The Ghost of Netscape Past Is Google
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News Commentary. If Charles Dickens were alive to recast timeless classic A Christmas Carol for the 2000s, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer would be visited by the most frightening of specters: Netscape. |
Maybe the form would be the very living Marc Andreessen, who co-developed the Mosaic browser and founded Netscape in the 1990s. Microsoft vanquished Netscape during the so-called Browser Wars. AOL later bought Netscape; now the company and its famous browser are gone. Dead.
In this modern telling, the story portrays Marc in chains for his failed competition with Microsoft rather than Marley's selfish and uncharitable living. Marc knows the pains of crashing into an unmovable monopoly, of watching his dreams destroyed. He stretches out a long arm and extends a shaking finger in accusation. "Repent! Repent!"
The Ghost of Netscape Past later comes and hauls the goosebumped Steve Ballmer from his bed—gads, clothed only in an XXL Microsoft Softwear T-Shirt and boxer shorts. The ghost takes Steve to Netscape's headquarters in late 1995, where employees celebrate an amazing IPO. Time moves forward some months to meetings where Netscape employees brainstorm about creating a Web-based operating system. Netscape has the dominant browser, new server software and developer interest.
Steve bows his head in shame and exclaims, "We're not like that any more!" when taken to Microsoft. There, employees scheme for Netscape's destruction. An aggressive bundling strategy—FrontPage Web authoring tool and Internet Information Server with Windows NT 4—would be a first step. Microsoft would give away for free what Netscape must charge for. In later meetings, Steve sees Microsoft executives plot a developer end-run against Netscape by bundling Internet Explorer into Windows.
No sooner than being returned home, Steve embarks with the Ghost of Netscape Present. He visits IT organizational meetings where managers mock Windows Vista as Windows Me II. "What about Bob?" one manager roars. Steve learns that only 10 percent of enterprises have adopted Windows Vista, while nearly half plan to skip the operating system for its successor. But the weak economy would mean delaying even those upgrades.
In a poetic stab of cruelty, the specter takes Steve up into the clouds and magnifies events in Silicon Valley below:
- Web search: Google's search share is 63.1 percent, while Microsoft has fallen to 8.5 percent.
- Apple's iPhone: 6.7 million sell in third quarter and perhaps another 6 million during the holidays; within the device are a compelling mobile operating system and Web browser.
- T-Mobile G1: Reviewers embrace the first Google phone, which unit sales could exceed 1 million units by year's end; within the device are a compelling mobile operating system and Web browser.
- Android: Google adds Sony Ericsson, Vodaphone and 12 other companies to its Open Handset Alliance.
- Windows Mobile: Apple's iPhone OS sales exceed Windows Mobile, which has a last-century browser and no clear future.
- Chrome: The Google browser and Internet Explorer rival emerges from beta after only 100 days.
- Mystery OS: Googlers appear to be running a clandestine operating system that might be a Web-based alternative to Windows.
The ever hopeful salesman, Steve stomps his feet and yells, "I love this company!" While disturbed, Microsoft's CEO refuses to let present events sully his mood or determination to stay the course.
The specter returns Steve to his bed, where the hours pass with excruciating slowness. Suddenly, the Ghost of Netscape Future, in the form of a sullen but raging Mitch Kapor, bursts through the door. The future is bleak. Apple and Google are everywhere. But it is Google that competitively has bested Microsoft.
Steve learns that Google had accomplished what Netscape couldn't. Chrome and Gears were but foundation for a Google operating system. Windows Vista's market failure, Windows Mobile's self-destruction and the 2008-10 recession's impact on server software sales created the perfect storm of opportunity for Apple and, particularly, Google.
Mac marketshare climbed to 25 percent before being pushed back by the Google OS. Apple's early success selling iPhone also diminished before mighty Android, which is the operating system used on three-quarters of mobile phones.
Google leveraged its search and advertising monopoly across three screens: desktops/laptops, cell phones and netbooks. Google-Microsoft competition came to be called the "Halo Wars," for Microsoft's Xbox game and Google's pledge to make money without doing evil. Google succeeded by:
- Successfully launching a Web OS in the clouds, with features comparable to Microsoft software, but given away for free and subsidized by advertising.
- Dominating cell phones, which emerged as the platform succeeding PCs and which was well suited to Web applications and Google search. Apple's early lead diminished as more cell phone manufacturers supported Google's Android.
- Using netbooks to jumpstart Google OS adoption. The majority of early devices ran either Linux or Windows XP, which Google came to displace. Later, Google worked with Microsoft OEMs and retailers to give away Google OS-based netbooks subsidized by advertising.
- Feinting projects that were nothing more than distractions for Microsoft. By keeping Microsoft chasing its tail, so to speak, Google kept its real OS ambitions secret until it was too late for Microsoft to effectively respond.
