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January 6, 2008 10:18 PM

Windows Vista's 100 Million



In the night's only major gaffe, Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates misstated an important Windows Vista adoption figure during his Consumer Electronics Show keynote.

"We have 100 million people using Vista now," Gates told the capacity crowd in Las Vegas this evening. Maybe the user number was wishful thinking on the part of Gates. Microsoft's press release refers to the more believable number of 100 million licenses sold.

Even the 100 million licenses sold is a misstatement. Microsoft really means 100 million licenses shipped, which doesn't account for the number deployed or number downgraded to Windows XP. I'd like to know how many Windows XP licenses Microsoft shipped during the last six months, particularly to consumers or businesses that bought Windows Vista PCs. Now, that would be an interesting number.

That said, 100 million is an amazing number, given that Windows Vista has been in the mass market—meaning on new PCs—for less than a year. For an operating system panned by many reviewers and customers, Vista is successful as measured by licenses shipped. I've got to wonder: What would the number be if Vista were actually a hit?

Vista was just one of several notable announcements made by Microsoft this evening at CES. In a coup for MSN and Silverlight streaming/video technology, Microsoft announced that MSN would be NBC's exclusive online provider for the 2008 Olympics.

Microsoft will present the content using Silverlight, requring download of the player to PCs or Macs. Microsoft needs a big event like the Olympics to spur ahead Silverlight adoption and gain traction against Adobe Flash. The Flash player is seemingly everywhere. Content is key to any Flash competitor's success. Microsoft has got some compelling content and lever for driving Silverlight downloads. The more PCs capable of running Silverlight, the less difficulty Microsoft will have wooing other content providers.

The Olympics deal is also important for MSN and Microsoft's efforts to drive video entertainment across multiple channels. Gates said that MSN users would be able to customize content to their tastes and get what they want on demand.

"It's going to let us demonstrate why TV is going to be very different," Gates said.

In other video news, ABC and Disney TV shows and MGM movies will be coming to Xbox Live. Like Amazon Unbox or Apple iTunes, Xbox Live programming would be available the day after broadcast. During Gates' keynote, Microsoft also announced that the number of Xbox Live members had reached 10 million, which is about six months ahead of company projections.

New Xbox Live programming wasn't the only news coming out of Microsoft's Entertainment and Devices division. Microsoft is preparing to make Zune available in Canada, which is a first step to international expansion of the device/service. Zune's market weakness is reach. Apple's iPod is widely available internationally; Zune is not. Microsoft will have to do much better than just Canada to gain market share against iPod. That said, Canada is a great addition. Services like iTunes came to Canada much later than European countries.

Microsoft also announced 1.5 million Zune Social subscribers. Microsoft launched the service/Web site in November.

Gates didn't announce any major new Surface applications, as predicted ahead of the keynote. He did demonstrate using a Surface table to order a snowboard, but this is one of many demonstrated retail purchasing scenarios.

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Comments (25)

Brian :

Siverlight is only available for Windows and Mac, and is not available on Ubuntu or on any other Linux-based distro.
I guess that means that in the near term, I'll be spared from suffering from yet another piece of insecure software from Microsoft. Oh, isn't it funny how they praise their latest round of stuff but tomorrow they condemn it and the next day they refuse to use it. Like, for example, Word 2.0 for Windows was just so cool and compelling, and now it's format-non-grata because the Microsoft code that reads it is now all of a sudden deemed insecure.
And how long will it take Microsoft to figure out that the current code that reads the current version of Silverlight is a such a security nightmare that they refuse to read it unless you hunt down a KB article that gives you a registry-hack-from-hell to be able to access it?
If Silverlight ever displaces Flash, I'd watch for the EU to come crashing down on Microsoft and force them to license the formats to others, ala their deal with the Samba folks.

chips :

To Brian;
Quote; "Siverlight is only available for Windows and Mac, and is not available on Ubuntu or on any other Linux-based distro."
----------------------------------------------------
It is available. Its called Mono, and was developed by Novell Suse jointly with M$. I believe it might even be on the newest Ubuntu live cd released recently. As somewhere I seen a post about uninstalling it. Thankfully, the distro of Linux I use will never use Mono. Right now, Silverlight/Mono has almost nothing out there for ads compared to Adobe Flash.
----------------------------------------------------
Quoting Joe Willcox;
"That said, 100 million is an amazing number, given that Windows Vista has been in the mass market—meaning on new PCs—for less than a year."
----------------------------------------------------
No really, when you think about it. Just go down to the local Best Buy, Office Max, Office Depot, Staples, and try to buy a laptop without Vista on it. Bet you can't. And thats where most people are going buy from.

