Don't Expect Windows 7 for Back to School
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News Analysis. Rumors of a May Windows 7 Release Candidate mean it's the holidays or bust for Microsoft and its partners. |
Earlier today, March 26, a Windows 7 Release Candidate page appeared on Microsoft's TechNet site. The page, which is now gone, listed a publish date of "May," strongly suggesting that Microsoft won't issue the RC in April as many people expected, me among them. Neowin.net has a screenshot.
I'm skeptical that the posting was accidental. Call me a conspiracy theorist, but I've covered Microsoft for too long to believe the brief posting is anything but intentional. Microsoft executives can claim plausible deniability without ever saying anything about the release schedule. There needn't now be a blog post saying, "Whoops, we won't make April like everyone expected even though we never committed to April."
Meanwhile, everyone gets the message that they have to wait longer, and Microsoft gets lots of fresh, free publicity for the operating system. If I were a conniving SOB (yeah, yeah, so maybe I am), a leak would be my chosen method for disseminating the May release candidate information. The timing is right. April is next week. Blogs and news sites spend too much time fantasizing about Windows release schedules, which is reason enough for Microsoft to be as indirect as possible.
Seeing as how I'm in such a conspiracious mood today, there is another plausible scenario. The release candidate page is clearly ready to go. Maybe it was accidentally posted, but with a date of May instead of April. If there is going to be one error, why not two?
So what does it all mean? Well, it's not good, whether the RC comes sooner or later. Windows 7 Beta 2 was an impressive piece of work. Kudos to Microsoft developers for cutting most of the Vista cancer out of Windows. Seven is lean, clean and pristine. So it's disappointing that Microsoft has lost its way, by making way, way, way too many post-public-beta changes—many to the user interface. The changes easily would explain a May release candidate—assuming it's really Microsoft's plan. I still wouldn't bet against April or June.
In two separate blog posts (here and here), Microsoft revealed scads of last-minute UI and other tweaks. They're unacceptable so late in the development process. It's not good design practice. The Windows 7 development team should listen to Bill Buxton, principal researcher for Microsoft Research, who offers very good advice about sketching UI designs. I'm simply stunned by all this mucking around with UI decisions that Microsoft should have finalized many months ago.
Quite possibly, all these changes are reason for a May release candidate, which makes it increasingly unlikely Microsoft could certify the code gold—that is, released to manufacturing—before June 30. I had assumed that Microsoft wanted to RTM Windows 7 before the end of its fiscal year, which would be barely time enough to make the late back-to-school rush. Because of the large number of changes between the public beta and release candidate, Microsoft must allow ample time for testing. I figure four to six weeks minimum. Three reasons:
- There will be need to search for last-minute minor bugs—or the dreaded killer bug that could delay RTM.
- Microsoft needs to provide partners enough time to finalize testing of applications and hardware drivers for Windows 7 compatibility. It's better if the operating system ships a few weeks later so that the ecosystem fully supports the software.
- OEMs will get some lead time qualifying Windows 7 for their PCs and testing custom images.
Even if the Windows 7 Release Candidate came on April 1, June 30 would be a difficult RTM target given all these damn changes. Best-case scenario then would be RTM in July or August, depending on release candidate availability. So much for back to school.
Late summer would normally allow plenty of time for OEMs to qualify and ship PCs for the holidays. But the economy is a big wrinkle. Going into fourth-quarter 2008, OEMs cut back inventory during a time when they would normally stock the shelves. Their action sent nuclear winter through the ODM channel. In November, for example, Intel warned that revenues would be 20 percent lower than forecast. Other component makers suffered, too.
If OEMs are smart, they'll run lower inventories throughout most of 2009. The question for them and ODMs: What if Windows 7 gives a big lift to PC sales? Even now, PC manufacturers should be planning and even making their component orders for holiday 2009. But the global recession and uncertainty about Windows 7's release and extend of PC sales uplift make future planning a betting game. Do they bet big on Windows 7, or be conservative? The decision process would be easier, if not for Windows 7 changes and likelihood of a May RTM.
[Please send your tips or rumors to watchtips at gmail.com.]
Comments (20)
Enough with all the whining about the changes.
1. The number is minimal and many are somewhat cosmetic.
2. That's why you release beta software... to get feedback... to make changes. Duh!
I'm historically an MS basher - favoring Ubuntu and Macs but I see no problems with the announced changes.
