Hi, I'm an iPhone and You're Nobody
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News Analysis. Uh-Oh. Apple will almost certainly wipe up Microsoft in smart phone operating system market share during third quarter. |
That's my conclusion after further reviewing Gartner's smart phone OS shipment numbers for first and second quarters. Sorry, I should have figured this all out earlier in the day.
Some background: Yesterday, I couldn't get to Nokia's announcement about licensing Exchange ActiveSync for Symbian S60 handsets. I instead posted to Apple Watch on new iPod colors (the one new feature) and iTunes 8's sales pushiness. Overnight, I asked Gartner for mobile OS shipments so I could write an analysis on the Nokia-Microsoft deal. Afterwards, I dug further into the numbers for an Apple Watch post on iPhone OS market share. While writing that post, I realized Windows Mobile's plight, and it's dire.
By even the most conservative of analyst estimates about third-quarter iPhone shipments, Apple's OS almost certainly will push aside Windows Mobile in smart phone operating system market share. The smart phone is Windows Mobile's core market.
The numbers look like this, and I have to fill in the gap some for Gartner, which didn't provide iPhone OS shipments for first quarter because there was no year-over-year comparison (The numbers do appear within the first quarter's "others" category). Apple shipped iPhone on the second-to-last day of second quarter 2007.
During first half 2008, Microsoft shipped about 7.6 million copies of Windows Mobile. Smart phone OS market share was about 12 percent for each of the first two quarters. Gartner's second quarter numbers combined with Apple's disclosed iPhone shipments for first quarter equals about 2.6 million units for the first half. That's a little less than half the Linux total.
Looking ahead, iPhone OS could easily pass Windows Mobile, assuming Microsoft ships about the same number of copies in each of the previous two quarters&151;3.8 million. My guess: Windows Mobile shipments will decline to as few as 3 million. There are a bunch of exciting new Windows Mobile handsets coming to market, but the emphasis is on coming. For example, the HTC Touch Diamond and HTC Touch Pro are coming to Sprint here in the United States—next week and late October, respectively. Sony's Xperia X-1 launches on Sept. 30, which isn't soon enough for Microsoft.
Windows Mobile could have an exciting fourth quarter, but there's not much bang going on in third quarter. By contrast, Apple launched one of the most highly anticipated smart phones ever on July 11. Financial analyst estimates range anywhere from 4.4 million to 6 million iPhones shipped in third quarter. Either number would likely push Microsoft down a spot behind Apple. How strange if the top three providers of Exchange syncing, based on smart phone OS shipments, were companies other than Microsoft.
The reversal of fortune would be perhaps a psychological blow to some Microsoft Windows Mobile product managers and one big smiley face for Apple's iPhone team. More importantly, it's news Apple could seize for competitive marketing purposes. Then there will be the jibes from the Apple fanboy bloggers. After all, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer made fun of iPhone in interviews last year. Which Steve will be laughing now, Microsoft's Ballmer or Apple's Jobs?
Windows Mobile's sudden, uncertain future is more reason for Microsoft to start a mobile Manhattan Project. Mobile devices are the future of computing. Microsoft cannot afford to cede anything to Apple—or to Google, which is rapidly preparing for Android's release. The mobile operating system is suddenly getting crowded. Microsoft once worried about Linux, Palm OS and RIM. But Apple is gaining fast, and Google will further fragment the smart phone OS market. Microsoft cannot continue in business-as-usual mode. Somebody needs to yell fire, then light one under every butt that doesn't move. It's time for a project with the urgency of Internet Explorer 2, 3 and 4 during the browser wars with Netscape.
Microsoft executives harp on about choice. That's fine if businesses or consumers choose your product. The local supermarket offers lots of choice, but I can walk to the pricier convenience store. The point: Choice is good but it's not a market differentiator. People need good choices, and Windows Mobile doesn't feel like one of them right now.
