The prudent user will wait 6 to 8 months for the reviews to roll in before dropping a dime on Vista regardless of the actual release date. By Thanksgiving of 2007 we'll know if Micosoft will be feasting on turkey or crow.

Moose.. what a stupid stupid comment. What does waiting matter?

A) There are a million and a half reviews of Vista already, it has been RTM for weeks now and all the major players have reviewed it. There is NOTHING new to learn, what is to be known IS known.

B) Whether people buy it now or in 8 months will not change anything, Vista will be out, Vista will be adopted, Microsoft IS the leader in its field and people are not suddenly going to stop using Windows. How will waiting 8 months change people's minds, what new information could be released in that time that will affect the industry that greatly? Security holes? Random hangups? Come off it, that has happened in every version of Windows and it is STILL the only true player.

All that will change is SP1 being released in a years time (or so). There is no sense in waiting aside from putting off upgrading because:

A) You personally do not NEED to, and since XP is still fully supported, people do not NEED to immediately upgrade.

B) Holding off until full system upgrade plans, ie. current system is not capable of running Vista to its full extent.

Good Morning

My name is Larry, and I wonder what is happening with Vista RC1? I tried it as part of the �customer preview program�. And as of November 10th media programs are expiring, i.e.: Windows Movie Maker, Windows DVD Maker, Windows Media Center, and Windows media Player are giving errors that basically indicate your system is running out of resources. Windows DVD Maker was the first indicator, as I tried to make a DVD, it gave the error: �Not enough storage available to complete this task�, although I had 17 gig available. Has Microsoft just abandoned those who participated in the �customer preview program� or do they have a plan to reward those who have tested their product to this point and now have messed up operating systems? Thanks in advance for your response.

Larry Todd

"According to Microsoft financial statements, about 80 percent of revenue comes from OEM license sales."

Hmm... Seems odd that MS would openly harass the community who is responsible for approximately 80% of their revenue. The plan it seems is to discourage purchase of OEM Vista by harassing OEM customers who try to upgrade hardware more than once. Retail Vista customers will be entitled to as many hardware changes as they like.

The following is a quote from a Newegg review of Win XP Pro SP2b OEM that includes a coupon for a free upgrade to OEM Vista.

*"Buyer Beware

Pros: New O/S with the latest features and protections.

Cons: Memory Hog.

Other Thoughts: I contacted M/S with the number here and was directed to Vista marketing. I was told that if you purchase OEM versions of Vista (like the coupon is) you will experience a lot of difficulty upgrading your PC and using this O/S copy again. She also said retail copies of Vista should allow you to upgrade a single PC and keep on using it... if not abused."*

Pardon the previous rant, but to stay on topic I predict very low initial numbers for Vista adoption, at least half the speed of XP, if for no other reason than the continual barriers Microsoft themselves seem to keep throwing in the path of Users.

I mean c'mon guys. There is this internet thing now, and we're gonna find out about this kind of stuff.

I had the experience of betaing Vista all the way up to now. It seems to be working pretty well for a release date Operating System, however; a note of caution it is Virgin code meaning only after January will it really fall under the guns of the larger volumes of hacker communities and such, so only then will we know just how truly secure the OS really is. XP was the "most secure OS to date" when it released, but really it was one of the worst up til SP2. I think Sales will be a gradual process as stated above but primarily because a lot of people are going to wait for three reasons.

1. The OS is new, like all new OSs just falling into the production world it's not been through a lot of unexpected conditions as well as hasn't truly been hammered on by hackers, virus writers, script kiddies, etc. That being said it'll be a risky move at first. Many advanced and production level users will "sit back and watch the fireworks" wait for the first big patch to come through and only then buy the OS (Unless it sit undefeated for several months, which I think Microsoft would throw a HUGE party if they managed to pull that off. Not to mention computer enthusiast's world wide would be in shock as it's almost a joke to us about Windows security compared to some of the more secure OSs out there)

2. System setup, a lot of users are still moving to Windows XP only because 98/ME has had it's support discontinued. And many of them waited as long as they could there. In addition a lot of PCs will take one look at Vista and go into cardiac arrest, they simply are not hardware wise strong enough to run the OS properly. Until people are ready or forced to make the jump or replacing their PC with one that comes with Vista then people will sit back and not do the upgrade.

3. For the Cooperate level many companies simply don't see a reason to make the move. Corporations move very slowly in most cases when upgrading their computers. Many corporations are still in the progress of moving from 2000 to XP and thats over 5 years since release. when a company has 2000 computers to upgrade the OS on more then half which need a hardware upgrade to even use that OS at a reasonable level of performance it's only when the computers become so slow, unreliable, or simply fail do they upgrade. That being said it'll be very slow sailing on the corporate level for upgrades.

My predictions.
First Quarter will be slow as only the people avid to test the "released" Vista will pick it up, those who can afford not to drop a production Machine off line would Vista be hit with unexpected problems from hackers, virus's, etc.

Second Quarter will even slower as the avid users will already have their copies. Other users will still likely be watching to see what happens, a few will start migrating over but not the masses.

Third quarter sales will pick up some as more users who were waiting start jumping on the Vista boat (if things go well) some PC upgrades will also provide for sales for Vista.

Fourth quarter will be the Vista Boom, This is the season people upgrade/replace computers, people spend more money on retail in general, and is the likely time users will pick up the upgrade from upgrading their hardware. As well as those who didn't pick up Vista Third Quarter who waited will likely pick it up fourth quarter.

I'm a computer expect not a marketing expert this are my guesses from the technical side not from buisness trends and marketing fluctuations.

I must begin by saying I agree with Eric and meatofmoose. I have been using and helping others use Microsoft Operating Systems since DOS 3.3. I saw Windows 2.0 when it was a Program Switcher and less useful than DOS Shell. I wonder if HunterOfMoose has any Real World experience with Microsoft and its' products.

I've been telling my customers to buy a PC now or be prepared to wait AT LEAST 9 months and preferably a year. XP was a lot better after SP1 and Vista will be too.

I'm guessing it will take the Channel a year to adjust to the exhaustive Hardware Requirements of Windows Vista as well. Right now they have spent the last 5 years getting PC's below $100. A PC that can give us all Vista has to offer is pretty expensive right now. It will take a while to A) shift that Production capability and B) work out the kinks in the new OS.

We call those who use all the newest stuff living on the "Bleeding Edge" of Technology for a reason. There are always some, but I don't have to be one.

In response to Larry Todd -- who wrote:
"My name is Larry, and I wonder what is happening with Vista RC1?" Larry, RC1 and also RC2 expire and should no longer be used once the actual OS has been released. In fact, I believe you will have to uninstall it before you can install the release version.

I read a good review recently and i agree with the first comments, there isn't much more to learn as regards to what the Operating System will contain, rather just experiences which will tell Microsoft and of course US what the OS is really like.

Btw the Review was http://www.winxperts.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=2069

Moosehunter,

Evidently you haven't been in the data processing arena long enough to realize that all of the TESTING in the world is absolutely not even close to the world of PRODUCTION. Once a million more fingers get into the product and it goes into production on a 24x7 schedule then and only then will we see whether Vista is good enough to stand up on its own

All beta versions of Vista all have debugging software installed and included in the OS. This software eats up ram, and can make Vista unstable. It's there for a purpose. Thus, the title "Beta". This instability can/will cause problems with any programs you run. And obviously, the resources it's using will cause the system to run sluggish.

Common Sense

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