Perilous Migrations: XP to Windows 7?
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News Analysis. Microsoft is offering some sobering advice to its Windows XP business customers: Better Vista than Windows 7. |
That's the crux of a post on the all-new "Windows for Your Business" blog. Gavriella Schuster writes:
We know some of our customers are considering waiting for Windows 7 instead of deploying Windows Vista today. We want these customers to understand the following considerations, so they are not surprised later on:
- You may find your company in situations where applications are no longer supported on Windows XP and not yet supported on Windows 7.
- You will want to take time to evaluate Windows 7 just as you evaluate any new operating system for your environment prior to deployment (see deployment realities above). As Windows 7 is planned to be released in about 3 years after Windows Vista, the total period that many customers will likely be waiting prior to deploying Windows 7 in their environment will likely be in the range of 5 years after Windows Vista release.
There's a strangeness here about the advice:
- Many customers stayed with Windows XP because of Vista application compatibility problems.
- Windows 7 is largely based on Vista, with emphasis on maintaining backward compatibility.
- Backward compatibility is near the top of Microsoft's priority list for Windows 7 development.
S-o-o-o, if Seven is to Vista and Microsoft claims Vista is now to XP, why isn't Seven to XP? If A is to B and B is to C, then A is to C, right? There's a breakdown in somebody's logic, either mine or Microsoft's. Some Microsoft Watch commenters will write that I'm oversimplifying, that software is inherently complex. But I'm taking Microsoft's marketing messaging at face value and putting it in context of global economic uncertainty.
Gavriella also advises businesses to "migrate your Windows 2000 PCs to Windows Vista as soon as possible. Extended support for Windows 2000 ends Q2 2010, and as a commercial customer, you may soon find your business's critical applications are unsupported."
That's sound advice. I wouldn't disagree. But she is really advising customers to buy new PCs now. Don't wait. The same can be said of Windows XP holdouts for Windows 7. Buy now, rather than later; enterprises won't be just deploying licenses, given their older hardware mostly likely won't support either Vista or Seven.
Gavriella's blog post offers some very good advice to businesses trying to plan upgrades from any of three other Windows operating systems. But that's not the whole story. I was an editor who worked his way down to being a journalist. For years, while working as an editor, a sign hung over my desk phone: "What's the point?" It's the question I ask about all marketing messaging coming out of Microsoft. As a journalist, I added a second question: "Who benefits?" If someone leaks me a juicy story, I always ask "Why?" Who benefits most from the leaked information?
In Gavriella's post, the questions "What's the point?" and "Who benefits?" lead to the same place. Whether or not intentional, she is giving business customers reasons why they should buy more Windows licenses—and for many, new PCs, too. Microsoft Client division revenues declined 8 percent in the most recent quarterly results; operating income fell by 13 percent. The global economic crisis is sapping broader software sales, too. Microsoft's worst-case scenario now is that too many businesses will delay new license purchases until Windows 7 ships.
But there's something else here that bugs me. Suppose Gavriella's post stands at face value, which means only offering helpful advice to customers with no benefits for Microsoft. How does Microsoft's Windows 7 is Vista-compatible marketing reconcile with her warnings about XP and Seven compatibility? I raise this point because Windows 7 won't support XP upgrades. Businesses will have to do clean installs. Now why is that?
Maybe then, there really are compatibility problems. But if Windows 7 is as compatible as Microsoft repeatedly claims, why should there be any concern migrating from XP?
Anyway, her post is useful reading. There's a second one, which I will hammer on in the next post.
[Please send your tips or rumors to watchtips at live.com].
Comments (11)
Ive said before that IMO opinion the pre-7 release is a dangerous time for the Windows platform.
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I do not want to get into another argument about if Vista is great or not, but I think we can all agree its hardly recieved global praise and future generations will hardly remember it as "Microsofts Golden Age"
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On one hand you have XP customers quite happy with their platform, and wondering what the future holds in respect of it. You have Vista customers who have been quite vocal in their opinions of that platform, and all this while waiting for the release of 7, which IMO after the praise the beta recieved is already showing a few cracks.
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You have the allegation that 7 on a Netbook will only run three applications at one time, and will be hobbled in order to keep the price down. We are in the middle of a recession, and I dont believe many companies are even going to be considering upgrading anything, especially if they are happy with the system they have. I would bet there are many business that provide Microsoft with alot of business that will not be here this time next year.
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In the midst of this, you have Apple appealing to many different areas of the markets with what are percieved as being innovative, fashionable items, and Linux is now popping up on virtually all IT related discussion forums, which at the very least shows that the 0.83% is a little off the mark (IMO)
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I said before and Ill say again, IMO Windows 7 will be out by June/July. I dont think Microsoft can afford to wait any longer, and at least by the time the recession is over, Windows 7 will have been established for a while and (hopefully) all the big issues (whatever they are) dealt with.
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To Microsoft, (or anyone who can answer)
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Quote "You may find your company in situations where applications are no longer supported on Windows XP and not yet supported on Windows 7."
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Name one. (Even talking 3rd party here, what company in todays market would consider selling a product that was NOT compatible with XP?)
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I hope Im forgiven for thinking this sounding like MS wanting your money now, and its quite happy to sell you Vista. Afterall when 7 is released they can give you another sales line and take your money again. - Thats my opinion. Id love to hear yours.
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That is unless someone can tell me in the period of the coming few months, which packages will no longer be supported in XP.
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Again as I said before, its nearly getting to a point where a certain Linux package and its Windows API replacement is more compatible than native Windows, and another barrier removed for people considering an alternative to Microsoft.