Posted by mikey | March 26, 2009 4:50 PM
Enough with all the whining about the changes.
1. The number is minimal and many are somewhat cosmetic.
2. That's why you release beta software... to get feedback... to make changes. Duh!
I'm historically an MS basher - favoring Ubuntu and Macs but I see no problems with the announced changes.
Posted by mikey | March 26, 2009 4:51 PM
They sure as heck better have it out by Christmas selling season. If not, they are going to look like bigger buffoons than ever.
Posted by TonyT | March 26, 2009 4:56 PM
Joe,
Have you seen the Laptop Hunters: Lauren commercial?
http://www.microsoft.com/windows/watchtheads/video/lauren/default.aspx
"I'm just not cool enough to be a Mac person."
Obviously, the $699.99 price tag says a lot even if it's not an Apples to Apples (no pun intended) comparison, but I would say Lauren's quote above hits the nail on the head. I for one hope to see W7 released to solid reviews, which should help turn the desk/laptop tide back, at least for a while, in M$ favor.
If only M$ could have gotten WM7 out the door before Christmas this year, then I would say they're starting to really hit on all eight cylinders.
Either way, M$ is finally starting to put together some solid advertising. I watch virtually no TV, so I have no idea how much of this stuff is showing up in prime time. As I've said before however, I do think the M$ marketing machine will kick off in full force once W7 ships.
Posted by jay | March 26, 2009 5:00 PM
By the end of June, W7 make look as quaint and dated as MSDOS did in 1989.
The world does not stand still while Ballmer and his crew futz around trying to refold yesterday's newspaper...
Posted by Jeff | March 26, 2009 5:24 PM
For the fifth time, UI changes are by definition minor changes...any developer can tell you that...
Posted by Evan | March 26, 2009 5:45 PM
"Even if Windows 7 Release Candidate came on April 1, June 30 would be a difficult RTM target given all these damn changes."
The UI changes Microsoft made to Windows 7 were trivial. I doubt it took more than a couple first-year probies a whole week to make them all, even given MS's bureaucratic overhead. For that matter, most of the changes from Vista to 7 are relatively trivial, so I'm suspicious of their release scheduling in the first place.
I'm guessing they're dragging it out to make it look as though they're actually doing something, not because they need the time. As soon as 7 is released, that'll be the end of Vista sales, which has got to grind at least some people in the hierarchy. Who knows whose bonuses and reputations depend on what?
Personally, I couldn't care less if you paid me. I've got a viable and secure OS that doesn't require me to disrupt operations according to some marketing weenie's schedule. I'm just piping up to say those who worry about Microsoft's release schedules could probably better expend their energies on something that matters. Corporate shenanigans with patents comes to mind.
Posted by KGWagner | March 26, 2009 7:00 PM
"Even if Windows 7 Release Candidate came on April 1, June 30 would be a difficult RTM target given all these damn changes."
The UI changes Microsoft made to Windows 7 were trivial. I doubt it took more than a couple first-year probies a whole week to make them all, even given MS's bureaucratic overhead. For that matter, most of the changes from Vista to 7 are relatively trivial, so I'm suspicious of their release scheduling in the first place.
I'm guessing they're dragging it out to make it look as though they're actually doing something, not because they need the time. As soon as 7 is released, that'll be the end of Vista sales, which has got to grind at least some people in the hierarchy. Who knows whose bonuses and reputations depend on what?
Personally, I couldn't care less if you paid me. I've got a viable and secure OS that doesn't require me to disrupt operations according to some marketing weenie's schedule. I'm just piping up to say those who worry about Microsoft's release schedules could probably better expend their energies on something that matters. Corporate shenanigans with patents comes to mind.
Posted by KGWagner | March 26, 2009 7:01 PM
"Even if Windows 7 Release Candidate came on April 1, June 30 would be a difficult RTM target given all these damn changes."
The UI changes Microsoft made to Windows 7 were trivial. I doubt it took more than a couple first-year probies a whole week to make them all, even given MS's bureaucratic overhead. For that matter, most of the changes from Vista to 7 are relatively trivial, so I'm suspicious of their release scheduling in the first place.
I'm guessing they're dragging it out to make it look as though they're actually doing something, not because they need the time. As soon as 7 is released, that'll be the end of Vista sales, which has got to grind at least some people in the hierarchy. Who knows whose bonuses and reputations depend on what?
