Android Dresses Up In Chrome
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News Analysis. Microsoft's Google Chrome problem may start on the PC but it ends on cell phones. Microsoft's competitive position is at best tenuous at a time when it needs tenaciousness. |
Make no mistake, Chrome is the most threatening competitive product Microsoft has faced in a decade. But the threat is more potential, because Google has a long way to go from beta to shipping product and wooing developers to the new runtime along the way. That said, if Microsoft's mobile strategy weren't so weak, I wouldn't be writing this blog post.
Before continuing on the main topic, I must clearly state something I've alluded to in other posts: Microsoft must change its priorities. The company has wasted too much time chasing Google in search. The search wars are over, and Google won. Microsoft must accept this. Where Microsoft should have been pushing hard is the device category where search will be the killer application: the cell phone.
Instead, Windows Mobile has fallen way behind competing products. Windows Mobile is a mess. The user interface is too complicated, and there are fewI say nocapabilities that distinguish it from other mobile operating systems. Yesterday's "The Mossberg Solution" review of the Touch Diamond has this headline: "HTC Can't Disguise Windows Mobile Flaws." The hardware is solid, but the operating system is ho hum.
It's time for Microsoft to launch a mobile Manhattan Project, something on the scale of Internet Explorer in 1996. If Microsoft cedes the mobile market to Apple and Google, the PC will be the software giant's finaland declininglegacy. Mobile devices, particularly cell phones, will be the next dominant platform. The PC's role will reverse, becoming adjunct to the cell phone.
The Web in Your Pocket
The mobile market has dramatically changed over the last 12-15 months. But Windows Mobile hasn't moved with it. Apple's iPhone is exciting and has raised end user expectations about mobile user interfaces. Apple's iPhone platform has huge potential to woo developers, too, mainly because of the App store.
Now along comes Google, carrying two nuclear missiles: Android and Chrome. Both are immediate problems for Microsoft. Let me be absolutely clear: Chrome is not a Web browser, it's an application runtime. Chrome is really Google Gears with a browser facade. Sure, Chrome is based on Webkit and has browser legacy, but the product's core capabilitiesand Google's objectives for themis running Web applications. Chrome is a development platform, but in the cloud instead of on the PC. Way I see it, Chrome is the Google OS.

Google has confirmed that Chrome will come to mobile phones, although there is some debate about in what form. Apple's Safari browser, which also is based on Webkit, runs on iPhonealbeit with changes from the PC version. I fully expect to see Chrome to have the same runtime capabilities on Android phones as on PCs. Google would be stupid to do anything else.
Google has already announced the Android Marketplace, which will launch in beta when the mobile operating system is released. But applications shouldn't stop there. The developer and end user benefit to Google Gears is taking existing Web applications offline. The mobile phone is the most natural Web application client, for consumers and businesses. Google's application strategy doesn't end with the Android Marketplace but starts there. Chrome will be bigger.
Whoops, for Microsoft, Google has already got Web services that could run in Chrome on mobile phones, either connected or on the device. Chrome is the glue that Google will use to make its Web services stick to end users. Those applications can be distributed pretty much anywhere Chrome goes,
Microsoft's .NET was supposed to be the application runtime for the Internet. But .NET is doing OK, but not really great, on mobile phones. Seriously, Microsoft should shift resources dedicated to Windows 7 to Windows Mobile. Microsoft owns the PC, and that won't suddenly change on the desktop or laptop. Microsoft has got to worry about the Chrome OS invading the desktop and, more dangerously, pushing into the mobile handset market.
Microsoft acquisitions such as Tellme were supposed to bring new mobile user interfaces; Powerset was supposed to help usher in new search capabilities, particularly useful for mobile devices. Where are the innovations?
I'll reiterate: Microsoft needs a mobile Manhattan Project.
Sizing Up the Mobile Market
The mobile handset market's size dwarfs the PC, and cell phones are more personal and more likely to be carried everywhere. They're captive devices that are always connected.
Nokia has the market share, Apple the mind share and Android is nowhereuntil a product comes to market. According to Gartner, worldwide, Nokia shipped 120.4 million mobile phones in second quarter. Nokia's market share is just shy of 40 percent. Gartner expects Nokia's market share to increase during second half, regardless of iPhone 3G's worldwide introduction. In the battle of market share versus mind share, Nokia takes the more important prize.
The second largest manufacturer is a categoryotherfor which there were 57.97 million units shipped, or 19 percent market share, in second quarter. Most Windows Mobile devices, but by no means all, and iPhone 3G fall into the category.
