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May 16, 2007 10:35 AM

Is Vista One Step Ahead?



I couldn't tell if Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates was being passive, subtle or a disorganized speaker. But he half made an allusion yesterday that aptly sums up Microsoft's perspective on the state of Windows Vista.

Very early on in his WinHEC (Windows Hardware Engineering Conference) keynote, Bill Gates put up a slide referring back to the year 1992. He said:

"Here we've got a picture going back, and 1992 graphics interface was a very controversial thing. People thought, gee, this is too slow, too hard to develop the software, and, in a sense, they were right. The hardware actually wasn't ready. Graphics interface was a case where we got out in front, and made sure that developers, and tools, and hardware came along."

The key phrase is "got out in front" of software developers and hardware manufacturers. Gates continued:

"But by 1995, with Windows 95, the investments that we had all made in that graphics approach really started to pay off, and the breadth and richness of the applications that came out of that were far better than the character-mode applications, and that's a foundation we've had to build on ever since that time. In fact, that's the foundation that gave us the critical mass of machines for the Internet connectivity, and Web sites could really explode."

I disagree that Microsoft's investment in graphical interfaces led to the explosion of the Web. Tim Berners-Lee's first Web server and browser predates the release of Windows 3.1, in early 1992. But that topic is digression. Windows 95 also jumped ahead of developers, because Microsoft moved from a 16-bit to pseudo-32-bit operating system.

Gates didn't mention Windows Vista in context of Windows 3.1 and the GUI. But the unsaid was said by implication, in context of his whole keynote: Vista is one, or even a couple, steps ahead of current hardware and software development. I have to agree.

There's no secret where Microsoft was headed. During its 2003 developer conference, Microsoft brought out Vista, then code-name Longhorn, for demonstration. The features that were clearly already far along—mainly the WinFX components—made the final cut. There was always going to be a new graphics subsystem that would increase capabilities but also put new demands on hardware and require software changes.

In a speech given at the conference, Gates also made clear Windows Longhorn hardware design goals, by explaining what the company expected the 2006 PC configuration to be:

4-6GHz processor
2GB+ memory
1TB hard drive
Graphics processor 3X today's performance
1GB Ethernet, 54Mbps wireless networking

I would say that Microsoft hit the targets set in 2003, but software developers and hardware manufacturers haven't quite caught up. That's a message Microsoft needs to get out to its hardware partners this week at WinHEC and in October to its developers.

In my experience, most Vista problems are a result of insufficient computing power or incompatible software applications or drivers. I resolved the former by moving to the lovely Lenovo ThinkPad T60p. Vista still is a dog getting out of the gate, meaning slow bootup or wakeup, but she's a gallant race horse once moving.

Microsoft built Vista for the future, which is a commendable, even if risky, approach. It's partners are playing catch up—and many are bound to make decisions that will turn that "Wow" into "What?"

The May 15 New Yorker has a wonderful profile of esteemed Wall Street Journal columnist Walt Mossberg. The recounted exchange between Mossberg and representatives of Samsung and Sprint is a textbook case of what's wrong with the technology industry. The hardware goals—of giving little and extending more by making the consumer buy more—are shortsighted. There is in the approach no vision or understanding about the emotion people attaching to things.

Microsoft makes plenty of mistakes, but the company also is constrained by what its partners are willing to do, what they won't do or what they do wrong.

I remember when HP put VGA rather than DVI graphics cards in Media Center PCs that would be connected to DVI-capable flat-panel monitors. The analog VGA simply didn't carry the same visual bang as the digital DVI. But the whole point of a Media Center PC is the visual and audio experience. HP chose to trim margins in the wrong place.

It's easy to knock Vista because the experience isn't that much better than Windows XP. But the foundation for the Wow is there. The applications are not, and even there Microsoft shares blame with its partners. Windows Live Messenger should be a showcase for Windows Presentation Foundation and other .NET Framework capabilities. Yahoo showed off a real Vista instant messenger in January. It's now May. Where the hell is it?

With so few truly Vista applications available, shouldn't there be great opportunity for those developers that get their products out in front of the rest?

Vista's most obvious benefit is the visual experience, and this is analogous to GUI advancements in the early 1990s. Vista is one step—or two—ahead of applications and many PC configurations. It's long past time for Microsoft partners to catch up.