Comprehension sears Steve's psyche, as he sees what was—or will be. But his insight is suddenly shattered. The specter laughs, his shrill like a thousand fingernails passing along a chalkboard. The Mitch Kapor imitator delights in seeing Steve humbled by circumstances Microsoft created for Lotus 1-2-3, WordPerfect and many other early, market-leading software products. For Microsoft's CEO, the mocking is almost more unbearable than seeing Google's dominance. Steve falls to the ground, curls up and cries. Unexpectedly, darkness descends and his consciousness ebbs away.
Suddenly, Steve bolts up from the bed, which stinks of soaked sweat. For a moment, his mood is smitten by despair, before realizing that he is back in his bed, still CEO of Microsoft and Microsoft is the dominant technology company. Steve understands now what must be done to solve the Google problem. For too long Microsoft executives have obsessed about Google when they should have focused on making their products better. Microsoft should never have been—ah, someday be—bested by Google.
Steve makes a decision. A few weeks earlier, a couple nerds from Microsoft Research pitched a temporal displacement project. As a joke, their prototype used a flux capacitor. Microsoft's chief executive wasn't amused, and he thought they were kind of nuts anyway. No longer. From the nightstand, Steve grabs his smartphone and speaks a name to dial.
"Build it!" Steve yells into the phone. He will go back in time and buy start-up Google.
[Editor's Note: I chose this approach rather than doing a long analysis stating the obvious: A Google OS is inevitable.]
[Please send your tips or rumors to watchtips at live.com].
Comments (16)
You got the history little off its not Netscape. Google had no interest in the desktop market until Microsoft come after them in there search market.
Microsoft has woken many sleeping dogs of war. List major companies Microsoft has stepped on over the years is long.
Then double check how many of those companies are still going.
Google to live has to control the browser market to prevent Microsoft being able to use it as a weapon against them.
Microsoft has caused this problem. You can attack and win a lot but one day you attack the wrong person and they will hit back hard.
Threats are not just Google. Google just leading at moment. Kinda handy to keep MS looking the wrong way.
Posted by oiaohm | December 11, 2008 5:17 PM
I swear Joe, you are definitely loosing it. You either write these things to list as part of your CV to hopefully one day end up working at Google or to become a part of Steve Jobs inner circle of friends. This article is riddled with inaccuracies. The Ghost of Microsoft would not be haunting Steve Ballmer, it would be haunting Bill Gates, Jim Allchin. People who are no longer at Microsoft. They are the ones who made the marketing and technical decisions around how Internet Explorer was distributed and bundled.
Netscape designed its own fall. From a technical standpoint it became outdated and buggy because they were trying to match feature for feature and out do IE back in the 90's. That same web OS decision they made back then also sealed their future as a has been web browser that ended up being bought by AOL which imploded later into the 21st century. So, the Ghost would most likely be haunting folks at Time/Warner, not Microsoft.
Posted by Andre Da Costa | December 11, 2008 5:36 PM
I think another company kicked along the way is IBM with the OS/2 debacle. Now IBM is becoming quite effective at pushing the Linux stack for corporate servers at the expense of MS. Monetarily these are much bigger deals. And certainly no love lost of MS in IBM land.
Posted by smist08 | December 11, 2008 5:57 PM
I would like to say sorry now to everyone here.
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It appears I have jumped dimensions into some sort of weird & twisted parallel universe.
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Quote Andre (you knew that was coming didnt you!)
"This article is riddled with inaccuracies"
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In the universe I came from, this was Andres forte with his "feature rich" and endless buzzwords copied from an MS PR sheet. Infact the only unbias piece of information I saw Andre post, was the URL to his "blog"
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Quote Andre "From a technical standpoint it became outdated and buggy..."
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Shall we go through the MS products that relates to or in this universe does MS release packages that actually satisfy its customer base?
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I look forward to returning to my own universe shortly.
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Getting back to all seriousness, I agree with Smist08, of course anyone who offers a stance other than a pro-MS one is instantly called a fanboy, so I wait with baited breath to see who the first person will be.
Posted by Goblin | December 11, 2008 6:09 PM
Gates, Ballmer, Shmallmer.
I only hope the Google is really that smart.
Smart enough to endlessly play mind-games with Microsoft - sending out false radio traffic - keeping them off-balance with phony products announcements and weird wild goose-chases like Google Lively, etc.
Letting Microsoft struggle with endless regression testing of its legacy products, and endless re-badging its toy-product-offerings like LIVE.
All fiendishly planned to keep Microsoft running around in circles while something more sinister is afoot.
Meanwhile - the mysterious CYCLOPS operating system is now breathing on its own in Google's dungeon-lab on their secret volcano-island somewhere in the Carribean.