Windows Mobile is everywhere but nowhere. I say that because Microsoft can point to zillions of mobile devices running Windows Mobile. But breadth isn't depth, and the vast majority of cell phones run Nokia's Symbian OS.
Overall, mobile phone sales are booming, with 305 million units shipped during second quarter, for an 11 percent year-over-year gain. For perspective, cell phone manufacturers ship more than 1 billion handsets each year, or about the same number as the entire Windows PC install base. Quick regional breakdown:
- North America: 44 million units, 6.5 percent increase
- Latin America: 38.5 million units, 9.5 percent increase
- Western Europe: 42 million units, 8.2 percent increase
- Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa: 56 million units, 18 percent increase
- Japan: 22.1 million units, 9.4 percent increase
- Asia-Pacific: 115 million units, 20.5 percent increase
The mobile handset market is growing fast, and it's one where context matters most. People will watch movies, play games, surf the Web or do e-mail on cell phones when there is no other device choice. But the big, potential application is search, because people want to find places to go or to eat when they're out and about. They need directions to get around town. Search, Google's purview on the PC, makes even more sense on the cell phone. Advertising makes even more sense, too, especially if keywords lead people to the kinds of places they already want to go.
Putting the "Net" in Netbooks
Microsoft's problem isn't just mobile phones. The next-generation PCs aren't big, they're small. Yesterday I was looking at the pink MSI Wind Netbook and thought it would be a perfect Web application computer. "Net" is in the name for a reason.
Microsoft's Windows Vista is a fiasco that just keeps on giving trouble. I'm not one of the Vista haters, but that doesn't mean I don't recognize its foibles. The biggest: Vista demands too much hardware at a time when the market has shifted to lower-powered notebooks and now netbooks and ultra-low-cost PCs. The latter two really can't run Windows Vista, which is why Microsoft has licensed Windows XP Home for them.
Microsoft had to do something. The company couldn't abandon the emerging netbook and ultra-low-cost PC markets to Linux, so it licensed Windows XP Home for these devices. Now Google comes along with Chrome, which is more application runtime than Web browser. Chrome should run just fine on netbooks running XP Home, even with the resources consumed by each tab operating as a single process.
Microsoft's fiercest competitor is itself. The company has created a nasty problem where Windows XP netbooks will compete with Vista laptops in some marketsI'd watch for emerging and education for starters. Uh-oh, Google has a browser runtime that could supplant XP Home's user interface and replace it with a shell for running Web applications in Chrome.
Sure, netbooks aren't for everybody, but they're low cost, lightweight (Wind weighs 2.6 pounds) and they're small. The Wind measures 10.23 x 7.08 x 0.748 to 1.24 inches.
The point: Google could and absolutely will want to shine up Chrome with Web applications on many different connected devices. Microsoft should never, absolutely never have allowed Google to encroach so far into its core information markets. Search was, and still is, a distraction for Microsoft executives.
It's a strange repeating of history. When the Web began to grow in the early 1990s, Microsoft was looking the wrong way. The company was fixated on online networks like AOL and CompuServe. In the early 2000s, Microsoft looked the wrong way, towards Google search as the competitive problem. But the real threat was coming elsewhere, on mobile devices. If Windows Mobile were a better end user and developer product today, the new Google threat could more easily be contained.
Should I repeat that call for a mobile Manhattan Project one more time? Whoops, I just did.
[Please send your tips or rumors to watchtips at live.com].
Related Posts:
- Chrome Privacy is Full of Dents, Microsoft Watch, Sept. 2, 2008
- How Shiny is Google Chrome?, Apple Watch, Sept. 2, 2008
- Google Chrome Makes a Good First Impression, Emerging Tech, Sept. 2, 2008
- Chrome: The Google OS, Microsoft Watch, Sept. 2, 2008
- Google Eats Its Young, Microsoft Watch, Sept. 2, 2008
- Microsoft's Pie in the Skymarket, Microsoft Watch, Sept. 2, 2008
- Google Chrome Browser to Challenge Microsoft, Google Watch, Sept. 1, 2008
- Does Android Dream of iPhone?, Apple Watch, Aug. 28, 2008
- IE 8: The Rough Cut, Microsoft Watch, Aug. 27, 2008
- Mobile Search is Hot, Microsoft Watch, Jan. 17, 2008


Comments (19)
Finally we're starting to see some real daylight on the web-platforming arena.
Chrome is a container. A smart container, to be sure, but a container nevertheless.
Built to look like a browser, Chrome will be able to deliver all sorts of operating system applications and work applications built on a new paradigm.
I find it odd Adobe says AIR is built from a design that is capable of running on mobile processors but they don't have plans to run AIR on mobile processors. ANd here's Google placing a box for Gears to run in right on cell phones. Hmmm. Interesting.