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Comments (25)

Paul :

"But he half made an allusion yesterday that aptly sums up Microsoft's perspective on the state of Windows Vista."

Your opinion, unsupported by fact.

"Vista still is a dog getting out of the gate, meaning slow bootup or wakeup, but she's a gallant race horse once moving."

Your opinion, unsupported by fact. My experience, for example, is quite the oppposite.

"It's easy to knock Vista because the experience isn't that much better than Windows XP."

Again your opinion, unsupported by fact. I find it significantly better.

See a trend here Joe? When it's not what is per se but rather what you think, make that clear. When it's what is, then support that via fact from recognized experts. It's called journalism 001.

Richard :

Paul, *everything* here boils down to opinions. I don't know what you mean by "unsupported by fact."

Even "recognized experts" can only give opinions based on their personal experiences. In this respect, Joe's opinion is perfectly valid, and he's also one of those "recognized experts."

(As an aside, what makes for a "recognized expert?")

There is nothing "factual" about whether Vista offers a better experience than XP. We can only look at the opinions published here and elsewhere. Joe's opinion, my opinion, your opinion, and the opinions of other commenters.

For the record, I don't see a big difference between Vista and XP in terms of user experience. I like the prettier interface but everything else in Vista is just marginally better than XP. This is my opinion.

mgo :

So, Vista is designed for hardware that doesn't exist today, eh? That means they put a product out there that is guaranteed to disappoint today’s computer users. -makes no sense to me..

Richard :

Joe, I have to disagree with you on one point. Bill Gates was sort of correct when he said the proliferation of GUI-based PCs made it possible for the Web's expansion. Even though browsers predate Windows, if the PC world at large had stuck with MS-DOS, we would have seen a slower adoption of the graphical Web.

Of course, Bill Gates never foresaw the coming of the WWW, so he can't really take any credit for the Web's expansion. It was really just a fortunate happenstance...

Paul :


I'm going to agree with your basic premise, but cast it in a different light. There are two fundamental things that make Vista different over XP. These are the areas, I believe, that Gates was alluding to with the 'out in front' statement.


1) DRM

DRM as in Digital Rights Management and not DRM as in don't copy that DVD. Digital Rights Management is a much broader subject matter than they current hot topic debate. Lawyers need DRM to protect sensitive legal documents. Script writings and production companies need DRM to protect the season ending cliff hanger on the hot TV show. Medical personal need DRM to ensure appropriate and responsible access to private information and finally corporate american needs DRM to restrict access to sensitive documents.

The plumbing in Vista and Windows Server 2008 that Microsoft spent thier strongest minds on (Larry Osterman, Raymond Chen, etc...) was this complex plumbing. The protect process, channalized audio and video, the new driver model and the trusted installer as a larger system enable some pretty amazing technologies that have nothing to do with MP3 -vs- WMA or DVD -vs- Johan.

2:) Windows Anywhere

The Microsoft vision is Windows anywhere, anytime, anyplace. That's a broad statement. Vista and Windows Server 2008 enable this vision. With technologies like ASP.NET adaptive rendering, xml based windows applications (XAML) and a cross browser runtime (WPF/e) Microsoft is one step closer to delivering this vision. Again, it's all about the plumbing in Vista. These subsystem (and stuff I didn't mention like per app publication in Terminal Services) all combined together with technologies like XBox 360 ans Zune provide the platform to enable the scenario of write a Windows application that runs on my TV. Or edit a Word document over the phone.

I look at where Microsoft is going and the crisis that is the FOSS community and I just laugh. Microsoft is slowly and methodically delivering technologies that are going to drive computing in the 21st century. I just don't see FOSS doing anything to compete with what's going to happen tomorrow. I see alot of effort around competing with what is happening today; but todays competition is irrelevant.

Ballmer once brushed FOSS away in a interview with a seemingly flippant statement to the effect of "they can't compete with us because they have no centralized vision". It wasn't a flippant statement. It was the truth. Microsoft as a corporation is dominated by one overwhelming vision - Windows Anywhere, Anytime, Any Device. The have the bankroll and infrastructure to deliver on this vision and just like that last Microsoft vision (Windows in every home) they will deliver.