Some strong advice to Microsoft's executive team: If you lose the mobile market you lose the future of computing, particularly as emerging markets skip over PCs to cell phones and cheap laptops (many of which won't run Windows Vista). Here, let me scare you with this future iPhone commercial. It's in the guise of Apple's "Get a Mac" commercials but even more condescending. "Hi, I'm an iPhone—and you're nobody."
[Please send your tips or rumors to watchtips at live.com].
Related Posts:
- Apple Storms the Smartphone OS Market, Apple Watch, Sept. 11, 2008
- Nokia and Microsoft Share Blackberry Pie, Microsoft Watch, Sept. 11, 2008
- Android Dresses Up In Chrome, Microsoft Watch, Sept. 4, 2008
- Microsoft's Pie In the Skymarket?, Microsoft Watch, Sept. 2, 2008
- Nokia-Symbian: Brilliant or Clueless?, Apple Watch, June 24, 2008
- Windows Mobiles Good, Bad and Ugly, Microsoft Watch, June 6, 2008
- Do IT Simply with Sync, Microsoft Watch, March 11, 2008
- Windows Mobile Flies the X1, Microsoft Watch, Feb 10, 2008
Comments (11)
Yeah... What he said.
Thanks Joe.
Posted by Eman | September 11, 2008 7:09 PM
I think Windows Mobile also has the problem of losing existing users. Everyone I know who has bought one, hated it and will never buy one again. I think the current battle is going to be Symbian - RIM - Apple. I think MS will just fade away. Not sure if even Google will be able to break into this 3-way. I have a blackberry, which I really like, but when I get a new phone, I'm going to insist on a browser that runs JavaScript.
Posted by smist08 | September 11, 2008 7:13 PM
That's exactly what's happening.
Posted by Partners in Grime | September 12, 2008 1:46 AM
I'm in London this week and there are huge ads for Samsung's OMNIA phone running Windoze Mobile all over the Tube. They show GPS and MSN running in a browser, plus DVD screenshots. In absolutely miniscule type (I'd guess 12pt compared with 64 or so for the main ad text) it says "screen images simulated." Well d'oh...!
Notice how most non-iPhone smartphone ads don't show actual images of the browser in action? That's because most of them suck.
The Economist magazine I read had the same ad for OMNIA but it didn't include the "simulated" disclaimer. Shame on Samsung.
Posted by pavel | September 12, 2008 5:11 AM
If you are right Joe, then this amounts to very, very bad news for Microsoft.
I get the awful feeling that they don't know how to react to the new 21st century world.
Posted by Jon T | September 12, 2008 7:09 AM
iPhone OS? Yes, it has telephony features, but its capabilities go far beyond that feature set. How about calling it what is is Joe, it's OS X. When you see the products due later this year they all will have the same "iPhone OS" but they won't be phones. Apple's strategy is OS-unity from the the smallest personal devices to 64-core servers.
Posted by Fred | September 12, 2008 4:08 PM
I dunno, I like WinMo phone.
Posted by Wes | September 13, 2008 7:41 AM
Seems like msft needs a new horse and soon! "My kingdon for a horse."
Couldn't have happened to a nicer monopolist.
Now, will Apple morph into msft when they become dominant in mobile, media, PCs, and tablets?
Posted by pk de cville | September 13, 2008 3:38 PM
is it always this simple?
Did Microsoft morph into IBM when they started dominating...? I think not - the only similarity is the dominance in a market or set of markets...
Surely Apple will change as the innovate-or-die pressure from 10 years ago fades more and more, but how exactly is anyone's guess.
Posted by whatever | September 14, 2008 12:23 PM
You write :
"The numbers look like this, and I have to fill in the gap some for Gartner, which didn't provide iPhone OS shipments for first quarter because there was no year-over-year comparison"
Look at this page available from Press releases 2008
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=688116
Posted by bax | September 15, 2008 12:14 PM
Not to sound like an apple defender here, but your comment "on new iPod colors (the one new feature)" is just wrong / misleading.
The iPods had quite a few new featuers (including the rather interesting shake feature), just putting them down as new colours shows your colours.
Posted by rand | September 16, 2008 10:22 AM