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Anyway, thats my opinion. Once Diamond Dave has posted a few lines of his name calling (and then accusing us of being trolls) I would love to discuss this maturely.
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In particular I am interested about a "rumor" that anyone purchasing Vista after June (or was it july) the 1st will get a free upgrade to 7.
Posted by Goblin | February 11, 2009 7:02 PM
Its about keeping the cash flowing. If everyone buying a new computer, holds off, waiting for Seven to release, MS is going take another hit, in the next quarter.
Posted by Chips B Malroy | February 11, 2009 7:11 PM
Hi Chips!
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True, although what I instantly thought of is "Are Microsoft covering their backs now?" We all remember the Vista ready issues, and Im wondering if Microsoft are concerned that customers may be purchasing 7 on the basis of backward comp with XP? Could it be there are issues here we are not aware of, and Microsoft is getting the message out now to prevent court cases later?
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Just an idea, but with the backward comp issues of Vista IMO and the relationship 7 has with it, it makes you wonder just HOW backward compatible 7 is going to be.
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Again, posted to you all. Just my opinion.
Posted by Goblin | February 11, 2009 7:21 PM
MS found pleasing that we could pay TWO times ,The people paid 1 time for Vista + another time for downgrade/upgrade to XP
This time MS tell us: it's a 'Perilous Migrations'(XP-seven) you better buy Vista and after buy seven then NOW you will be ok.
THIS IS REALLY DISGUSTING.
(Some people will pay 4 times the MS' error/horror made in Vista)
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Posted by Marco | February 11, 2009 7:26 PM
"Businesses will have to do clean installs. Now why is that?"
Because Microsoft learned from XP-to-Vista upgrade problems, that this method produces the best and most reliable results?
Posted by JohnJ | February 11, 2009 7:36 PM
There is more about MS greed:
(or another way to scam to us)
Easy Windows 7 upgrades could earn Microsoft billions a year extra
http://blogs.zdnet.com/Bott/?p=661
Quoting:
The big challenge for Microsoft in the Vista-to-7 transition is how to increase the average price of a Windows license without making users scream or quit in protest. By changing the upgrade game in Windows 7, they’ve created the conditions for a whole new revenue stream - and, paradoxically, have the chance to offer Windows customers an upgrade deal they’ll actually want.
I’ve crunched the numbers, and my rough calculations suggest that this realignment could be worth hundreds of millions, and perhaps billions of dollars in new revenue for Microsoft, even if PC sales remain flat. Here’s how I came to that conclusion.
OK, so you buy a new PC with Vista Home Premium and take it home, and then you discover that you can’t use Remote Desktop to manage that system remotely, and it doesn’t allow you to recover files saved by the Previous Versions feature, and you can’t do image backups. If you want those features, you have to buy an upgrade copy of Ultimate edition at a typical cost of $150 or more. And if you decide to upgrade after the fact, you not only pay through the nose, you also sign up for several hours of downtime as the upgrade completely replaces your existing installation and then migrates your programs and data files.
Long story short, the current Windows upgrade model is completely irrational.
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Yes completely irrational and DISGUSTING.!!
This was wrote by Ed Bott ( a MS' advocate)
Posted by Marco | February 11, 2009 7:55 PM
Why the MS'despair?
Quoting to Ed Bott:
"Two weeks ago, Microsoft delivered the shocking news that its Windows Client division reported declining revenue on a year-over-year basis, despite selling approximately as many licenses as it did in the previous year. It’s easy to blame the shortfall primarily on netbooks, as Microsoft did..."
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IT simply mean:
The cows are drying and MS is inventing as it could snatched our money.
Posted by Marco | February 11, 2009 8:09 PM
"S-o-o-o, if Seven is to Vista and Microsoft claims Vista is now to XP, why isn't Seven to XP? If A is to B and B is to C, then A is to C, right?"
Is it just me or does that make no sense whatsoever?
Joe, XP and Vista are not (very) compatible. Vista and 7 are virtually the same so they are compatible. Therefore XP users will have the same problems upgrading to 7 as they are upgrading to Vista.
Microsoft are essentially saying "You are going to have to switch to 7 at some point, so you might as well start testing on Vista now. If you are OK with Vista then 7 will be OK too. Do not wait until your current OS is unsupported before testing Vista/7".
Posted by billybob | February 11, 2009 8:24 PM
"Suppose Gavriella's post stands at face value, which means only offering helpful advice to customers with no benefits for Microsoft."
Where does she suggest that her advice doesn't benefit Microsoft? By helping people to make an informed decision she's clearly trying to help both them and MS. And she does a decent job of it. On the W7 subject she is clear that it's close to Vista:
"we recommend you test your applications against Windows Vista as there will be a high degree of compatibility between Windows 7 and Windows Vista"
But being close doesn't mean there won't be issues, or more importantly delays as various vendors get around to certifying their software and hardware. Which is why she encourages people to review with their vendors to see if it's an issue in their particular environment.
Posted by Paul | February 11, 2009 11:15 PM
If they expect IT spending to continue to decline over the next several years then the current period is where there will be the most opportunity.
Posted by Phil | February 12, 2009 8:44 AM
Joe, you missed the point by a mile. Gavriella wrote about applications are "no longer SUPPORTED on Windows XP and not yet SUPPORTED on Windows 7". Which means that if you call application support they will not be able to help you if the app is installed on a system other than Vista. You are arguing that since Microsoft promised COMPATIBILITY, Vista applications should run on Windows 7 just fine. Which is probably a fair argument, but it has little to do with applications being SUPPORTED running on Windows 7.
Posted by Dennis | February 12, 2009 3:12 PM