Wonder how many have downgraded to XP? Wonder how many are having a bad experience with Vista, and resent the fact that M$ forced it upon them? Wonder how many will not, like me, buy a new computer with Vista on it?

Mike :

Um, Word 2.0 for Windows is perhaps 15 years old. How do we get from that to "the next day"?

And when will the EU come crashing down on Adobe for refusing to honour their PDF license with respect to Microsoft?

Maddog :

As usual, Gates is fudging the numbers. You can't ever expect real honesty from Micro$oft with Gates still calling the shots. And he still does.

Al :

I've had Vista for about a month so so now and I like it.

Dimitris :

In greece where i live if you add an S before Vista then you have SVista which is the greek work for
delete them! As for Silverlight who cares the world in the foreseeable future at least, will keep using Flash.

ru :

And ask how many Blue-Ray users are out there compared to how many own a PS3 but never use Blu-Ray. As far as Sony is concerned if you bought it use watch Blue-Ray movies regardless if you realy do or not. All companies use numbers to there advantage. But I know MS can't but others can.

ru :

Brian
My Great Great Grandpa had cool horse and buggy, I wish I could ride that around instead of the stupid car. Advancments in human life, do you use a computer and printer, pen and paper, or a hammer and chissal?
And if your Open Source buddies making the SilverLight client (moonlight) for linux and it is buggy and crappy then it is MS's fault? Not the ones who implmented and wrote the client. I know they will say MS gave them bad documentation and changed it every week.

Joe;

Once again, you da' man!

"That said, 100 million is an amazing number, given that Windows Vista has been in the mass market—meaning on new PCs—for less than a year. For an operating system panned by many reviewers and customers, Vista is successful as measured by licenses shipped. I've got to wonder: What would the number be if Vista were actually a hit?"

This is one of my very own questions and would like some sort of an answer, that is if it were possible.

Secondly;

"Even the 100 million licenses sold is a misstatement. Microsoft really means 100 million licenses shipped, which doesn't account for the number deployed or number downgraded to Windows XP. I'd like to know how many Windows XP licenses Microsoft shipped during the last six months, particularly to consumers or businesses that bought Windows Vista PCs. Now, that would be an interesting number."

Outstanding, and to say, inquiring minds would love to know, especially this mind of mine...

Piot :

From InformationWeek
http://www.informationweek.com/news/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=205210375&subSection=News

"Gates' statements at the 2003 and 2008 Consumer Electronics Shows thus reveal -- calculating roughly -- that Windows XP captured about 67% of the new PC market during its first year. Vista, by contrast, captured just 39%, or less than half, of new PC shipments in 2007."

100 million not so "amazing" now.

Is this microsoft-watch or microsoft-spin?

EMart :

Vista isn't as bad as everyone says. If you don't own it "today" and are going on what people had been saying in the beginning when it came out, it deserves a second look. People said the same thing about XP when it first came out too, now everyone loves XP, go figure.. I guess people like to complain...

Jeremy W :

Joe, were you expecting Gates to tell the truth?

Is water dry?

Are stones soft?

Does Gates tell the truth?

Apart from SEC filings for which a modicum of truth is required, everything that the Bloatfarm says should be regarded with extreme skepticism. ("The Wow is Now" anyone? How many believed this entirely discredited nonsense?)

Remember the 1.5MM Zunes that were "sold" in 2007 that are still being "sold" in 2008. Now they are at "please take this junk away" prices.

One must consider that each and every MSFT marketing announcement is in measure - large or small [often very large] false. The MSFT capacity of deception or disinformation is, by now, so large that everything that the Bloatmarketeers say must be haircut by 30-95% or more.

The contrast between MSFT pronouncements and those of its rival AAPL are stark. When AAPL issues an announcement or forecast, it is always conservative and its forecasts are regularly increased by analysts because the company is known for having a passion for meeting its numbers.

MSFT, on the other hand, has a well deserved reputation for obfuscation, dissembling, deception and deceit. (Remember the videos of Gates at the anti-trust trial where his memory was already Altzheimered?)

Anything and everything issued from MSFT should be regarded as false unless clear facts and reasoning are provided.

The Bloatfarm is, has been and probably will be managed by liars and cheats.

This announcement is consistent with that view.

