lately Joe Wilcox has been willing, why can't others ??
Posted by Neil | December 16, 2006 9:23 PM
Actually you're wrong about componentized Windows starting with Windows Server 2003 - it actually started with Windows XP Embedded.
Posted by Waethorn | December 27, 2006 12:14 AM
I think so the people have gone mad to make the linux the choice over the desktop. If it is so good then it will automatically replace windows and make a place in the community. But I think that the free linux is not there and people are charged for the some services in the Open source also.
Posted by Rohit Dhand | February 26, 2007 7:21 AM
hi
i think this man rohit dhand has lost his sense of professionalism.He seems to be someone who does not what the OS is and how to respect somebody who is working for nothing.
or i can put in other words, ' HEIGHT OF FOOLISHNESS IS = HEIGHT OF IGNORANCE = LACK OF KNOWLEDGE'
Windows is good , its catchy, but its not at all safe. Above all it has thousand lines of codes being taken from older windows, which are of no use. It contains lots and lots of services which are not being used by a simple man and the code eats lot of space and energy of processor without being actually used.REF Please read in detail before making any comment mr dhand.
Above all, if window blind follower have used CEntos or ubuntu, they would have got the answers. and above all, CHANGE IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT.
linux is free and has no market gimmicks. people work for fun.
and commercializing linux is always an option and companies are using it , but for that you cant forget the hardwork of legends like linus trovalds.
please people like mr dhand, have some good knowledge and then try to make comments.
Posted by realgeek | December 19, 2007 7:55 PM
Hi Real Geek,
To your common sense and great knowledege,nothing in this world comes free. Why the Internet you are using comes free for you. Develop a free software that gives a line for the bandwdith for free..of cost...U foolish people...HA ha...A person sitting at the top has to face all the bull shit u are writing and u are one of them who cant tolerate the monopoly of windows.
And Mr. Real Geek, Mr. check your basic knowledge and then Let me know, RedHat is Free or not? Ha ha...Go to School...Again for the basics...Service Support for linux is Free or charged by RedHat? Again check your basic information.
LINUX=HEIGHT OF JEALOUS PEOPLE FROM MICROSOFT=PEOPLE WHO WANT TO MAKE MONEY...BUT OPENLY CANT ADMIT=MR. REAL GEEK
Waiting for your foolish comments against windows and me...and saying Linux is very good because Windows is BAD....FUD created by LINUX not windows.
Posted by Rohit Dhand | January 4, 2008 12:56 PM
hi all,
i dont want to create personal enemies on this forum. but this man rohit dhand is really getting on nerves. What do you expect out of linux geeks. do you want them to create a wonderful operating system and maintain your systems for nothing. Have you ever tried a service support for linux. countless number of times, i get it free from my forums.
did you ever know why people prefer mozilla over internet explorer for their banking transactions.
above all, have you ever written any piece of code.i can swear you have never ever written anything of yours. to me you seems to be theif.
enjoy your windows love and , i really wonder how people really listen you where you work or study whatever.
have a balance mind, i am not cursing your windows(faithful dogs of windowsS)
Posted by real geek | January 30, 2008 8:11 PM
hi all,
i know windows are flashy,they are good for a person, who just needs to do some work.
but we are professionals. i have couple of issues like security, warnings, open ports, explorer, services open without any use and eating system resources and making OS more vulnerable.
you are working and copying something and then message comes ,cannot copy and it goes off. the last couple of hour work goes without even warning.you cant check what is happening when your machine is connected to internet.
offcourse you can close your services, can make your windows more secure, but then again a million dollar question and answer " do a common man knows how to do that. even mr rohit dhand knows how to do that.
for that you need an expert hand. then i am sure an expert or os lover will love linux because he or she can learn more, and can really exploit the code to write something better.
free code is the life line of coming generations.else we have to start everything from scratch. why dont mr rohit dhand understand this small question. why after so many years of working with some many engineers, windows cant do these simple things. why microsoft doesnot pay attention whenever there is security leak and then they took so long to offer patches. just marketing gimmicks along with an ego (same as mr dhand. true follower).
mr dhand question is not about windows vs linux. question is can we have better os system.
simply downloading a flashy wall papers, and then installing something is not professionalism, professionalism is to help others and learn more.
but not showing the ego stuff.
have you ever written a system related code. if no then please get lost from this forum, becasue you cannot understand what os is.
i know you will reply with your stupid stuff.
cheers
Posted by real geek | February 3, 2008 7:59 PM
Two responses from Mr. Real Geek has really told, who is the loyal DOG, Windows or Linux. Cheers...I think Mr. Real Geek Ego has not been effected, that's why the retaliation has occurred. He writes:
"Have you ever tried a service support for linux. countless number of times, i get it free from my forums.", A common man goes on the common forums, which he is not aware and then gets the bullshit methods of solving the complex problems. It may be good for you not for the common man."
"did you ever know why people prefer mozilla over internet explorer for their banking transactions." - That's why the London Stock Exchange has preferred Windows OS over the linux Platform. For you knowledge ignorance please check:
http://www.microsoft.com/uk/getthefacts/lse.mspx
"Have u written any piece of software please let me know:--- I will then tell how much software i have written or what i am doing..." I dont go to the personal level like you are doing...:) :) ha ha
" Copying the files and windows services just, is bull shit." Ofcourse better than a single driver installation in linux for even a mouse or fax. One of my friend tried to install the drivers for Fax and the following 1000 steps were involved:
1. Please go to command shell
2. change this configuration file.
3. Change now another configuration file.............. and so on on....
4. And so on.....
ha ha ...The person can personally deliver the fax to the destination himself.
"mr dhand question is not about windows vs linux. question is can we have better os system." Yes u are hundred percent right in this case, Because after complaining all about windows...then people says this line only.....
The reality: Success has many fathers and failure has none?
Just justify the Red hat inclusion of paid services, if they are leaders of the linux as per the Data of IDC. Every body wants to earn money. Why are u doing a job for money. Leave it and do it free for company...:) :) Cheers...U can't do it....
Real Geek...Now i think you ego is again hurt and u will reply back with the bullshit and supporting linux and saying its the best platform? :) :) Cheers..
Posted by Rohit Dhand | February 21, 2008 2:52 AM
Again same old wine in new bottle. Who is cheapster or IDIOT. the one who is saying that or the other one is listening that.
Who getting more personal ? Me or You mr. real geek. All knows....The anger is still wide large on your face. Infact u surprised me because you didnt answer following points:
1. http://www.microsoft.com/uk/getthefacts/lse.mspx
2. Why are u doing a job for money. Leave it and do it free for company?
Again old bull shit? Proud to be PROUD TO BE GNU USER.(CENTOS AND UBUNTU). The fact is that u cant face the windows world. Sitting in one area and saying no one uses Windows, is the best example which suits on u....and Beating the old bush of Linxu more Secure, free, open and blah blha......
I wont advice you, because u are not capable of my advice. donot study in a competitive environment and Then you will also understand what I mean.... U are not finding words to justify your facts...dear..
That happens...Ha ha ha...Cheers...
"PROUD TO BE, NOT A LINUX USER"
Waiting for the a competitive, free, open answer from your side....Cheers..
GOD BLESS EVERY ONE...
Posted by Rohit Dhand | February 25, 2008 11:05 AM
# Microsoft Backs Apache and Open Source
In the past Microsoft has been hostile to the open source movement. But At OSCON, Microsoft announced their sponsorship of "The Apache Software Foundation", joining Google and Yahoo! at Platinum level.
see mr rohit dhand, gift for you.
you moron.
Posted by realgeek | August 26, 2008 2:11 AM