Well, SOMEbody needs to run some micro-servers on mobile platforms. And Chrome looks like a fine box to put those things in.
Where's Microsoft on this issue? Still asleep? Still smarting from having to be spanked to deliver web work? Wow.
Posted by portuno | September 4, 2008 2:20 PM
Joe,
Great job, you nailed it.
MSFTs poor execution of WindowsMobile (and WinCE) is destined to be an even greater miscue than Vista's troubled and aimless development cycle. The bottom line consequences of their feckless WindowsMobile product will haunt MSFT for years to come.
Posted by Dev | September 4, 2008 2:28 PM
Under previous anti-trust investigations MS fought tooth and nail being broken up (like AT&T). Perhaps that decision has really hurt them. Now they waste an awful lot of management resource on things like MS Business Solutions that completely under perform and turn natural allies into competitors and enemies. Perhaps they should split off or sell all these distraction businesses, and concentrate their resources and top smart people on their core platform business.
Posted by smist08 | September 4, 2008 3:22 PM
Excellent post, Joe.Its funny how MS is getting squeezed by closed (APPL) and open (GOOG) systems.
MSFT needs a strong, central leader to come in and focus the company before it atomizes into nothingness.
Posted by geo | September 4, 2008 4:07 PM
This is a notice to all commenters:
This afternoon I deleted some comments about VCSY, and I unpublished 22 comments believed to be from the Fake I-Man (based on the IP address). I have not removed comments from portuno as some commenters requested. I did remove links in some portuno comments pointing to blogs he wrote about VCSY.
There is no censorship at Microsoft Watch, but spam is deleted. The posts on VCSY are endless, and they should have stopped when the settlement was reached. Any future VCSY comments will be treated as spam and deleted. If they persist, the poster will be banned.
Douglas Taylor and Tom Berber asked for some respite from portuno. Again, I don't censor comments. If it were my choice--and it's not--there would be no anonymous commenting at Microsoft Watch. Douglas and Tom both identify themselves through links. Portuno does not. The weak often hide and from their secrecy attack those in the open.
Portuno is right when he says that I have his e-mail address. But that doesn't really identify who he is, although the information wasn't that hard for me to get. I strongly suggest that portuno clearly identify himself and his associations if he wants to attack the integrity of others.
As for the others, like Douglas and Tom, don't let portuno's insinuations and accusations bother you. He's looking for reaction, methinks. Why feed his need to bleed you?
I found the VCSY posts to be mildly assuming and somewhat annoying. I watched the banter with other commenters and portuno, who clearly sought reaction. Neither he nor either of the I-Mans is getting a reaction from me. I've stepped in because plenty enough time has passed since the VCSY settlement and enough regular commenters have requested action for me to do something. So I'm taking action and will step in again and again until all this nonsense stops.
I am posting this comment on the 10 most recent Microsoft Watch blog posts.
My thanks to all the regular commenters,
Joe
Posted by Joe | September 4, 2008 4:16 PM
Portuno said:
Where's Microsoft on this issue? Still asleep? Still smarting from having to be spanked to deliver web work? Wow.
Portuno, Internet Explorer is a Container (spefically an OLE/COM container) since version 3 and a .NET container since 4.0 I think. Actually, Microsoft is the undisputable pioneer on containers.
As for chrome let's not exagurate things here... Information week quote
"Google Chrome's Shine Dimmed By Bugs.
Issues include laptops failing to sleep while Chrome runs, network errors related to proxies, lack of SSL client authentication support, and inability to remove Most Visited sites entries.
Posted by Evan | September 4, 2008 4:45 PM
Nice analysis of the problems Joe. I believe however that you overestimate Microsoft's ability to react. In the mid 90's Microsoft had Gates kicking butt in a relatively small group of mostly A's with some B's. Today there is no Gates and the A's and B's are outnumbered by C's, especially in the management ranks. In trying to control so many markets they have added too many people.
If they want to maintain their lead in the OS their only chance is to spin off secondary product groups. Unfortunately that means management admits wasting billions which will never happen.
Posted by Phil | September 4, 2008 5:16 PM
These days, Microsoft are largely material for comedy.
Posted by David Gerard | September 4, 2008 6:04 PM
Good post Joe! You even resisted the urge to call it an OS, so thanks... Except that one time, but I just skipped past it :)
HTML and standard Javascript means that applications are automatically cross platform, cloud based and web 2.0 - thats 3 buzz words for no extra work! If Google and Mozilla can make web a viable alternative to fat client side applications by making them fast then I am all for it.