TCY :

Oh Boy Jeremy you really spilled the beans just like
it is. look at thier bloated stock price.Old bald boob Ballmer has been trying to keep share holders
happy Microshaft have always been a bunch of liars and cheats

Brian :

@ru:
My Great Great Grandpa had cool horse and buggy,
Great!
I wish I could ride that around instead of the stupid car.
Then take a look at the Smart car:
http://www.freefoto.com/images/29/35/29_35_19---Smart-Car_web.jpg
Advancments [sic] in human life, do you use a computer and printer, pen and paper, or a hammer and chissal [sic]?
I use all of these... and also a spell-checker (which you might want to try)
And if your Open Source buddies
None of my buddies write open-source software for Moonlight. A lot of them are great pilots, though.
making the SilverLight client (moonlight) for linux and it is buggy and crappy then it is MS's fault?
No?
Not the ones who implmented [sic] and wrote the client.
Hey, you really should look into a spell checker. And isn't writing the client also a part of implementing it?
I know they will say MS gave them bad documentation and changed it every week.
I wouldn't know. I've never communicated with any of the Mono or Moonlight developers. Have you?

Brian :

@Mike:


Um, Word 2.0 for Windows is perhaps 15 years old. How do we get from that to "the next day"?
OK, I did rather condense my thoughts too much. But, for example, the code I wrote 15 (and even 29) years ago reflects the capabilities and languages of their day. And it was robust and reliable. I would be convinced that much of my 15-year-old code contains no useful functions for the needs and platforms of today... but you can rest assured that none of it is not insecure nor unreliable. And I hold Microsoft to just as high a standard, even though I've been sorely disappointed and lost hope ever since the DOS 4 and Word 2.0a days.
And when will the EU come crashing down on Adobe
I have never been invited to any of the EU, Adobe, or Microsoft meetings that pertain to this dispute (nor to any of their meetings on any subject at all, but that's beside the point). But I am flattered that you think me such an important and influential person as to be thought to know such a thing.
for refusing to honour their PDF license with respect to Microsoft?
Again, there is a lot going on behind closed doors. For some reason, Microsoft won't or can't follow the published PDF standard, and who is at fault is beyond any power of mine to discern.
The standard is at http://partners.adobe.com/public/developer/en/pdf/PDFReference16.pdf
Microsoft's download workaround is at http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/details.aspx?FamilyId=F1FC413C-6D89-4F15-991B-63B07BA5F2E5&displaylang=en
But the standard does exist, and Microsoft does offer a download to various versions of Office to enable PDF export. So the only real problem is "one-click" vrs. download-and-install-and-click. And nearly every non-Microsoft company and open-source project on Earth includes PDF export. So maybe the EU might think that Adobe's dispute with only one company is somehow less onerous than the one Microsoft company's disputes with everybody else who competes with them?
Does anyone else have any insights into the issues behind the Adobe and Microsoft PDF battle?


Brian :

@Mike:


Um, Word 2.0 for Windows is perhaps 15 years old. How do we get from that to "the next day"?
OK, I did rather condense my thoughts too much. But, for example, the code I wrote 15 (and even 29) years ago reflects the capabilities and languages of their day. And it was robust and reliable. I would be convinced that much of my 15-year-old code contains no useful functions for the needs and platforms of today... but you can rest assured that none of it is not insecure nor unreliable. And I hold Microsoft to just as high a standard, even though I've been sorely disappointed and lost hope ever since the DOS 4 and Word 2.0a days.
And when will the EU come crashing down on Adobe
I have never been invited to any of the EU, Adobe, or Microsoft meetings that pertain to this dispute (nor to any of their meetings on any subject at all, but that's beside the point). But I am flattered that you think me such an important and influential person as to be thought to know such a thing.
for refusing to honour their PDF license with respect to Microsoft?
Again, there is a lot going on behind closed doors. For some reason, Microsoft won't or can't follow the published PDF standard, and who is at fault is beyond any power of mine to discern.
The standard is at http@colon@//partners.adobe.com/public/developer/en/pdf/PDFReference16.pdf
Microsoft's download workaround is at http@colon@//www.microsoft.com/downloads/details.aspx?FamilyId=F1FC413C-6D89-4F15-991B-63B07BA5F2E5&displaylang=en
But the standard does exist, and Microsoft does offer a download to various versions of Office to enable PDF export. So the only real problem is "one-click" vrs. download-and-install-and-click. And nearly every non-Microsoft company and open-source project on Earth includes PDF export. So maybe the EU might think that Adobe's dispute with only one company is somehow less onerous than the one Microsoft company's disputes with everybody else who competes with them?
Does anyone else have any insights into the issues behind the Adobe and Microsoft PDF battle?


Hank :

Could 100 million users mean just that? Users, not licenses. One Family could have 5 users on one copy license on one computer. No?

Brian :

@Everyone:
My apologies for the double post. The first one was held for review, and I mistakenly thought that it was because of the URLs. But the second one was also held for review, and I'm not sure why.
@Joe Wilcox:
In any case, Joe, please feel free to delete the second of my two responses to Mike. I may have a lot of opinions, but I certainly don't wish to clog up your site with duplication!