And Chrome really isn't just a browser, its actually some sort of diabolical front-end to the world-eating CYCLOPS cloud-operating-system.
I want to see Ballmer on Thorazine before this nightmare is over.
Robert
Posted by Rob | December 11, 2008 6:13 PM
Oh Yeah...
And we'll follow up with some bizarre, alarming rumors about Google's new tie-up with Intel...
... co-developing their new SPETZNAZ chip architecture.
Yeah, that's the ticket !
Better have Nurse Diesel check under his tongue - we wouldn't want our patient skipping his meds.
Robert
Posted by Rob | December 11, 2008 6:38 PM
The Netscape brand may be dead, but the software lives on. The core browser part is now Mozilla Firefox, while the original full software suite is now SeaMonkey.
And Firefox is certainly kicking Microsoft's arse. No dead ghost, that.
And why does your comment form continue to claim “you may use HTML tags for style” when it simply strips them out?
Posted by Lawrence D'Oliveiro | December 11, 2008 6:39 PM
... and we'll announce our new deal with Peter Seller's estate to let us post propaganda posters with Doctor Strangelove's wheelchair Nazi salute - to our new world order !
"Of course - it will be essential that senior military personnel be involved - to instill the necessary discipline and patriotism as we plan ahead for the bold adventure ahead"!
Oooh, I'm getting all worked up just thinking about it.
Rob
Posted by Rob | December 11, 2008 6:53 PM
one final note:
Have you ever noticed that photos of Steve Ballmer - look just like the monster in Mel Brook's Young Frankenstein ?
Odd isn't it?
Rob
Posted by Rob | December 11, 2008 7:19 PM
Here's a link showing Steve Ballmer (er, the monster) being comforted by the young Dr. Frankenstein.
I tell ya, somethin’s goin on here!
What I want to know is "who knew what - when"?
http://donmoseslerman.com/mosesnews/mosesnews/uploaded_images/Young-Frankenstein-bh01-743386.jpg
Rob
Posted by Rob | December 11, 2008 7:40 PM
Joe, This should go down as a classic. I enjoyed this one immensely.
Although I would have liked to see Linux triumphed over MSFT, Apple and Google...in this story...
Posted by Ralph | December 11, 2008 10:23 PM
I feel sorry for poor little Ray Ozzie, who is charged with the re-tooling of Microsoft. Microsoft hears him, but they are not listening, and they certainly don't believe him.
Posted by Dave Lindhout | December 12, 2008 8:36 AM
You be better off with the ghost of Netscape.
Microsoft confirms that all versions of IE have critical new bug
http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9123338&source=NLT_PM
"The unpatched bug in Internet Explorer 7 (IE7) that hackers are now exploiting also exists in older versions of the browser, including the still-widely-used IE6, Microsoft Corp. said late yesterday. In a revised security advisory, Microsoft said research confirmed that the bug is within all its browsers, including those it currently supports -- IE5.01, IE6 and IE7 -- as well as IE8 Beta 2, a preview version that the company doesn't support through normal channels."
Posted by The Hand | December 14, 2008 4:03 PM
The big Windows 7 lie
http://blogs.computerworld.com/the_big_windows_7_lie
by Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols
"On closer inspection though Windows 7 M3 (Milestone 3) is being revealed as being just a "slightly tweaked version of Vista. When I said recently that early Windows 7 reviews based on handpicked bribes, ah high-end laptops, to reviewers and bloggers could only give results that were not a lot different from those of a rigged demo I was more right than I knew. Randall Kennedy put the Windows 7 engine on a real test-bench and discovered that, at the kernel level, "When viewed side by side in Performance Monitor, Vista and Windows 7 were virtually indistinguishable.
In case you haven't used Vista, that means you can expect Windows 7 performance to be lousy. Kennedy ran the same application performance tests comparing XP and Vista and found that Vista ran 40% slower than XP. I've said it before, I'll say it again, if you must run Windows, run XP SP3.".......................
Might be its time to get off the MSFT bandwagon of upgrades every 2.5 to 3 years, move to Linux, and keep XP around for everything else. Sure will be a cheaper, lot less maintenance, and then there is the malware problem that Windows has.
Posted by The Hand | December 15, 2008 1:54 PM
Has anyone seen the UI of Andriod? It's hideous!
Posted by JM | December 16, 2008 3:22 PM
"Suddenly, Steve bolts up from the bed, which stinks of soaked sweat. For a moment, his mood is smitten by despair"
I think that Ballmer is rather at that stage of sleep -N3- (nightmare?)in which even if he wants to awakes he can not.
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BTW good story Joe.
Posted by Marco | December 20, 2008 4:00 AM