Microsoft updated me on the whole Zune price-reduction news from yesterday. Just to recap: The Zune HD 16GB and Zune HD 32GB were both $20 off on the online Microsoft store, with the devices also receiving stiff discounts on other retailer sites such as Amazon.com. There was debate online about whether the discounts were a totally innocuous occurrence, or if it was a deliberate price reduction ahead of a tech refresh.

Microsoft got back to me late on Feb. 8:

"The current prices for Zune HD on ZuneOriginals.net are available for a limited time," a Microsoft spokesperson wrote. "It also appears that some online retailers are offering additional promotions and price cuts on Zune HD devices. We have not lowered the ESRP for Zune HD."

I assume that "ESRP" is the equivalent of "ERP," or estimated retail price. Anyway, if you take the above statement at face value, it seems as if this is more a promotion than anything else. Some bloggers and pundits were suggesting yesterday that Microsoft was lowering the price of the Zune HD because it planned to produce a "Zune Phone" or similar device at the Mobile World Congress next week.

Does this price-reduction-as-promotion mean that Zune won't be a part of whatever device Microsoft announces on Feb. 15? I don't think it would appreciably reduce the chances of Zune functionality being somehow integrated into whatever software the company decides to announce on that date.

That being said, I still don't think that Microsoft is going to put Zune branding front and center with this next mobile release, even if it uses Zune software for media playing or even PC syncing. Zune's market share isn't nearly strong enough to support what many see as Microsoft's Hail Mary pass in the mobile division, and it would likely turn off at least a segment of the business users that Microsoft needs if it wants its next mobile iteration to succeed.

I'm betting that Microsoft will demonstrate Mobile 7 at the event, and announce it for release sometime late in the second half of 2010. I'm discounting the chances of the Feb. 15 announcement being a Mobile 6.5.x release because Microsoft's already pushing Mobile 6.5.3 into the ecosystem; a radically altered version right on top of a tweaked (separate) version would represent too muddled an initiative. Whether Mobile 7 is announced along with a "Project Pink"-branded smartphone is something I'm leaving at 50/50 odds.

But then again, I also bet against the Saints on Sunday, so take my predictive powers with a grain of salt.