Karl Weistock :

Is it true that if you run a Vista DVD backwards, you hear satanic messages?

AndrewLord :

@Karl:
That's nothing. If you play it forwards, it installs Vista. =)

Barry :

"Even the 100 million licenses sold is a misstatement. Microsoft really means 100 million licenses shipped, which doesn't account for the number deployed or number downgraded to Windows XP."

Actually, if you are using the Microsoft School Subscription licenses, you get shipped Vista, even though a lot of the schools I've heard from have no intention of installing Vista....yet. We have 450 licenses (Vista) of which 2 are installed for testing. We have no intention in the near-term of rolling-out Vista.

From a user perspective, it behaves differently but looks cool and isn't too difficult to navigate.

From a tech person's perspective, I don't like it. They've continued their trend to hide things which don't always need to be hidden, causing confusion for the person who is trying to configure it.

Jeff :

To Jeremy W:
Hey Jeremy, how many blogs and forums do you visit to post your "bloat" posts? After seeing you on ZDNET letting your jealousy of Microsoft flow on a regular basis, i wasn't surprised to find you on many forums posting the same web bloat. Leave some space on the web for others man.
As for the 37% that Vista did based on one poster's calculations, 37% is huge. The PC market is expanding not shrinking. When XP got over 50% of the market in it's first year, which i'm not sure is correct, the actual numbers of licenses shipped was smaller than Vista. So perhaps you are spinning it.
Why does everyone hate Microsoft so? Sure they play hardball but who doesn't in this business? IBM gets kudos from the Linux crowd who absolutely LOATHES Microsoft, but IBM makes MS look like ameteurs in the world of antitrust. Why the hypocrisy? Apple is now partnering with the largest tech monopoly the planet has ever known, AT&T, where is the hate there? MS did their time just like AT&T, and MS wasn't given anti trust exemption like AT&T was for so long and as SUN was when the Feds handed them a modern unix on a platter and gave McNeally the keys to the kingdom built on taxpayer money for over a decade...billions in taxpayer money built SUN and they are loved by the Linux camp. Ironic i would say. The linux folks tend to line up with the feds anyway and still get massive funding from the NSF.
Get over it people, this obvious jealousy of Microsoft is embarrassing to read for crying out loud.
I use Windows, problem free, free AV, free AntiMalware and have never had a virus. The problems with Vista were almost 99% 3rd party vendor's not being ready after having the most access and tools in history to build secure apps on Vista. It's funny the forums used to scream about Microsoft's security and now that Vista has proved to be more secure than OSX and any version of Linux (that is from the objective security industry reporting at a technical level, not some spin) you don't see the security related "bloat" posts anymore, now it's how Vista is not "compatible". That should be praised and lauded since MS let security be above profits and stuck to the new security model even knowing most vendors were not ready. People that work for major vendors in teh MS ecosystem said they blatantly waited and had everything they needed to be ready. They were not willing to put resources into the software that is the sole reason for their existence to begin with.
Vista is good, SP1 is good and Vista will be highly regarded by the end of 2008. Esp. the 64 bit version which screams on every machine i've tested.

pinball :

@Jeff:
You, too, can have "a modern unix on a platter." NetBSD, FreeBSD, and OpenBSD are all free (as in no charge) variants of the code that became known as Unix. Darwin, derived from FreeBSD 5.x, is the basis for MacOS X. The Linux kernal is "Unix-like," and both it and a wide variety of operating systems that have been built upon it are available, generally without charge.

Much of your beloved MicroSoft's code is even taken from FreeBSD.

While I do not dispute the merits of your complaints about government taking people's money by force to support software development, I do think that you should be more knowledgeable about the benefits derived from that support, rather than damning just one of its beneficiaries.

It's time to make your voice heard. Use the form at the bottom of this page to start your own linkfest. To submit to a linkfest, use the Ping Chooser. Want to know what linkfests are about? Check out The Art of Linkfesting. If you have any problems, call your Congressman immediately and tell them to send me lots of money. If that doesn't work, ask Bruce for help. Then do the Congress thing again just to be sure.

Gerrie Harman :

Please someone tell me how to restore my favorites,

I downloaded windows live on my windows 2003 XP and I hated it with a passion,
I get a new windows vista and I like it fine but that sorry good for nothing windows live is on it and now my favorites in my windows mail is gone and in going through search I see that windows live is in there,

How can I remove windows live from my new computer and restore my favorites back into windows mail, This computer I've had for two months and I am in tears

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