Google Search Share Surges, Live Languishes
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News Analysis. Microsoft has good reasons to want to buy search share. The Google monopoly is fast emerging. |
Google's share of U.S. searches punched past the 60 percent barrier in April, according to ComScore data released today. The other four top search services, including Microsoft, lost share.
Google gained 1.8 percent search share between March and April. I suppose it could be coincidence that, combined, share for the other four declined 1.8 percent. Biggest loser among the top five: Yahoo, with a decline of 0.9 percent.
Microsoft has spent all of 2008 below 10 percent, with share declining every single month. Unless there is reversal, the trend would put Microsoft below 9 percent share for May. In that context, yesterday's cashback announcement, where Microsoft pays users for goods purchased through Live Search, is an important business strategy.
Consistent declines for both Microsoft and Yahoo raise questions about the unsolicited takeover bid. In January, Microsoft and Yahoo had combined search share of 32 percent compared with 58.5 percent for Google. In April, the two combined was 29.5 percent. For perspective, Combined share for November was 32.6 percent; 34.6 percent in September; and 35.8 percent in July.
Based on ComScore data since summer 2007, I must conclude that something negatively affected Microsoft and Yahoo search share. Google improvements could be one reason, but Microsoft's unsolicited bid of Yahoo is the more likely influencer. Yahoo declines have accelerated since the merger announcement.
Competitively, Yahoo losses are disastrous for Microsoft. Since January, Google gained 3.5 percent in search share, while Yahoo search share dropped 1.8 percent (Editor's note: The data changes represent actual changes in search share, not percentages of increase or decrease.) Since Microsoft's search share is also declining, somebody else is picking up what Yahoo loses. Based on the data, Google benefits.
I've repeatedly said from the start that Microsoft's unsolicited bid would harm Yahoo to the benefit of Google. The hostile takeover was a huge distraction, both for Yahoo and its customers. Microsoft should know about the hugely negative effects of distraction, because of its U.S. antitrust case. Competitively, Microsoft lost its way in late 1999 through at least late 2002 because of the antitrust distraction.
Even if Microsoft still bought Yahoo or just its search business, the search share combination is less valuable today than it was in January. Blame belongs more to Microsoft than Yahoo, methinks. Caveat: The ComScore data is just for the United States, which granted is a huge search market.
Some additional April search data from ComScore:
- Americans conducted 10.6 billion search queries
- Overall search queries declined 2 percent from March
- Google search queries increased by 1 percent, to 6.5 billion
- Microsoft/Live search queries declined 5 percent
- Facebook search queries increased 5 percent
- In the Microsoft All Other category, search queries increased 3 percent, presumably in part because of Facebook
Something else, and this reflects on Google's reach: Among the top 50 Web properties, Google had 8.5 billion searches compared with 2.3 billion for Yahoo and 1 billion for Microsoft. The point: Microsoft desperately needs to make Live Search available more places.
Comments (11)
In the future can your graphs go left to right?
To me that just makes more sense.
Posted by Bob Jones | May 22, 2008 3:35 PM
and the Cycle continues. Microsoft, you need to do something, FAST! Windows Live Search is a FAILURE, its not worthy of even being visited. Your algorithms are messed up and are delivering in accurate text results.
Get Yahoo!'s search technology now or create a miracle! Not to mention Windows Live Search web page loads waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay slower than Google is enough to stay away from it. I am going to go out on a limb and say it, Windows Live Search is the worst Microsoft Product/Service.
Posted by Andre Da Costa | May 22, 2008 3:48 PM
Joe,
I would be really interested to see how the shift in share to Google correlates with iPhone activations. It's tight integration with the iPhone makes using a different search engine a non-starter and with it's growth rate, it has to be impacting search share. I'd be really curious if comScore parses the data by client.
Posted by Tom Aquinas | May 22, 2008 3:59 PM
Isn't the Yahoo deal the one thing Ballmer said he's put "a lot of personal thought" into?
Would somebody check and see what else Ballmer's been thinking about? And while you're at it, could you check to see if he's even thinking? Or is he just saying he's been thinking?
Posted by portuno | May 22, 2008 4:23 PM
Andre -
I really don't think algorithms have anything to do with it ... I believe Microsoft's problem is that the Microsoft brand is tarnished ... anti-trust issues, anti-OSS issues, patent-threat issues, and just the general sense that Microsoft only cares about the almighty buck, damn it's customers.
Yes, business is about making money, but it is the perception of many that Microsoft's brand of doing business is far beyond cut-throat, and people don't care for that.
Anyway, the point is that I won't use Microsoft Search because I despise the company, and I know I'm not alone. Algorithms are NOT in the picture.
Bill
Posted by Joe7pak | May 22, 2008 5:21 PM
The common man, that is not important when MS sign
contracts or partnerships with other businesses (example:Intel), well, he will be killing to MS.
Posted by Marco | May 22, 2008 6:23 PM
I'd have to second Joe7pak there - nobody's using Microsoft's search to know or care whether the algorithms are great or not.
Google's the better brand, the better search verb and everyone knows that Google's search is very good indeed - whether it's actually the best doesn't really matter.
Microsoft's IE7 now has a 45% market share at last count, that's 45% of web using PC's that have had their default search box changed to Live Search.
Any invalid URL typed into IE7 classifies as a Live Search. (sneakily even if you changed your search provider)
Most vanilla windows boxes have their default home page set to msn, complete with it's live search box in the corner.
...and yet their search share keeps shrinking.
Posted by whatever | May 22, 2008 7:42 PM
I think Live Search does yield good results as it has given me proper results, but the big thing Microsoft has confused itself with the LIVE branding. Anything in the internet cloud is termed as LIVE for Microsoft which confuses the users a lot. I may think I would be able to view all of the Microsoft's LIVE services if I go to live(dot)com, but what I get is a simple search page and so where does Messenger,Windows Live Mail all fit in...hmm...
Posted by Chaks | May 22, 2008 11:47 PM
They have done NOTHING outside the geek press to promote Live Search. Epic:Fail
Posted by Geo | May 23, 2008 12:24 AM
Joe, why doesn't Clint Boulton have a link to Microsoft Watch on Google Watch's top nav bar? Has Microsoft become that irrelevant?
Posted by Gerardo Tasistro | May 23, 2008 10:11 AM
Geo :
They have done NOTHING outside the geek press to promote Live Search. Epic:Fail
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So should we assume Live Search is another non-strategy?
Let's go Ozzie. Give it up. Your silence is embarrassing for geeks everywhere. What other non-strategies are in that non-pipeline?
Posted by portuno | May 25, 2008 1:25 PM