It will be interesting to see if IE keeps up with HTML5 or lets the others go ahead and they stick with silverlight being the solution to everything.
Posted by billybob | September 4, 2008 9:00 PM
Posted from Google Chrome. Microsoft Watch is the first site that I've visited after trying Chrome.
Posted by Philosopher | September 4, 2008 9:36 PM
I've always wondered how companies like Microsoft get away with the things they do. Now I know.
Those of you who read "opinions" and "comments" with the thought you might actually be reading sincere, honest and unbiased words might as well read Dear Abby. You'll actually be learning something useful.
Those of you who complain about smoke and mirrors should realize a company can't blow smoke and arrange mirrors all by themselves. They need help from folks well placed and supported.
It's enough. You know what I've said. It's enough to sit back and watch every last one of you simmer in your own juices. It's enough to watch all of you fail the tests of fairness and honesty and think yourselves correct.
So be it.
You can have it, Joe.
To those of us who breath fresh air, it stinks.
Posted by portuno | September 4, 2008 9:46 PM
portuno wrote: "You can have it, Joe."
I can have what, portuno? I didn't ban you or delete your comments, maybe as some other people would have liked. But the VCSY stuff has gotten to be too much. The VCSY comments interfere with real dialogue.
I think it's good that you challenge some of the other commenters. As for identifying yourself, I asked that if you're going to accuse others of shilling for somebody else.
Your comments contribute much to the blog. Everyone loses out if they stop. I hope you're not leaving us, portuno.
Joe
Posted by Joe | September 4, 2008 10:38 PM
Joe Willcox says to portuno;
"I think it's good that you challenge some of the other commenters. As for identifying yourself, I asked that if you're going to accuse others of shilling for somebody else."
----------------------------------------------------
Joe, many of the folks here that do comment, (as you know) do work for Microsoft or have a vested interest somehow with that company or its software. Its not illegal to shill, but morally, that's not so clear, is it? And please do not think that I mean Douglas and Tom, who I do not believe in any way shape or form are shills, just they are what they say they are. There are folks that clearly work for MS that write in here. If they identify themselves first, I never label them a MS shill. I respect honesty, when they do this, although, I reserve the right to disagree with their viewpoints.
Its the others, that try to hide the fact that they have some kind of vested interest with promoting MS products that I have a problem with. And it easy to find out who most of them are if they use a link, like Andre.
As for me, I am who I say I am. A lowly technician, who repairs, cleans malware, mostly, on Windows computers. I do not have a web site, my work comes from word of mouth referrals mostly. Neither do I have the time to setup a website either. So if it seems that I attack people as "M$ Shills," without identifying myself, that's why. Also remember what a MS Shill does and why they post that link in their name. Its easy to detect the shill, because their site reads just like a "just the facts" Microsoft web site. The link is put in the Shill's name, to try to promote the product, the the Shill is being paid by. (MS) And if you believe people like Andre, are just fanboi's, then I got a bridge to sell you. Also, I usually have some supporting evidence when I label someone a MS $hill.
I do not have any vested interests in promoting Linux, other than to see people not have all the malware and stability problems of the Windows Operating Systems. I do not have any vested interest in promoting Apple, either. In fact, at this time, I think Mac is too expensive for the average user. That point is of course open for debate, once you factor in how many people crash windows about once a year, because of the malware or general instability. That has to cost something.
As far as portuno, I hope he does stay. Once in awhile, when he was off his favorite topic, he had some very interesting things to write.
Also, I know you try hard to be fair Joe and your comments where not directed at me. At least I hope so.
Posted by chips | September 5, 2008 1:23 PM
Defending Portuno (the devil?)
If any person needed once to be backed up in the forum, that was Chips. He, when he defended his ideas (and in some cases, the blogger as well) was attacked, insulted and mistreated by a group of individuals. They did not attack his ideas, but rather committed ad-hominem. Then it’s proved that some of these individuals had economic benefit links to Ms. Thing which they never declared. But he did not ask or received any back up from you, Joe. And that was the right thing. If you had defended him, you’d have to change/put rules and maybe even a moderator.
I agree with you Joe about VCSY. But not in the way that you have supported some people (excuse me Tom) in this forum. Because, being fair (and leaving VCSY aside), there was mutual aggression (
in a given period of time). Despite the fact that generally I’m not with Portuno ideas, I consider his opinion to be valuable to this forum.
Portuno:
Joe has not banned you, as long as you don’t go OTT over VCSY. Thus, I wait and hope that, with the corresponding moderation, you keep giving ideas in this forum.
Posted by Marco | September 5, 2008 1:41 PM
"corresponding moderation": about VCSY.
