Did You Spend Less Green on Black Friday?

[Editor's Note: This post was intended for Sunday afternoon. Due to a blogging system error, I had to rewrite more than 60 percent of the post. See what happens when I don't use Windows Live Writer?]

Yesterday, ComScore released online retail figures for Thanksgiving Day and "Black Friday." I suppose not-as-bad beats worse-than-expected; sales were gloomy rather than gloomier. Online sales have always greatly grown, at least since analysts started tracking them, so Black Friday's 1 percent year-over-year gains are discouraging.

GOT A TIP OR RUMOR?

"Early reports suggest that Black Friday sales in retail stores were slightly better than anticipated in this depressed retail climate, and that performance apparently extended to the online channel, which saw sales on Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday combined increase 2 percent versus year ago," ComScore Chairman Gian Fulgoni said in a statement.

"It's probable that on Black Friday consumers responded positively to the very aggressive promotions and discounts being offered in retail stores, so it will be important to see how they respond to similarly attractive deals being offered online on Cyber Monday, the traditional kick-off to the online holiday shopping season," he said.

There Were Plenty of Promos
I climbed a mountain with friends on Nov. 28, rather than doing my usual shopping the Black Friday shoppers, seeing who was buying what from where. Instead, I tracked online sales and occasionally checked e-mail while climbing; some retailers seemingly sent out hourly updates.

TigerDirect was especially aggressive, calling the day after Thanksgiving "Pink Friday." I got periodic e-mails, several on Nov. 28, with ongoing updates on sales. From a Friday morning e-mail:

Our best deal arrived a little late but it's finally here. Brand New Full-Featured Acer Laptops with 15.4" Widescreen, DVD Burner, Wifi, 1gb RAM, 120GB Hard Drive, and a 1yr warranty. Plus, you get a Bonus D-Link Wireless Router. And you get CA Internet Security Suite FREE. All of this for just $399.99 after mail-in rebate. Hurry and get your order in now!

I don't know how the Acer laptop sold on Friday, but TigerDirect still has inventory available today. The computer comes with Windows Vista Home Premium. Starting price was $619 minus $179.02 instant savings for a real price of $438.99 before a $39.99 mail-in rebate.

Canon literally spammed me with its holiday offers, but Nikon's e-mail promo offered better deals. Canon offered 15 percent off refurbished cameras. I highly recommend that everyone buy PC refurbs. I'm not as enthusiastic about refurbished electronics. Nikon had offered the D60 with $125 in instant savings for a price of $574. Amazon has the camera for $531, with an 18-55mm lens.

Sony offered $100 to $600 off notebooks—and discounts are still available through today. TZ models are discounted $500.

Amazon beckoned in a Nov. 28 promotional e-mail: "Don't spend Black Friday jostling for parking spots. Instead, visit Amazon.com to find great Black Friday deals." I found the actual featured deals to be unimpressive. I also got Black Friday discounter e-mail from B&H Photo, Dell, Dell Outlet and HP, among other retailers.

This is Microsoft Watch, so suppose it's worth looking at Microsoft Black Friday deals. Maybe I blinked, but I didn't find any big discounts over at the Microsoft Store. Microsoft dropped Zune prices ahead of the holiday and released Xbox 360 bundles, including one with Kung Fu Panda.

My dad used to get socks, ties and underwear he never wanted for Christmas. Where's that Microsoft Office stocking stuffer? Well Dad could get that stocking stuffer if he had a Mac. Microsoft offered Office 2008 Media Edition for 75 percent off on Nov. 27 and 28—and there's still a 50 percent off deal available.

But Where Were the Great Deals?
I spent a couple hours surveying online retailers last night, trying to get a sense of discounts—most of which will persist at least through today. I found most of the deals to be only modestly impressive, with discounts averaging about 15 percent. I expected much more considering economic conditions and the risk that retailers could be sapped with inventory should consumers cut spending.

There appear to be two factors at work, explaining the quality of discounts:

• Many retailers, online and offline, didn't wait until Black Friday to start offering deals.
• Deep discounts aren't racking up sales; consumers are holding back.

"Companies are so scared of inventory that they got naked before being asked to," said Roger Kay, Endpoint Technologies' president, referring to early discounts and those extended on Black Friday. "The units moved but at the expense of profits."

Those profits may be needlessly running down a retail sales drainpipe. Perhaps retailer reaction to this phenomenon explains why technology product deals were good but not great for Black Friday. The day before Thanksgiving, NPD released startling survey findings. First, context setting: In April, 84 percent of consumers surveyed by NPD believed that the economy was either in recession or moving in that direction. The number reached 91 percent in November.

"Off-hand, that 7 percent increase may not sound like a lot," Marshal Cohen, NPD's chief industry analyst, said in a statement. "But when you turn the spending faucet of 14 million people off, that 7 percent from April to November represents trillions of dollars."

Surely, discounts and rebates would draw consumers to spend, particularly during the holidays. But NPD said that the November survey shows that consumers are in "no rush to spend." In July, 28 percent of consumers said that sales incentives, such as discounts, would affect spending; 29 percent in November. Looked at differently: In July 34 percent of consumers said sales discounts would make no difference—and 35 percent in November.

"Those huge sales that were designed to lure the customer in really don't seem to have had much of an impact," Marshal said in a statement. "They aren't bringing the consumers back in to shop."

Uh-oh. Did you find any good deals this holiday sales weekend—or not? Did you spend more because of them? Please share in comments.

NPD should release brick-and-mortar retail Black Friday sales data in the next couple of days. Meanwhile, for online, today is the big day. It's Cyber Monday. The online sales day really is a retailer construct in response to Black Friday. Cyber Monday is less significant for actual online sales than for what it foreshadows about them. According to ComScore, Cyber Monday sales typically vary no more than a few percentage points from the season's result. So today is a microcosm for all holiday 2008 online sales.

Flat or declining sales could cause all retailers, online and offline, to fear, whereby they more deeply discount or bundle products. While NPD concluded that discounts aren't drawing consumers to spend yet, surely there comes a point when deals are just too compelling to resist.

"OEMs had already throttled back on orders to the ODMs trying to keep inventory low," said Roger Kay. If seasonal sales are weak, retailers will "move what's there at almost any cost because, as you know, inventory is fish."

[Please send your tips or rumors to watchtips at live.com].