Marlon Smith :

I agree with you on Vista being far out in front of partners and developers. I'm a developer and only recently have I had decent tools (Expression Blend) for WPF, not to mention the lack of guidance and training. Hopfully MS turns that around soon, there are signs that they are but still a little late.

LarryR :

Tell me again why anyone should pay attention to the stuff Bill Gates mutters? The Longhorn/Vista project was a total fiasco when Gates, Mr. Chief Software Architect, was running it. It took years and billions of dollars to fix the mess he left when El Jefe graciously "retired" from his day to day activities at Microsoft. The man has a tin ear when it comes to picking technology winners (WebTV, Bob, MSN, Xbox, etc.), and about the only things he does well is steal/buy the work of others, and give away his ill-gotten fortune.

LarryR :

Paul, the battery in your SPOT watch is running low. BTW, how much does MSFT pay these days for web shills?

Paul :


I get paid $100,000.00 for every positive post I write. You can too if you forward this post to 5 people.

Here's how it works. OK, Read this carefully. Get a printout of this information, if you like, so you can easily refer to it as often as needed.

INSTRUCTIONS:

1. Get a pro Microsoft blog and write a post with the following:

"I'm a Microsoft Shill. Please add my name to your list". This creates a service out of this money making system and thus making it completely legal. You are not just randomly sending a blog post to someone, you are posting factual information for a legitimate service. Make sure you include your name and address. I assure you that, again, this is completely legal! For a neat little twist, also write what FOSS blog you just read like: "hehe i sAw YoU On /. LOLERSKATEZ", Just to add a little fun! This is all about having fun and making money at the same time!

2. Now copy the link to the post and login to your PayPal account. PayPal your link and $2.00 to each name on the list below. (no e-checks please) The sending of the link will ensure your blog post will get read. THIS STEP IS IMPORTANT!!

3. Now listen carefully, here's where you get YOUR MONEY COMING TO YOUR PAYPAL. Look at the list of five people; remove the first name from position one and move everyone on the list up slot one on the list. Position 2 name will now move to the position 1 slot, position 3 will now become position 2, 4 will be be 3, 5 wil be 4. Now put your name, blog website, AND PAYPAL EMAIL ADDRESS in position 5, the bottom position on the list.

4. Now upload this updated file to as many pro FOSS and anti-Microsoft websites, blogs, forums and message boards as possible. Give a catchy description of the file so it gets noticed!! Such as: "NEED FAST CASH?, BILL GATES WILL GIVE IT TO YOU!" or "NO MORE DEBTS FOR ME THANKS TO MR. GATES??", etc. And the more uploads, the more money you will make, and of course, the more money the others on the list will make too.

LET'S ALL TAKE CARE OF EACH OTHER BY BEING HONEST AND BY PUTTING FORTH 120 PERCENT INTO THIS PROFITABLE & AMAZING SYSTEM!!!

You'll reap the benefits, believe me!!! Set a goal for the number of total uploads you'll post, such as 15-20 postings a day or more! Always have a goal in mind!!!

5. And this is the step I like. JUST SIT BACK AND ENJOY LIFE BECAUSE CASH IS ON ITS THE WAY!! Expect to see a little money start to trickle in around 2 weeks, but AT ABOUT WEEKS 3 & 4, THE MONEY STORM WILL HIT YOUR MAILBOX!! All you have to do is take it out of the mailbox and try not to scream too loud (outside anyway) when you realize YOU HIT THE BIG TIME AT LAST!!

6. So go PAY OFF YOUR BILLS AND DEBTS and then get that something special you always wanted or buy that special person in your life (or the one you want in your life) a gift they'll never forget. ENJOY LIFE!

[ Name List Removed by (BillG@Microsoft.com) ] WTF are you doing Paul teaching the world how I *really* got rich!

*** AGAIN, HONESTY IS THE BEST THING WE HAVE GOING FOR US ON THIS PLAN. ***

Paul :

"Paul, *everything* here boils down to opinions. I don't know what you mean by "unsupported by fact."

I think my meaning is very clear. When it's merely opinion, it should be so noted.

Mike :

Vista may have the "potential for wow", but both Linux and Macintosh are already delivering "wow" and have been for a while. In fact, on Linux full 3D hardware acceleration for the entire desktop is pretty much standard now, something not even Macintosh devliers. And, typical of Microsoft's "brute force" approach, they require applications to be rewritten extensively, while Linux apps take advantage of the new features automatically.

