Leopard is One Stubborn Cat
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Microsoft isn't the only company announcing product delays. Apple has pushed back the release of Mac OS X 10.5 (aka Leopard) until October. There's nothing like a good, uh, cat fight, and Apple has set one up for the autumn between Leopard and Vista. |
The Leopard delay is really two: one real and another perceived. Apple had indicated that Leopard would ship in spring, but there had been growing expectation bits wouldn't drop until the June developer conference. Meaning: Many Mac enthusiasts and developers already assumed that Leopard would ship late—and Apple let them do just that.
But October?
No doubt, there are a few folks at Microsoft snickering with delight. Apple has used Vista delays for counter marketing. Now, it's Apple delaying its flagship operating system by about six months.
But Apple is the apple of the media's eye. The brand is resurgent, a stark contrast to endless 1990s stories about Apple's imminent demise. So strong is the brand, Apple has kind of a protective coating, like the wax supermarkets put on fruit. This coating will protect Apple from much of the news and blog backlash. Microsoft product delays are headlines; Apple's Leopard reset may be more of a footnote. Those folks taking initial delight in Apple's plight may see their glee turn to frustration, when the Mac maker gets softer reaction than would Microsoft in similar circumstance.
That's not to say the delay is insignificant. October release means that Leopard will miss the back-to-school buying season and come out just as Vista finally catches some wind. Microsoft chose an absolutely dreadful time—from a yearly sales cycle—to release Windows Vista. But Vista's sails should start catching some tailwind from back-to-school sales. Meanwhile, Leopard will be fettered.
Apple could offer some upgrade guarantee for people buying in later summer and early autumn, but the big benefit—from computer sales and software revenue perspectives—would come from Leopard on Macs and store shelves.
Bottom line: Holiday 2007 is going to be a nasty cat fight between Leopard and Vista. Leopard may have big claws, but Window's huge marketshare gives Vista greater girth.
Wall Street's reaction to the Leopard delay will be interesting. For example, in February, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster predicted Vista would have little impact on Mac sales. But he based his analysis in part on the expectation that Apple would ship Leopard as expected.
What about iLife and iWork? The iLife suite is the Mac's crown jewel—what sets it apart from Windows PCs. While Windows Vista has greatly improved digital media features, there is nothing quite like iLife on the PC. Microsoft relies on its development partners to provide digital lifestyle applications, but they add to OEMs' cost of PCs. Apple rationalizes iLife's cost as part of research and development. The iLife suite adds tremendous value to the Mac, for which the customer pays nothing extra. Even if OEMs could cobble together a comparable offering, they would do so at extra expense, narrowing their margins.
Apple released no new version of iLife or iWork in January as expected and as had been past practice. Some insider sites, like ThinkSecret, have indicated that the software's absence had to do with features tied to Leopard. Apple could cede some marketing and sales to Vista, if iLife doesn't release until Leopard ships. Now, or very soon, would be a good time for Apple to pop out iLife and iWork.
The Leopard delay relates to iPhone, according to an Apple statement issued late yesterday afternoon: "iPhone contains the most sophisticated software ever shipped on a mobile device, and finishing it on time has not come without a price—we had to borrow some key software engineering and QA resources from our Mac OS X team."
The statement continues: "We now plan to show our developers a near final version of Leopard at the conference, give them a beta copy to take home so they can do their final testing, and ship Leopard in October. We think it will be well worth the wait. Life often presents tradeoffs, and in this case we're sure we've made the right ones."
The October release date is interesting because of the different vernacular used by Apple compared to Microsoft. When Apple says October, that's exactly what it means. When, in discussing a product road map, Microsoft sets a date, it typically means release to manufacturing. So, real availablity typically trails by a few weeks for volume licensing and a couple months for retail and PCs.
Some of the same logistical constraints apply to Apple , although it historically has needed less time to stock store shelves and load up computers than Microsoft. June availability of a "near final version" would be about right for October delivery. Past example: Apple certified Mac OS X 10.3, or Panther, gold master around early October 2003, and shipped the software three weeks later.
Apple's priority of iPhone over Leopard is more than about the phone releasing on time in June as scheduled. The commitment means that, for developers, Apple chose iPhone over Mac OS X. The developer conference would have been the right venue for Leopard's launch. Instead, the event will be the launch venue for iPhone, assuming June 11 availability, or thereabouts. If Apple really wants to "think different," each developer goody bag should include a new, free iPhone along with the Leopard beta.
Related Posts:
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- Apple to Developers: Get a Mac, Microsoft Watch, March 19, 2007
- Go Beyond Vista, Microsoft Watch, Feb. 18, 2007
- Jobs Calls for DRM Freedom, Microsoft Watch, Feb. 6, 2007
- This Year's Other Big Developer Conference, Microsoft Watch, Feb. 6, 2007
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Comments (33)
Leopard looks as though it's taking position to be "The New OS that really works" just in time for Christmas buying, all set and ready to take down its Windows prey.