Posted by Marco | September 5, 2008 2:01 PM
Joe, lets get one thing straight. Port doesn't attack the integrity of others. He attacks the integrity in what they say. He asks simply for supporting evidence in links etc. Most here choose to post bias, false, or slanderous information about most subjects as well as against VCSY. For a man who is as intuitive and who's information has proven true, yes true Joe, over the years. He has a right to keep his identity to himself. But that isn't the issue at hand. It is the information others call legitimate and objective.
Posted by Ben | September 5, 2008 2:02 PM
I was forgetting:
Question to Joe:
Joe: Will you change/put rules and a moderator?, because it's probably this matter will get out of yours hands.
And Joe; "there would be no anonymous commenting at Microsoft Watch".
Excellent idea.
Posted by Marco | September 5, 2008 2:26 PM
At the bottom of this post is an example of the sort of thing people who are being paid to attack others do. The masterpiece is from a Yahoo poster who calls himself "Al". In fact, Al speaks in first person about himself. Some may think it gives Al an air of sophistication, but, actually, the first person tactic allows Al to post as a variety of people and pretend he's talking about third person Al when he forget's who he's logged in as when he pushes the submit button.
Al's personality is far from sophisticated. He's one of the most abusive posters I've seen in more than eight years of posting.
"Al considers you a dumbshit. Al knows more than you do."
In effect, Al is an insufferable tech phony and more akin to a hedge fund publicist. It shows.
Why do I point out Al? Because Al posts on your site now. Why? Because I posted there. He chases, harangues, and daily imposes his twisted views which are outrageously abusive. Why? It's what he does for a living.
My problem with people who get paid to post in comment forums is the readers are caught unaware and are manipulated by carefully planned (or, in the case of Al, desperately freaked out) campaigns designed to force the employer's philosophy on the reader.
THAT is what I attack... especially when I am attacked first - a hallmark indication the poster has no defense and needs to bury the information.
The tactic is to prejudice the readers' attitude toward the information... that's all it takes and the reader thinks the information is useless. Bigotry and prejudice are very easy attitudes to spread, especially when it serves the psychological frailties of those who have no defense.
If someone can defend their philosophies, I would love to engage their ideas. But, when somebody starts dancing and dodging and calling on others to "BAN" someone, the red flag goes up and the self-serving poster gets the strip down treatment. I like to strip phonies down. The world is full of them, so, I won't run out of entertainment, will I?
Your site doesn't need my ideas. Those ideas are going to impose themselves on your clientele and your readers from now on no matter who says what.
Whether your commentors can show they understand the issues and forthrightly confront those issues remains to be seen.
The subject of web-platforming is something Microsoft has wanted to bury for years. Now, as though they've awakened from a long coma, they are rushing to appear "current" in the web world... something they have not been able to demonstrate until the month of August 2008.
Gee. Such an odd time to awaken, no?
So, here's Al's post. Just wanted you to see how he interpreted your comments toward me. This is why I dislike phonies so much; they lie and they do everything they can to convince the readers of their twisted intent.
Pure and simple. They lie. And that makes them liars. Should we suffer liars? Should we encourage their efforts? I'll stay off your board from now on and we'll see how your readers respond about the subject.
Thanks for the use of the space.
To wit, "Al's" post:
5-Sep-08 06:13 am
the_original_al_coholic_2008
"I strongly suggest that portuno clearly identify himself and his associations if he wants to attack the integrity of others."
from the Microsoft-watch website. Seems Joe Wilcox knows who poortuna is. wonder what "associations" these would be? perhaps the SEC would be interested in what Joe knows if indeed what you guys speculated happens to be factual.
Seems to ol' honest Al, that if poortuna were just some guy following/invested in vcsy.ob & with an interest in technology, there'd be no need for the suggestion to reveal an "association."
the plot thickens as it were.
------
No, Al. What's thickening is soup; the soup you're being boiled in. The future is delicious... for us. Not for you and your employer.
Posted by portuno | September 6, 2008 12:59 AM
"Mobile devices, particularly cell phones, will be the next dominant platform. The PC's role will reverse, becoming adjunct to the cell phone. "
I know this is the current favourite theory, but I have a lot of trouble imagining a time when PCs will play second-fiddle to mobile devices for computing functions that are work-related as opposed to music/video, gaming or communicating. If a mobile device ever gave us the screen real estate and input options we need for graphics work, desktop publishing, spread-sheeting etc, we'd already have a name for it: Laptop.
Mobile devices may be ascendent in the roles they can play, but there's a practical limit too.
Posted by Simon | September 16, 2008 9:51 PM