Have a look at what works on Linux distros: http://youtube.com/results?search_query=beryl

Sorry, but I think Vista is still at least one step behind.

PolarUpgarde :

Yeah, the situation with Vista ss a lot like the leap imposed by Windows 95.

But there are these significant differences:

1) The marketplace has now matured and the opportunity cost of the Vista leap exceeds that of sticking with the current OS for many users, which was not the case in 1995. Because users are reluctant to move, software and device drivers will be less quickly evolved for Vista than for Windows 95;

2) Vista is taking the great leap at the end of the 32-bit Windows era, whereas Windows 95 took its leap at the beginning of the Windows 32-bit evolution. What this means for developers and hardware makers is that a huge development effort for 32-bit Vista cannot be amortized over several Windows releases, as MS itself has said that they will issue no more 32-bit OSs after 2008;

3) There are now other major competitors to consumer dollars, including the cost of the HDTV transition, the cost of fast Internet service, iPods, sundry other gadgets, AND an emerging Windows alternative in the Intel-Macs;

4) Vista is more software incompatible with long-established entrenched apps than was Windows 95, and it appears that this particular deficiency will never be overcome;

5) Vista incorporates a user-hostile DRM layer that offers no plus to the end user, but has the potential to both slow down and lock down the end user.

Byron :

PloarUpgarde said
{Vista is taking the great leap at the end of the 32-bit Windows era, whereas Windows 95 took its leap at the beginning of the Windows 32-bit evolution. What this means for developers and hardware makers is that a huge development effort for 32-bit Vista cannot be amortized over several Windows releases, as MS itself has said that they will issue no more 32-bit OSs after 2008;}

Perhaps you dont understand - Vista is REALLY a 64-bit OS. Vista is taking a leap at the beginning of the Windows 64-bit evolution... In five years sit and look back, and you will see it was Vista that commoditised 64-bit and drove 64-bit application development & adoption.(SIC)

PolarUpgrade :

Byron wrongly stated that "Vista is REALLY a 64-bit OS"

No, Byron, only the 64-bit version of Vista is 64-bit. Consumer Vista as most people will buy it is 32-bit Therein lies the problem. There's little economic payback in supporting 32-bit Vista because it will be outmoded in a few years, nixing the costs to develop for it.

What exacerbates this bottomless pit of zero-return-on-investment situation of 32-bit Vista is precisely the fact that 64-bit Vista ALREADY exists, which underscores the waste of time that 32-bit Vista is--especially in terms of device drivers for older devices.

David :

Wow Paul, your first post was simply depressing...

I actually agree with your analysis, and that what makes is so sad. I dont believe Microsoft have the vision to take computing forward in any way other than 'Your Potential, Our Profit'

They have missed the boat more than once with major computing trends, carry on about how they spend 7b on R&D, yet have nothing to show for it, and really dont play fair.

FOSS couldn't find their ass with both their hands, but if MS are the future, we are all truly screwed...

David :

Wow Paul, that was the most depressing read I've had in a while...

While I agree with your analysis, I think its just sad to think that the future of computing lies with Microsoft. They have missed more than 1 major computing trend, spend 7B on R&D with nothing to show for it, and are singularly focused on "Your Potential, Out Profit".

I agree FOSS cant find the lightswitch, but the future of computing in the hands of Microsoft, I will be working doubly hard to avoid any thing remotely Microsoft in my home...

as for Vista being one step ahead? ahead of what?

George :

"Perhaps you dont understand - Vista is REALLY a 64-bit OS."

Vista merely achieves what most other major operating systems achieved several years ago: it runs natively in 64 bit mode. So, Microsoft has merely caught up.

"I agree FOSS cant find the lightswitch,"

Linux is ahead of Windows, both in terms of desktop and server functionality, and has been for years. For example, 64 bit Linux has been in production use for several years no, and Linux has had features such as transactioned file systems, desktop graphics acceleration, transparency, desktop search, capabilities, sandboxing, virtual servers, etc. since before Windows, often years earlier.

Linux used to have two disadvantages: (1) it was ugly, and (2) it needed to be installed by the end user while Windows came pre-installed. In terms of looks, Linux is up to Windows standards now. And Linux has become so easy to install that end user installation isn't an issue anymore.