Judging from Vista PC offerings, vendors are having a hard time, at least here in Canada offering modestly priced notebooks and desktops with anything other than Vista Basic--which everyone knows does little more than boot the PC.
Given that to get any Windows PC now means spending a lot more money for reasonable performance than in the XP days, Macs look like a viable price-equivalent choice for mid-range and high-end buyers. If we're gonna get skinned alive price-wise, we might as well skin a Leopard, so to speak.
Looks like this is one Leopard that will truly be ready to pounce on Vista this fall!
Posted by PolarUpgrade | April 13, 2007 11:36 AM
PolarUpgrade - the capabilities of a laptop don't dictate which version gets installed. It affects if the laptop can run Aero glass or not. If you think running Aero Glass is going to be the deciding factor for deciding whether to buy an Apple or a PC then I think you're wrong. Look at the price equivalents between Apple hardware and PC manufacturers. Apple doesn't have any magic here to make the same hardware do more.
Joe - please don't start using "Leopard Reset" to mean "Leopard delay". The Longhorn Reset was a reset in the development schedule and a change in requirements. This is completely different - and just a delay because of other priorities for other products.
Posted by notwrong | April 13, 2007 1:01 PM
seriously dude. stop smoking the apple crack.
Posted by paul | April 13, 2007 1:20 PM
It's ironic that the Windows-users who had nothing negative to say about Microsoft's 4 year delay in getting Vista completed, are all crowing about a relatively insignificant delay of 4 months for Apple's Leopard.
Apple probably could have released an unfinished operating system , as Microsoft did with Vista, in order to meet the deadline it imposed on itself. But that's not the way Apple does business.
Posted by Harvey Lubin | April 13, 2007 1:29 PM
"Now, it's Apple delaying its flagship operating system by about six months."
Just to be clear, Apple could have shipped in June and still met it's Spring 2007 objective. Just doing basic math, that puts the Leopard delay to be a 4 month delay. Yes, that's disappointing, but let's keep this in perspective with regards to how the press handles this. If Apple repeatedly missed consecutive deadlines, removed the most important features and comes in 4 years late, then we can start making comparisons to Microsoft. ;-)
Posted by Steve | April 13, 2007 1:39 PM
"Apple chose iPhone over Mac OS X."
Not quite, remember that the iPhone will be running a version of Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard.
In reality Apple refocused it's OS development team's efforts to complete the part of Leopard that needed to remain on schedule in order to facilitate the iPhone's successful launch. Rather then trying to complete the entire project in the original timeframe and ship an uncompleted product.
With Leopard, Apple is utilizing the solid foundation it has established with Mac OS X, to enter new platforms, including the Apple TV, iPhone, (both of which run Mac OS X) and probably more products in the future.
When you consider the sheer amount of engineering work that goes into creating a single code base for 32 and 64 bit PowerPC and x86 desktop and server operating systems, then ask the same code base to run on a set-top box, and a smartphone/multimedia player, which uses yet another architecture, and in addition introduce new features and applications, it becomes understandable why Apple decided to push the release back several months.
Also we are not privy to the details of the deal between Apple and AT&T, there may be contractual penalties for Apple if the iPhone is not released on time.
Finally you can't draw direct comparisons between the delay of Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard with Microsoft's Windows Vista.
Vista was delayed many, many times, and replaced a joke of an operating system more than six years old. In contrast, Mac OS X 10.4 Tiger is less than two years old, and is widely acclaimed for its features, stability, and ease of use.
Overall is the delay of Leopard disappointing? Yes. Is it a catastrophe or a sign Apple is doomed or can't continue to innovate?
Not a chance.
Posted by Brendan McKinley | April 13, 2007 2:00 PM
Single code base for everything that you mentioned plus many many more has been achieved from microsoft along the XP time frame. Vista was delayed (not for six years as you mention) for specific reasons XP SP2 (which is more of an SP actually), IE7, but of course these excuses does not count for Microsoft, simply because it's Microsoft.
Posted by evan | April 13, 2007 2:57 PM
Apple had to rethink Leopard.
Vista has it's new pretty interface and better security. ;)
(not great but better than XP)
Linux has stability and 3D Desktops (Beryl)
(open source guys add new features like crazy)
Parallel & VMware have virtualization down.
Leopard had ?
So, Apple adds virtualization, 3D Desktops and slaps on a new pretty interface
and ships in Oct.