Personally, I couldn't care less if you paid me. I've got a viable and secure OS that doesn't require me to disrupt operations according to some marketing weenie's schedule. I'm just piping up to say those who worry about Microsoft's release schedules could probably better expend their energies on something that matters. Corporate shenanigans with patents comes to mind.
Posted by KGWagner | March 26, 2009 7:04 PM
Sorry for all the repeats. The site has trouble responding unless you have all the spyware enabled.
Posted by KGWagner | March 26, 2009 7:05 PM
Spyware??
I have no trouble getting my comments posted, and I don’t have any “spyware” enabled.
Posted by Lawrence D'Oliveiro | March 26, 2009 8:12 PM
Hey joe, what software does your server run?
is it some of microshafts mess? the infernal server
error to many double posts
Posted by hiwaystar | March 26, 2009 8:53 PM
The launch will be on the 7th July. The release of Windows 7 on 7/7 is going to be irresistable to the Windows Marketing execs, especially as 7/7 is the same in US or European date format...
Posted by Peter Schmidt | March 27, 2009 12:56 AM
"what software does your server run?
is it some of microshafts mess? the infernal server
error to many double posts"
Fail. According to diagnostics its linux/apache
According to netcraft, MicrosoftWatch stopped running microsoft products 2005
Posted by James | March 27, 2009 3:29 AM
I think an appropriate release date for Windows 7 would be 12/7. Quite an appropriate date for a Windows product.
Posted by TonyT | March 27, 2009 8:37 AM
KGWagner said:
"I'm guessing they're dragging it out to make it look as though they're actually doing something, not because they need the time. As soon as 7 is released, that'll be the end of Vista sales, which has got to grind at least some people in the hierarchy. Who knows whose bonuses and reputations depend on what?"
Totally believe that. All Microsoft did was take Vista and tweak it. Threw in enough GUI changes and voila: Windows 7. It is a farce to even call it Windows 7. I would have more respect for the name had they chosen: Windows 6.1. Because that is truly what it is. Like Windows 3.1 was to Windows 3.0.
Posted by TonyT | March 27, 2009 8:41 AM
@James - According to Netcraft, Microsoft runs Linux too.
http://searchdns.netcraft.com/?position=limited&host=microsoft.com
I wouldn't read too much into their data, they are often wrong because of caching proxies etc.
Microsoft Watch do not return a Server header in their responses, and either way, you can change it to whatever you want to make it harder for people to see what you are running.
I got a friend to do some investigation and it looks like the Linux box you see is some sort of router/proxy. From memory, the error from posting a message is a 502 Bad Gateway error which means that the server BEHIND the Linux box died. I cannot guess what OS is behind that, but in my experience 99% of web site slowness is down to the coding of the application, not the box it is running on. My guess is they have a funky spam detection algorithm which is a little slow.
Posted by billybob | March 27, 2009 9:17 AM
So Joe, I don't think you really covered why Vista7 might be released June/July now instead of May? Some have suggested the reason is more IU changes, even you Joe have hinted at that a bit. I have to agree with Evan on this one, the User Interface changes will be minor, and will not be the reason for a later delay than the expected release time.
So I suggest the real reason is the problems M$ is running into with the EU with its Internet Exploder 8 bundling. M$ is trying to determine what it can get away with, or put over, without being fined heavily with the EU before releasing Vista7, its as simple as that.
Posted by Chips B Malroy | March 28, 2009 12:11 PM
Was enjoying comments until the under twelves got onto the site with the so uncool m$ signs.
So 90s
Posted by Dave | March 31, 2009 3:22 PM
I am not happy that Windows 7 will not meet back to school shopping, but I never really expected it. I am really hoping that they announce the buy now, free upgrade later plan they normally do.
I am going off to college in the fall, so I need a laptop (especially as a CS major). Vista is decent, but I really want Windows 7.
Do not call Windows 7 a minor upgrade. Yeah, on the surface, it looks like a UI tweak, but from all I have read on it, they did some serious trimming under the hood. Windows 7 will be a lot faster and more efficient than Vista.
I would go as far to say that Windows 7 will be just as popular and widespread as XP. All the comparables are there.
Posted by Matthew | April 3, 2009 8:11 PM