"but the future of computing in the hands of Microsoft"

If the future of computing is in the hands of Microsoft, it's because of monopolistic business practices; the company has made few technical contributions that are relevant to current desktop systems.

Angel Matos :

Dear Folks,

Just a quick thought, while vista (& future MS-OSs) may succeed in the IT arena due to improved security, etc. However, on the home front, I believe that MS will find that a whole lot of folks are not going to continue upgrading their systems just to keep MS happy. Guess what, there are folks that don't want to give up W98 cause they can do what they need to do with 98; no more power needed.

I think the reason MS is pissing in the weeds with its suit against Linux, is because it is realizing this fact. The reality is that the current Linux releases are just as stable and driver rich as XP is/was, they support somethings, but not others; didn't folks bitch about this in XP, are they not bitching about this in vista now. Yet, I hear may Doze experts piss on Linux because it doesn't have this or that driver, or it did or didn't install on machine X or Y. Well, I remember multiple reviews saying the same thing about this or that version of Doze. One reviewer went so far as to knock Linux by telling us how he had to download FireFox, and god forbid - he had to type his fingers to a numb by having to download Adobe's Flash. Gee, don't you have to do the same in XP and vista.

BUT, the big factor that Linux has going for it, is that it is NOT demanding that the people make yet ANOTHER hardware jump. The opposite, Linux (even w/Beyrl) zooms on machines that choak on vista. The fact is that Linux will run on machines that can't even boot vista. If you consider that there is a major 'computer-divide' in this country already, MS continuing to push the tech requirements is not a good thing for the home front.

Well it is possible that when I paying $800 for a full copy of the revista (super ed.) I'll get a coupon for a free computer with a 1086 chip, 16GB mem, 10TB HD, 6GB video card, and a full deluxe KORG music synth for a sound card.

MS can keep pushing the envelope, it doesn't mean that this is what the home folk need or want. I think they are going to have to decide if they want to be in the home front, or give it over to Linux & Apple. I mean, how do you distribute four versions of vista - none of which is satisfactory to the home user, and the version that does is too expensive even for the well off - to upgrade 4 or 5 home machines.

You say that MS partners are at fault because THEY did not meet MS's tech spec/expectations for 2006, well the question is - even if the hardware existed, could vendors sell it at a price the folks are willing to pay. From my experience, the average home folk consider 600-800 beans the sweet spot for a home computer. So if the MS 2006 system existed, could it meet the sweet spot, I don't think so. I think many of the hardware makers have cut the bone down as close as possible - they have to pay for RnD just like MS has to pay for theirs, but MS's OS pricing policy seems to be asking for more of the pie with vista, and it is clear that the parts vendors can't, and I'm not sure the machine vendors can take the drain much longer either. We are down to 2 Video card mfg, what - 4 HD mfg, etc. How many companies have died via bone skinning over the years.

Do you think Dell is willing to hustle ubuntu cause they love Linux and hate MS - nope, they're doing it cause a buck is a buck. Don't be surprised if we see vista2 earlier than expected with a restructured version scheme and a more sane pricing scheme, cause if folk aren't 'self-trained' at home to operate Doze, then why should Corps be stuck with it. Why shouldn't they use a version of Linux.

BTW - does anyone know if Dell still has to pay MS a license fee on a machine that mounts ubuntu instead of vista.

a.

Angel Matos :

Dear Folks,

Just a quick thought, while vista (& future MS-OSs) may succeed in the IT arena due to improved security, etc. However, on the home front, I believe that MS will find that a whole lot of folks are not going to continue upgrading their systems just to keep MS happy. Guess what, there are folks that don't want to give up W98 cause they can do what they need to do with 98; no more power needed.

I think the reason MS is pissing in the weeds with its suit against Linux, is because it is realizing this fact. The reality is that the current Linux releases are just as stable and driver rich as XP is/was, they support somethings, but not others; didn't folks bitch about this in XP, are they not bitching about this in vista now. Yet, I hear may Doze experts piss on Linux because it doesn't have this or that driver, or it did or didn't install on machine X or Y. Well, I remember multiple reviews saying the same thing about this or that version of Doze. One reviewer went so far as to knock Linux by telling us how he had to download FireFox, and god forbid - he had to type his fingers to a numb by having to download Adobe's Flash. Gee, don't you have to do the same in XP and vista.