Posted by DirtySpy | April 13, 2007 3:01 PM
I don't get it. People don't judge everyone the same across the board. It's called "Leopard Reset" for apple and "Vista Delay" for Microsoft. Apparently "Many Mac enthusiasts and developers already assumed that Leopard would ship late" so it was no big deal, but everyone is so horrified that Vista came late. They say Leopard is such a great OS and Vista is buggy and nothing new. Get your ignorant heads out of your butts.
Posted by BigFuzz | April 13, 2007 3:18 PM
The "resurgent" Mac's USA market share has skyrocketed all the way to 4.7%, and their worldwide market share has surged to 2.4%. Leopard was never a real threat to Vista, and now is even less so.
Posted by TomT | April 13, 2007 7:55 PM
Joe writes: "Apple could offer some upgrade guarantee for people buying in later summer and early autumn"
At least, being 'Leopard compatible' won't need to be qualified.
Posted by HG | April 14, 2007 2:04 AM
People have saying for ages now that Apple's new OS "leopard" is sooo good that Vista won't stand a chance.
Here is a quote from Joe: "Apple's priority of iPhone over Leopard is more than about the phone releasing on time in June as scheduled. The commitment means that, for developers, Apple chose iPhone over Mac OS X. The developer conference would have been the right venue for Leopard's launch. Instead, the event will be the launch venue for iPhone, assuming June 11 availability, or thereabouts. If Apple really wants to "think different," each developer goody bag should include a new, free iPhone along with the Leopard beta."
This shows that even Apple themselves think that "Leopard" is not as important as iPhone, and yet all the MAC users think that OSX "Leopard" is !!!
Apple has made a critical business decision that says that "iPhone is MORE important" why ... more money that's why, OSX Leopard is only a small customer base and Apple knows it, that's why they have gone for the much wider customer base that would be "iPhone".
Mac users you have been dudded !!
Posted by Neil | April 14, 2007 4:11 AM
Joe
Diverting off the topic just a bit Google is buying Double Click.
All the BS about microsoft buying it and you were WRONG !!!
With comments like this one from you: " Rumors are circulating that Microsoft could acquire DoubleClick. Whether that is true or not, Microsoft is ready to spend what it takes to catch up with Google."
Please note that word people "Rumors" that is what Joe based his "story" on rumours.
I specially like the bit "Whether that is true or not".
You built a whole story around a rumour that was "not" true !
You are not a journalist at all, you are a sensationalist ! !
What a load of crap ! !
Posted by Neil | April 14, 2007 6:36 AM
To evan:
I never said Vista was delayed for six years. I only stated that Vista replaced an operating system which was six years old.
Actually Microsoft's various operating systems are not built around the same code base.
The various versions of Windows CE/Mobile, including the new 6.0 release, use a radically different code base then Windows XP and Windows Vista, and are not on the same development cycle as their desktop counterparts. The same is true for the Xbox.
Microsoft Windows Server 2003 used an entirely different code base then Windows 2000/XP. After the Longhorn client reset, Microsoft decided to use the Windows Server 2003 code as the starting point for Vista.
The upcoming "Longhorn" Server is on a different development tree, and release schedule then Vista.
Microsoft sells and maintains separate, incompatible, 32 & 64 bit versions of Windows XP & Vista, along with Windows Server 2003. These disparate products each require unique drivers, and software.
In contrast, Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard Client and Server will be released at the same time, and will be quad universal binaries.
This means one disc will contain the code for the 32 & 64 bit PowerPC and x86 architectures. Allowing 64-bit systems to simultaneously run both 32 & 64 bit applications natively, while legacy 32-bit systems are ensured full compatibility with future software.
Third party developers will also be able create quad universal binaries of their applications, all from the same code base, and development tree.
This makes maintaining the OS and applications much simpler for developers and users, since their will only be one version to develop, test, and deploy for.
Posted by Brendan McKinley | April 14, 2007 2:34 PM
Brendan,
If what you say is true than simply MSDN library lies when explicitly states "... Windows XP Embedded and Windows XP are built on the same stable code base of Microsoft Windows NT and Windows 2000....". On other sections it also states that windows 2003 also shares the same code base with XP...
Posted by Evan | April 15, 2007 6:19 AM
Vista is a dismal effort, and you don't even have to compare it to Mac OS X to determine that. Vista sucks in a vacuum. Like nearly all previous Microsoft products, it's unreliable, unsecurable, poorly thought-out, and accreted rather than designed. It's simply not feasible to put so many developers on a single project and emerge with anything but an incoherent mess.
As for Leopard's delay, I'm sure that Microsoft's shareholders *wish* that a typical schedule slip at Microsoft was only four months.
-jcr
Posted by John C. Randolph | April 16, 2007 7:29 AM
give me a break! apple tried for years to development there own new modern os and could not do it. so they fell back to there old tried and true method take over something and call it theres. lets all hear it for bsd and a really pretty gui. maybe one of these day apple will come up with something besides "boy it sure is pretty"
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