BUT, the big factor that Linux has going for it, is that it is NOT demanding that the people make yet ANOTHER hardware jump. The opposite, Linux (even w/Beyrl) zooms on machines that choak on vista. The fact is that Linux will run on machines that can't even boot vista. If you consider that there is a major 'computer-divide' in this country already, MS continuing to push the tech requirements is not a good thing for the home front.

Well it is possible that when I paying $800 for a full copy of the revista (super ed.) I'll get a coupon for a free computer with a 1086 chip, 16GB mem, 10TB HD, 6GB video card, and a full deluxe KORG music synth for a sound card.

MS can keep pushing the envelope, it doesn't mean that this is what the home folk need or want. I think they are going to have to decide if they want to be in the home front, or give it over to Linux & Apple. I mean, how do you distribute four versions of vista - none of which is satisfactory to the home user, and the version that does is too expensive even for the well off - to upgrade 4 or 5 home machines.

You say that MS partners are at fault because THEY did not meet MS's tech spec/expectations for 2006, well the question is - even if the hardware existed, could vendors sell it at a price the folks are willing to pay. From my experience, the average home folk consider 600-800 beans the sweet spot for a home computer. So if the MS 2006 system existed, could it meet the sweet spot, I don't think so. I think many of the hardware makers have cut the bone down as close as possible - they have to pay for RnD just like MS has to pay for theirs, but MS's OS pricing policy seems to be asking for more of the pie with vista, and it is clear that the parts vendors can't, and I'm not sure the machine vendors can take the drain much longer either. We are down to 2 Video card mfg, what - 4 HD mfg, etc. How many companies have died via bone skinning over the years.

Do you think Dell is willing to hustle ubuntu cause they love Linux and hate MS - nope, they're doing it cause a buck is a buck. Don't be surprised if we see vista2 earlier than expected with a restructured version scheme and a more sane pricing scheme, cause if folk aren't 'self-trained' at home to operate Doze, then why should Corps be stuck with it. Why shouldn't they use a version of Linux.

BTW - does anyone know if Dell still has to pay MS a license fee on a machine that mounts ubuntu instead of vista.

a.

Keith :

We are gather here to argue over some unfounded facts by a poor journalist

Save our bandwidth for other usage

Keith :

We are gather here to argue over some unfounded facts by a poor journalist

Save our bandwidth for other usage

Richard :

Here's an easy way to prove that the version of Vista most people will be buying is 32-bits:

Install it on a PC with 4GB of RAM. Vista will only recognize 3GB! The last GB will be a total waste. Why? Because of the 32-bit address limitation.

If you want to utilize more than 4GB of RAM, you will need to install 64-bit Vista. The problem here is that there are far fewer 64-bit drivers available.

Marco :

Keith:It's not my habit to defend poor and undefended journalists, but in this case, I have found in this blog excellent ideas from the people who post here (better than in some other blogs), thus something has had to attract these people and...I am supposing that perhaps it could be Joe.

Faith :

MS may be pushing us into the future but my teens starting college will not be able to afford the cost of all the new advances when they need them. I could purchase more Vista software for their current computers but am now wondering if I should since it seems we are moving out of the 32-bit and into the 64...It just seems like a waste of money to buy the software for now just to have to change it so soon--along with quite a few other things I now have...Don't get me wrong, I love the direction--faster, smarter, better(hopefully) BUT with 5 children, two in college and the others wanting to keep up, at this point, I am more concerned with the $$ amount and wondering if in a short time the schools where my children attend will all require the "jump"--this could be an expensive next few years on the homefront if we want to keep up--money I could take my family on a trip on or .....

few :

answer : No, Vista is not one step ahead.

It's the shittiest OS on earth. M$ is a dead man walking. and silly Ballmer eat eggs these days. Apple goes from 3,5 to 7% market share, and millions of deceived windows users continue to switch to Mac with a smile on their face...

and i never heard of a leopard user downgrade to tiger...

bye bye Vista Pro Premium Family Rebirth NT Extended Upgraded Exodus MSDOS Go Go Downgrade Rubbish RePack

Oh, I love to hate this company

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